Thailand's currency becomes one of Asia’s worst performers

[webfact]

 

Thailand's currency THB may extend its recent declines to test support at last year’s low amid growing pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates, according to the US website Bloomberg.com.

 

Hanoi (VNA) – Thailand's currency THB may extend its recent declines to test support at last year’s low amid growing pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates, according to the US website Bloomberg.com.

 

The currency has already dropped almost 7% since the start of January, making it one of Asia’s worst performers, and putting it less than 1.4% away from October’s low of 37.237 per dollar. Some analysts see that level being tested if the Bank of Thailand trims its benchmark on April 10.

 

While economists expect BoT policymakers to further delay rate hikes this week, traders were cautious after the two BoT members voted in favour of a rate cut at their previous meeting in February. In the same month, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's government called for an emergency rate cut.

 

TOP picture: Shoppers pass through a street market in Bangkok, Thailand.(Photo:bloomberg.com)

 

Full story: Vietnam Plus 2024-04-10

 

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[Mike Lister]

Octobers low of 37.23 was when the USD DI was at 106.65 on 8 October.

Today we're at 36.69 and the USD DI is at 104.38.

That tells me that most of the weakness results from an overly strong USD which is in line with other EM currencies.

 

But if the MPC cuts rates, for sure, THB down further and the cause wont be USD.

[smedly]

worst performing could be looked at as a positive considering exports and tourism 

[Pouatchee]

FINALLY! THANK GOD FOR SMALL FAVORS!!!

[Gottfrid]

Thailand can thank an incompetent central bank and too many military coups for this as well as human trafficking and high rate of criminal offences.

[Mike Lister]

Just now, Gottfrid said:

Thailand can thank an incompetent central bank and too many military coups for this.

Don't agree the Central Bank is incompetent at all, Sethaput is very good and very capable.

[retarius]

It has been nice receiving SS recently in Thai Baht. I hope the US$ goes to 40 baht or 50.

[Gottfrid]

7 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Don't agree the Central Bank is incompetent at all, Sethaput is very good and very capable.

He might be, but many times his hands are tied. Also, the numbers are telling a grim story. However, it´s not easy to work against a negative trend. However, Thailand might look at it as positive, as it is and will be for international affairs and tourism.

[Thailand]

I would guess a lot to do with foreign currency inflow with concerns about tax liabilities on such remittances?

[Mike Lister]

4 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

He might be, but many times his hands are tied. Also, the numbers are telling a grim story. However, it´s not easy to work against a negative trend. However, Thailand might look at it as positive, as it is and will be for international affairs and tourism.

As demonstrated earlier, the current Baht weakness is mostly a function of USD strength. The problem today is with the US now forecast to maintain higher rates for longer, any cut in BOT rates will weaken the Baht further and cause import costs to increase, especially oil which is also on a strengthening track. Increasing the spread between US and Thai rates will only cause damage, it's the SME's who want the rate reduced, not the native population. If the spread does increase, capital outflows will weaken the economy even further. If on top of all those things, this 10k giveaway ever materialises, it's a recipe for disaster because it will spawn inflation is an already depressed and weakened Baht environment.

 

A stronger USD and higher oil prices can only damage tourism and as air fares increase because of the increased cost of oil, domestic transportation costs will increase also, as will the weight of debt in the already overburdened Fuel Subsidy Fund. The one solid string that the Thai economy has to its bow is low debt at under 60% of GDP, that is its saving grace which it is about to cut. Sethaput understands those things,  politicians and government that seeks re-election doesn't.

[Hellfire]

16 minutes ago, retarius said:

It has been nice receiving SS recently in Thai Baht. I hope the US$ goes to 40 baht or 50.

No chances.. 38 max. And then all the way down to 30

[Mike Lister]

10 minutes ago, Thailand said:

I would guess a lot to do with foreign currency inflow with concerns about tax liabilities on such remittances?

Capital inflows will almost certainly come via the BOI and remain untaxed, somebody buying a condo is not what I would describe as meaningful FDI.

[BayArea]

I'm arriving in June,  I hope the dollar gets 40 baht!!!

[BayArea]

2 hours ago, Hellfire said:

No chances.. 38 max. And then all the way down to 30

As long as it's in the high 30s when I'm there, I won't complain 

[Srikcir]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

the two BoT members voted in favour of a rate cut at their previous meeting in February.

5 to 2 vote to maintain 2.5%.

Unlikely in the near term to get a minimum 4 to 3 vote to cut further. Personally, a reversal of 5 to 2 or 6 to 1 vote to cut rate would carry more public confidence than a bare majority.

 

[zhounan]

Actually a cheap Baht is the reason of increase in tourists, investments and exports.

[Mike Lister]

Just now, zhounan said:

Actually a cheap Baht is the reason of increase in tourists, investments and exports.

I don't agree the cheap Baht increases exports significantly. Studies have shown that it is the buying country currency that must be stronger, not the selling country currency weaker, before exports improve.

[John Drake]

Good news at last.

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, John Drake said:

Good news at last.

Not really, it's just the start of increased prices and bigger problems.

[koolkarl]

What do you expect when Thailand has almost zero interest rates for ages.  Baht will weaken more but not in a straight line.

[RichardColeman]

So, when I came to live here in 2015 it was 55 baht to the £, the fact it is now only 46 and a bit, hardly means its worst performing its still 20% higher than it was ! Its maybe just a well needed correction 

[NickyLouie]

7 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

 If on top of all those things, this 10k giveaway ever materialises, it's a recipe for disaster because it will spawn inflation is an already depressed and weakened Baht environment.

 

 

 

Thai's alreadys collected that 10K , even some very wealthy ones I spoke with took it.

 

[BritManToo]

2 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

So, when I came to live here in 2015 it was 55 baht to the £, the fact it is now only 46 and a bit, hardly means its worst performing its still 20% higher than it was ! Its maybe just a well needed correction 

When I came to live here in 2009 I was getting 50bht to the pound, I've lost 8% over 15 years on currency exchange, but my pension has doubled.

[Mike Lister]

MPC votes to leave rates unchanged today, thank goodness.

[Mavideol]

12 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

Octobers low of 37.23 was when the USD DI was at 106.65 on 8 October.

Today we're at 36.69 and the USD DI is at 104.38.

That tells me that most of the weakness results from an overly strong USD which is in line with other EM currencies.

 

But if the MPC cuts rates, for sure, THB down further and the cause wont be USD.

36.69 ??? where? as XE is at

1.00 US Dollar = 36.382876 Thai Baht

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

36.69 ??? where? as XE is at

1.00 US Dollar = 36.382876 Thai Baht

I wrote that Tuesday for another purpose elsewhere and simply copied it without bothering to check the rate. It doesn't really change the argument. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/THB%3DX

[thesetat]

10 hours ago, retarius said:

It has been nice receiving SS recently in Thai Baht. I hope the US$ goes to 40 baht or 50.

yeah, just imagine if all that extra is taxed when they start implementing that new tax law. Even if your money come in SS. They can tax you and make you prove the source and that it is untaxable

[thailand49]

Baht getting weak!

Oh get me a crying towel 😂

[fusion58]

Quote

Thailand's currency becomes one of Asia’s worst performers

 

[hotchilli]

On 4/10/2024 at 4:51 AM, webfact said:

The currency has already dropped almost 7% since the start of January, making it one of Asia’s worst performers,

Hardly surprising when you look at the political stage in Thailand.

Rigged elections and so-called politicians who don't have a clue what they're doing.