Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Skipalongcassidy]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Certain posters should understand that I have put them on ignore, not necessarily because of this topic, and do not see their posts, so they should not expect a response if they quote me.

That is very adult of you... Also, Hamas has Israel on ignore and Israel has Hamas on ignore and you can see how that is working for them.  You must be a democrat...

[Longwood50]

On 10/13/2023 at 8:35 AM, ThaiFelix said:

One thing for sure is Israel will end up stealing more land from the Palestinians

Wars have consequences.  The USA has regions that include 
Mexico ceded 55 percent of its territory, including the present-day states California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, and parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming.

 

As to the rightful owners of the land it only depends on what date you arbitrarily choose to define as the rightful owners.  The Jews occupied that land 2,500 years before Christ.  They did so until "war" changed that with the Romans leveling the country.  The country mostly abandoned. 

In 1517 the Ottomans conquered the region. The British took control in 1917 and that lasted until 1948 when the UN partitioned the area to form the current country of Israel. 

So who is the "rightful" owner.  All of these are world events that changed the map.  Hamas started this conflict.  It may well be that the loss of territory results.  

Actions have consequences. 

[placnx]

10 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I noticed that you don't capitalize Israel or Zionist but that you do capitalize Palestinian. Can you explain your disrespect for the world's one Jewish state (when there are so many Islamic ones) and the world's only liberation / political movement of self determination for the Jewish people? Do you not recognize Israel's right to exist? I've already gleaned that you're no fan of Israel defending itself from terrorists.

Why don't you and the ultra-Zionists recognize the Palestinians and their human rights? The narrative ca 1950 was that the oppressed new arrivals were making the desert bloom in a land devoid of people. Where was the respect for Palestinians then?

 

Anyone who questions Israel's policies toward Palestinians gets flogged with the "right to exist" line as though that was existential. At this point it's the Palestinians right to exist which is the real question.

[Morch]

14 hours ago, placnx said:

The point of evoking the principal Arab Revolt against the Ottomans was that there were serious political aspirations of Arab nationalism, which you may know were thwarted by the British et al in betrayal of promises made in return for their service against the Ottomans.

 

Not nitpicking, but replying to one of your arguments - that people were politically indifferent, so no need for a state of their own. Palestinians were not indifferent then and are not now.

 

Also the Wiki on the 1936-39 Arab Revolt in Palestine shows that the Palestinians attempted to resist Jewish colonisation, but were unable to sustain their struggle in the face of brutal suppression by Wingate's forces in particular.

The revolt you go on about was not specifically, or mainly a Palestinian thing. Identifying as part of a greater Arab nation is not quite what we discussed. So not only nitpicking, but obfuscating as well.

 

Regardless of the deflection above, my argument remains that the Palestinians did not pursue any of these supposed goals in a constructive manner. Almost all of their choices were bad ones. Almost all of their leaders incompetent, over reaching, or unrealistic.

 

You can put up whichever revisionist historical narrative you like, it won't change basic facts.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

Why don't you and the ultra-Zionists recognize the Palestinians and their human rights? The narrative ca 1950 was that the oppressed new arrivals were making the desert bloom in a land devoid of people. Where was the respect for Palestinians then?

 

Anyone who questions Israel's policies toward Palestinians gets flogged with the "right to exist" line as though that was existential. At this point it's the Palestinians right to exist which is the real question.

Where did you see JT deny Palestinians exist, have rights etc.? And what are (or whom are) 'ultra-Zionists'? 

 

If you wish to compare national narratives of the past, you'll find the same denials of rights, hatred and whatnot among those of the Palestinian side. That you focus on the Israelis doesn't mean the Palestinians were open to peace, harmony or co-existence. Newly minted countries often display a more nationalistic narrative. Nothing surprising about that.

 

The Palestinians can take charge of their lives, produce a functioning leadership and make some tough decisions. You do not wish to acknowledge the issue, hence you blame Israel alone, and refuse to admit facts.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's your opinion and not supported by history. They certainly did want a state of their own.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan–United_Kingdom_relations

During the Arab–Israeli War of 1948, Britain secretly favored a total Jordanian invasion of West Bank hoping to wipe out the possible creation of a Palestinian state led by Amin al-Husseini. The invasion was a success which and secured British influence within Transjordan.

Palestine has been under self-rule for 15-20 years and gets tons of money, what's stopping them?

[Yellowtail]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Certain posters should understand that I have put them on ignore, not necessarily because of this topic, and do not see their posts, so they should not expect a response if they quote me.

That's okay, you never really respond to what's actually said anyways...

[Morch]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Certain posters should understand that I have put them on ignore, not necessarily because of this topic, and do not see their posts, so they should not expect a response if they quote me.

It's an open, public forum. People can reply to whatever.

Whether you answer, (pretend to) ignore or deflect is immaterial.

 

 

[transam]

Just now, Morch said:

It's an open, public forum. People can reply to whatever.

Whether you answer, (pretend to) ignore or deflect is immaterial.

 

 

Agreed, some here "fear" a response and so put them on ignore.....😉

[Nick Carter icp]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Certain posters should understand that I have put them on ignore, not necessarily because of this topic, and do not see their posts, so they should not expect a response if they quote me.

But you do click on the post to see what they said to you .

You can put people on ignore , but that doesn't mean that they cannot reply to a point you made in a post 

[Morch]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's your opinion and not supported by history. They certainly did want a state of their own.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan–United_Kingdom_relations

During the Arab–Israeli War of 1948, Britain secretly favored a total Jordanian invasion of West Bank hoping to wipe out the possible creation of a Palestinian state led by Amin al-Husseini. The invasion was a success which and secured British influence within Transjordan.

How is this supposed to counter my comments? If anything, it the other way around. Goes back to demonstrate that the Palestinians repeatedly fail to grasp geo-political situations, choose bad leaders, and the wrong allies. Guess you'll blame this on Israel as well?

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, transam said:

Agreed, some here "fear" a response and so put them on ignore.....😉

Yeah, they want to continue to spew their hatred and or idiocy without having to support what they say. 

 

[Morch]

12 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Which is why the Egyptian president has opted to not let Gazans flee to the Sinai. He said in his speech that if he did, the resistance would move to the Sinai and israel would then be attacking Egypt.

He has a valid point, unfortunately.

He also said that israel could resettle non Hamas Gazans in the israeli Negev desert, but IMO that will never happen as israel wants Palestinians gone, not relocated but still in israel.

 

Apparently there are about 3 million Palestinians in Jordan, so israel may find itself fighting on yet another front, as they are plenty riled about Gaza, just as in Algeria, India, Iraq, Indonesia etc.

 

Seems to me that israelis may find themselves at risk in many parts of the world now. They may solve the "Gaza" problem, but have a much larger problem worldwide.

Muslims are everywhere, and are not ignoring it.

Egypt got a long history with the Muslim Brotherhood, so obviously they are not interested in opening a branch at home. They are also well aware that the Palestinians could not be trusted to keep the peace. More importantly, Egypt is poor, and the notion of adding a couple million mouths is not a popular one.

 

Israel and Egypt have been cooperating for some years now crushing IS & Co. in the Sinai Peninsula. This involved IAF sorties and strikes as well. So it's not so much about Israel attacking terrorists within Egypt, but rather who the terrorists are. Egypt just don't want to be potentially put in a bad light vs. the Arab World.

 

No one seriously expects Israel to re-settle the Gazans within Israeli borders. Other than, perhaps, some far left loons. Certainly not post 7/10.

 

If you think the Jordanian King got any interest in starting a war with Israel, or even allowing hostilities, you're way off mark. More like wishful thinking, perhaps. If the King was overthrown, there would be trouble - but that would again be a regional issue rather than simply an Israeli one. As usual, more complicated than you present or grasp.

 

 

[placnx]

4 hours ago, Morch said:

Where did you see JT deny Palestinians exist, have rights etc.? And what are (or whom are) 'ultra-Zionists'? 

 

If you wish to compare national narratives of the past, you'll find the same denials of rights, hatred and whatnot among those of the Palestinian side. That you focus on the Israelis doesn't mean the Palestinians were open to peace, harmony or co-existence. Newly minted countries often display a more nationalistic narrative. Nothing surprising about that.

 

The Palestinians can take charge of their lives, produce a functioning leadership and make some tough decisions. You do not wish to acknowledge the issue, hence you blame Israel alone, and refuse to admit facts.

 

 

They had a potential leader in Marwan Barghouti after the failed Oslo Accords, but he's been locked up for some time. I don't know whether he would be relevant any more, now age 64, but Mandela was locked up for 28 years and became preident at age 75. Marwan also has a very articulate cousin, Mustafa Barghouti, who is also involved in politics.

 

Ultra-Zionists believe that to all belongs to them, including Gaza and the West Bank, maybe Sinai, too, and part of Jordan??? No need the compensate for stolen land since it already belongs to them.

[placeholder]

On 10/20/2023 at 3:55 PM, transam said:

Look, you don't Jew's, that's up to you, but don't tell me folk murder and chop up kids because of their situation, that is rollox........Stop making excuses for these terrorists, they come from the same mold as ISIS, kill anything that they don't like...........

And don't guess about me, you haven't got a clue............😒

I'm going to go out on a limb here and and guess that this "Look, you don't Jew's, that's up to you"  is an accusation of anti-semitism.

 

If I'm right, then most likely what I'm seeing here is a case of doublethink. When Jewish people in the diaspora are murdered as a way of showing hatred for Israel, such actions are quite rightly denounced. After all, Israel is a country, not a religion, and just because a person happens to be Jewish in no way means that they are responsible for Israeli policy. Israel does not speak for all Jews.  But when Israel is criticized for its policies, that is somehow anti-Semitic. Try to keep in mind that Israel is a country, not a religion, and just because its leaders and most of its populace are Jewish, that doesn't mean that criticism of Israel is anti-Semitic. Mort Sahl once told a joke about an actor with politically unpopular views that it was possible to dislike her for herself. It's equally possible to dislike Israeli policy for itself.

 

As for the terrorist bit. we heard the same judgements pronounced against various ethnic groups that revolted against  oppressive regimes.   And it's true. Members of those communities committed horrible acts. That doesn't excuse what they did but denying that the various regimes didn't create the toxic conditions for such people to flourish is just self-righteous denialism.

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and and guess that this "Look, you don't Jew's, that's up to you"  is an accusation of anti-semitism.

 

If I'm right, then most likely what I'm seeing here is a case of doublethink. When Jewish people in the diaspora are murdered as a way of showing hatred for Israel, such actions are quite rightly denounced. After all, Israel is a country, not a religion, and just because a person happens to be Jewish in no way means that they are responsible for Israeli policy. Israel does not speak for all Jews.  But when Israel is criticized for its policies, that is somehow anti-Semitic. Try to keep in mind that Israel is a country, not a religion, and just because its leaders and most of its populace are Jewish, that doesn't mean that criticism of Israel is anti-Semitic. Mort Sahl once told a joke about an actor with politically unpopular views that it was possible to dislike her for herself. It's equally possible to dislike Israeli policy for itself.

 

As for the terrorist bit. we heard the same judgements pronounced against various ethnic groups that revolted against  oppressive regimes.   And it's true. Members of those communities committed horrible acts. That doesn't excuse what they did but denying that the various regimes didn't create the toxic conditions for such people to flourish is just self-righteous denialism.

You say: That doesn't excuse what they did but denying that the various regimes didn't create the toxic conditions for such people to flourish is just self-righteous denialism.

 

You say it doesn't excuse it, but then go on to say it does excuse it. 

 

Palestine has been ruling itself for 15-20 years. What "toxic conditions" have caused these people to videotape themselves laughing while they kill and burn babies and gang-rape children? 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

16 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

You say: That doesn't excuse what they did but denying that the various regimes didn't create the toxic conditions for such people to flourish is just self-righteous denialism.

 

You say it doesn't excuse it, but then go on to say it does excuse it. 

 

Palestine has been ruling itself for 15-20 years. What "toxic conditions" have caused these people to videotape themselves laughing while they kill and burn babies and gang-rape children? 

 

Israel has blockaded Gaza since Hamas came to power 16 years ago. That has made economic development virtually impossible.

As for the West Bank, it's laughable that you can describe the situation for Palestinians there as self-rule given all the restrictions that Israel has imposed.

[Morch]

50 minutes ago, placnx said:

They had a potential leader in Marwan Barghouti after the failed Oslo Accords, but he's been locked up for some time. I don't know whether he would be relevant any more, now age 64, but Mandela was locked up for 28 years and became preident at age 75. Marwan also has a very articulate cousin, Mustafa Barghouti, who is also involved in politics.

 

Ultra-Zionists believe that to all belongs to them, including Gaza and the West Bank, maybe Sinai, too, and part of Jordan??? No need the compensate for stolen land since it already belongs to them.

Barghouti was not simply 'locked up' but imprisoned for involvement in terrorism, and was arrested during the second Intifada (I've no idea what you exactly refer to by failed Oslo Accords, or which time this implies).

 

He was quite popular before his arrest, and this popularity remains (increased even) to this day. He often outperforms current leaders in polls and public opinion surveys. In this regard, his imprisonment was, politically, the best thing that happened to him. Helps him keep a clean image, not involved in corruption, petty politics and the like. Then again, if he would have stayed out, hard to see how he'd be markedly different. So bottom line, he's popular, but current leaderships and their cohorts only pay lip service to this, and see him as a rival. Whether he will or will not be a good leader is an unknown. The whole 'succession' issue is quite murky.

 

As for your 'ultra Zionists' bit - what you describe is a step beyond the current far right, even. I don't think that there's one of these in a position of power. Not if including everything you listed. Most of the right wing's efforts are centered on the West Bank and Eastern Jerusalem. From a religious and ideological point of view, these are the focal points. The Gaza Strip is such an obvious can of worms, that they are split on this as well, tough talk aside. The Sinai Peninsula? That's fringe. Not many who push this. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Israel has blockaded Gaza since Hamas came to power 16 years ago. That has made economic development virtually impossible.

How is it economic development is not possible? They can build tunnels and rockets, but not hotels? 

 

 

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

As for the West Bank, it's laughable that you can describe the situation for Palestinians there as self-rule given all the restrictions that Israel has imposed.

Please explain the restrictions casing the situation.

[Morch]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Israel has blockaded Gaza since Hamas came to power 16 years ago. That has made economic development virtually impossible.

As for the West Bank, it's laughable that you can describe the situation for Palestinians there as self-rule given all the restrictions that Israel has imposed.

The blockade on the Gaza Strip and Hamas' rule are connected. Highlighting just one of them as the cause for Gaza's economic woes is misguided. It is worth noting, again, that blockade in place, Hamas manages to restock rocket supplies, buy arms and dig numerous underground facilities and miles of tunnels. The energy and funds invested in these could have instead gone toward improving life in the Gaza Strip. It is a choice.

 

 

[placeholder]

Just now, Yellowtail said:

How is it economic development is not possible? They can build tunnels and rockets, but not hotels? 

 

 

Please explain the restrictions casing the situation.

Smuggling contraband is one thing. Not much in the way of volume. But the volumes and variety of material required to building a modern economy imported via tunnels? That's laughable.

 

As for the West Bank

"Areas A and B are subdivided into 166 islands with no contiguity and
surrounded by Area C, which is the only contiguous part of the West Bank. Area C is
largely inaccessible to Palestinian producers, although it is the largest area and has
the most valuable natural resources, such as fertile land, minerals, stone, tourist
attractions and ingredients for cosmetic products. The wall, together with the
settlements, deepens the economic, physical, administrative and legal fragmentation
of the occupied Palestinian territory (figure I).
10. In 1967, Israel began establishing settlements in the occupied West Bank, with
the growth of settlements in recent years bringing 70 per cent of Area C within the
boundaries of their regional councils and rendering that chunk off limits for Palestinian
use and development (figure II). Palestinian access to the remainder of Area C is
heavily restricted. The present report estimates the economic cost of the additional
restrictions on Palestinian economic activity in the remaining 30 per cent of Area C.
Those restrictions facilitate the establishment of settlements and their expansion, they
foster the setting aside of land and natural resources for settlers and create a difficult
environment which forces the Palestinian population to leave Area C."

https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/a77d295_en.pdf

 

There's a lot more in that report.

 

 

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, Morch said:

The blockade on the Gaza Strip and Hamas' rule are connected. Highlighting just one of them as the cause for Gaza's economic woes is misguided. It is worth noting, again, that blockade in place, Hamas manages to restock rocket supplies, buy arms and dig numerous underground facilities and miles of tunnels. The energy and funds invested in these could have instead gone toward improving life in the Gaza Strip. It is a choice.

 

 

Really, instead of building tunnels what could they have done with those funds?  I know you are aware that Israel has imposed a blockade on the territory since 2007 after Hamas gained power. (actually in 2005-2006 too). What do you think a blockade entails?

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Really, instead of building tunnels what could they have done with those funds?  I know you are aware that Israel has imposed a blockade on the territory since 2007 after Hamas gained power. (actually in 2005-2006 too). What do you think a blockade entails?

Because Hamas are terrorists. 

There is another border there.

[Yellowtail]

11 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Smuggling contraband is one thing. Not much in the way of volume. But the volumes and variety of material required to building a modern economy imported via tunnels? That's laughable.

 

As for the West Bank

"Areas A and B are subdivided into 166 islands with no contiguity and
surrounded by Area C, which is the only contiguous part of the West Bank. Area C is
largely inaccessible to Palestinian producers, although it is the largest area and has
the most valuable natural resources, such as fertile land, minerals, stone, tourist
attractions and ingredients for cosmetic products. The wall, together with the
settlements, deepens the economic, physical, administrative and legal fragmentation
of the occupied Palestinian territory (figure I).
10. In 1967, Israel began establishing settlements in the occupied West Bank, with
the growth of settlements in recent years bringing 70 per cent of Area C within the
boundaries of their regional councils and rendering that chunk off limits for Palestinian
use and development (figure II). Palestinian access to the remainder of Area C is
heavily restricted. The present report estimates the economic cost of the additional
restrictions on Palestinian economic activity in the remaining 30 per cent of Area C.
Those restrictions facilitate the establishment of settlements and their expansion, they
foster the setting aside of land and natural resources for settlers and create a difficult
environment which forces the Palestinian population to leave Area C."

https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/a77d295_en.pdf

 

There's a lot more in that report.

 

 

Wow, cut-and-paste.

 

They build tunnels and rockets with the same materials they could build hotels with.

 

UNICEF has been trying to build a desalinization plant in Gatza for ten years and the Palestinians keep stealing the materials to build weapons. 

 

 

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

UNICEF has been trying to build a desalinization plant in Gatza for ten years and the Palestinians keep stealing the materials to build weapons. 

 

 

Where does this nonsense of yours come from?

 

EU and UNICEF mark the completion of the final phase of the expansion of the Southern Gaza Seawater Desalination plant

Today, representatives of the United Nations, the European Union, and the Palestinian Authority officially marked the finalization of the Gaza Strip desalination plant expansion. With this milestone, water production capacity of the Southern Gaza Seawater Desalination Plant is substantially increased, reaching 175,000 more people.

The event was attended by the Minister of the Palestinian Water Authority, the Representative of the European Union, Representatives from European countries, the Special Representative of UNICEF in the State of Palestine, representatives from the Coastal Municipalities Water Utility (CMWU), Youth and local stakeholders.

https://www.unicef.org/sop/press-releases/eu-and-unicef-mark-completion-final-phase-expansion-southern-gaza-seawater

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Wow, cut-and-paste.

 

You've tried this dodge on before. It's not incumbent upon me to go to the time and trouble to paraphrase information that is readily available via a link. This calls to mind an old saying in a modified form:

"You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it think."

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

They build tunnels and rockets with the same materials they could build hotels with.

What don't you understand about the fact that Israel has imposed a blockade on Gaza?

[Morch]

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Really, instead of building tunnels what could they have done with those funds?  I know you are aware that Israel has imposed a blockade on the territory since 2007 after Hamas gained power. (actually in 2005-2006 too). What do you think a blockade entails?

Bomb shelters would seem an obvious choice. Any other infrastructure requiring cement, still and so on. Funds that go toward purchasing of rocket launchers could have been used to improve education, sanitation or whatever. Really not too complicated. Consider that without Hamas aggression toward Israel, there would be less of a justification to continue the blockade, or to fully apply it.

 

And again, you keep ignoring the fact that Hamas and the existence of the blockade are tied.

[placnx]

23 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Smuggling contraband is one thing. Not much in the way of volume. But the volumes and variety of material required to building a modern economy imported via tunnels? That's laughable.

 

As for the West Bank

"Areas A and B are subdivided into 166 islands with no contiguity and
surrounded by Area C, which is the only contiguous part of the West Bank. Area C is
largely inaccessible to Palestinian producers, although it is the largest area and has
the most valuable natural resources, such as fertile land, minerals, stone, tourist
attractions and ingredients for cosmetic products. The wall, together with the
settlements, deepens the economic, physical, administrative and legal fragmentation
of the occupied Palestinian territory (figure I).
10. In 1967, Israel began establishing settlements in the occupied West Bank, with
the growth of settlements in recent years bringing 70 per cent of Area C within the
boundaries of their regional councils and rendering that chunk off limits for Palestinian
use and development (figure II). Palestinian access to the remainder of Area C is
heavily restricted. The present report estimates the economic cost of the additional
restrictions on Palestinian economic activity in the remaining 30 per cent of Area C.
Those restrictions facilitate the establishment of settlements and their expansion, they
foster the setting aside of land and natural resources for settlers and create a difficult
environment which forces the Palestinian population to leave Area C."

https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/a77d295_en.pdf

 

There's a lot more in that report.

 

 

It will be impossible to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank without shrinking these settlements and dismantling the most egregious, such as Hebron. Settler rampages show that a lot of thought would have to go into stop them from being a danger to Palestinians. Or offending settlers would have to be banned from the West Bank; extraterritorial status of settlers should be limited so that crimes committed in the West Bank (against Palestinians) would fall under Palestinian law.

 

It will be a very heavy lift to achieve a viable Palestinian state.

[placeholder]

38 minutes ago, Morch said:

The blockade on the Gaza Strip and Hamas' rule are connected. Highlighting just one of them as the cause for Gaza's economic woes is misguided. It is worth noting, again, that blockade in place, Hamas manages to restock rocket supplies, buy arms and dig numerous underground facilities and miles of tunnels. The energy and funds invested in these could have instead gone toward improving life in the Gaza Strip. It is a choice.

Given the way that Israel has crippled the Palestinian economy in the West Bank, allow me to doubt that it would allow strong economic development in Gaza. Especially given the hostility that the locals feel towards Israel.