Shocking slump: Thailand’s premium EV sales plunge 35%

[rattlesnake]

I was in Vientiane, Laos a couple of months ago and got chatting to a taxi driver. A friend of his bought an EV and after a couple of years, the battery died and the price to replace it was apparently 200,000 baht, a sum his friend could not even dream of and therefore the EV was rendered useless, a big source of stress and disappointment.

 

EVs are the product of an ideology, which, as all ideologies, is full of contradictions. It is gaining traction in Western countries because of government subsidies (Macron, for instance, has implemented a scheme where the average French household can lease one for €100 per month), but I am not surprised that it should quickly hit the wall of reality in the third world.

[transam]

If the thread heading is fact, then perhaps those thinking of going electric 'may' have heard not so good reports from LOS buyer friends about the rides not being as user-friendly as there 20 year old Toyota, which rarely let them down, plus they could still sell it.

 

I also do not believe that some LOS EV buyers have never had a problem, and getting an EV problem fixed maybe not easy, the ride off the road, whilst they are scratching their heads, unlike a 20 year old Toyota..........🤔

 

The couple of blokes that bolster these EV thread's, I reckon, would 'never' tell us they have an EV headache, if they had one, the threads are a one-way street for them.........

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, In the jungle said:

 

Hmm......

 

Given that probably 50% of the vehicles being used on Thai roads as 'cars' are pickup trucks and PPVs that renders analysis based on category RY 1 alone pretty misleading.

 

And once we start seeing EV pickups then we should compare them too. 

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, transam said:

If the thread heading is fact, then perhaps those thinking of going electric 'may' have heard not so good reports from LOS buyer friends about the rides not being as user-friendly as there 20 year old Toyota, which rarely let them down, plus they could still sell it.

 

I also do not believe that some LOS EV buyers have never had a problem, and getting an EV problem fixed maybe not easy, the ride off the road, whilst they are scratching their heads, unlike a 20 year old Toyota..........🤔

 

The couple of blokes that bolster these EV thread's, I reckon, would 'never' tell us they have an EV headache, if they had one, the threads are a one-way street for them.........

 

 

 

They would be interesting if it were true.

 

I have said on several occasions my pure EV German car let me down twice, both times air conditioning blowing hot.  It had to be trailered back from Chiang Rai to the authorised agent both times.

[transam]

Just now, JBChiangRai said:

 

They would be interesting if it were true.

 

I have said on several occasions my pure EV German car let me down twice, both times air conditioning blowing hot.  It had to be trailered back from Chiang Rai to the authorised agent both times.

Which is then one reason for the EV downturn, a minor ICE problem that can be fixed easily.

Who in LOS wants that kind of grief........

[In the jungle]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

And once we start seeing EV pickups then we should compare them too. 

 

So you are including some ICE pickup trucks in your figures and excluding others. 

 

The number of ICE pickup trucks arbitrarily excluded far exceeds EV sales in Thailand!

[billd766]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

meaningless to you maybe but I am sure there are other forum members who are interested in the different types of  DLT types of vehicle categories and the numbers of ICE/EV registrations for each group

Here are the vehicle categories and they all have either ICE or EV vehicles

R.Y. 1 Private passenger car with no more than 7 people
R.Y. 2 Private passenger cars with more than 7 people
R.Y. 3 Personal trucks
R.Y. 4 personal three-wheeled vehicle
R.Y. 6 Vehicles for hire carrying no more than 7 passengers.
R.Y. 8 Three-wheeled rental car
R.Y. 9 Business service vehicles
R.Y. 10 Sightseeing service car
R.Y. 11 Car rental service
R.Y. 13 Tractor
R.Y. 12 Motorcycle
R.Y. 13 Tractor
R.Y. 14 road roller
R Y. 15 Vehicles used in agricultural work
R.Y. 16 trailer
R.Y. 17 Public Motorcycles

Thank you again.

 

It seems that some people don't like numbers, but many more of us do.

 

Trends mean very little, and can change overnight.

 

That is why some people are called trendsetters.

 

A different week, a different fad or trend.

[vinny41]

43 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Thank you again.

 

It seems that some people don't like numbers, but many more of us do.

 

Trends mean very little, and can change overnight.

 

That is why some people are called trendsetters.

 

A different week, a different fad or trend.

Thanks you might find this article is an interesting read

In this article, we apply Everett Rogers’ theory, Diffusion of Innovations, to electric car innovations in order to understand some of the characteristics of current early adopters of electric vehicles. In our examination of the EV adoption curve, we find five segments of adopter groups: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards.

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

Diffusion of Innovation Theory

https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/sb/behavioralchangetheories/behavioralchangetheories4.html

EV adoption curve has to include all vehicles on the road otherwise EV's will never be considered mass market if the majority of vehicles on the road are ICE

[ExpatOilWorker]

15 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

EV adoption curve has to include all vehicles on the road otherwise EV's will never be considered mass market if the majority of vehicles on the road are ICE

Just out of curiosity and since you have the numbers, what is the precentage of EV on Thai roads out of ALL vehicles?

Must be way under 1%.

[JBChiangRai]

2 hours ago, transam said:

Which is then one reason for the EV downturn, a minor ICE problem that can be fixed easily.

Who in LOS wants that kind of grief........

 

I'm not sure I understand you, could you repeat it in English?

 

The same problem on my car affected the ICE cars from the same manufacturer.  The OEM who provided the pressure sensors for the aircon on all their cars sent them a bad batch.

 

I wasn't happy, that is true, but I present it as it is, not selectively as you suggested.

 

2 hours ago, In the jungle said:

 

So you are including some ICE pickup trucks in your figures and excluding others. 

 

The number of ICE pickup trucks arbitrarily excluded far exceeds EV sales in Thailand!

 

I am including all RY1 category of EV's and RY1 category of ICE, apples to apples. The figures came from @ExpatOilWorker, they are in the same format we have been using for many months.  i think it may be autolife or DLT who provide them, I'm sure he can elucidate.

 

12 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Just out of curiosity and since you have the numbers, what is the precentage of EV on Thai roads out of ALL vehicles?

Must be way under 1%.

 

Probably under 1%, There are 2.5 billion cars on the road worldwide. 

 

Currently more than 1 in 8 new car sales is EV in Thailand.

[connda]

Overpriced.  Lack of infrastructure to charge.  Unreliable electric grids.  PITA to schedule trips and charging stops unless you are independently wealthy and can afford the most expensive cars.

And you expected what? 

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, connda said:

Overpriced.  Lack of infrastructure to charge.  Unreliable electric grids.  PITA to schedule trips and charging stops unless you are independently wealthy and can afford the most expensive cars.

And you expected what? 

Do you really believe all that?

[vinny41]

8 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Just out of curiosity and since you have the numbers, what is the precentage of EV on Thai roads out of ALL vehicles?

Must be way under 1%.

Total number of vehicles registered as of 30th June 2024 is 44,691,715

This figure includes vehicles registered under the  Land Transport Act which is 1,380,211 which seems to cover buses and a type of truck 

Total Vehicle under Motor Vehicle Act 43,311,504

Total number of EV's registered between 2019 and 30th June 2024  182,261

Total precentage of EV's registered against total number of registered vehicles is 0.41%

 

[motdaeng]

10 minutes ago, connda said:

Overpriced.  Lack of infrastructure to charge.  Unreliable electric grids.  PITA to schedule trips and charging stops unless you are independently wealthy and can afford the most expensive cars.

And you expected what? 

 

how about educate yourself first with  data and facts instead of relying on outdated stereotypes? 

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

15 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Total number of vehicles registered as of 30th June 2024 is 44,691,715

This figure includes vehicles registered under the  Land Transport Act which is 1,380,211 which seems to cover buses and a type of truck 

Total Vehicle under Motor Vehicle Act 43,311,504

Total number of EV's registered between 2019 and 30th June 2024  182,261

Total precentage of EV's registered against total number of registered vehicles is 0.41%

 

That may be true, but more than one in eight new cars sold is currently an EV.  I’m sure you are seeing them everywhere on the roads.

 

Do you deny climate change too?

[vinny41]

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

That may be true, but more than one in eight new cars sold is currently an EV.  I’m sure you are seeing them everywhere on the roads.

 

Do you deny climate change too?

Unlikely to see them everywhere in mass numbers compared to the 44,508,478 ICE vehicles on the road

Haven't seen any of the EV supporters mention climate change their posts are mainly focused on performance and the 0-100 kph such as 3.8

[proton]

On 7/23/2024 at 10:46 AM, simon43 said:

I was talking to one of my online students in Hong Kong.  He was sitting in a restaurant because he and family had to stay for 2 hours in the shopping mall while the family EV was recharging....

 

Why didn't you recharge the car before you came out? I asked.  There is no EV charging at home - they live in a high-rise condo and the only EV charging is at the shopping mall and garages....

 

My wife used to teach at a high rise condo in Bkk. The woman bought an EV and just slung a cable 7 floors down to charge the car!

[Startmeup]

Nothing shocking about it, I said as much a few months ago on here. Hybrids are and will be the go to "environmentally friendly" passenger vehicles for the masses who think they can reverse climate change until battery tech and cost improves drastically. The numbers dont lie.
 

 

Edited July 24 by Startmeup

[mogandave]

pet rocks 

[LivinLOS]

4 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

Based upon your extensive experience owning EVs over the past few decades?

 

or is that just your uniformed opinion?

Well the fact that current battery tech doesnt !! 

 

[billd766]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Thanks you might find this article is an interesting read

In this article, we apply Everett Rogers’ theory, Diffusion of Innovations, to electric car innovations in order to understand some of the characteristics of current early adopters of electric vehicles. In our examination of the EV adoption curve, we find five segments of adopter groups: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards.

https://www.exro.com/industry-insights/early-adopters-of-electric-vehicles-the-ev-adoption-curve

Diffusion of Innovation Theory

https://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/mph-modules/sb/behavioralchangetheories/behavioralchangetheories4.html

EV adoption curve has to include all vehicles on the road otherwise EV's will never be considered mass market if the majority of vehicles on the road are ICE

They were interesting links and from the first link I am either in the late adopter or the laggard group.

 

I am 80 and though I still drive a bit TBH I feel that I am to old and stuck in my ways. If I were to enter the market for an EV it would probably be an electric trike or a 4 wheel version of one.

 

I live in rural Kamphaeng Phet and the nearest public charging station is some 60 km away and the local PEA has a habit of browning out or sometimes losing 1 phase once or twice a week, sometimes for 10 seconds or so and other times for 2 hours or more.

 

And this is before there are any EVs locally, so what it would be like if there were only 10% EVs charging at the same time I have no idea.

 

EVs at the moment are OK if you are a commuter and if you have a dedicated home charging system but for longer distance driving they don't seem too practical once you get off the main highways due to a lack of charging stations, certainly in rural Thailand.

 

Then there is research going on with other fuels such as hydrogen etc which may be cheaper and more plentiful once they can get their act together, though there may be storage and delivery problems with that in the future. 

[DonniePeverley]

Does that mean the red black smoking pumping diesel polluting busses are here to stay ?

 

 

[G_Money]

The flame on EV and Green movements appear to be flickering until extinguished.

Edited July 24 by G_Money

[motdaeng]

25 minutes ago, G_Money said:

The flame on EV and Green movements appear to be flickering until extinguished.

 

i would say the opposite is true. some countries are adopting ev's faster than others,

but ev's will definitely be part of future mobility ...

 

as many ev owners have already said on this forum : "ev's aren't for everyone ..."

[Bandersnatch]

8 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

Well the fact that current battery tech doesnt !! 

 

What’s with you guys!

 

Why does nobody post any evidence to support their statements?

 

Do you expect everyone to just believe what you say as fact?

 

“So far, the typical EV battery has been proven to last about 200,000 miles, nearly 20 years. Tesla is rumored to be developing an EV battery that will last 1,000,000 miles, much longer than the average vehicle, currently 11.9 years”

https://www.lifewire.com/do-evs-last-as-long-as-gasoline-cars-5202392

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

The journey to understand EV owners always start with the first step: walk in their shoes.

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

15 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

What’s with you guys!

 

Why does nobody post any evidence to support their statements?

 

Do you expect everyone to just believe what you say as fact?

 

“So far, the typical EV battery has been proven to last about 200,000 miles, nearly 20 years. Tesla is rumored to be developing an EV battery that will last 1,000,000 miles, much longer than the average vehicle, currently 11.9 years”

https://www.lifewire.com/do-evs-last-as-long-as-gasoline-cars-5202392

 

The EVangelists always have some wonder future technology battery technology up their sleeve.  Solid state is their favorite. 

Meanwhile in the real world things break down.

 

Hansjorg von Gemmingen-Hornberg purchased his Model S in 2014 with just 18,641 miles. Since acquiring the car, he has driven close to 1.24 million miles, during which he needed 14 different engines and replaced the battery pack four times.

https://essanews.com/retirees-tesla-model-s-hits-1-24-million-miles-with-14-engines,7013392170690177a#:~:text=Hansjorg von Gemmingen-Hornberg purchased,the battery pack four times.

[JBChiangRai]

8 hours ago, billd766 said:

They were interesting links and from the first link I am either in the late adopter or the laggard group.

 

I am 80 and though I still drive a bit TBH I feel that I am to old and stuck in my ways. If I were to enter the market for an EV it would probably be an electric trike or a 4 wheel version of one.

 

I live in rural Kamphaeng Phet and the nearest public charging station is some 60 km away and the local PEA has a habit of browning out or sometimes losing 1 phase once or twice a week, sometimes for 10 seconds or so and other times for 2 hours or more.

 

And this is before there are any EVs locally, so what it would be like if there were only 10% EVs charging at the same time I have no idea.

 

EVs at the moment are OK if you are a commuter and if you have a dedicated home charging system but for longer distance driving they don't seem too practical once you get off the main highways due to a lack of charging stations, certainly in rural Thailand.

 

Then there is research going on with other fuels such as hydrogen etc which may be cheaper and more plentiful once they can get their act together, though there may be storage and delivery problems with that in the future. 

 

I guess your nearest charging stations (CS) is at Robinsons?  I have used that one.

 

My home is a few hundred meters from the transformer and we often lose one phase.  One of the advantages of an EV is I just plug my house into the car when I get home.  I had a sparky fit a little gubbins and when there is a powercut, half a second later I am running off the car.  PEA told me they will double the size of the local transformer because there are a few EV's charging from it now.

 

Most of the local CS are at hotels, coffee shops etc, in Chiang Rai some of them are free.  On the major highways the fast CS are every 20-30km.  You don't need a CS any nearer than 150km to your home if you can charge at home (250km on some cars).

 

A few countries have tried Hydrogen and consumers didn't like it in any of them.  The main issue is cost.  Hydrogen costs about 4 times more than charging an EV and that's an unsolvable major issue without subsidies.  Storage in the car is also a major issue, the tanks take up vast amounts of space and in the Toyota Mirai the rear seats are only suitable for children.  Another issue is time to refill, it's generally about 5 minutes, but often people are waiting another 15 minutes for the nozzle to deice so they can remove it from their car, that would probably be less of an issue in a hot country like Thailand, but it was a major issue in Norway.  Availability was the short- term issue with too few Hydrogen stations, in time that could be fixed if consumer adoption had taken place.

 

1 hour ago, G_Money said:

The flame on EV and Green movements appear to be flickering until extinguished.

 

The barrier for most people is cost.  We are very fortunate in Thailand in so far as there are no punitive taxes on Chinese EV's.  They are good value for money here.

 

Thailand and Norway lead the world.  Demand is growing in Thailand, every month the share of new passenger cars being EV's increases and every month the share of new passenger cars being ICE decreases.  That is true for the last 5 months.  The flame for EV's here is burning brighter every month.

 

America has recognised the potential for Chinese EV's to destroy American Auto Manufacturers and applied immense tariffs.  This is sad for consumers. Rishi Sunak set EV adoption back 5 years in the UK, his successor Keir Starmer is being urged to restore it, time will tell.

[JBChiangRai]

@Bandersnatch just posted this on the Electric Vehicles In Thailand Thread, it's worth watching as it tells you what is really happening, and more importantly, what the future is.

 

 

[G_Money]

46 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I guess your nearest charging stations (CS) is at Robinsons?  I have used that one.

 

My home is a few hundred meters from the transformer and we often lose one phase.  One of the advantages of an EV is I just plug my house into the car when I get home.  I had a sparky fit a little gubbins and when there is a powercut, half a second later I am running off the car.  PEA told me they will double the size of the local transformer because there are a few EV's charging from it now.

 

Most of the local CS are at hotels, coffee shops etc, in Chiang Rai some of them are free.  On the major highways the fast CS are every 20-30km.  You don't need a CS any nearer than 150km to your home if you can charge at home (250km on some cars).

 

A few countries have tried Hydrogen and consumers didn't like it in any of them.  The main issue is cost.  Hydrogen costs about 4 times more than charging an EV and that's an unsolvable major issue without subsidies.  Storage in the car is also a major issue, the tanks take up vast amounts of space and in the Toyota Mirai the rear seats are only suitable for children.  Another issue is time to refill, it's generally about 5 minutes, but often people are waiting another 15 minutes for the nozzle to deice so they can remove it from their car, that would probably be less of an issue in a hot country like Thailand, but it was a major issue in Norway.  Availability was the short- term issue with too few Hydrogen stations, in time that could be fixed if consumer adoption had taken place.

 

 

The barrier for most people is cost.  We are very fortunate in Thailand in so far as there are no punitive taxes on Chinese EV's.  They are good value for money here.

 

Thailand and Norway lead the world.  Demand is growing in Thailand, every month the share of new passenger cars being EV's increases and every month the share of new passenger cars being ICE decreases.  That is true for the last 5 months.  The flame for EV's here is burning brighter every month.

 

America has recognised the potential for Chinese EV's to destroy American Auto Manufacturers and applied immense tariffs.  This is sad for consumers. Rishi Sunak set EV adoption back 5 years in the UK, his successor Keir Starmer is being urged to restore it, time will tell.

That’s nice!  I’ll stick with fossil fuels forever.