For Expats only. Thinking the unthinkable.

[NoDisplayName]

10 minutes ago, schweizer said:

This December marks the 29th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, in which the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia provided security commitments to Ukraine in exchange for the latter joining the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear state. As part of the agreement, Ukraine relinquished the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world (which it inherited from the U.S.S.R.) and Russia agreed (among other things) “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”.

One could question why people sign treaties just to ignore them when it suits

 

One could.

 

Minsk.

Minsk-2

JCPOA

"not one inch to the east"

Ukraine Declaration of Sovereignty pledging "a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs,"

[Caldera]

19 hours ago, swissie said:

Not during the Tsarist age nor during the Soviet age has Europe been so militarily vulnerable. The temptation for Putin to become the new age "Alexander The Great" is high.

 

That's laughable, considering that the Russian military hasn't made any real progress in Ukraine for more than a year when their original plan was to take Kiev within days.

 

Walking into NATO territory, Russian ground troops would be obliterated by air strikes within days. It would quite literally be suicide.

[Furioso]

The West loves to see Russia in a proxy war vs. Ukraine as they can assess Russia's wartime capabilities(weak) and at the same time watch Russia's economy collapse.

 

It's a Win - Win for The West!

[Scouse123]

23 hours ago, swissie said:

You, an Expat living in Thailand having certain Assets in Europe? Some food for thaught:

Let's face it: Without US support, it's "game over" for the Ukraine. After that, the only question remaining is: Will the Russians stop at the Hungarian border or march into the heart of Europe, as the Hungarians will not shoot at any Russians?

European armies have been stripped to the bone, running out of ammo after 2 weeks.

Real Estate can't be moved out of a country. But "liquid assets" can. As an Expat are you considering moving your liquid assets to a trusted Thai Bank as long as this is still possible? Easily returned if this scenario should not unfold.

-Not during the Tsarist age nor during the Soviet age has Europe been so militarily vulnerable. The temptation for Putin to become the new age "Alexander The Great" is high.

Needless to say, that under the rule of Tsar Putin, any sort of pension-money transfers will come to a grinding halt.
All just food for thaught. 

 

 

You know what they say, If you have nothing sensible to say, keep schtum.

[Scouse123]

3 hours ago, Caldera said:

 

That's laughable, considering that the Russian military hasn't made any real progress in Ukraine for more than a year when their original plan was to take Kiev within days.

 

Walking into NATO territory, Russian ground troops would be obliterated by air strikes within days. It would quite literally be suicide.

 

 

I think if he tried to order the above, there would be mass mutinies, defections and surrenders.

[Scouse123]

4 hours ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

One could.

 

Minsk.

Minsk-2

JCPOA

"not one inch to the east"

Ukraine Declaration of Sovereignty pledging "a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs,"

 

 

A neutral buffer state such as Ukraine would be sensible.

 

What many forget is that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is every bit the autocrat that Putin is and has tried to beg, threaten and bully the West in a constant quest for more funds and armaments.

[Luuk Chaai]

11 hours ago, scottiejohn said:

A very horrible but likely outcome if that MAGA Maniac gets back into power again!

Looks like we have some severe cases of TDS ! 

[MangoKorat]

8 hours ago, Prubangboy said:

Who is this "we" you speak of? I am assuming that you, like me, are well, well past draft-age.

 

Europe is broke. And up to their neck in migrants. They will bend over very backwards to split the diff and not fight.

 

Like they did with Crimea. Like Obama did when he retreated from his line in the sand in Syria. It'll be a death by a thousand cuts for Europe, not a dramatic conventional war. 

 

If only there was a film about a superpower direct throw down to get the pulse racing.

 

Wait a minute:

 

 

 

We is the West, the free world.

 

What you are alluding to is that the West will roll over - it won't.  Its clear from your use of the word 'draft' and your comments that Europe is broke that you are from the US - currently just about the most divided nation on earth in terms of political thinking at the moment and its clear which camp you are in.

 

What the West is doing at the moment is allowing Putin to be the aggressor and giving him far too much lattitude out of misguided hope of maintaining some form of peace.  That is a mistake in my opinion but the tide will turn, it always has done.  It will no doubt cost us but we will wake up in the end.  Do you seriously think we went through the tradgedy that was WW2 to simply roll over and allow a different megalomaniac to take over?

[Prubangboy]

1 hour ago, MangoKorat said:

We is the West, the free world.

 

What you are alluding to is that the West will roll over - it won't.  Its clear from your use of the word 'draft' and your comments that Europe is broke that you are from the US - currently just about the most divided nation on earth in terms of political thinking at the moment and its clear which camp you are in.

 

What the West is doing at the moment is allowing Putin to be the aggressor and giving him far too much lattitude out of misguided hope of maintaining some form of peace.  That is a mistake in my opinion but the tide will turn, it always has done.  It will no doubt cost us but we will wake up in the end.  Do you seriously think we went through the tradgedy that was WW2 to simply roll over and allow a different megalomaniac to take over?

Not too many living people remember WW2. I'm a left of center Biden liberal.

 

As to rolling over for a megalomaniac, you may have noticed that we yanks are about 50/50 on doing that next year. Europe has its own rightward pro-Russian shift to worry about.

 

Bottom line: If Putin grabs Latvia, do you want your son to go and fight in that war? Prob not.

 

Shortest possible version: Putin is a very credible threat to use nukes. And that puts us on the back foot and makes us fight with one hand behind our back. I don't like it either. 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Prubangboy

[Prubangboy]

9 hours ago, mfd101 said:

Taiwan would disappear next. Noone would ever trust the Yanks again.

Ask any Kurd that you happen to meet about trusting America. We (means the entire west) only have your back if it's easy and cheap. This is why Taiwan is well-weaponized. 

 

And yet, even after Obama (who I love) reneged in a hurry on the Syrian Line In The Sand, poor countries all over the world still believe in America -with one eye kept open while they sleep. When there is no other game in town, an iffy one doesn't look too bad,

 

European people begrudge even having the Ukranians as refugees. Taking money away from their broken budgets or giving up their lives for them?

 

Def a hard sell. And Putin knows it.

[daveAustin]

Quite amusing seeing Swiss people muse on war. You’d be better off thinking about ‘more important’ things like watches, nazi gold, and chocolate. 😂

[CartagenaWarlock]

17 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

simply because that would present a existential risk to the US who would have no choice but to get involved.

If Russia takes over Europe, there is no existential threat to the US but US would get involved if a NATO country is attacked. 

[Fr87]

Russia will be perfectly happy to end it all. They have the three regions and a vassal state.

 

Russia doesn't need the best army. It only needs to be able to meet objectives. I think it's done well by using working class cannon fodder and old materiale.

 

It could have won this thing far faster yet the cost would have been greater to the capital and to the Ukrainian people. Russians and Ukrainians are blood kin, tied at the hip, a thousand year history. Putin isn't going to win any hearts and minds by stepping on their faces with steel toed boots.

 

This war was nothing but a BS way to clean out all old remaining military weaponry and systems on both sides.

 

I can't believe anyone thought Russia would lose this without US and EU direct involvement. For me, this was a forgone conclusion.

 

It was just an excuse to further bleed US taxpayer not only dry - but off to debtors prison. US is financially mortally wounded.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Fr87

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, MangoKorat said:

What the West is doing at the moment is allowing Putin to be the aggressor and giving him far too much lattitude out of misguided hope of maintaining some form of peace. 

Sorry but on this one you are wrong.

I know I am going to catch flack from these and my notifications will be flooded with accusations  of being a Putin apologist ,but I am a realist, and the reality is, the US is the Aggressor in this. 

Just as the US would not allow Russian bases on their border, so does Russia , or any great power for that matter.  

Since the 2008 NATO invitation of Ukraine into NATO, it has been made clear to the US from the Russians , many notable US experts and foreign leaders  that such move would be a red line and a de facto declaration of war to Russia. (Angela Merkle, Sarkozy, Burns,  etc)

Yet the US persisted . No surprise to anyone on the know that Russia invaded , in fact the US wanted them to invade . In t at the Istanbul summit at the beginning of the invasion , Ukraine and Russia were ready to sign an agreement to end the war, but the US nix it , 

(I wonder how much Zelensky got in his offshore accounts from the Americans to be persuaded?)

The US was not ready for a peace deal  , because it thought that the Ukrainians had a good chance to win this thing.  And even if they did not a many strategist suggested, Russia had not bleaded  enough yet. (The goal was to weaken Russia and degrade it's military) . and the hell with Ukra'ne 

The Americans did not give a damn about Ukrainian lives. As many like to say , "The Americans were ready to fight to the last Ukrainian"

But war always has unforeseen consequences. Always!!

Helmuth von Moltke said "no plan survives contact with the enemy " and this again has being the outcome. 

I am sick to my stomach, for what was done to Ukraine and a lost generation of Ukrainian youth .

sacrificed on the altar of international politics, and the US's attempt to remain the Unipolar hegemon of the world. 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by sirineou

[BE88]

swissie    Be quiet, everyone here thinks that the Swiss are idiots with your information from Facebook

[Mike Lister]

24 minutes ago, CartagenaWarlock said:

If Russia takes over Europe, there is no existential threat to the US but US would get involved if a NATO country is attacked. 

And you think that NATO wouldn't get involved, the moment any European country was attacked......there can be no question of that, ergo the US would also be involved out of treaty obligations if nothing else.  At that point, NATO has to win otherwise a russian owned Europe becomes  an existential threat to the US

[scottiejohn]

9 minutes ago, BE88 said:

swissie    Be quiet, everyone here thinks that the Swiss are idiots with your information from Facebook

Yet another self centered person who claims to know what everyone thinks!

You most certainly do not know what I think about swissie/facebook as I have no idea what you are referring to!

 

PS;  Quote highlighted by me!

Edited December 9, 2023 by scottiejohn

[FruitPudding]

On 12/8/2023 at 2:56 AM, swissie said:

Real Estate can't be moved out of a country. But "liquid assets" can. As an Expat are you considering moving your liquid assets to a trusted Thai Bank as long as this is still possible? Easily returned if this scenario should not unfold.

 

Actually,  there's another thread right now about Thai banks not letting a guy transfer just 400 grand (baht) of his own money outside the country

[FruitPudding]

1 hour ago, Prubangboy said:

I'm a left of center Biden liberal.

 

Did you really just say that out loud?

 

I wouldn't admit to knowing Biden even if we were blood relatives.

[Dan O]

12 hours ago, Prubangboy said:

They don't love Russia, but a big fellow commie nation right next door being taken down is not in their interest. China's influence in the war has already raised their status. Would China mind if that neighbor was weakened? Sure.

 

As long as we're comically pretending to be geopolitical experts, China's watching how Russia gets sorted out with an eye up the road to Taiwan. If it's a bankrupting slog to only get part of Taiwan, it's a no-go. If Russia can bluff and exhaust its way to getting what they want with no downside for the war, it's more of a go. It's a big bluff poker game.

 

Putin maybe not be rolling tanks through the Arc De Triumph any time soon, but will French youth be willing to dodge bullets to defend Estonia? No. Likewise America's real desire to fight to defend Taiwan is an idea best left untested.

 

I derive these opinions from reading The Economist.

Both China and Russia are testing the water to see what the international community will tolerate and how far they can go.

 

Russia has already taken several areas back o er the years and announced there intention to continue to take back territory they once held in Eastern union prior to the end of WW2.

 

China likewise does the exact same thing. The have one eye on what Russia is doing and the world reaction to it because it serves as a barometer for them.  They are heavy handedly taking sea area from Vietnam and Phillipines, and land area in Tibet and Nepal. They control most of the borders countries like Laos, Myanmar northern VN.and claim Taiwan as there's as well. Is anyone actively stopping  them? Nope. They are fighting a war of silence from other nations while at the same time openly declaring the next big war will be against the US meanwhile slowly stealing IT property ever chance they get. 

[Prubangboy]

1 hour ago, FruitPudding said:

 

I wouldn't admit to knowing Biden even if we were blood relatives.

Not to derail a good convo, but I was a government analyst.  

 

This flavor is heavily big government/moderate left of center. Not a single conservative was in my grad school policy analysis program. They have no interest. They have no actionable policies.

 

Reality and problem-solving has a liberal bias. Hillary -the laser-focused super-wonk, is our sexual fantasy. The deep state is real.

 

Fear us.

 

[Chris Daley]

I don't have any money and I am too out of shape to fight.  I struggle with stairs.  They can have the shirt off my back I guess.

[Prubangboy]

29 minutes ago, Dan O said:

They are heavy handedly taking sea area from Vietnam and Phillipines, and land area in Tibet and Nepal. They control most of the borders countries like Laos, Myanmar northern VN. 

Controlling Laos is like inheriting a broken clock. China will have trouble getting paid back on their various schemes.

 

Who isn't in default is the real question.

[Grumpy one]

On 12/8/2023 at 2:56 AM, swissie said:

You, an Expat living in Thailand having certain Assets in Europe? Some food for thaught:

Let's face it: Without US support, it's "game over" for the Ukraine. After that, the only question remaining is: Will the Russians stop at the Hungarian border or march into the heart of Europe, as the Hungarians will not shoot at any Russians?

European armies have been stripped to the bone, running out of ammo after 2 weeks.

Real Estate can't be moved out of a country. But "liquid assets" can. As an Expat are you considering moving your liquid assets to a trusted Thai Bank as long as this is still possible? Easily returned if this scenario should not unfold.

-Not during the Tsarist age nor during the Soviet age has Europe been so militarily vulnerable. The temptation for Putin to become the new age "Alexander The Great" is high.

Needless to say, that under the rule of Tsar Putin, any sort of pension-money transfers will come to a grinding halt.
All just food for thaught. 

I tried to bring my liquid assets to Thailand but it was too much hassle.

So I drank them  

[mikebike]

1 hour ago, Prubangboy said:

Controlling Laos is like inheriting a broken clock. China will have trouble getting paid back on their various schemes.

 

Who isn't in default is the real question.

Soft power initiatives do NOT require monetary pay-back to be successful. China has been very competent in its soft power outreach. 

[Neeranam]

On 12/8/2023 at 2:56 AM, swissie said:

You, an Expat living in Thailand having certain Assets in Europe? Some food for thaught:

Let's face it: Without US support, it's "game over" for the Ukraine. After that, the only question remaining is: Will the Russians stop at the Hungarian border or march into the heart of Europe, as the Hungarians will not shoot at any Russians?

European armies have been stripped to the bone, running out of ammo after 2 weeks.

Real Estate can't be moved out of a country. But "liquid assets" can. As an Expat are you considering moving your liquid assets to a trusted Thai Bank as long as this is still possible? Easily returned if this scenario should not unfold.

-Not during the Tsarist age nor during the Soviet age has Europe been so militarily vulnerable. The temptation for Putin to become the new age "Alexander The Great" is high.

Needless to say, that under the rule of Tsar Putin, any sort of pension-money transfers will come to a grinding halt.
All just food for thaught. 

Buy Bitcoin, only safe asset.

[Henryford]

Is Thailand any better when Xi invades?

[Dan O]

2 hours ago, Prubangboy said:

Controlling Laos is like inheriting a broken clock. China will have trouble getting paid back on their various schemes.

 

Who isn't in default is the real question.

So thats what you got out of what I wrote?

China and Russia both will pay dearly for there actions in all these areas. Do you think Russia has the money or ability to rebuild Ukraine if it won the war and took over that country with all the devastation they caused?  China wants to claim the territories to expand d and control geography\resources. They both want the resources and could care less about the people. China is essentially broken financially although when you control the currency as they do it doesnt show up anywhere

[Dan O]

16 minutes ago, Henryford said:

Is Thailand any better when Xi invades?

He doesn't need to invade the Chinese hold the vast share of power, influence and investment in the country already

[Prubangboy]

1 minute ago, Dan O said:

So thats what you got out of what I wrote?

 

It is indeed a mean ol' world full of low-morals opportunists. All of the world economies have a lot of problems. 

 

Thanks.