Will Fear of Mutually Assured Destruction Keep Us Safe in a New Nuclear Era?

[Social Media]

 

As the specter of nuclear conflict looms larger than it has in decades, global leaders face a world where mutually assured destruction (MAD) might once again be the sole deterrent against catastrophic warfare. The escalating threats of nuclear weapons usage, paired with the dismantling of arms control agreements, are creating a precarious new global order where the fear of annihilation remains humanity’s last line of defense.  

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has added a chilling layer to the Russia-Ukraine conflict by openly suggesting the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. This marks a stark shift from the post-Cold War era when nuclear threats seemed to have receded into history. Putin’s rhetoric has angered the West, but his actions are part of a broader global trend of nuclear rearmament and brinkmanship. As international détente crumbles, countries are racing to modernize arsenals, explore nuclear programs, and exploit the fear such weapons inspire.  

 

The nuclear ambitions of nations like Iran and North Korea further complicate this landscape. Iran has moved closer to building a bomb, particularly after former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reinstated sanctions. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to test advanced ballistic missiles, such as the Hwasong-19, cementing its reputation as a nation willing to integrate preemptive nuclear strikes into its military doctrine. With an estimated 30-50 warheads, the country’s focus now lies on ensuring it has reliable means of delivery, making its threats increasingly credible.  

 

The MAD doctrine, a product of Cold War calculations, once ensured that nuclear war was unthinkable due to its catastrophic consequences. As J. Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, eloquently described in 1960, “We may be likened to two scorpions in a bottle, each capable of killing the other, but only at the risk of his own life.” This doctrine held that no conceivable strategic gain could justify the destruction of cities, millions of deaths, or the end of civilization.  

 

However, Putin’s nuclear doctrine challenges MAD’s foundational assumptions. By threatening to use smaller tactical nuclear weapons—far less destructive than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki—he introduces a form of warfare that the original MAD framework did not account for. These weapons, capable of being fired from artillery or short-range missiles, could deliver decisive battlefield advantages while avoiding the full-scale retaliation that MAD traditionally guaranteed.  

 

Ukraine’s unique vulnerability exacerbates this danger. Having relinquished the Soviet nuclear arsenal on its territory in exchange for security assurances that Russia has since violated, Ukraine is defenseless against such threats. Should Russia deploy tactical nuclear weapons, it could secure victory without risking retaliation from Western nuclear powers, such as the United States, Britain, or France, which have been hesitant to intervene directly in the conflict.  

 

The unraveling of arms control agreements compounds the crisis. With no active efforts to renew the START treaty, enforce the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or revive the Iran nuclear deal, the international community is left without the frameworks that once curbed nuclear proliferation. Simultaneously, China’s rapidly expanding arsenal and the collapsing security order in the Middle East add layers of instability.

 

In this fractured landscape, MAD remains the last, fragile bulwark against catastrophe. Yet, as the rules and doctrines of the past are redefined, the question remains: can the fear of mutual destruction still serve as a deterrent in a world increasingly willing to gamble on the unthinkable?

 

Based on a report by The Times 2024-11-26

 

 

 

[JimHuaHin]

Short answer "no"; not with the "wacko" psychopaths (about to be) in power.

[dinsdale]

This whole fear mongering of nukes being thrown around is the same as it was in the early stages of cold war 1.0. Now it seems we're in cold war 2.0 it will be the same. Nukes will not be used. Don't be surprised though if Putin does a nuclear test somewhere in Russia in the very near future. Come January 20 this all stops.

[renaissanc]

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

This whole fear mongering of nukes being thrown around is the same as it was in the early stages of cold war 1.0. Now it seems we're in cold war 2.0 it will be the same. Nukes will not be used. Don't be surprised though if Putin does a nuclear test somewhere in Russia in the very near future. Come January 20 this all stops.

I think so too. Putin loves to rattle his sabre.

[JonnyF]

Things will settle down quickly once Biden's warmongering ways are removed from the white house.

 

Let's hope he doesn't throw any more fuel on the fire before he leaves. 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

Face it, Putin will never be allowed to leave Russia as he will be arrested for war crimes. So he is either going to be 'killed' off by a moderate russian, or killed off by KGB style mafia or die and the war never ending. 

 

Every day the reparations bill gets bigger, Russia will have to pay so much as to be totally broke for generations

[transam]

8 hours ago, dinsdale said:

This whole fear mongering of nukes being thrown around is the same as it was in the early stages of cold war 1.0. Now it seems we're in cold war 2.0 it will be the same. Nukes will not be used. Don't be surprised though if Putin does a nuclear test somewhere in Russia in the very near future. Come January 20 this all stops.

In 24 hours....................🤣

[Denim]

I could be very wrong but I just can't see either side dropping a nuke on Petchabun. I have poured over google maps looking for something of strategic value but so far nothing. 

 

So . Are we safe in Petchabun ? I think so. Safer here than back in Europe . 

 

So really .....what it boils down to is how much of a nut case is Putin ?  Admit defeat and push the button. I don't think so. He is winning it on the front lines , albeit at terrible human and economic cost so it seems probable that he will just keep grinding away at it whilst acting like a rattle snake making loud noises to sow doubt in his enemies while he nibbles away at Ukrainian territory. Trump can pontificate but both sides might choose to put him on ignore.

[dinsdale]

8 hours ago, b17 said:

Putler is an insane war criminal, but he is also a coward. He is quite aware that any use of nuclear weapons, be it strategic or tactical, will bring an immediate NATO response that will destroy him and his armies almost instantly, WITHOUT the need for NATO to even use their own nuclear arsenal. People need to NEVER appease him as he only responds to overwhelming opposition, the likes of which are on every border surrounding Russia. He cares too much about himself to sacrifice his hold on power for his demented vision of a so called "reunited Soviet Union". 

Trump also employs fear tactics to bluff his way along. For example, he is anticipating that millions of illegal immigrants will flee the US on their own accord due to concerns about a government "round up". However, if you run the numbers on what it would take to remove 10 million people from the US, it immediately becomes obvious that he'll NEVER be able to carry out this stupid idea...just as he NEVER built the wall that Mexico was going to pay for. 

 

Almost is the key word. Almost instantly is not fast enough to stop a counter strike. This is the basis of MAD and why it's a deterrence not a strategy for attack. You're segue into Trump and the boarder is simply ridiculous and completely off topic.

[freedomnow]

Edge of my seat..nuclear oblivion is near....ooooh noooo !

 

 

[thesetat2013]

3 minutes ago, freedomnow said:

Edge of my seat..nuclear oblivion is near....ooooh noooo !

 

 

The world has been gearing up for WW3 for the past few years. It is imminent... China, Russia and USA plus all the smaller nations pushing almost monthly to see if missiles will fly... It is bound to happen. Let's just hope Thailand stays neutral and WW3 is not nuclear

[metisdead]

Off topic deflection posts and replies have been removed as this topic is not about the rate of inflation.

[lordgrinz]

Should we have all the children hide under their school desks again, and start a new underground bunker building enterprise?

[chickenslegs]

The Doomsday Clock is at 90 seconds to midnight. its lowest point ever.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1072256/doomsday-clock-development/

[frank83628]

8 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Face it, Putin will never be allowed to leave Russia as he will be arrested for war crimes. So he is either going to be 'killed' off by a moderate russian, or killed off by KGB style mafia or die and the war never ending. 

 

Every day the reparations bill gets bigger, Russia will have to pay so much as to be totally broke for generations

Putin has far more support in Russia than your media would have you believe. He won't get arrested either, total bs. Has the US, UK, France paid reparations to Libya, Syria, etc yet? I wouldnt hold your breath for Russia paying

[freedomnow]

12 hours ago, thesetat2013 said:

The world has been gearing up for WW3 for the past few years. It is imminent... China, Russia and USA plus all the smaller nations pushing almost monthly to see if missiles will fly... It is bound to happen. Let's just hope Thailand stays neutral and WW3 is not nuclear

Nonsense.

[b17]

14 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Almost is the key word. Almost instantly is not fast enough to stop a counter strike. This is the basis of MAD and why it's a deterrence not a strategy for attack. You're segue into Trump and the boarder is simply ridiculous and completely off topic.

  OK, whatever you say mate. Blame it on the "boarder"... whomever he or she is. 555!  I mentioned Trump as both he and Putin use "fear" as a tactic, but perhaps you, or this "boarder" of yours,  missed the connection. 

 

Edited 13 hours ago by b17

[dinsdale]

12 minutes ago, b17 said:

  OK, whatever you say mate. Blame it on the "boarder"... whomever he or she is. 555!  I mentioned Trump as both he and Putin use "fear" as a tactic, but perhaps you, or this "boarder" of yours,  missed the connection. 

 

The border's not a fear tactic from Trump. It's a reality on the ground. Putin? Sure he's sabre rattling but that's what he does. There will not be a nuclear war. MAD for all it's madness has worked and will continue to work.

[JimHuaHin]

All it takes is one psychopath fool to give the launch order - no urgent phone call to the target state stating "I just made a terrible error".

 

The technologically "advanced" states all have early warning systems than detect launches a few minutes after the event; within 10 minutes most systems can detect the nature of the warhead and its then current destination.

 

Check out "Dead Hand System" aka Perimeter, in English.

[3NUMBAS]

Putins army and supplies is so depleted he can’t do anything but bluff again and again,his weapons are old and may not work now

[freedomnow]

7 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

Check out "Dead Hand System" aka Perimeter, in English.

Fear porn ?

[mrfill]

9 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

All it takes is one psychopath fool to give the launch order - no urgent phone call to the target state stating "I just made a terrible error".

 

The technologically "advanced" states all have early warning systems than detect launches a few minutes after the event; within 10 minutes most systems can detect the nature of the warhead and its then current destination.

 

Check out "Dead Hand System" aka Perimeter, in English.

 

 

and then check out Dr Strangelove......

[transam]

19 hours ago, frank83628 said:

Putin has far more support in Russia than your media would have you believe. He won't get arrested either, total bs. Has the US, UK, France paid reparations to Libya, Syria, etc yet? I wouldnt hold your breath for Russia paying

I thought the West had a lot of Russian money stashed away, besides, Putin has cost his citizens dear, the gains made after the Cold War, the exit of Communism is now in the Russian bin, the people know it, but it seems you, a Western Putin supporter sitting in a safe place, doesn't......

 

[frank83628]

1 minute ago, transam said:

I thought the West had a lot of Russian money stashed away, besides, Putin has cost his citizens dear, the gains made after the Cold War, the exit of Communism is now in the Russian bin, the people know it, but it seems you, a Western Putin supporter sitting in a safe place, doesn't......

 

They might have frozen assest like the US did, however that has only gone to show how untrustworthy they are and stengthen ties with other countries and also BRICS banking system. The 'west' is only 13% of the world, you might not know that living in your western establishment bubble. China, India, China much stronger ties now.  

[transam]

Just now, frank83628 said:

They might have frozen assest like the US did, however that has only gone to show how untrustworthy they are and stengthen ties with other countries and also BRICS banking system. The 'west' is only 13% of the world, you might not know that living in your western establishment bubble. China, India, China much stronger ties now.  

🤣............Doing well, aren't they...........🤣

And you, sitting in your safe bubble, pretending not to be a Commie.........😂.......

[AlexRich]

The nuclear genie has been out the bottle since the 1940's, and only the US has ever used them. So the theory of mutually assured destruction has worked fairly well in preventing a nuclear event, although there has been a few near misses over the years. I think we have been lucky so far. 

 

Putin doesn't intend to use a nuclear weapon but his rhetoric is particularly dangerous as words and actions could easily be misinterpreted. The advent of Artificial Intelligence will most likely tip us all over the edge. You won't be immediately affected in Thailand but the chaos and environmental damage caused will make life unbearable. And when that happens the usual norms of society goes out the window. A foreigner in the land of smiles will be fair game for some harsh treatment, because it will be people who look like you that have caused the problem. Something to look forward to in your old age?

 

 

 

 

[frank83628]

Just now, transam said:

🤣............Doing well, aren't they...........🤣

And you, sitting in your safe bubble, pretending not to be a Commie.........😂.......

If you watch something other than the bbc you might find out. 

And I mean BBC television, not your usual 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 11/26/2024 at 7:07 PM, renaissanc said:

I think so too. Putin loves to rattle his sabre.

Substitute Biden for Putin and I'll agree with you.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

The nuclear genie has been out the bottle since the 1940's, and only the US has ever used them. So the theory of mutually assured destruction has worked fairly well in preventing a nuclear event, although there has been a few near misses over the years. I think we have been lucky so far. 

Lucky being the operative word. Given the propensity of the human race to shoot itself in the foot, and given the desire of certain madmen to acquire nukes, IMO it's just a matter of time before it all turns to the brown stuff.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

If you watch something other than the bbc you might find out. 

And I mean BBC television, not your usual 

I gave that a laugh emoji for "not your usual". So fitting.