Joe Biden Favored to Beat Donald Trump in 538 Election Forecast

[Social Media]

 

President Joe Biden is currently favored to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 election, according to a forecast model by the polling and forecasting website 538, formerly known as FiveThirtyEight. In a prediction simulation conducted by 538, Biden emerged victorious 53 times out of 100, while Trump won 47 times out of 100. This forecast considers a variety of factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data.

 

With less than five months remaining until the 2024 election, Biden and Trump, who is the presumptive Republican nominee, appear to be in a tight race, reminiscent of their previous contest. Biden, at 81 years old, is facing the election with historically low approval ratings and ongoing concerns about his age. On the other hand, Trump is attempting to secure a second term despite becoming the first U.S. president in history to be convicted of a crime, with a New York jury finding him guilty of 34 felony counts in a hush money trial last month.

 

On June 11, 538 published their official forecast for the 2024 election, showing Biden slightly ahead in what is expected to be a close race. The model predicts that Biden has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election, indicating that he is slightly more likely than Trump to come out on top. Trump, with a 47-in-100 chance, is not far behind, suggesting that the election outcome could still swing either way as November approaches. 

 

G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for 538, explained the forecast's range of realistic Electoral College outcomes: “The range of realistic Electoral College outcomes generated by our forecasting model stretches from 132 to 445 electoral votes for Biden—a testament to how much things could change by November (and how off the polls could be).” Despite Biden's slight lead, Trump is currently just ahead in the polls, particularly in key swing states that could determine the election's outcome.

 

The forecast model also incorporates various economic and political indicators that may favor Biden. Morris noted, "To forecast the election, we rely primarily on polls asking voters whom they support. However, our forecast also incorporates various economic and political indicators that aren't related to polling but can be used to make rough predictions for the election."

 

Historical trends also suggest that incumbent presidents have a better chance when running for reelection. However, predictions can be skewed due to high political polarization, as is currently the case. Historian and writer Varad Mehta highlighted an alternative view on X (formerly Twitter), noting that DDHQ's forecast slightly favors Trump. The difference in predictions lies in their assessments of the key "blue wall" states, with 538 forecasting Biden winning all three and DDHQ predicting Trump victories in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin based on current polling data.

 

Lawyer James Debate commented on the 538 forecast, saying, "Biden narrowly favored to win Presidential election according to 538's new forecast. I've been dunking a lot on 538 this cycle, but this is a surprisingly solid forecast and seems about right for the current polling." He also noted that 538 might be overestimating Kennedy's vote share, suggesting that third-party candidates' support tends to be overrated in polls.

 

538 plans to rerun its forecast simulator daily until November's election, updating it based on the latest data. This approach aims to provide the most accurate prediction possible as the political landscape continues to evolve leading up to Election Day.

 

Credit: Newsweek 2024-06-13

 

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[Tug]

I just don’t believe Americans are going to vote into office a guy who wants to suspend the constitution tells putin to have his murderous way with nato countrys is responsible for stealing a woman’s right of autonomy over her own body has run our debt up 24% for nothing has no policies naa I’m not buying it he’s gonna lose again bigley!+ there’s lots and lots more reasons ain’t gonna happen!

[Snackbar]

+\- 6 pointless

[Jingthing]

Better to look at this guy.

 

 

 

[thesetat2013]

2 hours ago, Social Media said:

President Joe Biden is currently favored to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 election, according to a forecast model by the polling and forecasting website 538, formerly known as FiveThirtyEight. In a prediction simulation conducted by 538, Biden emerged victorious 53 times out of 100, while Trump won 47 times out of 100. This forecast considers a variety of factors, including adjusted polling averages, economic and political indicators, and demographic data.

So not only are we getting AI generated news articles but now we are getting AI generated forecasts trying to predict how people feel and what they will choose in the upcoming elections. 

[Jingthing]

Here's my prediction. 100 percent accuracy.

Either the democratic or republican nominee will win the electoral college.

If the republican nominee is the convicted felon and adjudicated rapist as expected, he will still claim that he won even if he loses and his dangerous cult will believe him just as they still believe he won in 2020 even though he lost.

[pomchop]

52 minutes ago, Tug said:

I just don’t believe Americans are going to vote into office a guy who wants to suspend the constitution tells putin to have his murderous way with nato countrys is responsible for stealing a woman’s right of autonomy over her own body has run our debt up 24% for nothing has no policies naa I’m not buying it he’s gonna lose again bigley!+ there’s lots and lots more reasons ain’t gonna happen!

 

Hard to believe that trump is even in the race.....frankly i can not imagine what so many americans who are lucky enough to have nice homes, nice cars, and live a life that is the absolute envy of billions of people who were not lucky enough to be born or end up in the usa can only dream of....what the F are they so angry about that they are willing to role the dice on a dictator revenge seeking con man like trump.  I do have some amount of hope that they will come to their senses when and if they start to pay attention to what is coming out of trumps mouth and say enough is enough.....One of trumps favorite bunch of right wing rednecks the southern baptist association just voted to ban women from being ministers as well as come out overwhelming against IVF....welcome to the Taliban ladies.  Stay in your place and do as you are told.

[bamnutsak]

Oh, 538.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

Polls are useless.

 

Fewer than 100,000 people's votes will decide a potentially narrow (I think Trump will win) election, in a few states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

[Gsxrnz]

It's a tad presumptive to assume that Biden will even win the nomination. Odds on that "for health reasons" he is replaced by Newsom or Mrs. Obama.

 

Even the DNC know that a three-legged donkey can't win the Kentucky Derby. 

Edited June 12 by Gsxrnz

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

It's a tad presumptive to assume that Biden will even win the nomination. Odds on that "for health reasons" he is replaced by Newsom or Mrs. Obama.

 

Even the DNC know that a three-legged donkey can't win the Kentucky Derby. 

You have zero credibility mentioning Michelle Obama. She has zero interest in ever running. You're just repeating another moronic maga conspiracy theory.

It's not probable that either presumed nominee will drop out due to health reasons but it's possible for both of them. Biden is a tad older but healthier than junk food Trump. 

[CharlieKo]

Will Americans be that dumb that they vote for a senile old man who probably doesn't know where he is most of the time. I'm not saying Trump would win against a better opponent . But seriously  voting for Biden would really be dumb! 

Edited June 13 by CharlieKo

[CharlieKo]

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Biden is a tad older but healthier than junk food Trump. 

5555. You have got to be joking! Open your eyes just look at that senile old man Biden. Or are you one of those dumb Americans? 

[WDSmart]

I hope! I hope! I hope! 

But, there are five months left until the election, and a lot can happen in that time. 

[Tug]

1 minute ago, CharlieKo said:

Will Americans be that dumb that they vote for a senile old man who probably doesn't know where he is most of the time. I'm not saying Trump would win against a better opponent . But seriously  voting for Biden would really be dumb! 

I’m telling ya I just gotta get that president gig heck if a potted plant can reinvigorate nato add 2 top tier members support a democratic nation being invaded by a criminal despot….grow the economy the best on the planet btw add a gizillion more jobs fight inflation get good positive legislation done for the American people there’s more lots more not to shabby for a (potted) plant as you infer all this as he stands by his son……potted plant indeed

[EVENKEEL]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

I just don’t believe Americans are going to vote into office a guy who wants to suspend the constitution tells putin to have his murderous way with nato countrys is responsible for stealing a woman’s right of autonomy over her own body has run our debt up 24% for nothing has no policies naa I’m not buying it he’s gonna lose again bigley!+ there’s lots and lots more reasons ain’t gonna happen!

Lay off the bug juice. Only use it for cleaning brass.

[CharlieKo]

3 minutes ago, Tug said:

I’m telling ya I just gotta get that president gig heck if a potted plant can reinvigorate nato add 2 top tier members support a democratic nation being invaded by a criminal despot….grow the economy the best on the planet btw add a gizillion more jobs fight inflation get good positive legislation done for the American people there’s more lots more not to shabby for a (potted) plant as you infer all this as he stands by his son……potted plant indeed

 

 

Edited June 13 by CharlieKo

[Jingthing]

23 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

Will Americans be that dumb that they vote for a senile old man who probably doesn't know where he is most of the time. I'm not saying Trump would win against a better opponent . But seriously  voting for Biden would really be dumb! 

Will Americans be that dumb to elect a Putin loving wannabe fascist dictator who is a convicted felon who couldn't even be hired as a mall cop. 

Edited June 13 by Jingthing

[2baht]

Surely Americans are not so stupid as to re elect the fool, Lyin' Donzo! Come on America, show us some common sense, keep the geriatric Wonky Joe, I think he is almost up to another term! 

[mania]

Steve Forbes thinks Joe will drop out completely

 

 

[mfd101]

The mere fact that the (likely) choice is between a senile ol' man who can't remember where he is and a nasty and dangerous elderly criminal with dictatorial tendencies says nothing good about the Usofan electorate.

 

Short of both of them being eliminated (one way or another) before the election, nothing's going to improve.

[Luuk Chaai]

total Bullsh**

[stoner]

50 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

Mrs. Obama.

 

this is the only way the dems win... and what a historic win it would be. the biggest landslide in american history. 

[KhunLA]

Yay   

[neeray]

There's a good chance both "old men" will be replaced during the summer, party conventions. 

[TedG]

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president

 

 

US election | Donald Trump has a two-in-three chance of winning in November

[bunnydrops]

Trump cares about the important things. We need to keep him talking

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/06/12/trump-shark-battery-biden-threat-election/74063059007/

[Hanaguma]

A lot will depend on who Trump picks as his running mate. Chances of the Donald or ol' Joe stroking out and not being able to serve out the full 4 years is pretty damn high. We already know that if Joe wins, Kamala is in the on deck circle. A total disaster. If Trump picks someone moderately sane and palatable to the public it will do him a world of good. 

 

[cncltd1973]

1 hour ago, CharlieKo said:

Will Americans be that dumb that they vote for a senile old man who probably doesn't know where he is most of the time. I'm not saying Trump would win against a better opponent . But seriously  voting for Biden would really be dumb! 

you have to look past the candidates at this point, it's more about for the president's cabinet and advisors. professionals at the table vs rag-tag misfits and family members trying their hand at the political helm of the greatest empire and war machine the world has ever known

[Hanaguma]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

I’m telling ya I just gotta get that president gig heck if a potted plant can reinvigorate nato add 2 top tier members support a democratic nation being invaded by a criminal despot….grow the economy the best on the planet btw add a gizillion more jobs fight inflation get good positive legislation done for the American people there’s more lots more not to shabby for a (potted) plant as you infer all this as he stands by his son……potted plant indeed

Well, perhaps people are nostalgic about 2 dollar gas 1.5% inflation record low unemployment for minorities Middle East peace criminal justice reform the Abraham Accords low mortgage rates no new wars...

[CanadaSam]

333 million people, and they can't find anybody better to lead them than (A) a bald faced chronic liar and criminal, or (B) a senile geriatric. 

 

Laughable (unless you factor in the seriousness of the issue).