Early voting - battleground states

[Danderman123]

12 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Are you Puerto Rican? Ever been there?

 

Oh, and your celebrities? Folks who pay attention to those vacuous hedonists usually vote Democratic anyway.

Trump delayed $20bn in aid to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, report finds

 

You might as well post that Puerto Ricans usually vote Democratic anyway.

[Yagoda]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Trump delayed $20bn in aid to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, report finds

 

You might as well post that Puerto Ricans usually vote Democratic anyway.

So did a lot of folks before the fiasco of the past 4 years and the danger posed by the Leftist Democratic agenda.

[Danderman123]

Just now, Yagoda said:

So did a lot of folks before the fiasco of the past 4 years and the danger posed by the Leftist Democratic agenda.

You don't consider Trump's mismanagement of COVID to be a fiasco? He lost his job after that.

[theblether]

Doesn't matter now. Biden just knocked the PR storm in a teacup out the park. 

 

Democrats are enraged. 

[theblether]

11 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Clark County mailed out ballots late this year. There are still 1.6 million ballots yet to be received by the county.

 

The people who sent you the talking points didn't tell you the whole story.

 

You are talking utter drivel. There is not anything like 1.6 million registered voters in Clark County due to return. 

 

Fake news, utter drivel. 

[Jingthing]

8 hours ago, theblether said:

Doesn't matter now. Biden just knocked the PR storm in a teacup out the park. 

 

Democrats are enraged. 

So you delude. 

[Jingthing]

There is no way that 95 percent of republican voters will be for Trump.

[theblether]

Not including independents - the current state of play according to NBC early voting figures 

 

Arizona - R 42% D 34%

Nevada - R 39% D 35%

Georgia - R 48% D 45%

N Carolina - R 34% D33% 

 

Wisconsin - D 35% R 24%

Michigan - D 47% R 42% 

Penn State - D 58% R 32%

 

Electoral college change from 2020? Arizona and Nevada are gone for the Democrats. Totally gone. 

 

Georgia is looking like a Trump gain as well. 

 

North Carolina is likely Trump. 

 

The other three states are seeing their totals tighten. Trump is progressing. The bizarre thing is the state with the widest margin is the one that's underperforming worst for the Dems. Penn State early voting electoral day advantage for the Dems in 2020 was 1.1 million. 

 

Current advantage 403,000 for Dems. Trump won election day by 1 million votes last time. I estimated the Dems needed 900,000 advantage this time, at least 700,000. Doesn't look like they are going to get either. 

[theblether]

Jon Ralston, Dem analyst in Nevada, reckons the GOP are 44,000 votes ahead with around 65% turnout. Early voting in Nevada ends tomorrow and the big problem for the Dems is the lower than expected turnout in Dem dominated Clark County. 

 

Vote total was 1.35 million in 2020, both 2012 and 2016 were around 1 million. Current votes total is 852,000. 

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, theblether said:

Not including independents - the current state of play according to NBC early voting figures 

 

Arizona - R 42% D 34%

Nevada - R 39% D 35%

Georgia - R 48% D 45%

N Carolina - R 34% D33% 

 

Wisconsin - D 35% R 24%

Michigan - D 47% R 42% 

Penn State - D 58% R 32%

 

Electoral college change from 2020? Arizona and Nevada are gone for the Democrats. Totally gone. 

 

Georgia is looking like a Trump gain as well. 

 

North Carolina is likely Trump. 

 

The other three states are seeing their totals tighten. Trump is progressing. The bizarre thing is the state with the widest margin is the one that's underperforming worst for the Dems. Penn State early voting electoral day advantage for the Dems in 2020 was 1.1 million. 

 

Current advantage 403,000 for Dems. Trump won election day by 1 million votes last time. I estimated the Dems needed 900,000 advantage this time, at least 700,000. Doesn't look like they are going to get either. 

You can't use 2020 Election Day turnout as a comparison because lots of Dems didn't do in person voting in 2020 because of COVID.

[Danderman123]

24 minutes ago, theblether said:

Jon Ralston, Dem analyst in Nevada, reckons the GOP are 44,000 votes ahead with around 65% turnout. Early voting in Nevada ends tomorrow and the big problem for the Dems is the lower than expected turnout in Dem dominated Clark County. 

 

Vote total was 1.35 million in 2020, both 2012 and 2016 were around 1 million. Current votes total is 852,000. 

Nevada doesn't look good right now. One reason is that Clark County sent out mail ballots late, and there are still 1.4 million yet to be returned and counted.

[theblether]

28 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Nevada doesn't look good right now. One reason is that Clark County sent out mail ballots late, and there are still 1.4 million yet to be returned and counted.

 

No, there isn't. I don't know where you are getting that information. 

 

Ralston is predicting between 1.3 and 1.4 million TOTAL votes. Go read the figures for the last three elections, there's no way there's 1.4 million ballots expected to arrive, impossible and no chance. 

[theblether]

34 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You can't use 2020 Election Day turnout as a comparison because lots of Dems didn't do in person voting in 2020 because of COVID.

 

Uhuhu - maybe that's why I reduced my estimate to 700,000? 

 

As I mentioned the other day, that would give the DNC sleepless nights, if they go in with a 900,000 lead I reckon they'll win Penn State. 

[frank83628]

On 10/30/2024 at 8:32 AM, Danderman123 said:

Trump's mismanagement of the Hurricane Maria tragedy is the basis of the Puerto Rican distaste of Trump.

$750 to the latest US Hurricane victims but billions to Ukraine it the basis of the distaste of Harris/Biden.

 

[Danderman123]

15 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

$750 to the latest US Hurricane victims but billions to Ukraine it the basis of the distaste of Harris/Biden.

 

Did you have to translate that talking point from the original Russian?

[Danderman123]

25 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Uhuhu - maybe that's why I reduced my estimate to 700,000? 

 

As I mentioned the other day, that would give the DNC sleepless nights, if they go in with a 900,000 lead I reckon they'll win Penn State. 

Nobody knows who is going to vote on Election Day.

 

It's very possible that Harris will open Election Day with a 500,000 vote firewall and that will be enough to beat Trump.

[theblether]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Nobody knows who is going to vote on Election Day.

 

It's very possible that Harris will open Election Day with a 500,000 vote firewall and that will be enough to beat Trump.

 

Yup - we'll see. I'm pretty sure the DNC are over the moon at having their early voting lead halved by election day. I bet they planned on it. 

 

Anyway, can you link to where there are 1.4 million more early votes expected.

[mogandave]

On 10/30/2024 at 6:25 PM, Jingthing said:

There is no way that 95 percent of republican voters will be for Trump.

Nation wide? That’s a bet I’d take for a months’s pay.

[HonestQuietTom]

On 10/29/2024 at 7:12 PM, theblether said:

Another point of note - the Dems had an early voting lead of 1.1 million over the GOP back in 2020. They lost the election day turnout by a vast margin. 

 

IMO, they need to be ahead 900,000 this time to be confident of victory. Absolute minimum of 700,000 and that will give the DNC sleepless nights. Current lead is around 400,000. 

Your opinion is in all likelihood wrong.

The 2020 election was during covid.

Democrat voters, being the far more responsible cohort, voted early en masse as it was the responsible thing to do during a pandemic.

In 2024 there is no covid - your assumptions hold no weight.

[HonestQuietTom]

On 10/29/2024 at 8:24 PM, theblether said:

 

Polling averages don't matter now. The votes are flooding in at numbers no pollster could attempt to sample. 

 

A Dem analyst in Nevada reckons there's a high turnout of low preponderance voters in red areas. He says at the current rate he'll be able to call Nevada for Trump before election day. 

 

That's due to his estimated total turnout. I don't care what anyone says - no one anticipated Biden being hammered in Nevada. The substitution of Harris has not helped. 

 

 

Who is the Dem analyst?

No reason not to name them and post a link, unless of course, they're a figment of your imagination.

[HonestQuietTom]

On 10/29/2024 at 8:48 PM, Talon said:

 

Democrat counties will not follow the law, and the Democrat DOJ will not prosecute. Watch how fast nothing happens.

Utter nonsense.

[theblether]

4 minutes ago, HonestQuietTom said:

Who is the Dem analyst?

No reason not to name them and post a link, unless of course, they're a figment of your imagination.

 

Read the thread before answering and proving you're a fool. The analyst is Jon Ralston. And here's the link, you utter clown. 

 

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

 

[HonestQuietTom]

On 10/29/2024 at 9:17 PM, Hanaguma said:

Why do you assume that PR-Americans have no sense of humour? Or that they are so shallow that an off-colour joke would prompt them to vote against their own family interests? Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations!

The racist "joke" is the cherry on top / the straw that broke the camels back - the latest in a long long stream of bigoted nonsense from a bigoted movement.

 

When the topic is MAGA, the bigotry is never soft (or hidden).

[frank83628]

45 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Did you have to translate that talking point from the original Russian?

No, you can just look at news from 2 weeks ago, us hurricane victims got little help financially compared to the millions zelensky and his country 8000+ miles  away got

[mogandave]

6 minutes ago, HonestQuietTom said:

The racist "joke" is the cherry on top / the straw that broke the camels back - the latest in a long long stream of bigoted nonsense from a bigoted movement.

 

When the topic is MAGA, the bigotry is never soft (or hidden).

Is that why Biden called Trump supporters garbage?

[mogandave]

PA Senator Fetterman sees PA going to Trump

[HonestQuietTom]

4 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

No, you can just look at news from 2 weeks ago, us hurricane victims got little help financially compared to the millions zelensky and his country 8000+ miles  away got

How are you so uninformed?

The only explanation is that it is a voluntary affliction.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd1q9q9gl9o

[Will B Good]

11 minutes ago, mogandave said:

Is that why Biden called Trump supporters garbage?

 

 

Good heavens no.......there are so many, many other reasons.

[frank83628]

4 minutes ago, HonestQuietTom said:

How are you so uninformed?

The only explanation is that it is a voluntary affliction.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd1q9q9gl9o

Who cares about the FEMA budget from 2019, how about sorting out the hurricane victims in the US, before sending money overseas. Did you read that article before posting?

[HonestQuietTom]

11 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

Who cares about the FEMA budget from 2019, how about sorting out the hurricane victims in the US, before sending money overseas. Did you read that article before posting?

Yes I did read it.

It appears you may have read it, but utterly failed to comprehend it.

 

The reason the 2019 FEMA budget is mentioned is because that was the year Trump took FEMA funds and used them to fund ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement)

 

Go and reread the paragraph on the $750 - take a minute to educate yourself.

 

Or better yet, click on the link to the FEMA Fact Checking page - a page that had to be set up to limit the damage by the disinformation being spread by uninformed morons.

 

https://www.fema.gov/disaster/current/hurricane-helene/rumor-response