Early assessment suggests US strikes didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear sites

[dinsdale]

16 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Because they don't serve the people. They serve Trump. Surely you realize that by now.

Pure deflection and a total avoidance of anything that doesn't conform to your confirmation bias. Read this although I'm sure you'll respond with a thumbs down and some deranged anti-Trump comment. Highly edited comments (lifted from the transcipt) from Hesgeth but of course I have linked the full video for reference above. I'm guessing you haven't watched one second of it.

i want to read some of the assessments that have been provided because whether it's fake news CNN MSNBC or the New York

16:02

Times there's been faing coverage of a preliminary assessment i've had a chance

16:08

to read it all every every outlet has breathlessly reported on a preliminary assessment from DIA i'm looking at it

16:16

right now again it was preliminary a day and a half after the actual strike when it

16:22

admits itself in writing that it requires weeks to accumulate the necessary data to make such an assessment it's preliminary it points

16:29

out that it's not been coordinated with the intelligence community at all uh there's low confidence in this

16:35particular report there's it says in the report there are gaps in the information

but here's what other folks are saying the DIA that put that report out says this is a 

17:17

preliminary low confidence report and will continue to be refined as additional intelligence becomes

17:23

available how about the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission the devastating US strikes on

17:29Ford destroyed the site's critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable

17:42

how about this one this is a new one from the UN the United Nations no friend of the United

17:48

States or certainly Israel often here's the head of the UN Atomic Energy Agency

17:54

this morning Raphael Gi us and Israeli strikes caused enormous damage to Iran's

18:01

nuclear sites don't take my word for it how about the IDF's chief of staff i can

18:07

say here that the assessment is that we significantly damage the nuclear program setting it back by years i repeat years

john Radcliffe the director of the CIA putting out a statement just last night

18:29

cia can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran's nuclear program has been severely damaged by

18:36

recent targeted strikes this includes new intelligence from a historically reliable very different than preliminary

18:44

assessment with low confidence he's saying historically reliable and accurate source and method that several

18:50

key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt

18:57

over the course of years cia continues to collect additional reliably sourced

19:03

information to keep appropriate decision makers fully informed how about DNI

19:09

Telsey Gabbard yesterday she writes and I quote "New intelligence confirms what POTUS has stated numerous

19:16

times iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed

19:22

institute for Science and International Security President David Albbright overall Israel and US attacks have

19:29effectively destroyed UN Iran's centrifuge enrichment program time

 

The reality I live in which is obviously different to yours tells me that the US has the most powerful and sophisticated armed forces in the world with very, very, very advanced ways to collect intelligence and data. Again this thread, based on a report from CNN which in turn is based on bits of a leaked preliminary assessment is incorrect in it's assumption. You, however, a quite free to, and obviously will continue to, believe everything the MSM tells you.

[DezLez]

3 hours ago, mogandave said:

As I understand it, it was 15 years of of planning that came to fruition, and it was executed flawlessly. 

 

 

But did it achieve it's objective?

The jury is out until, if ever, we get verifiable proof one way or the other.

[sharot724]

2 minutes ago, DezLez said:

But did it achieve it's objective?

The jury is out until, if ever, we get verifiable proof one way or the other.

This will take weeks to gather many different Intelligence agencys

[DezLez]

5 minutes ago, sharot724 said:

This will take weeks to gather many different Intelligence agencys

That is my point so why all the garbage everywhere about what has actually happened or not.

let us wait and stop speculating.  That includes Trump and his cabal.

[mogandave]

17 minutes ago, sharot724 said:

This will take weeks to gather many different Intelligence agencys

So the  “news” outlets that are reporting it was a failure are liars. 

[BLMFem]

13 minutes ago, mogandave said:

So the  “news” outlets that are reporting it was a failure are liars. 

Maybe you can link to the articles where it's stated that the attacks were a failure? That's only fair, right?

And just to be clear; I'm not talking about news articles that reported the leaked initial BDAs, because that's not the same as reporting the attacks were a failure. I'm sure you'd never be that dishonest but I just had to make that clear to you.

[jerrymahoney]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2025/06/25/trump-slams-cnn-reporter-natasha-bertrand/84357225007/

 

[DezLez]

43 minutes ago, mogandave said:

So the  “news” outlets that are reporting it was a failure are liars. 

None of the outlets know for sure what the damage is until full site investigations are ever carried out!

[xylophone]

18 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2025/06/25/trump-slams-cnn-reporter-natasha-bertrand/84357225007/

 

Senior US officials have conceded they do not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.

 

Before the US strikes, there was evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity from Isfahan.

 

Grossi told the New York Times by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of UN inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. The fuel is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the boots of about 10 cars.

 

However, there has been concern, prompted in part by satellite imagery showing trucks leaving Fordow before the attack, that Iran may have saved significant quantities of its enriched uranium.

 

This comes on top of earlier intelligence leaks to various US news outlets suggesting that the attacks had only set back the programme by a matter of months, prompting furious denials from the White House.

[LosLobo]

5 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Exactly. Listen to the General. The weapons used were designed specifically to target and eradicate Iran's nuclear facilities. And they did. 

 

That’s spin. Here’s what Gen. Dan Caine actually said:
 

“Ultimately, weaponeering is determining the right weapon and fuse combination to achieve the desired effects and maximum destruction against a target. … The weapons were designed (meaning with the right fusing etc), planned and delivered to ensure that they achieve the effects in the mission space.”
 

The MOP wasn’t built for Iran; it targets any deep, hardened bunker. Fordow merely fit the profile. The bomb’s concept dates to ~2000, almost a decade before Fordow surfaced in 2009.
 

Weapons are built for capability, not for one country.

Trump’s claimed “obliteration” is unverified political theater.

[DezLez]

1 hour ago, mogandave said:

So the  “news” outlets that are reporting it was a failure are liars. 

No one knows at present!

[candide]

1 hour ago, xylophone said:

Senior US officials have conceded they do not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.

 

Before the US strikes, there was evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity from Isfahan.

 

Grossi told the New York Times by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of UN inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. The fuel is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the boots of about 10 cars.

 

However, there has been concern, prompted in part by satellite imagery showing trucks leaving Fordow before the attack, that Iran may have saved significant quantities of its enriched uranium.

 

This comes on top of earlier intelligence leaks to various US news outlets suggesting that the attacks had only set back the programme by a matter of months, prompting furious denials from the White House.

Well, the U.S. and Israel are asking Iran to hand over the nuclear material. So I guess they think it has not all been destroyed.... 

 

In an interview with Israel’s Channel 13, Israel Katz discussed the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that took place over the weekend.

“It was clear from the beginning that the strike would neutralize the surrounding infrastructure — it wouldn’t eliminate the (nuclear) material itself. Now there is a joint American-Israeli position saying to Iran, ‘You must hand over this material,’” Katz said in the interview, which aired Thursday."

 

June 26, 2025 – Israel-Iran conflict | CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-us-trump-06-26-25-intl-hnk?iid=cnn-mobile-app&iid=cnn-mobile-app#cmcdqno5200003b6pcx0by6y3

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, LosLobo said:

The MOP wasn’t built for Iran;

You clearly haven't seen the briefing. 2 people worked on taking out the Fordow facility for 15 years and the GBU-57 was developed out of this. The GBU-57 was developed specifically for Fordow.

[xylophone]

19 minutes ago, candide said:

Well, the U.S. and Israel are asking Iran to hand over the nuclear material. So I guess they think it has not all been destroyed.... 

 

In an interview with Israel’s Channel 13, Israel Katz discussed the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that took place over the weekend.

“It was clear from the beginning that the strike would neutralize the surrounding infrastructure — it wouldn’t eliminate the (nuclear) material itself. Now there is a joint American-Israeli position saying to Iran, ‘You must hand over this material,’” Katz said in the interview, which aired Thursday."

 

June 26, 2025 – Israel-Iran conflict | CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-us-trump-06-26-25-intl-hnk?iid=cnn-mobile-app&iid=cnn-mobile-app#cmcdqno5200003b6pcx0by6y3

Well Trump has been a compulsive liar for most of his life, so why would anyone believe what he says about the Iranian nuclear stockpile being "obliterated"??

[BLMFem]

12 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

You clearly haven't seen the briefing. 2 people worked on taking out the Fordow facility for 15 years and the GBU-57 was developed out of this. The GBU-57 was developed specifically for Fordow.

 

Grok3:

The claim that the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) was developed specifically for Iran's Fordow nuclear facility is partially accurate but oversimplifies the context. The GBU-57 MOP, a 30,000-pound precision-guided bunker-buster bomb, was developed by Boeing for the U.S. Air Force starting in the early 2000s, with the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) leading the effort to address deeply buried and hardened targets. The development was driven by lessons from the 2003 Iraq invasion, where existing bunker-busting munitions like the GBU-28 proved insufficient against deeply fortified structures. The MOP was designed to penetrate up to 200 feet of concrete or rock, targeting facilities like those used for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or command centers.
While Fordow, Iran's deeply buried uranium enrichment facility near Qom, became a significant focus for the MOP program, it was not the sole driver. Fordow's construction, which began around 2006 and was disclosed to the IAEA in 2009 after Western intelligence became aware of it, aligned with the MOP's development timeline. The facility, buried 260-300 feet under a mountain, was a key example of the kind of hardened target the MOP was designed to address. General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted in a June 2025 press conference that the need to strike Fordow was a "key aspect" in the MOP’s development, and the weapon was tailored to counter such deeply buried sites. However, the MOP was part of a broader "Big BLU" program to address a range of hardened targets globally, including those in countries like North Korea, China, and Russia, which also maintain extensive underground infrastructure.
The claim is misleading in suggesting Fordow was the only target, as the MOP's development predates public knowledge of Fordow and was intended for a wider strategic purpose. Nonetheless, Fordow's emergence as a critical target significantly influenced the weapon’s design and testing, culminating in its first combat use on June 22, 2025, when B-2 Spirit bombers dropped 14 MOPs on Fordow and Natanz during Operation Midnight Hammer.

[jerrymahoney]

TWZ (the war zone) headline Updated Jun 26, 2025 2:07 PM EDT:

 

Everything We Just Learned About The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Strikes On Iran
The strikes on Fordow were 15 years in the making, with that target being the primary driver behind the MOP's development and evolution.
 

https://www.twz.com/air/gbu-57-massive-ordnance-penetrator-strikes-on-iran-everything-we-just-learned

 

 

[dinsdale]

38 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

You clearly haven't seen the briefing. 2 people worked on taking out the Fordow facility for 15 years and the GBU-57 was developed out of this. The GBU-57 was developed specifically for Fordow.

To whoever gave a laughing emoji to this post here's a few more facts for you to ignore.

US began secretly designing bombs specifically to target Iran’s Fordow 15 years ago

https://nypost.com/2025/06/26/us-news/us-began-designing-bombs-specifically-to-target-irans-fordow-15-years-ago/

Everything We Just Learned About The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator Strikes On Iran

The strikes on Fordow were 15 years in the making, with that target being the primary driver behind the MOP's development and evolution.

“There’s an organization in the U.S. called the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, DTRA. DTRA does a lot of things for our nation, but DTRA is the world’s leading expert on deeply buried, underground targets,” Caine said by way of introduction into his remarks about the MOP. “In 2009, a Defense Threat Reduction Agency officer was brought into a vault at an undisclosed location and briefed on something going on in Iran for security purposes. I’m not going to share his name.”

“He was shown some photos and some highly classified intelligence of what looked like a major construction project in the mountains of Iran. He was tasked to study this facility, [and] work with the intelligence community to understand it, and he was soon joined by an additional teammate,” Caine continued. “For more than 15 years, this officer and his teammate lived and breathed this single target, Fordow, a critical element of Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program. He studied the geology. He watched the Iranians dig it out. He watched the construction, the weather, the discard material, the geology, the construction materials, where the materials came from. He looked at the vent shaft, the exhaust shaft, the electrical systems, the environmental control systems, every nook, every crater, every piece of equipment going in and every piece of equipment going out.”

“They literally dreamed about this target at night, when they slept,” he added. “They thought about it driving back and forth to work, and they knew from the very first days what this was for. You do not build a multi-layered underground bunker complex with centrifuges and other equipment in a mountain for any peaceful purpose.”

“Along the way, they realized we did not have a weapon that could adequately strike and kill this target,” according to Caine. “So they began a journey to work with industry and other tacticians to develop the GBU-57.”

https://www.twz.com/air/gbu-57-massive-ordnance-penetrator-strikes-on-iran-everything-we-just-learned

 

[jimmybcool]

7 hours ago, BarraMarra said:

Its nothing to do with Political games or the other BS given out the facts are its wrong to say it was " Obliterated" without sufficient 100% proof.

 

This is one of my issues with Trump.  I approve that he ordered the strike.  I THINK it accomplished it's purpose.  But he declared massive success prior to knowing it.  He does jump the gun.

[theblether]

Is this BS still going? stop feeding these witless trolls - complete and utter clowns. No doubt one of them will start arguing that Abbas is lying. Fools. 

 

Iran's foreign minister has admitted that "excessive and serious" damage was done to the country's nuclear sites in the recent US and Israeli bombings.

Abbas Araghchi told a state broadcaster on Thursday evening that an assessment of the damage is being carried out by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmv3kp744ro

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, theblether said:

Is this BS still going? stop feeding these witless trolls - complete and utter clowns. No doubt one of them will start arguing that Abbas is lying. Fools. 

 

Iran's foreign minister has admitted that "excessive and serious" damage was done to the country's nuclear sites in the recent US and Israeli bombings.

Abbas Araghchi told a state broadcaster on Thursday evening that an assessment of the damage is being carried out by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmv3kp744ro

Is your BS still going?

Excessive and serious is not exactly the same thing as completely obliterated, now is it?
Or is being honest too much to ask?

Also about honesty, no I wouldn't think the foreign minister of Iran is a reliable source. He would have motivation to distort either way. Say no damage -- good propaganda. Say massive damage -- could be a bluffing tactic so they are left alone. BTW -- do you believe the foreign minister of Iran's crappy ally, Russia? All he does is lie. 

 

My understanding is that Israeli intelligence which is active within Iran will know close to the truth but that could take months. But even then, depending on what they discover, can they be trusted to make the info public?

[dinsdale]

33 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Excessive and serious is not exactly the same thing as completely obliterated, now is it?

Semantics.

[Jingthing]

Just now, dinsdale said:

Semantics.

Incorrect.

Obliterated means totally destroyed.

Excessive and serious doesn't mean that. 

 

[pegman]

Who 2 believe? The mad mullah or the con-man\convicted felon. Pox on both their houses. 

[Jingthing]

13 minutes ago, pegman said:

Who 2 believe? The mad mullah or the con-man\convicted felon. Pox on both their houses. 

Yes.

Be patient and wait for more information which may take months.

[candide]

2 hours ago, theblether said:

Is this BS still going? stop feeding these witless trolls - complete and utter clowns. No doubt one of them will start arguing that Abbas is lying. Fools. 

 

Iran's foreign minister has admitted that "excessive and serious" damage was done to the country's nuclear sites in the recent US and Israeli bombings.

Abbas Araghchi told a state broadcaster on Thursday evening that an assessment of the damage is being carried out by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmv3kp744ro

And Khamenei stated exactly the opposite

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/26/trump-khamenei-iran-us-strike

 

It seems that they have adopted Trump's m.o. to say one thing and its opposite at the same time!  🤣

 

 

[dinsdale]

25 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Incorrect.

Obliterated means totally destroyed.

Excessive and serious doesn't mean that. 

 

For Immediate Release: June 25, 2025

Statement from Director John Ratcliffe about Intelligence on Iran's Nuclear Program

“CIA can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran’s Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes. This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years. CIA continues to collect additional reliably sourced information to keep appropriate decision-makers and oversight bodies fully informed. When possible, we will also provide updates and information to the American public, given the national importance of this matter and in every attempt to provide transparency.”

https://www.cia.gov/stories/story/statement-from-director-john-ratcliffe-about-intelligence-on-irans-nuclear-program/

This is now the consensus opinion. Years not months. 

 

[dinsdale]

17 minutes ago, candide said:

And Khamenei stated exactly the opposite

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/26/trump-khamenei-iran-us-strike

 

It seems that they have adopted Trump's m.o. to say one thing and its opposite at the same time!  🤣

 

 

Sure. He's also claimed victory over Israel which is absurd. His comments are purely propaganda for domestic consumption.