Bangkok could be submerged in seven years warns economist

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, BritScot said:

How many times will it take for climate cult to be laughed out of every room in the world? How many times do these prediction have to fail before idiots see the lie? Over 30 prediction and not one has come true! The elites screaming the loudest all have beach front properties worth millions. Just ask yourself one question: can you get a 30 year mortgage in Bangkok, London, or beach fronts around the world? Wake up for god sake!!!

Ask yourself one question: what understanding do you have of the Laws of Thermodynamics?

 

Climate change and global warming are the result of the First and Second Law, respectively. Without understanding those, you are posting from a base of zero knowledge.

[Frenske]

4 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

The Netherlands is for 25% under sea level and have been working on how to control this for a very long time.

So the 1 cm rise of the sea level per 3 years is something you can control but you DO need to work on it.

7 years for BKK is less than 3 cm rise, getting real scared now.

Dutch experts helped Thai authorities to combat Bangkok floods | Dutch Water Sector

The Dutch came up with a plan to rescue Bangkok, but as usual, they didn't do f#ck all with it and now they're feeling sorry for themselves. There was also a longterm plan to combat the water but I can't find the link. I did find the link. Thailand and Netherlands intensify cooperation on water management | Dutch Water Sector. So what could go wrong in the future.

[kwilco]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

A Thai economist warned that Bangkok could be submerged by the sea within the next seven to eight years. The government has been urged to take immediate action to prevent significant economic and social damage.

 

Anusorn Thammajai, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and former member of the National Research Council of Thailand highlighted in a recent discussion the escalating impact of natural disasters on the quality of life and the economy. He pointed out that issues such as flash floods, global warming, and severe climate fluctuations are becoming increasingly problematic.

Research on the La Niña phenomenon in Thailand indicates that it could last for nine to 12 months, leading to lower temperatures and a potential increase in rainfall up to 14 billion cubic metres. This could severely damage the agricultural sector in many areas, causing both droughts and heavy floods.

 

Anusorn stressed that if the government allows the recurrent problems of floods and droughts, combined with over four months of air pollution annually, to continue, the economic and quality of life impacts will worsen.

Anusorn mentioned a Greenpeace study warning that in the next seven to eight years, Bangkok might submerge under the sea, leading to severe economic and social damage if preventive measures are not taken seriously now. The intertwining of the economy and the environment is becoming increasingly significant.

Expressing concern, he noted that Bangkok could be underwater in the future, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and large-scale construction projects by both the government and private sector.

 

Without serious study on Bangkok’s subsidence and the rising sea levels, and without significant investment to prevent Bangkok and its metropolitan area from submerging, the city faces a dire future.

 

According to the Greenpeace study, if over 80% of Bangkok is submerged, the economic damage could be estimated at 18.6 trillion baht, affecting over 10.45 million people.

 

Solutions

 

To address this looming crisis, Anusorn proposed six urgent policies: constructing water barriers, elevating coastal roads, which are large-scale projects requiring substantial budget planning from the government; and planting mangrove forests to act as buffer zones to absorb water and mitigate the impact of sea waves.

 

Planting mangroves along areas from Bang Khun Thian, Samut Songkhram, Samut Sakhon, to Samut Prakan would restore nature and also serve as tourist attractions.

Additionally, he suggested re-organising coastal land use, decentralising investment to regional areas, shifting to renewable energy, and studying the potential relocation of the capital. The policy of moving the capital, akin to Jakarta, should be seriously considered.

 

He urged that the new government must start investing in preventing Bangkok and its metropolitan area from sinking under the sea, reported KhaoSod.

 

by Puntid Tantivangphaisal
Photo courtesy of KhaoSod

 

Source: The Thaiger 2024-08-27

 

 

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So long and thanks for all the fish!

[kwilco]

7 hours ago, JoePai said:

Why not more the Capital to a higher area ?

that is a typical dictatorship move - it allows government to build an island for themselves to keep away the people.

[kwilco]

Bangkok can remain but governments have to recognise that vlimate change is real.

 

WE had a taste of a flooded BKK in 2011/12 - which actually made several major changes to BKK - people permanently moved out of the capital and factories relocated.

 

BKK s a delta that is largely covered over and due to the drainage for building etc the ground underneath is shrinking - thus exacerbating BKK's descent into the sea - measures can be made to save the Capital but they need to hold back the untrammelled development that so blights Bangkok and other parts oof the Kingdom

[brfsa2]

30 years I would believe more easily. Thailand flodings are not because of sea level rises, it's deforestation, bad city planning

and mostly because of the sinking of Bangkok.

 

Sinking of Bangkok is really an interesting thing to read about, there is an amazing research about it and how it started.

The excessive Groundwater retrieval from under the 150m-300m deep under Bangkok for the past 100 years is the major cause of Bangkok soft soil and becoming a sinking city. Thailand didn't invest in clean water filtration plants back then. Now Bangkok is paying the price.

 

 

Quote

Despite various attempts implemented to remedy the crisis, groundwater pumping from the thick aquifer system underneath the city continued to increase from 1.2 million m3/day in the early 1980s to more than 2.0 million m3/day at the turn of the century

 

This is the reason Thai government finally enforced the stop of Groundwater extraction in 2002 I believe. But too late, as always. 

some sources: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/special-reports/640784/city-goes-down-the-sink 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267216772_Geotecnical_Engineering_Problems_and_tentative_solutions_in_Thailand
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Bangkok-soft-soil-zoning-map_fig2_359812965

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223622817_Land_subsidence_in_Bangkok_Thailand

 

 

[Lung Mark]

Gondolas should be a boost to tourism

[ExpatOilWorker]

This is Sukhothai today, Bangkok will be gone next week 😀 😄 😁.

 

[Mark Nothing]

Those who tell the stories rule society.  Plato

 

I smell another lucrative tax scheme on the horizon.

[Purdey]

I don't believe Thai politicians think about long term solutions. They refused to believe Dutch experts when we had that massive flood in 2011. My guess is they will go for quick stopgaps like a wall here and there while buying up all the highland property they can.

[ExpatOilWorker]

8 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Two options - move, as Indonesia is in the process is doing. Or build dikes.

 

Either way, it will be very expensive.

Or the third option, raise Bangkok and dredge out rivers and channels.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Bangkok 2050.

[Lacessit]

26 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Or the third option, raise Bangkok and dredge out rivers and channels.

That would be a neat trick, raising a 50 floor condo. Has it been done anywhere?

 

How many high rise buildings are there in Bangkok, anyway?

[ExpatOilWorker]

23 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

That would be a neat trick, raising a 50 floor condo. Has it been done anywhere?

 

How many high rise buildings are there in Bangkok, anyway?

Not raise a building, not even a city block, but the entire greater Bangkok, all 1,500 km2.

Inject water 💧 into a suitable aquifer 2-3,000 m below Bangkok.

Total cost: $15 billion

[richard_smith237]

30 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

That would be a neat trick, raising a 50 floor condo. Has it been done anywhere?

 

How many high rise buildings are there in Bangkok, anyway?

Loads, at at some point in time they will need to be 'razed'...    There are loads of condos some are older and will need to be demolished as they become unsafe due to age, building standards, structural integrity etc, potentail erosion of foundations etc...   

[lordgrinz]

8 hours ago, klauskunkel said:

The government is convening right now to discuss how best to profit individually from this situation.

 

Committee, then a committee to check the reports from the committee, then another committee to check the work of the committee checking the  committee.......rinse, repeat. A few trillion baht later, and after the city sinks into the ocean, they'll find someone of lower level importance to charge with malfeasance.

[Lacessit]

10 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Loads, at at some point in time they will need to be 'razed'...    There are loads of condos some are older and will need to be demolished as they become unsafe due to age, building standards, structural integrity etc, potentail erosion of foundations etc...   

According to Gemini, there are 181 skyscrapers higher than 150 meters. There are probably hundreds more high rises under that height.

 

Perhaps one solution would be to relocate all the power , water and communications infrastructure several floors up, and let Bangkok become another Venice.

[connda]

Of course it will be.  However, it can be saved if all Thai citizens contribute 25% of their income to save Bangkok from Climate Change^TM

[sanabavy IV]

But what about Pattaya? 🥹

[lordgrinz]

3 minutes ago, sanabavy IV said:

But what about Pattaya? 🥹

 

With any hope it will be washed off the face of the Earth, then they can build a "family friendly" city farther inland 😉

[Acharn]

I remember reading a similar prediction fifty years ago. I don't remember who the person was who made the prediction. The point he made was that Bangkok has been draining water from underground sources, which causes the city to sink. IIRC it was a couple of centimeters a year. I've seen similar predictions over the years since I came back. Of course now we've got global warming, which really can't be denied any more, so if the Antarctic and Greenland ice melts I'm sure Bangkok will be drowned, but it's not going to happen in my lifetime (I'm 87 years old).

[CHdiver]

No problem, just point some ships with the aft towards the sea, give full throttle and push the water back. Not my idea, that was the idea of some high up Thai politician during the last big flood. Thai magic, it will work.

[lordgrinz]

1 minute ago, CHdiver said:

No problem, just point some ships with the aft towards the sea, give full throttle and push the water back. Not my idea, that was the idea of some high up Thai politician during the last big flood. Thai magic, it will work.

 

Forgo the magic, just get everyone to wear one of those lucky Amulets, they ward off danger from anywhere.

[NorthernRyland]

If I had a quarter for every "... is going to be underwater" story I've heard over the last 30 years  I'd be rich!

[speckio]

A Thai economist warned that Bangkok could be submerged by the sea within the next seven to eight years.

 

The guy who cuts my hair said almost the same thing but he claims its closer to 9 to 10 years.

He can predict the future by observing how strands of hair fall to the ground after cutting.

[keysersoze276]

This was predicted at least 20 years ago and seems to be on par with past predictions.  There are 2 reasons this is happening.  1.  Climate change/ global warming (obviously). But it doesn’t stop there. 2.  Bangkok is heavier than it was decades before.  The constant construction of buildings actually sinks the city.  These skyscrapers are contributing to the threat, causing the end result to happen faster.  Buy a condo, buy a boat. Or learn to swim like a rat in a swage pipe. 

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Or the third option, raise Bangkok and dredge out rivers and channels.

tht would have the opposite effect.

 

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, brfsa2 said:

30 years I would believe more easily. Thailand flodings are not because of sea level rises, it's deforestation, bad city planning

and mostly because of the sinking of Bangkok.

 

Sinking of Bangkok is really an interesting thing to read about, there is an amazing research about it and how it started.

The excessive Groundwater retrieval from under the 150m-300m deep under Bangkok for the past 100 years is the major cause of Bangkok soft soil and becoming a sinking city. Thailand didn't invest in clean water filtration plants back then. Now Bangkok is paying the price.

 

 

 

This is the reason Thai government finally enforced the stop of Groundwater extraction in 2002 I believe. But too late, as always. 

some sources: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/special-reports/640784/city-goes-down-the-sink 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267216772_Geotecnical_Engineering_Problems_and_tentative_solutions_in_Thailand
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Bangkok-soft-soil-zoning-map_fig2_359812965

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223622817_Land_subsidence_in_Bangkok_Thailand

 

 

 

Bangkok's problems are multiple and nuanced - A 2021 study released in the Science Essence Journal on sea level changes in the Gulf of Thailand showed that water levels have linearly increased between 0.72 and 19.19 millimeters per year in between 1977 and 2019. 

As fro ground water - the drainage has continues unabated - e.g.

Suvarnabhumi was built over a swamp.

 

In simplified view 

Groundwater extraction: The city has been rapidly extracting groundwater for domestic and industrial use. This depletes the aquifer, causing the land to subside.  

Rapid urbanization: The construction of high-rise buildings and other structures adds weight to the land, contributing to subsidence.  

Climate change: Rising sea levels pose a threat to low-lying cities like Bangkok, exacerbating the impact of subsidence.  

What happens further up the Chaophraya River and catchment areas also has a profound effect. Thailand is famous for untrammelled development and is paying the price all around the country, but sadly there is no sign of any sea-changes.

 

[Hanuman2547]

Let me get this straight.  This is an economics Dean at a Thai university giving advice on meteorological issues?  I guess I should consult a meteorologist for economic advice.

[Hanuman2547]

l have been hearing this same old statement being made since I first got involved with Thais and Thailand 45 years ago.  "By the year 2000 Bangkok will be flooded" was the warning cry back then.  Bangkok is still here and not flooded.