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How much will baht rise tomorrow?

Celsius
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Isaan sailor Platinum Member

Isaan sailor

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Posted

Baht valuation makes no sense.  It doesn’t follow international trading trends—should be much lower than now.  I think foreign currency inflows have a direct bearing on Baht valuation.  Data from Bank of Thailand seems to confirm this.

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KhunLA Star Member

KhunLA

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2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

One month ago the Baht was 33.07, yesterday, 30 days later it was 33.12!

 

What's the problem!

Yea, if very slight fluctuation of the baht stress people out, strongly suggest they never invest in the markets :coffee1:

 

It's bee ฿33 / $1 USD, +/- 10%, for most of the past 24  yrs that I've been here.  Only times it moved more than 10 %, were in our / expats favor, ฿37-฿45 / $1 USD

 

image.png.1c0e3e1fbb2a9e65444382a1b7300688.png

 

If mere 10% is going to affect your smile, living overseas may not be for some people.

Edited by KhunLA
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ChaiyaTH Platinum Member

ChaiyaTH

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On 10/20/2024 at 1:30 PM, Celsius said:

I say another 1% and with US and Canada cutting rates it will be US 31, CAD 22 AUD 20 by the end of this year.

Happy you are not our financial advisor. The usd baht rate will stabilize around 33-35 over next months.

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Isaan sailor Platinum Member

Isaan sailor

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On 10/21/2024 at 4:13 PM, chiang mai said:

Folks sweating the intra-day or intra-week variations shouldn't play the currency game, play the long game with forex, not the short one, especially if you live here.

Agree with your suggestions.  It does seem, however that forex Tradingviews of USD don’t correlate with actual exchange rates of USD/Baht.  Today we see a USD at 104.37 with a Wise price of 33.71.  Yet on July 24, we saw USD at the same 104.37–and Wise showed 35.15 USD/Baht.  Have the parameters changed?  Or did foreign inflows buoy up the Baht this month?

Not complaining here—just a bit confused

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chiang mai Star Member

chiang mai

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31 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Agree with your suggestions.  It does seem, however that forex Tradingviews of USD don’t correlate with actual exchange rates of USD/Baht.  Today we see a USD at 104.37 with a Wise price of 33.71.  Yet on July 24, we saw USD at the same 104.37–and Wise showed 35.15 USD/Baht.  Have the parameters changed?  Or did foreign inflows buoy up the Baht this month?

Not complaining here—just a bit confused

You're only looking at one side of the coin, the USD side. You also have to consider what's happening on the THB side too. 104.37 reflects USD value, it doesn't say anything about THB value, which is relative to USD.

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Isaan sailor Platinum Member

Isaan sailor

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1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

You're only looking at one side of the coin, the USD side. You also have to consider what's happening on the THB side too. 104.37 reflects USD value, it doesn't say anything about THB value, which is relative to USD.

So no direct correlation of Tradingview USD prices to Wise USD/Baht.  That would make sense.  There must be other factors at play.

Thanks for responding.

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chiang mai Star Member

chiang mai

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14 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

So no direct correlation of Tradingview USD prices to Wise USD/Baht.  That would make sense.  There must be other factors at play.

Thanks for responding.

USD value is determined by a basket of six major currencies which gives us the Dollar Index. Other factors then affect that index and consequently USD value.

 

The following shows the factors that affect USD value:

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp#:~:text=Like any other fiat currency,value on the global market.

 

THB on the other hand is only very small and its value is determined largely by the current account balance. Supply and demand isn't a significant factor because THB is not freely convertible. Selling USD (as in export trade bills) against THB does increase its value and selling THB against USD (imports) weakens it. So capital inflows will sell foreign currency against THB and potentially increase THB value. 

 

It's a lot lot easier to move THB value a long way using very little than it is to move the value of USD.

 

 

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GammaGlobulin Star Member

GammaGlobulin

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I recall when the NTD (New Taiwan Dollar) suddenly went from 35:1 to 26:1, in a very short time.

Nobody could believe the rapid change.

 

Only I and Merrill Lynch predicted the rise three months in advance.

 

Now, I am predicting that the Baht will trade against the USD...at the rate of...

 

One USD to 26 Thai Baht.

 

Please, this time, mark my words.

 

 

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