14 hours ago, short-Timer said:

A complete and utter total abomination. Everything that sweaty old turd touches turns to absolute sh*t. Single-handedly destroying the American economy like a wrecking ball with stage 4 dementia. I’ve never seen anything like it. You’d have to go back to the Great Depression to find anything even remotely on the same level. Even his own constituency turned on him in the Senate yesterday during the vote on Canadian tariffs. Unhinged and as reckless as a bull in a china shop. He just shaved off another 6% of the Nazi carmaker’s wealth today. Nobody minds that, of course, but I wonder if that jittery little spastic jumping goblin has finally done the math and realized that hanging out with the Cheeto-chump convict has done nothing but cost him over $100 billion. At least karma is still alive and well in DC. God save murika. 

Look for Congress to to rein in the power of the executive to branch to implement tariffs.  This should have been done a long time ago. 

 

39 minutes ago, sharot724 said:

Relax everyone as the simple solution is right before us.

 

Trump has reassured markets today that the massive share market crash on 3 April was not due to his new tariffs and were actually caused by the “Biden’s deep state manipulation of the markets”

I knew it! It's probably Soros and Gates and....the Clintons and..................Hunter Biden's laptop!

2 hours ago, IsaanT said:

FYI

Current UK Pound/Thai Baht exchange rate forecasts are for 49-50 baht/£ in fourth quarter this year.

More detail below.

These are just forecasts as of today (4th April), and could be different tomorrow.

P.S. I start building a house in May, with a planned completion in October, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that reality comes close to the forecast. 🤞

Wall Street plummets ,trillions lost.

 

It must be Biden's fault.

The Dow Jones closed 2024 with 15% up. It lost 4% yesterday.

 

Anyone who thinks this is Armaggedon, you're probably wrong.

Nothing is lost as there was only notional/ponzi scheme/gambling  assets in the first place !!

8 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

The Dow Jones closed 2024 with 15% up. It lost 4% yesterday.

 

Anyone who thinks this is Armaggedon, you're probably wrong.

Phew, thank the gods for that - Armageddon is "probably" not here just yet!

Dazed and confused.

While the White House’s top economic advisers insist that the administration’s massive new set of tariffs are non-negotiable, Trump’s made clear he’s not on the same page with his team.

"The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have,” Trump told reporters Thursday aboard Air Force One a day after his Rose Garden “Liberation Day” tariff announcement sunk the market to its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic.

However:

1.  “This is not a negotiation,” Trump adviser Peter Navarro said moments earlier in a CNN interview.

2. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said: “I don’t think there’s any chance Trump is going to back off his tariff.”

What's going on?

Uncertainty

3 different White House officials explicitly said today that the tariffs are not up for negotiation,” YouTube personality Amit Kukreja told his followers on X. “Now Trump says they are. Just more and more uncertainty that the market has no idea how to price in.”

Tearing up current agreements

“What's the point of negotiating with someone who already violated a bunch of trade agreements to impose tariffs?” Julian Sanchez, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute, wrote on Bluesky. “They ALREADY negotiated. And then Trump just decided that didn't mean anything.”

Constant Flip flopping 

Navarro: "Trump is going to stay tough…no negotiation on tariffs *one hour later* Trump: tariffs are negotiable.” X user David Dennison wrote.

Trump, the master bluffer according to Maga

Policy analyst James Medlock posted on Bluesky that the president’s defenders say, “Trump is just pretending to be crazy to get a good negotiating stance. Trump: This is not about negotiating. Defenders: Trump is just saying he's not negotiating, to get an even better negotiating stance.”

‘Deal or no deal?’ Critics pounce as Trump breaks with own aide immediately after TV spot

Not even a hiccup in a massively overbought market.  If the S&P lost 1/2 it's value it would be a healthy correction.  Current valuations is artificial and upsurd. 

 

 

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

It doesn't particularly matter IF the share has been bought for dividend income.

 

Say a share is yielding a dividend of 5%. If the value goes down, and the dividend is maintained, the yield on the share increases.

 

Anyone who buys on a dip in the share price not only gets the dividend, they get a trading gain when the shares recover to reflect the yield.

In principle I would agree with you - dividend income is typically much less risky than seeking asset gains.  However, you will recognise that there are some assumptions in your statement.

Firstly, if global economies shrink (and we go into a recession), the chances of a dividend being maintained at current levels diminishes.  Trump's actions are taking us there rapidly.

Secondly, I have strong reasons to believe we are about to enter a global recession, and it will last a long time.  As the average age of forum members is quite high, we all may not see share prices recover to previous levels in our lifetimes.  Again, Trump's actions - aided by Rachel Reeves in my home country - are taking us there.

FWIW, Wise is currently giving me 3.96% interest which exceeds Thailand's 2023 inflation rate of 1.23% so that's my safe haven for instant access funds now.
 

2 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Support at 37,000 for Dow. 

Have you seen the FTSE today...?

Sure, there will be some moves back up from time to time but look to see if they are impulsive or retracements.

The trend hasn't become fully established yet - it will be unmistakeable when it does.

8 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

In principle I would agree with you - dividend income is typically much less risky than seeking asset gains.  However, you will recognise that there are some assumptions in your statement.

Firstly, if global economies shrink (and we go into a recession), the chances of a dividend being maintained at current levels diminishes.  Trump's actions are taking us there rapidly.

Secondly, I have strong reasons to believe we are about to enter a global recession, and it will last a long time.  As the average age of forum members is quite high, we all may not see share prices recover to previous levels in our lifetimes.  Again, Trump's actions - aided by Rachel Reeves in my home country - are taking us there.

FWIW, Wise is currently giving me 3.96% interest which exceeds Thailand's 2023 inflation rate of 1.23% so that's my safe haven for instant access funds now.
 

Think 5 years ahead

2 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

Have you seen the FTSE today...?

Sure, there will be some moves back up from time to time but look to see if they are impulsive or retracements.

The trend hasn't become fully established yet - it will be unmistakeable when it does.

No what do you think?

2 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

In principle I would agree with you - dividend income is typically much less risky than seeking asset gains.  However, you will recognise that there are some assumptions in your statement.

Firstly, if global economies shrink (and we go into a recession), the chances of a dividend being maintained at current levels diminishes.  Trump's actions are taking us there rapidly.

Secondly, I have strong reasons to believe we are about to enter a global recession, and it will last a long time.  As the average age of forum members is quite high, we all may not see share prices recover to previous levels in our lifetimes.  Again, Trump's actions - aided by Rachel Reeves in my home country - are taking us there.

FWIW, Wise is currently giving me 3.96% interest which exceeds Thailand's 2023 inflation rate of 1.23% so that's my safe haven for instant access funds now.
 

I agree reductions in dividends are a possibility. The shares I own have a policy of paying 50% of net profit in dividends.

 

Financial institutions in Australia are paying quite healthy interest rates - 4.5% on 1 month terms, up to 6.5% for 1 year.

 

I am mostly cashed up, shares are 20%, cash is 80%.

20 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Think 5 years ahead

I do think many years ahead.  In five year's time the current stock markets will be trashed.  For example, you can only hope that the S&P500 stops at 1,000.  But it won't.  All other global markets and indicies will be affected in a similar manner.  Furthermore, as I recently stated here on another thread, the global recession will last a minimum of 16 years.  I'm only 65, and my smartwatch tells me I have a physical age of 55, so I expect to come out the other side; many here won't.

I don't say these things to alarm anyone or feel pleased about myself - my hope is to make people think and do their own research.  This is not a time for complacency about personal finances, particularly for those of us who are retired.

As for anyone who says these drops are presenting great opportunities to buy on the dips, please advise us all when the dips have reached the bottom and you're going to dive back in again so we can all observe quietly from the sidelines (clue: the professionals call it 'catching falling knives').

11 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I agree reductions in dividends are a possibility. The shares I own have a policy of paying 50% of net profit in dividends.

 

Financial institutions in Australia are paying quite healthy interest rates - 4.5% on 1 month terms, up to 6.5% for 1 year.

 

I am mostly cashed up, shares are 20%, cash is 80%.

I've always thought you were a smart contributor, and I continue to believe this.
 

6 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I do think many years ahead.  In five year's time the current stock markets will be trashed.  For example, you can only hope that the S&P500 stops at 1,000.  But it won't.  All other global markets and indicies will be affected in a similar manner.  Furthermore, as I recently stated here on another thread, the global recession will last a minimum of 16 years.  I'm only 65, and my smartwatch tells me I have a physical age of 55, so I expect to come out the other side; many here won't.

I don't say these things to alarm anyone or feel pleased about myself - my hope is to make people think and do their own research.  This is not a time for complacency about personal finances, particularly for those of us who are retired.

As for anyone who says these drops are presenting great opportunities to buy on the dips, please advise us all when the dips have reached the bottom and you're going to dive back in again so we can all observe quietly from the sidelines (clue: the professionals call it 'catching falling knives').

16 years 

3 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

16 years 

You are entitled to your opinion, and I respect that.

However, elephants have long memories and so do I.  I might ask you where you stand on this later this year.  And, as you are self-evidently much younger than me, we can talk about it again in 2041.
 

2 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

You are entitled to your opinion, and I respect that.

However, elephants have long memories and so do I.  I might ask you where you stand on this later this year.
 

 longest recession in U.S. history was the Great Depression, which lasted from August 1929 to March 1933, a duration of 3 years and 7 months

 

average length of a recession in the United States has varied over time. Since 1854, the average recession has lasted about 17 months.234+2 However, since World War II, the average duration has shortened to approximately 10 months

 

The longest bear market in U.S. history occurred from 1973 to 1974, lasting 630 days, or about 21 months.23 During this period, the stock market declined by about 48%. 

25 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

 longest recession in U.S. history was the Great Depression, which lasted from August 1929 to March 1933, a duration of 3 years and 7 months

You are correct and it did, indeed, appear to be a great depression.  The coming one will dwarf it.

I could explain why but there are some very entrenched opinions here and I have no wish to provoke or upset people.  I also try to bring something useful in my posts because expounding my opinion for its own sake is such a meaningless exercise (it would be even more so if it was uninformed).

There are some very bright people here who broadly concur with me about the general direction of travel (although the specifics that I have stated are obviously difficult to comment on because nobody has a crystal ball, do they?).
 

2 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

You are correct and it did, indeed, appear to be a great depression.  The coming one will dwarf it.

I could explain why but there are some very entrenched opinions here and I have no wish to provoke or upset people.  I also try to bring something useful in my posts because expounding my opinion for it's own sake is such a meaningless exercise (it would be even more so if it was uninformed).

There are some very bright people here who broadly agree with me about the general direction of travel (although the specifics that I have stated are obviously difficult to comment on because nobody has a crystal ball, do they?).
 

I think the Dow Jones falls down to the 30,000 worst case to 37,000 range. 18% to 33% fall in total. Usually the high below the low predicts the next low. 

4 hours ago, BLMFem said:

That's got nothing to do with the number of posts but the number of reactions to them. Thought you knew that, being a pro and all.

No, I didn't know that, Do you get deducted everytime someons gives you a 🤡 or 🐂💩 reaction? 

4 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Tell me about it; I'm 30% down... Hoping for a recovery till late 2026.

Stay I'm praying for you ,,,,,,,not sure in which faith  yet but ......

3 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

No, I didn't know that, Do you get deducted everytime someons gives you a 🤡 or 🐂💩 reaction? 

I don't know, better ask the mods. It would probably be wise of you to look into it. That way you can show your employer how much of an influencer you really are,

@Harrisfan, there was a useful thread here recently that covers a lot of the main points in our discussion today.  It is:
 

It's quite long but there are some knowledgeable contributors so you may find it of interest (as an example, I have a lot of time for @Walker88's opinions).

 

36 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I do think many years ahead.  In five year's time the current stock markets will be trashed.  For example, you can only hope that the S&P500 stops at 1,000.  But it won't.  All other global markets and indicies will be affected in a similar manner.  Furthermore, as I recently stated here on another thread, the global recession will last a minimum of 16 years.  I'm only 65, and my smartwatch tells me I have a physical age of 55, so I expect to come out the other side; many here won't.

I don't say these things to alarm anyone or feel pleased about myself - my hope is to make people think and do their own research.  This is not a time for complacency about personal finances, particularly for those of us who are retired.

As for anyone who says these drops are presenting great opportunities to buy on the dips, please advise us all when the dips have reached the bottom and you're going to dive back in again so we can all observe quietly from the sidelines (clue: the professionals call it 'catching falling knives').

Not to sound like a prophet of doom, but there are many signs that are pointing toward a long-term recession leading to a depression, with unemployment rates in the range of 20 to 30% and inflation at 15% or higher, collapsing property prices, and the Dow dropping to 8, 000 to 10,000. 

 

And Disaster Don could be the trigger. Wonder how his supporters will feel about him at that point? 

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

Not to sound like a prophet of doom, but there are many signs that are pointing toward a long-term recession leading to a depression, with unemployment rates in the range of 20 to 30% and inflation at 15% or higher, collapsing property prices, and the Dow dropping to 8, 000 to 10,000. 

 

And Disaster Don could be the trigger. Wonder how his supporters will feel about him at that point? 

Load of rubbish

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Load of rubbish

I'd be really grateful if you could provide some meaningful justification for your opinion.  Otherwise, it just appears to be an uninformed kneejerk expression of your entrenched opinion, and that doesn't show you in a good light, does it?

Come on, you can do better than this.

p.s.  I value @spidermike007's contributions to these forums, too.
 

2 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I'd be really grateful if you could provide some meaningful justification for your opinion.  Otherwise, it just appears to be an uninformed kneejerk expression of your entrenched opinion, and that doesn't show you in a good light, does it?

Come on, you can do better than this.
 

Always the optimist.😉