Can Thailand detonate the baby boom it needs as retirement time bomb looms?

[webfact]

 

Thai retirees started outnumbering people entering the workforce for the first time last year, sparking concerns that the country faces a future of economic and social breakdown.

 

An official report titled “Thailand’s Critical Birthrate Fall” estimates that the number of first-jobbers (people aged between 20 and 24) has already dropped below the number of people hitting retirement age (60 to 64 years old) in 2023.

 

“The gap between these figures threatens to cause labor shortages, raise the dependency ratio, and increase elderly healthcare expenses,” the report said.

 

Motivating people to have babies

 

If the trend of falling birthrate is not reversed, Thailand’s population will shrink from its current level of 66 million to just 33 million by 2083, says demographics expert Prof Kua Wongboonsin.

 

Projections also suggest that over the same period, the number of working-age people in the country will collapse from 46 million now to just 14 million. The number of retirement-aged Thais (over 65), meanwhile, is projected to jump from 8 million now to 18 million.

 

Full story: Thai PBS 2024-01-08

 

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[JensenZ]

They claim the current population of Thailand is only 66 million, whereas recent estimates are as follows:

 

• The current population of Thailand is 71,845,250 as of Sunday, January 7, 2024, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.

 

The population was 66 million in about 2005, 18 years ago. Can they not do even the most basic research?

 

A surprising statistic was the median age of the population, which was only 20 in 1985, and just over 40 now in 2024.

Edited January 7 by JensenZ

[thaibeachlovers]

34 minutes ago, webfact said:

If the trend of falling birthrate is not reversed, Thailand’s population will shrink from its current level of 66 million to just 33 million by 2083, says demographics expert Prof Kua Wongboonsin.

Seems someone thinks that everything else will stay the same in the next 59 years. 55555555555

 

This is just pointless alarmism IMO.

Women just don't want lots of children any more, and I don't blame them. Having to work and bring up kids as well sucks biggly, IMO.

 

Rather than bleating pointlessly about why women don't want to breed anymore, government should accept it and come up with solutions that don't involve more children.

[fondue zoo]

 

Highly unlikely, unless they start sending out people to pinprick all the condoms.

 

50 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Rather than bleating pointlessly about why women don't want to breed anymore, government should accept it and come up with solutions that don't involve more children.

This, it's happening in many "western" countries, they're all wringing their hands but have offered virtually zero solutions. They don't even like talking about it, hard to spin it nowadays.

It's a pickle to be sure, a lot of those old white dudes are already fantasising about a Handmaid's Tale style solution.

 

[spidermike007]

One of the most wonderful aspects of living in this day and age is that giving birth is now a decision, it's a choice, it's not something that's mandated like it was in the past, and many many couples are simply saying NO! We are not going to have children, or we're only going to have one child.

 

Raising children has become very expensive, the world's becoming incredibly complicated, and a lot of us are just saying why on earth would I want to bring a child into this world right now? 

 

Hopefully the birthrates will continue to decline worldwide, it will mean lower GDP, it will mean a loss of labor force, there will probably be a certain amount of pain, but overall it's good for the planet. 

[redwood1]

23 minutes ago, fondue zoo said:

 

Highly unlikely, unless they start sending out people to pinprick all the condoms.

 

This, it's happening in many "western" countries, they're all wringing their hands but have offered virtually zero solutions. They don't even like talking about it, hard to spin it nowadays.

It's a pickle to be sure, a lot of those old white dudes are already fantasising about a Handmaid's Tale style solution.

 

 

I hate condoms.....Condoms are evil....

[pacovl46]

I've never seen more children than I did in Thailand. Unless there's been a dramatic change since 2014, I find this somehow hard to believe. 

[Mike Lister]

10 minutes ago, pacovl46 said:

I've never seen more children than I did in Thailand. Unless there's been a dramatic change since 2014, I find this somehow hard to believe. 

Believe it!

 

 

https://thailand.un.org/en/96303-thailand-economic-focus-demographic-change-thailand-how-planners-can-prepare-future

 

 

[peter zwart]

They should focus more on quality that enters the labour market.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, fondue zoo said:

 

Highly unlikely, unless they start sending out people to pinprick all the condoms.

 

This, it's happening in many "western" countries, they're all wringing their hands but have offered virtually zero solutions. They don't even like talking about it, hard to spin it nowadays.

It's a pickle to be sure, a lot of those old white dudes are already fantasising about a Handmaid's Tale style solution.

 

Didn't the Handmaid's Tale end up badly for the old white dudes?

 

People had lots of kids when they had to or it didn't cost the earth, and usually the mother didn't work.

That's changed.

Paying women to breed isn't a good idea as it's IMO exploited by the least desirable cohort of people. Better educated women just don't want lots or any kids now, as seen in Japan, Singapore and Sth Korea.

 

Anyway it's all going to be completely irrelevant once androids are a reality, and that's not far off IMO. I'm just sorry I'm going to miss out.

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thai retirees started outnumbering people entering the workforce for the first time last year, sparking concerns that the country faces a future of economic and social breakdown

Give people a livable wage and they will breed... it's not rocket science.

[thaibeachlovers]

53 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

One of the most wonderful aspects of living in this day and age is that giving birth is now a decision, it's a choice, it's not something that's mandated like it was in the past, and many many couples are simply saying NO! We are not going to have children, or we're only going to have one child.

 

Raising children has become very expensive, the world's becoming incredibly complicated, and a lot of us are just saying why on earth would I want to bring a child into this world right now? 

 

Hopefully the birthrates will continue to decline worldwide, it will mean lower GDP, it will mean a loss of labor force, there will probably be a certain amount of pain, but overall it's good for the planet. 

I gave that a thumbs up.

[soalbundy]

I'm doing my best.

[Henryford]

So we can forget about any young girls coming into the bars. The average age now is about 40, will creep upto 50.

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

One of the most wonderful aspects of living in this day and age is that giving birth is now a decision, it's a choice, it's not something that's mandated like it was in the past, and many many couples are simply saying NO! We are not going to have children, or we're only going to have one child

If only they can learn that before leaving school!

[Mike Lister]

Just now, Henryford said:

So we can forget about any young girls coming into the bars. The average age now is about 40, will creep upto 50.

A new trend in the bar scene in Patts........Granny Town, not on Walking street but on Soi Zimmer Frame.

[fondue zoo]

5 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

A new trend in the bar scene in Patts........Granny Town, not on Walking street but on Soi Zimmer Frame.

 

Soapy Granny, she'll make sure you wash behind your ears.

[stoner]

8 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

10 minutes ago, Henryford said:

So we can forget about any young girls coming into the bars. The average age now is about 40, will creep upto 50.

A new trend in the bar scene in Patts........Granny Town, not on Walking street but on Soi Zimmer Frame.

 

don't forget snaggle tooth alley in hua hin. 

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, stoner said:

 

don't forget snaggle tooth alley in hua hin. 

Er, do you have directions, a friend wants to know.

[Ben Zioner]

Easy to fix; change PIT to HIT (Personal Income Tax to Household IT) it worked in Europe until they lost control of immigration. 

Edited January 8 by Ben Zioner

[Ben Zioner]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

One of the most wonderful aspects of living in this day and age is that giving birth is now a decision, it's a choice, it's not something that's mandated like it was in the past, and many many couples are simply saying NO! We are not going to have children, or we're only going to have one child.

Empty lives; been through a lot of excitement during my 71 years but nothing beats having children. Even sex feels better when trying to conceive.

[Denim]

31 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Give people a livable wage and they will breed... it's not rocket science.

 

Perhaps if the population declines and the available workforce shrinks then employers will have to pay higher wages to fill their vacancies.

 

I recall from a history lesson that this happened in England after the plague. Workers found themselves in demand and had a greater choice of where to work. As a result they got higher wages and their living standards improved.

[PremiumLane]

If you want people to have more kids, then have meaningful social programs to help, so people aren't having to work 2 or 3 jobs just to survive. Really simple. 

[baansgr]

This old chestnut is as bad as build more roads and it creates traffic. A mere 1baht of extra taxation will cover any extra finance needed. 

[2baht]

Are the men up for it???

[Coota]

Judging by the number of teenage mothers walking around carrying babies at my local market here in rural Surin yesterday there is no problem, getting the them to work could be a problem though, when they grow up.

[Henryford]

7 minutes ago, PremiumLane said:

If you want people to have more kids, then have meaningful social programs to help, so people aren't having to work 2 or 3 jobs just to survive. Really simple. 

 

The problem is that people's idea of "surviving" has changed. My wife didn't work when we were bringing up children so we had to make sacrifices. Few foreign holidays, nights out etc. Now just "surviving" means 3 foreign holidays a year, 2 mobile phones, streaming tv and sky sports, 2-3 nights out a week, new leased BMW every 3 years. No wonder people can't "afford" to have children.

Edited January 8 by Henryford

[Denim]

29 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

A new trend in the bar scene in Patts........Granny Town, not on Walking street but on Soi Zimmer Frame.

 

Could be worse.

 

It's when the action moves to soi colonoscopy bag that it's  time to quit .

Bognor Regis will start to look good for retirement  again.

[bamnutsak]

On the plus side, the Education budget (~ 35% graft) will be halved.

 

If people have confidence in the future of their country then they will have more incentive to have more children.

 

I guess that Thais see little hope for the future - other than the next lottery number - just the same, same as the past 100 years, so they have no desire to bear and raise more children.

 

If there was a path forward with new political leadership and a minimization of hereditary and military control, then folks might regain hope.

 

 

[Captain Monday]

Open the borders and give migrants a fair path to permanent residence and citizenship

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