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Posted
13 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

It could also force the Tories back to the right of centre, gaining them more votes from traditional Conservative voters. 

Back to the right of centre? 

Posted
5 hours ago, Social Media said:

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Nigel Farage Announces Candidacy and Leadership of Reform UK


Nigel Farage has confirmed his candidacy for MP in Clacton and his return as leader of Reform UK. After initially stating he wouldn't stand, Farage made an "emergency general election announcement" this morning. Richard Tice, the former leader of Reform UK, invited Farage to take over the leadership, citing his capacity to lead from the front.

 

Farage expressed that millions would feel let down if he didn't step up, emphasizing his belief that Reform UK will secure seats and potentially surpass the Conservative Party in votes. In a video message, Farage declared his intent to "make Britain great again," signaling his political comeback with a strong message to voters.

 

Reaction from Conservatives
The announcement has sparked significant reaction among Conservatives. Former MPs and Cabinet ministers have voiced their frustration over the party's handling of the threat from the right. One former minister criticized the party's "incompetence," while another expressed regret over not forming an alliance with Reform UK to counter Labour. Nadine Dorries, a former Cabinet minister and ally of Boris Johnson, suggested that if Johnson were still leader, Farage wouldn't have felt the need to run. She criticized those who removed Johnson, suggesting their actions might lead to the Conservative Party's decline.

 

A Conservative spokesperson accused Farage of aiding Labour leader Keir Starmer by dividing the right-wing vote, potentially enabling Labour to pursue policies contrary to Farage's lifelong anti-EU stance. They argued that only the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak could offer a secure future for the UK.

 

Implications for Major Parties
The announcement has significant implications for both major parties, but particularly the Conservatives. A former Tory Cabinet minister described Farage's move as "bad news for both major parties, but sadly worse news for the Conservatives," acknowledging Farage's influence and ability to attract votes. Farage noted there had been no approach from the Tories for a potential electoral pact, asserting that Reform UK aims to become the primary opposition voice in Parliament. He affirmed Richard Tice's support for his decision, stating Tice is "delighted" with the leadership change.

 

Farage's Vision and Goals
Farage believes Reform UK could secure more votes than the Conservatives, aiming for millions more votes than UKIP achieved in 2015. He is focused on addressing public dissatisfaction with current governance, emphasizing a need for boldness to reverse national decline. Farage intends to lead a "political revolt" against the status quo, targeting inefficiencies in public services and broader systemic issues.

 

Campaign Plans
Farage will officially launch his candidacy in Clacton tomorrow, marking the start of his campaign. He plans to lead Reform UK not only through the upcoming election but for the next five years, aiming to garner substantial support and effect significant political change. Farage's strategy includes appealing to disaffected voters who might currently lean towards Labour out of disgust with the status quo, encouraging them to support a movement they believe in.

 

 

 

Credit: Daily Telegraph 2024-06-04

 

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Excellent, I fully support Nigel in his bid to make it eight in a row.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Maybe something from the unquestionably rightwing Daily Express would be more to your liking:

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1906878/tory-seats-general-election-reform-uk-damage

 

That's better, try to limit the lazy glib responses, it makes for a much better debate. 

 

This is a conservative opinion piece aimed at stopping Farage. Of course the Tories want everyone to vote Tory.

 

The reality is that many people to the right of centre that are fed up with the Tories will now vote Reform instead of Labour. Labour just lost many of those disillusioned Conservative voters. 

 

I wouldn't rule out a Tory/Reform coalition, with Reform gently nudging the Tories back to right from where they have drifted to their current left of centre position. The Conservatives might be forced to be Conservative again. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

 

That's better, try to limit the lazy glib responses, it makes for a much better debate. 

 

This is a conservative opinion piece aimed at stopping Farage. Of course the Tories want everyone to vote Tory.

 

The reality is that many people to the right of centre that are fed up with the Tories will now vote Reform instead of Labour. Labour just lost many of those disillusioned Conservative voters. 

 

I wouldn't rule out a Tory/Reform coalition, with Reform gently nudging the Tories back to right from where they have drifted to their current left of centre position. The Conservatives might be forced to be Conservative again. 


Would you like something from the left of center press?

 

Explain this to me.

 

Why would a ‘right of center’ Tory voter fed up with what you claim to be a Tory drift to a current ‘center left’ position choose to vote for Labour? It just doesn’t make sense Jonny.

 

Unless of course you have decided on the cause and then try to fit a predicted outcome to the cause you yourself decided on.

 

It’s not lazy to conclude Reform will take votes from the Tories, it’s blatantly obvious, especially given Reform having said they are targeting the Tories.

 

What’s far more interesting is how many votes will reform take from the Tories.

 

Shifting the dial only a couple of percent away from the Tories across large numbers of constituencies

 might decimate the Tory Party in Parliament to the benefit of Labour and the Lib Dems.

 

Anyhow, hold the headlines, there’s still time for Farage to change his mind again. Perhaps a deal to be struck for a bit of ermine. 

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Why would a ‘right of center’ Tory voter fed up with what you claim to be a Tory drift to a current ‘center left’ position choose to vote for Labour? It just doesn’t make sense Jonny.

 

 

A protest vote.

 

Why did traditional red wall voters vote for Boris en masse giving him a huge majority in 2019? Because they were sick of Labour ignoring their Brexit vote and were prepared to hold their nose. Nobody predicted that, including you. So are you saying red wall voters can vote for Boris but Tory voters cannot vote Labour? It's not a logical argument. 

 

Many people are fed up with the Tories and want to teach them a lesson. Since there is very little between them and Labour these days, they probably think it won't make much difference and want to stick it to the Tories. 

 

If they now have a choice of how to do that (Labour or Reform) I predict they will choose Reform to demonstrate what they want the Tories to be. Right of centre. They don't need to vote Labour to stick it to the Tories any more. It's an easy out. I believe this will cost Labour the votes of disillusioned Conservatives.

 

I don't need an opinion piece from The Telegraph (or The Guardian) to convince me, because we are all making a prediction and I have stated my reasons for reaching my conclusion. I think this could make the election a lot closer than polls are suggesting and I wouldn't rule out a hung Parliament. 

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Posted
41 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

If by failure, you mean outperforming France and Germany.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/26/even-lacklustre-britain-outperforming-failing-europe/

 

The EU is failing. We got out at the right time. History will be very kind to Brexit. 

 

The Scots should be thanking Westminster. 

 

 

 

 

The clear and consistent majority of UK voters disagree with you - as they have done in poll after poll after poll, year after year. Clearly the Brexit benefits that you continuously crow about are not being felt by the rest of the population. 

 

https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

 

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Posted

So where's my wager going for the next PM? Farage or Galloway?

 

30 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Correct. The Tories have drifted to the point there is very little between them and Labour now (except for the rhetoric). 

 

Two wings of the same bird; two sides of the same coin; two cheeks of the same ass (as George Galloway so eloquently puts it)

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Posted
1 minute ago, RuamRudy said:

 

The clear and consistent majority of UK voters disagree with you - as they have done in poll after poll after poll, year after year. Clearly the Brexit benefits that you continuously crow about are not being felt by the rest of the population. 

 

https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

 

image.png.dafd24b655bc4d34f63a1d665945eec1.png

 

 

 

Oh I see the issue here, I was talking about the actual facts about the UK economy, not some leading questions on a dodgy opinion poll.

 

Either way, we're out now and voting Labour won't change that. If Labour were so sure people wanted to rejoin they would stand on a manifesto of a second referendum to rejoin. They are not. Why? Because they know it would cost them the election. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Oh I see the issue here, I was talking about the actual facts about the UK economy, not some leading questions on a dodgy opinion poll.

 

Either way, we're out now and voting Labour won't change that. If Labour were so sure people wanted to rejoin they would stand on a manifesto of a second referendum to rejoin. They are not. Why? Because they know it would cost them the election. 

 

If your 'facts' reflected what people feel on the streets, why is the whole country not constantly enraptured by the daily showering of Brexit blessings that you are convinced are pouring down like manna from heaven? Whether you approve of polls or not, there have been precious few which have shown any sort of support for Brexit since 2017.

 

But I agree with you, it is bewildering that Labour are refusing to acknowledge what the majority of the UK wants - a return to the EU. Hopefully, the gap between the rejoiners and those in denial will continue to grow (and there is certainly no sign of and that changing) and at some point in the future, some wise individual will positively redress this historic act of self sabotage. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

A protest vote.

 

Why did traditional red wall voters vote for Boris en masse giving him a huge majority in 2019? Because they were sick of Labour ignoring their Brexit vote and were prepared to hold their nose. Nobody predicted that, including you. So are you saying red wall voters can vote for Boris but Tory voters cannot vote Labour? It's not a logical argument. 

 

Many people are fed up with the Tories and want to teach them a lesson. Since there is very little between them and Labour these days, they probably think it won't make much difference and want to stick it to the Tories. 

 

If they now have a choice of how to do that (Labour or Reform) I predict they will choose Reform to demonstrate what they want the Tories to be. Right of centre. They don't need to vote Labour to stick it to the Tories any more. It's an easy out. I believe this will cost Labour the votes of disillusioned Conservatives.

 

I don't need an opinion piece from The Telegraph (or The Guardian) to convince me, because we are all making a prediction and I have stated my reasons for reaching my conclusion. I think this could make the election a lot closer than polls are suggesting and I wouldn't rule out a hung Parliament. 

Good luck with that protest vote.


Maybe the Tories can promise to ‘get something done’ or off a ‘Leveling Up’ bung.

 

Or perhaps the electorate have been suckered once too many times.

 

The idea that rightwing voters fed up with the Tories drifting left (I itself a fallacy) voting Labour is perhaps one of the most whacked out political analyses I’ve come across.

 

Is there even a reputable analyst saying Reform are a threat to Labour?

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
15 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Oh I see the issue here, I was talking about the actual facts about the UK economy, not some leading questions on a dodgy opinion poll.

 

Either way, we're out now and voting Labour won't change that. If Labour were so sure people wanted to rejoin they would stand on a manifesto of a second referendum to rejoin. They are not. Why? Because they know it would cost them the election. 

There is zero point putting rejoining the EU in a Labour Manifesto.

 

The EU will not negotiate until both major political parties agree to rejoin.

 

The parties are lagging public opinion, they will eventually catch up.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

There is zero point putting rejoining the EU in a Labour Manifesto.

 

Well, if everyone wanted to rejoin then it would get them into power. They are not doing it because they know it is not popular.

 

11 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

The EU will not negotiate until both major political parties agree to rejoin.

 

Doesn't matter. They could get power and hold the referendum. Then win it (according to you). Then start negotiations. 

 

11 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

The parties are lagging public opinion, they will eventually catch up.

 

Nonsense. They know public opinion perfectly well which is why they won't touch it with a bargepole. It's a vote loser. It's over. Let go. 

Posted
22 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Hopefully, the gap between the rejoiners and those in denial will continue to grow (and there is certainly no sign of and that changing) and at some point in the future, some wise individual will positively redress this historic act of self sabotage. 

 

Probably the same day William Wallace is reincarnated and leads the proud Scots to Independence. 😃

 

It's over. Let go. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Please don't tell me that there are Brits living in Thailand with Thai wives and Thai children who are concerned about immigration into Britain?

 

Too funny, but yes there are. They're always honking loudly about foreigners while balancing on their bar stools like performing seals.

 

I'm a Brit, living in Thailand with a Thai wife and dual-nationality children, who shares deep concerns over the abysmally poor Thai education system as well as the extortionately high bar that the UK Tories places on those families wishing to come home to improve their choices. I mean, we would all be flying in on Singapore Air Business Class and not by some inflatable on a deserted beach in Kent.

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Posted

what a dummy. why would you want use that slogan as yours. you just sound weak. what a simp. 

 

make farrage irrelevant again. 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Well, if everyone wanted to rejoin then it would get them into power. They are not doing it because they know it is not popular.

 

 

Doesn't matter. They could get power and hold the referendum. Then win it (according to you). Then start negotiations. 

 

 

Nonsense. They know public opinion perfectly well which is why they won't touch it with a bargepole. It's a vote loser. It's over. Let go. 

Got any polls to back those claims up ?

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Posted
47 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

If your 'facts' reflected what people feel on the streets, why is the whole country not constantly enraptured by the daily showering of Brexit blessings that you are convinced are pouring down like manna from heaven? Whether you approve of polls or not, there have been precious few which have shown any sort of support for Brexit since 2017.

 

But I agree with you, it is bewildering that Labour are refusing to acknowledge what the majority of the UK wants - a return to the EU. Hopefully, the gap between the rejoiners and those in denial will continue to grow (and there is certainly no sign of and that changing) and at some point in the future, some wise individual will positively redress this historic act of self sabotage. 

No reason why Labour can't negotiate new terms with the EU that would help the UK economy.

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Posted
2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Looks like the left are panicking. 😃

 

Given what he did with his election to the EU Parliament with the Bexit Party, I'm not surprised.

 

I suspect a lot of people disillusioned with Labour/Conservatives who may not have voted will now make the journey to the polling station, even if it is a protest vote. 

 

This certainly makes the election more interesting, it would have been a snooze fest with Starmer and Sunak 'battling' it out. Imagine what could happen in the event of a hung parliament. A Tory/Reform coalition?

Labour will win a big victory on July 4. Reform will have a tiny vote.

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Posted
3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

If by failure, you mean outperforming France and Germany.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/26/even-lacklustre-britain-outperforming-failing-europe/

 

The EU is failing. We got out at the right time. History will be very kind to Brexit. 

 

The Scots should be thanking Westminster. 

 

 

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/#:~:text=GDP growth in recent years,over this period at 8.7%.

 

Sure, over the previous quarter. But over a year, it's dismal. 2nd only to Germany for scraping along.

Posted
58 minutes ago, James105 said:

 

I think Reform will pick up votes from the disillusioned (like myself) who were not going to bother voting but now have something different to vote for.  The system is too rigged for a non establishment party to win outright (or even win a handful of seats), but it wouldn't surprise me if they managed to get 15-20% of the overall vote.   Maybe when people realise that Labour are just an even more wasteful shambles of a party than the Tories then next time they may be able to do something.  

Make that 1.5 - 2% at best. Who are they?

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