Poll -- Who will cave first in the momentous China-USA trade war?

[JustinT]

15 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Got it. Carry on, Im sure you joined here to do the Trump bashing.

And I'm sure you have thousands of posts bashing Biden.  It's time to leave the MAGA cult and wake up.

[BangkokReady]

4 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Chinese will sacrifice for their country. They have done it before and will do it again. It is a culture with strong undercurrents of solidarity. US nationals throw temper tantrums when they can't get their Popeye's fried chicken or McDonald fries.

US nationals won't do menial work: They are too full of themselves.

 

One of the main reason Trump was voted in was his promise to "Make America great again", and a big part of that was returning production work to the US.

 

You have no idea what you are talking about and your hatred for Trump has clouded your judgement and disabled your critical thinking ability.

[LosLobo]

Yesterday’s falling capital markets alongside rising bond yields could be the canary in the coal mine—a recession warning, possibly triggered by China quietly offloading U.S. Treasuries.
 

The WH has been playing the “madman theory” card, but Trump showed his hand the moment he hit the panic button with a 90-day pause on select tariffs (China notably excluded).
 

Now China has his measure. They watched Wall Street spook him into retreat, and they’ve rallied their own public with a state media clip of J.D. Vance calling Chinese citizens “peasants.” — textbook national bonding.
 

They’re laying the groundwork—not for surrender, but for defiance.

China won’t cave—not now. They’ve lost face.

The video also suggests Trump may have to thank Xi, just like Vance suggested Zelensky should thank Trump during that WH photo op........
 

 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

 

 

 All that plus China has a nuclear option. 

 

Robin Brooks, senior fellow Brookings. 

 

If China embarked on a mass sale of its US treasuries, the value of the debt would plunge and yields would soar. This would drive up US government borrowing costs and hammer the public finances in a highly destabilising move.

[jvs]

Happy flip day!

Now wait for the flop day?

Today?Tomorrow? or in 90 days?

Anyway a great foundation to plan your business on.

Win! but whom?

[Walker88]

POTUS will cave first, when prices at places MAGAs shop, like Walmart, double.

 

He either caved last night, or else he and his buddies played the market for personal gain.

 

China can start unloading its UST holdings, as well as "nationalize" US investments in China, which will have POTUS' phone ringing off the hook from angry CEOs.

 

China holds the cards.

 

By the way, isn't it sweet of POTUS to sign that EO yesterday authorizing him to prosecute critics? What is Free Speech when you have lese majeste laws by decree.

[Lacessit]

Trump lost the last tariff war with China in his first presidency.

 

The Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 were a prime cause of the Great Depression.

 

Why anyone thinks he can get a different result this time is beyond my comprehension.

[phetphet]

China has learned its lessons from Trump's first presidency.

 

The Chinese have gradually weaned themselves off of US imports, and found alternative suppliers. They have built their own semi conductor industry, automated many factories to lower costs, and massively increased their gold holdings. No one know how much they hold officially, but they are one of the largest gold producers in the world, and they don't export it.

They have even created their own BRICS payment system due to the US weaponisation of the Dollar.

 

IMHO they are more immune to US actions than vice-versa.

 

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

The US, of course. Xi outclasses Trump by 60 IQ points. And he knows how to negotiate, something Trump is terrible at. China is in a far stronger position. The US has tens of thousands of companies that have spent trillions of dollars on infrastructure to manufacture in China. They simply cannot afford to levy these tariffs long term, it would cripple the US economy. 

 

Trump is a dunce. 

[dinsdale]

The world is backing trade with the US evidenced by a willingness to negotiate. China's economy is dependent on selling to the west and it's biggest market is the US. China will need to find markets to dump it's products. Trump holds the cards IMO. 

[Jingthing]

I voted Trump will cave of course.

But if this escalates over time and neither caves then the pushback in the US would result in Trump calling for martial law. That would be his only chance to try to match Xis oppression of his own people 

[JustinT]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

the pushback in the US would result in Trump calling for martial law. That would be his only chance to try to match Xis oppression of his own people 

 

Seems like Trump's plan if he has one.  It would also fit with his talk of staying on after his term is over.

[sammieuk1]

Teach this miserable sex offender a lesson Big Xi 🤔
 

[Jingthing]

Do you see a pattern?

[MicroB]

 

[Eric Loh]

22 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

The world is backing trade with the US evidenced by a willingness to negotiate. China's economy is dependent on selling to the west and it's biggest market is the US. China will need to find markets to dump it's products. Trump holds the cards IMO. 

China is not negotiating. They will retaliate tit for tat. Total export  to US is only 14.8% of total export. China is prepared to take some pain and will pour more money to stimulate domestic consumption. It would not be a fair fight as the political system favours China. Allies of US are discussing with China for more trade bypassing US. Investments will unlikely to go back to US because of the uncertainty created by Trump. The future is bleak for US for next 4 years and even further forward. 

[MicroB]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Trump lost the last tariff war with China in his first presidency.

 

The Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 were a prime cause of the Great Depression.

 

And went on to facilitate much worse.

[beautifulthailand99]

American consumers are about to get a harsh wake-up call: much of the cheap, readily available stuff they’ve come to rely on is about to get significantly more expensive. And globally, there's a growing consensus — the world is learning that Trump's version of America is unpredictable and, frankly, not to be trusted. It has the distinct flavour of end-of-empire decline.

Meanwhile, outside the U.S., the rest of us may actually benefit. As trade relationships shift, many countries can look forward to improved ties with China and a potential influx of affordable goods — the very products that once would have been destined for American shelves. Markets may become more competitive, and prices could drop.

So, in an ironic twist, while the U.S. doubles down on isolationist rhetoric and erratic leadership, the rest of the world might just walk away with the better deal.

Thanks for that, Donald.

 

https://unherd.com/2025/04/china-is-ready-for-battle/

 

Meanwhile, China has a lot of what can be called economic strategic depth. The basic tension in the US/China trade relationship is that the US has been living beyond its means, whereas China has been living well beneath them, repressing wages to keep export prices competitive. Faced with the loss of external markets, the Chinese leadership is now re-orienting the economy towards domestic consumption to pick up the slack, which will lessen the impact of the trade war on ordinary citizens. It thereby has a lot of capacity to absorb lost American sales.

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

 All that plus China has a nuclear option. 

 

Robin Brooks, senior fellow Brookings. 

 

If China embarked on a mass sale of its US treasuries, the value of the debt would plunge and yields would soar. This would drive up US government borrowing costs and hammer the public finances in a highly destabilising move.

They’ve quietly been selling them off since the peak in 2013, fully aware that in the event of a war, they could lose everything. The rest will likely be offloaded quietly in due course. America is the world’s biggest debtor nation — it needs borrowed cash just to keep going and if they print because bond auctions fail then they debauch the dollar. It's looking like the bill is coming in from a decades old binge at the global buffet.

[sammieuk1]

37 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Teach this miserable sex offender a lesson Big Xi 🤔
 

 

[Jingthing]

Uh oh.

 

[3NUMBAS]

[John Drake]

The Chinese will eat grass in order to persevere. Trump and the US will not even follow the law and ban Tik Tok.

[3NUMBAS]

America doesn’t have the skills and engineers to build iPhones ,without china they would be using house phones only and antiquated analogue phones

they can’t do it

[dinsdale]

59 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

China is not negotiating. They will retaliate tit for tat. Total export  to US is only 14.8% of total export. China is prepared to take some pain and will pour more money to stimulate domestic consumption. It would not be a fair fight as the political system favours China. Allies of US are discussing with China for more trade bypassing US. Investments will unlikely to go back to US because of the uncertainty created by Trump. The future is bleak for US for next 4 years and even further forward. 

Pure CCP shill talk.

[NoDisplayName]

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Pure CCP shill talk.

 

Whistling past the graveyard response.

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yrr0e7499o
 

 

Bonds not in a good place

[3NUMBAS]

Confidence in the US economy is plummeting as investors dumped government debt amid growing concerns over the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs.

Governments sell bonds - essentially an IOU - to raise money from financial markets for public spending and in return they pay interest.

The US does not normally see high interest rates on its debt as its bonds are viewed as a safe investment, but on Wednesday rates spiked sharply to touch 4.5%.

The rise came after Trump pressed ahead with sweeping tariffs on goods being imported into the US, while Washington's trade war with China escalated further - although Trump on Wednesday did put a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for some countries.

After the US implemented a 104% tariff on products from China at midnight on Wednesday, Beijing hit back with 84% levy on American products. Trump later raised the tariff on China to 125%.

Stock markets have been falling sharply over the past few days in reaction to the escalating global trade war and fears of tariffs leading to higher prices, although US stocks soared when Trump announced the 90-day pause and a lowered 10% reciprocal tariff for other countries.

However, the sale of bonds in the US poses a major problem for the world's biggest economy.

[JGon]

In China most things are a lie made up by the CCP. From their population figures (probably less than half of what they say), their GDP, questionable quality in some products, cars, planes,  building practices, and on and on... And once a decision is made by Xi there is no turning back (the save face cultural thing). Just like zero COVID, they will keep at it despite being idiotic.

This trade war was a trap, and China took the bait. China retaliated thinking the whole world was going to go with them… The question is… will they continue to try to “save face” and continue (like they did with zero COVID) or will they cave?

Btw- I don’t hate China as a whole. I just don’t agree with the actions of their government.

[NoDisplayName]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

The world is backing trade with the US evidenced by a willingness to negotiate. China's economy is dependent on selling to the west and it's biggest market is the US. China will need to find markets to dump it's products. Trump holds the cards IMO. 

 

Is that still true anymore?  The US is no longer the 'west'.  Trump can only bully his alleged allies so much, sanctions are losing their effectiveness.  Even his European vassals are beginning to show signs of independence.

 

The US only accounts for about 14% of Chinese exports, and that number is quickly dropping.  Can the Chinese shift their exports?

 

I suppose Russia would like to buy combat drones and military equipment.

 

Iran might like to buy a whole fleet of civilian airliners, stealth aircraft, and perhaps a couple nukular subs, which would give them a legitimate use for their 60%-enriched iranium.

 

North Korea could use a couple thousand spy balloons to drop poop on Seoul, for which they could trade mail-order brides.

 

All of Africa needs more investment, more railroads, more highways, more hospitals, more industrial parks providing employment and wages with which to purchase Chinese products.  A nice change from military bases droning wedding parties and regime-changing stable governments.

 

Maybe they'll go ahead and build that alternative to the Panama Canal, and do it with permission of the locals this time.