The Looming Economic Storm in Europe

[Social Media]

 

Europe stands on the brink of an economic apocalypse, with its longstanding prosperity under siege from stagnation, dwindling competitiveness, and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. As Mario Draghi starkly warned in a recent report, this is “an existential challenge” for the continent.  

 

Historically, Europe thrived on innovation and a robust economic model underpinned by its eastern expansion and strong trade relationships with the U.S. and Asia. Yet, the once-firm foundations of this prosperity now show alarming cracks. With China’s economic boom losing steam and U.S.-Europe trade relations clouded by rising tensions, Europe’s economic trajectory appears increasingly precarious.  

 

The challenges could escalate dramatically under a second Trump presidency. His administration has already hinted at imposing punitive tariffs on European goods, from Bordeaux wine to luxury Italian suits. Trump’s persistent demand for NATO allies to contribute more financially to their own defense adds another strain. European governments, already grappling with soaring deficits and declining tax revenues, face the prospect of deeper financial and political turmoil.  

 

Europe’s woes, however, go beyond external pressures. At its core, the continent faces a troubling truth: it has become an “innovation desert.” Despite a storied history of transformative inventions—from the automobile to modern pharmaceuticals—Europe has ceded ground in global innovation. Christine Lagarde, speaking at Paris’s historic Collège des Bernardins, cautioned that Europe’s cherished social model is at risk unless the region swiftly adapts. “Otherwise, we will not be able to generate the wealth we will need to meet our rising spending needs to ensure our security, combat climate change and protect the environment,” she said.  

 

The statistics paint a grim picture. Europe’s global tech presence is paltry, with only four of the world’s top 50 tech firms hailing from the continent. In the automotive sector, despite accounting for over 40% of global R&D spending, European carmakers missed the electric vehicle revolution.

 

Germany’s auto giants, for instance, focused on optimizing diesel engines while companies like Tesla and Chinese manufacturers dominated the electric vehicle market. This failure has led to significant repercussions, including Volkswagen’s decision to shutter some German plants for the first time in its history.  

 

Compounding the issue is Europe’s chronic underinvestment in emerging technologies. IMF data reveals that U.S. tech companies spend over twice as much on R&D as their European counterparts, resulting in a 40% productivity surge in the U.S. tech sector since 2005, compared to stagnation in Europe. Lagarde succinctly captured the problem: “Europe is falling behind in emerging technologies that will drive future growth.”  

 

This economic malaise extends beyond tech and cars. European industries face mounting competition from China in areas like machinery and trains, sectors where the region once held dominance. Meanwhile, social spending in many EU nations is unsustainable under current economic conditions. France, for example, spends over 30% of GDP on social programs but is grappling with a budget deficit expected to surpass 7% by 2025.  

 

As borrowing costs rise and economic growth stagnates, the stark reality is that Europe may face difficult decisions reminiscent of Greece’s austerity measures in 2010. Clemens Fuest of the Ifo Institute reflected on Europe’s lack of preparation for these challenges: “The failure of Europe’s leaders to draw lessons from the last Trump presidency is now coming back to haunt us.”  

 

If Europe’s leaders fail to act decisively, the continent risks becoming a “debt-ridden, open-air museum,” as Draghi described. The trouble is, by the time Europeans wake up to their new reality, it may be too late to do much about it.

 

Based on a report by Politico 2024-01-06

 

 

[milesinnz]

I put a question to chatGPT "what is the probability of a Great Depression 2". Initially it replied 50%. But chatGPT is programmed not to offend and upset people so - I cannot remember the exact words, I challenged it with facts, then it changed it's view to 90 to 95%.. and apologizing and gave some sort of explanation as to why it does not look at facts critically which I had forced it to do... chatGPT does carry with it a lot of social dangers if you just take what it says uncritically.. but the one thing it cannot do, is to run away - so you can bring it to account and get some sort of "real" answer. I listed the many similarities to the 1929 Great Depression. Some are quite striking like the introduction of AI. The introduction of the tractor in the 1920's led to a huge loss of jobs as horses were no longer needed - not unlike the manufacturing changes we are seeing now. Nothing needs to be said about the dangers in the financial markets particularly with the very very high levels of private debt... so an economic storm in Europe would be par for the course - and it will not only be Europe. Of course many less than first world countries are already in economic hurricanes.. South Africa, Pakistan, most of South America and and other parts of Africa...

[bkk6060]

Lousy policy, liberal ideals, over priced cars, minimal tech, no forward thinking, etc.

Try to blame it on Trump? what a joke.

[Cryingdick]

1 hour ago, milesinnz said:

I put a question to chatGPT "what is the probability of a Great Depression 2". Initially it replied 50%. But chatGPT is programmed not to offend and upset people so - I cannot remember the exact words, I challenged it with facts, then it changed it's view to 90 to 95%.. and apologizing and gave some sort of explanation as to why it does not look at facts critically which I had forced it to do... chatGPT does carry with it a lot of social dangers if you just take what it says uncritically.. but the one thing it cannot do, is to run away - so you can bring it to account and get some sort of "real" answer. I listed the many similarities to the 1929 Great Depression. Some are quite striking like the introduction of AI. The introduction of the tractor in the 1920's led to a huge loss of jobs as horses were no longer needed - not unlike the manufacturing changes we are seeing now. Nothing needs to be said about the dangers in the financial markets particularly with the very very high levels of private debt... so an economic storm in Europe would be par for the course - and it will not only be Europe. Of course many less than first world countries are already in economic hurricanes.. South Africa, Pakistan, most of South America and and other parts of Africa...

ChatGPT is trained to copy , resemble or empathize with you, it becomes more sympathetic over time. I have used it extensively and it will say whatever you want. I told it to treat my dog as the POTUS and develop codenames and protocols. It does just that. Asking Ai facts is productive, training it to reflect you own opinions is of limited value Dave, goodbye.

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

France, for example, spends over 30% of GDP on social programs

Hmm, socialism at its best - cannot have socialism and capitalism in the same country, they are not compatible 

[jippytum]

2 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Lousy policy, liberal ideals, over priced cars, minimal tech, no forward thinking, etc.

Try to blame it on Trump? what a joke.

plus illegal immigrants are expensive and a strain on the budget

[The Cyclist]

Go woke - Go broke

 

Really nothing more to say.

[mfd101]

Success breeds complacency and the (temporary) end of success. Germany & Oz are current examples.

 

But nothing is forever. Failure breeds political & social change. That's the great advantage of democracies over authoritarian regimes: the ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

 

As for the French, they have a death wish.

[JonnyF]

Protectionism, corruption, technocracy, over regulation and mass uncontrolled immigration was never going to end well for the EU.

 

Hopefully the EU collapses and the great nation states of Europe can become great again when free of the failing federalist project.

 

 

[soalbundy]

It isn't just Europe that faces headwinds, I saw an interesting program on YouTube explaining the FED's economic Ponzi scheme of money printing causing ever more debt for minimal returns, it will cause the inevitable collapse of the FIAT monetary system worldwide starting with the demise of the dollar as a reserve currency. All currencies use the dollar as a benchmark for their own value but there is nothing backing up the dollar except for trust and this is fading rapidly. All it needs is a calamity, perhaps insignificant at first, that will cause the leaking dam to burst open fully. We live in interesting times.

[Thingamabob]

A combination of short-termism and wokeism has, unsurprisingly, resulted in a disaster.

[Peterphuket]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

Protectionism, corruption, technocracy, over regulation and mass uncontrolled immigration was never going to end well for the EU.

 

Hopefully the EU collapses and the great nation states of Europe can become great again when free of the failing federalist project.

 

 

Indeed, that whole mess in power over there in the EU is just lining their pockets.

[roquefort]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

It isn't just Europe that faces headwinds, I saw an interesting program on YouTube explaining the FED's economic Ponzi scheme of money printing causing ever more debt for minimal returns, it will cause the inevitable collapse of the FIAT monetary system worldwide starting with the demise of the dollar as a reserve currency. All currencies use the dollar as a benchmark for their own value but there is nothing backing up the dollar except for trust and this is fading rapidly. All it needs is a calamity, perhaps insignificant at first, that will cause the leaking dam to burst open fully. We live in interesting times.

The annual interest on the US national debt is already higher than its military budget. By 2050 it will consume more than the entire US federal budget. It's a doom loop. 

[Peterphuket]

Giant energy prices and a multitude of regulations make it increasingly difficult for an entrepreneur to survive.

[Yagoda]

Wait till they have to pay for their own defense. Bet us Yanks will be feeling the tongues in the butt after that.

[Nid_Noi]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

Protectionism, corruption, technocracy, over regulation and mass uncontrolled immigration was never going to end well for the EU.

 

Hopefully the EU collapses and the great nation states of Europe can become great again when free of the failing federalist project.

 

 

You said it all. The Treaty of Maastricht has been the death sentence of Europe. Add the European Commission with Frau Fuhrerin Ursula von der Leyen and you have set the stage for the total collapse of Europe.

Quite frankly Christine Lagarde is the wrong person to pull the alarm. She is WEF all the way to the bone and was ardently promoting the European Union.

She failed as French minister of Finances and Macron got rid of her like Merkel got rid of von der Leyen. Bruxelles is the dumpster for all failed politicians. 
Mario Draghi is also part of this European aristocracy so he is not the right person to give any advice.

The European Commission has shown to the world how corruption is part of its management policy with the Qatar Football World Cup, Mc Kinsey operatives infiltration to the highest levels of the EU and the Covid-19 scamdemic. Then Ukraine is the cherry on the cake with its international money laundering operations. Show me one member of the EU commission who did not make the trip to visit Zelensky.

[mokwit]

58 minutes ago, Peterphuket said:

Giant energy prices and a multitude of regulations make it increasingly difficult for an entrepreneur to survive.

Giant energy prices make it difficult for long established large companies to survive. Production will move to countries where there isn't a fantasy that you can power an industrial economy with windmills.

 

As for von Der Leyen, her contemptuous laughter when a Polish and another Euro MP voiced concerns felt by large swathes of the EU population (the ones that don't live in leafy suburbs) shows her true colours.

[Peterphuket]

10 minutes ago, mokwit said:

Giant energy prices make it difficult for long established large companies to survive. Production will move to countries where there isn't a fantasy that you can power an industrial economy with windmills.

 

As for von Der Leyen, her contemptuous laughter when a Polish and another Euro MP voiced concerns felt by large swathes of the EU population (the ones that don't live in leafy suburbs) shows her true colours.

As far as I know, she has already made huge bludgers as a former minister in Germany, and then president of the EU.
Incidentally, the same goes for the new NATO president, Rutte is his name, the Dutch people were fed up with his lies and deceit after 12 years of rule.

[milesinnz]

5 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Hmm, socialism at its best - cannot have socialism and capitalism in the same country, they are not compatible 

there is a difference between socialism and social policies (support for the poor).. Immigration is what has destroyed Europe and I cannot see it helping the US... those on the left have supported immigration for all sorts of bizarre reasons and their justifications are factually incorrect. But going back to Thatcher/Reagan, immigration worked well for them as it broke the unions - excess supply of low skilled workers who are desperate to work - exactly what exists now. So those of the left and the right were happy and still are happy with immigration no matter what the longer term social costs are. Germany is now paying the price for this policy. We also have some sort of social idea that we must not upset anyone - I have caught chatGPT out on this where in one sentence it, quoted mutually exclusive terms and when I pointed it out.. it throws out a meaningless apology, then repeats the same nonsense again - very dangerous - just goes to how dishonest the bias is, which is programmed into it. But at a live person level, those of the left and the right play the same game to appease their voting base, then do what they (the leaders) own agenda dictates.. 

[roquefort]

1 hour ago, Peterphuket said:

As far as I know, she has already made huge bludgers as a former minister in Germany, and then president of the EU.
Incidentally, the same goes for the new NATO president, Rutte is his name, the Dutch people were fed up with his lies and deceit after 12 years of rule.

EU Commission, NATO, IMF are revolving door dumping grounds for failed national politicians. Can't hack it as a minister? Go and run an unelected supranational quango.

[phetphet]

One only has to look at the state of Germany nowadays. Another once powerful industrial country on a steep decline. Madame Merkel has a lot to answer for.

[mokwit]

9 minutes ago, phetphet said:

One only has to look at the state of Germany nowadays. Another once powerful industrial country on a steep decline. Madame Merkel has a lot to answer for.

She will go down in history as that bitch who ruined Germany. Currently it is the older generation who sees this, but as things get worse it will be the young indoctrinated/idealistic Germans who wake up to reality. Apparently in some areas it is becoming increasingly unwise for young women to go out alone, we see the huge Islamic processions etc.

 

Sounds like a young guy. Is it my imagination or does she give him the finger?

 

 

[mokwit]

34 minutes ago, roquefort said:

EU Commission, NATO, IMF are revolving door dumping grounds for failed national politicians. Can't hack it as a minister? Go and run an unelected supranational quango.

The Kinnocks did very well out of the EU.

[JonnyF]

I thought all these immigrants (extremely well disguised doctors, nurses, and engineers of course) were not only going to make us culturally enriched but save our economies?

 

Surely we weren't lied to??? 😆 

[Peterphuket]

13 minutes ago, mokwit said:

She will go down in history as that bitch who ruined Germany. Currently it is the older generation who sees this, but as things get worse it will be the young indoctrinated/idealistic Germans who wake up to reality. Apparently in some areas it is becoming increasingly unwise for young women to go out alone, we see the huge Islamic processions etc.

 

Sounds like a young guy. Is it my imagination or does she give him the finger?

 

 

I have here for you 2 very interesting video regarding the gang in the EU parliament, recorded by a Dutch journalist,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK8ue7-Shpc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPbNF1q_6tg

 

[AndreasHG]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Hopefully the EU collapses and the great nation states of Europe can become great again when free of the failing federalist project.

 

 

I doubt the EU will ever collapse. What has happened and is still happening in the UK, starting from immigration, is so appalling that it has dissuaded the rest of Europe from following suit.

Continental Europeans must be grateful to the United Kingdom for having voluntarily acted as a guinea pig.

 

With regards to Europe, the last three years have been exceptionally difficult because the continent is consumed by a criminal and costly war, started by Putin, and that Putin cannot be allowed to win.

 

For next year the IMF foresees an improvement for the EU as a whole, especially for Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Poland, Greece, Romania, Sweden, Finland, Checz Republic, Hungary, which are expected to post a GDP growth in line or higher than the USA (see link below).

 

And this is the thing that EU haters tend to forget. The EU is a bloc with some common regulations, but also a large degree of discretion granted to national governments with regard to the vast majority of rules that regulate the economic activity in the individual states and more. The result is that there are EU countries that outperform compared to international standards, and countries that end up crushed by the competition.

 

Textbook examples are Ireland and the United Kingdom: they joined the EU almost at the same time (1972 and 1973).

1. The Irish per capita GDP in 1972 was US$2,080, while the UK per capita GDP was 50% higher, or US$3.030 in the same year.
    
2. In 2016, year of the Brexit referendum, the Irish per capita GDP was US$62,784, or 50% higher than the UK one, equal to US$40,985. The UK has not been able to benefit from the EU membership as Ireland and many other countries did.
    

And when considering this specific and humiliating aspect (the UK was once the colonial power asserting its domain over poor Ireland), Brexit was probably the only sensible choice left to the UK

 

Below the links to the data in my post:

 

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/EU/EURO/EUQ/NMQ

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/IRL/ireland/gdp-per-capita

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita

 

[mfd101]

3 hours ago, roquefort said:

The annual interest on the US national debt is already higher than its military budget. By 2050 it will consume more than the entire US federal budget. It's a doom loop. 

But most of the US debt is owed to itself! so not too much to worry about.

 

The huge advantage of running the international monetary system.

[mokwit]

25 minutes ago, AndreasHG said:

What has happened and is still happening in the UK, starting from immigration, is so appalling

You are confusing a Government that had the power to control non EU immigration but failed to, with a situation where Merkel could invite the whole world to the EU and once they had EU passports they could all head for the UK without our being able to control it.

[AndreasHG]

21 minutes ago, mokwit said:

once they had EU passports they could all head for the UK

 

Oh dear: do you have any idea of what it takes to get the German passport to asylum seekers settled in Germany?

 

Britons insularity is surprising. It seems that you spend the whole time closely watching your own d**k, and lose sight of the rest of the world, except the USA of course, I guess because they are just too big to ignore.

 

Asylum seekers can become naturalized German citizens after five years of legal residence in Germany: Applicants must demonstrate that they are well integrated into German society. This can be shown by having outstanding educational or professional degrees, being involved in volunteering, or speaking German at a level above B1. Otherwise, nein, nada, niet, no UE German Passport for the asylum seekers.

 

Now, let me ask you a second question? Why would an asylum seeker leave a country like Germany, offering a GDP per capita of €51,304, once they are integrated and speak the local language, to move to start all over again in a country having a GDP per capita of €48,441?

 

The only rational reason is that, in the UK, the Sharia law is one of the law of the land.
It is regularly enforced by Sharia Courts, whose verdicts are binding for Muslims living in the UK.

And this is yet another peculiar consequence of the British insularity.

 

 

[thecyclist]

8 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

Go woke - Go broke

 

Really nothing more to say.

For your limited intellect, yeah. For  well read, more intelligent folks there is a lot more to say.