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Baht strength - How long?


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I'm certainly not the first to wonder about the exchange rate THB against other currencies, but please bear with me!

 

I see the current rates:

1 USD = 32.4 THB   which is 9% down compared to 6 months ago

1 EUR = 36.2 THB   which is 7% down compared to 6 months ago

1 GBP = 43.3 THB   which is 5% down compared to 6 months ago

 

That's quite a drop in purchasing power within a relatively short time for a lot of western residents in Thailand, and for a lot of potential western tourists! Can someone explain what is going on and give a view on how long this trend might hold in the near-mid term?

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What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

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16 minutes ago, timendres said:

What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

Thanks!

What is "the 31 handle"?

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12 minutes ago, FlorC said:

It seems THB follows the gold price since April.

Euro to Thai Baht Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

 

While in other currencies Gold is al lot up , it stays steady in THB.

Gold is going to keep going up , so will the THB.

 

The US elections may reverse both.

 

Gold is priced in USD and THB is valued against USD also hence both will follow a similar path.

 

Agreed about the elections though, forecasts are for a reversal to 36..

 

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31 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Gold is priced in USD and THB is valued against USD also hence both will follow a similar path.

 

Agreed about the elections though, forecasts are for a reversal to 36..

 

That would be 36 USD I guess, i.e. some sort of back where we were 6 months ago (or more)?

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4 hours ago, timendres said:

What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

 

It’s amazing the number of people who think they can predict exchange rates. The whole point of the Wise account is it lets one exchange between currencies whenever desired. But isn’t that just amateur currency trading? If people are really doing so well with that strategy they could be making a lot of money trading more formally on Forex markets or something. 

 

More likely, I think doing so provides a sense of gratification and that like gamblers people tend to only count their gains. Now some people will insist that really do have genuine gains this way. Great. Go trade Forex. 

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