USA Trump 'Madman Theory' How Unpredictability Is Shaping Global Power Dynamics

[Social Media]

 

When asked last month whether he would join Israel in attacking Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump gave an answer that typifies his foreign policy style: “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do.” While the world believed Trump had agreed to a pause for Iran to return to negotiations, he launched airstrikes anyway.

 

 

This is no accident. Trump has turned unpredictability into a deliberate strategy—one rooted in the so-called “Madman Theory,” a term made famous during Richard Nixon’s presidency. The theory suggests a leader can gain the upper hand by appearing irrational, keeping opponents off balance and uncertain of the next move. Peter Trubowitz, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, notes, “[Trump] has put together a highly centralised policy-making operation, arguably the most centralised, at least in the area of foreign policy, since Richard Nixon.” He adds, “That makes policy decisions more dependent on Trump's character, his preferences, his temperament.”

 

 

Trump’s strategy has often involved contradicting allies while cozying up to adversaries. In his second term, he embraced Vladimir Putin while publicly insulting traditional allies like Canada and Denmark. He even floated annexing Greenland and called into question America's commitment to NATO’s mutual defense pact. “I think Article 5 is on life support,” said former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. Meanwhile, Dominic Grieve, a former Conservative Attorney General, declared, “For now the trans-Atlantic alliance is over.”

 

 

This attitude appeared to resonate inside the White House. Leaked text messages from senior Trump officials showed disdain for European partners. “I fully share your loathing of European freeloaders,” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote, adding, “PATHETIC.” At a summit in Munich, Vice President JD Vance declared the U.S. would no longer guarantee Europe’s security.

 

 

Nevertheless, Trump’s approach has yielded results. Only months ago, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to increase defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP. By the time of the most recent NATO summit, that had risen to 5%, now matched by other alliance members. “My sense is that most people in Trump's orbit think that unpredictability is a good thing, because it allows Donald Trump to leverage America's clout for maximum gain,” said Trubowitz.

 

Trump isn’t the first to use unpredictability as a diplomatic tool. In 1968, Nixon told his national security advisor to convince the North Vietnamese he was “crazy,” to force them into agreement. “That’s the madman theory,” says Professor Michael Desch of Notre Dame.

 

Yet this same unpredictability has created vulnerabilities. “It’s very hard to know what’s coming from day to day,” says Professor Julie Norman of University College London. She warns that the tactic could backfire, making the U.S. seem unreliable. “People won’t want to do business with the U.S. if they don’t trust the U.S. in negotiations,” she said.

 

Trump’s unpredictability has also failed to win over adversaries like Vladimir Putin or Iran. Though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was pressured into granting the U.S. access to valuable mineral rights, Putin remains unmoved. Trump recently lamented Putin’s refusal to end the war in Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, his strikes on Iran may push the Islamic Republic further toward acquiring nuclear weapons. “I think it’s now highly likely that Iran will make the decision to pursue a nuclear weapon,” says Desch. Mohsen Milani, professor at the University of South Florida, adds, “The exact opposite happened” from what the U.S. and Israel had hoped. “That was the Israeli and American calculation too… that Iran is going to surrender quickly or the whole system is going to collapse.”

 

As Trump’s strategy reshapes global alliances, Europe is beginning to reconsider its dependency on U.S. defense guarantees. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has urged Europe to become more operationally independent. “They're not going to snap back to the way they were before Trump took office,” says Trubowitz.

 

While European leaders may try to keep Trump onside through flattery and policy concessions—NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte once texted, “You will achieve something NO president in decades could get done”—the inherent instability remains. “Mr. Rutte, he's trying to embarrass you, sir. He's literally sitting on Air Force One laughing at you,” quipped former Trump aide Anthony Scaramucci.

 

Trump’s foreign policy may be built partly on strategy and partly on personality, but either way, it is working—at least on America’s allies. Whether it can reshape relations with enemies remains a far more uncertain proposition.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from BBC  2025-07-07

 

 

[Emdog]

Nixon played at madman. Nixon was smart and knew the world situation

Trump is madman. I knew far more than he when I was 11 

 

[Eric Loh]

7 hours ago, Social Media said:

 

This is no accident. Trump has turned unpredictability into a deliberate strategy

It is a personality disorder not a deliberate strategy. 

[soalbundy]

All he has done is to show America is untrustworthy. Canada has now turned to Europe for defense and energy contracts, Steel and Aluminium once earmarked for the USA is now headed for Europe ( export increase of 346%) and Asia. Jet fighter procurement's from Sweden, Radar from the UK, subs from Germany.

 

Meanwhile American companies bemoan a lack of high grade steel and special aluminium from Canada as well as Canadian oil, American refineries are adapted to Canadian, not American crude, the oil is heading to China while Europe takes Canadian LNG instead of American. Trumps tariffs have created a void that Asia and Europe are willing to fill. 5 large American firms have already relocated to Canada due to tariff instability. 

 

America has lost its leadership role under Trump, supply chains are being adjusted away from American influence, Greenland being a good example, the arrogance Trump showed towards Denmark and Greenland opened the door to mineral contracts being awarded to Canada and Europe, while China is expanding into Africa. American isolationism is going to be expensive.

[impulse]

Gosh.  It almost makes you wish the Dems had put up a qualified candidate.  2024 was theirs to lose.  And boy, did they ever.

 

Gonna be a rough 3+ years for some...  But not for America, with the economy zipping along and the borders secure.

 

 

[Hamus Yaigh]

The guy who is trying to do a deal with Mr Japan. Yep he's mad alright.

[cjinchiangrai]

28 minutes ago, Hamus Yaigh said:

The guy who is trying to do a deal with Mr Japan. Yep he's mad alright.

Japan is happy to make a seal but then spec you out of the market. Trump is going to get taken to the cleaners by the Japanese, And when he does, he will trash another market. The economic incompetence is an embarrassment to the US and Penn.

[spidermike007]

Trump is destroying the US economy one step at a time. It could be intentional. It could be diabolical. Nobody knows. He could simply be unhinged or following the dictates of a very sinister cabal. 

 

One thing is certain. He is accomplishing very little, he will NOT bring manufacturing back to America, which is stupid over priced (I am here now and inflation is raging at 20% or higher right now), he is causing alot of pain, he is losing support, destroying businesses, and consumer confidence, he does not have a coherent plan, and he is a destructive nimwit.

 

Globalization made the world great, the manufacturing ecosystems within globalization and low tariffs allowed the US economy to thrive for decades, and he's never going to bring back manufacturing to the US. End of story, just a slogan. The fact that so many people are buying into his nonsense and destruction, is what is truly sad. 

 

I don’t think he has a coherent value structure as most of us understand it. I think we’re seeing a president who’s operating without anything any of us would recognize as a conscience. Truly.

 

It is about showing what he can get away with. It’s about showing his enemies that what they support, he can tear down. It is all about displays of brute strength. He gets off on that, and in that sense, it seems not so much an autocracy but a flexocracy. Let me show you how I can flex my bicep as I use it to power my fist coming into your face.

 

It’s not about any coherent values. It’s not about any North Star. It’s about showing that you can turn the boat 180 degrees around and that you can do whatever you want and you can bring the people who opposed you to their knees.

 

 

 

 

 

[soalbundy]

46 minutes ago, impulse said:

Gosh.  It almost makes you wish the Dems had put up a qualified candidate.  2024 was theirs to lose.  And boy, did they ever.

 

Gonna be a rough 3+ years for some...  But not for America, with the economy zipping along and the borders secure.

 

 

Yeah,  33,000 jobs lost against a forecast of plus 99,000. Way to go Trump.

[JonnyF]

He's got them on tenterhooks.

 

Keep 'em guessing Don.

[Magictoad]

So he kept people waiting? Then attacked! Excellent strategy.  The ranians  had no idea what was happening LOL. He may hit them again; who knows? The Iranians surely don't.

I find all this carping about Trump to be very unamerican. Very unpatriotic! The least you could do is show him some support or plan your next campaign.  How is that going BTW. I think the Democrats  are finished. Lost. Done. Where is the Kennedy like figure to drag them out of the doldrums?

[cjinchiangrai]

13 minutes ago, Magictoad said:

So he kept people waiting? Then attacked! Excellent strategy.  The ranians  had no idea what was happening LOL. He may hit them again; who knows? The Iranians surely don't.

I find all this carping about Trump to be very unamerican. Very unpatriotic! The least you could do is show him some support or plan your next campaign.  How is that going BTW. I think the Democrats  are finished. Lost. Done. Where is the Kennedy like figure to drag them out of the doldrums?

Or maybe the Iranians will attack Mar a Lago. Smashing the bees nest can have consequences.

 

Trump is the traitor, the patriots move is to defend the constitution, not support a fascist dictator.

[connda]

Trump 'Madman Theory' How Unpredictability Is Shaping Global Power Dynamics

 

Most countries consider the US to be agreement and treaty incapable. Which is a direct consequence of the "Madman Theory."
Trump's idiocy is going to bankrupt the US and I fully expect the Republicans to lose Congress in 2026 and the Presidency in 2028.

[Eric Loh]

31 minutes ago, Magictoad said:

So he kept people waiting? Then attacked! Excellent strategy.  The ranians  had no idea what was happening LOL. He may hit them again; who knows? The Iranians surely don't.

I find all this carping about Trump to be very unamerican. Very unpatriotic! The least you could do is show him some support or plan your next campaign.  How is that going BTW. I think the Democrats  are finished. Lost. Done. Where is the Kennedy like figure to drag them out of the doldrums?

Thats not a strategy but an aberration. It is not normal behavior for a country to attack another country without legitimate justification. It is another WMD madness or excuse to attack another country on false pretext. Maybe you can explain what is Trump's major or overall aim for the bombing after his own intelligence assessment said there was no evidence Iran making any nuclear bomb. Are you going to support your leader making big decision based on his personal judgement or doing his biding for Netanyahu. 

[impulse]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

Yeah,  33,000 jobs lost against a forecast of plus 99,000. Way to go Trump.

 

Where?  Other than Federal employees and the foreign born there's been nothing but job growth since Inauguration Day.  Grow the private sector economy, deport the illegals and get rid of fat in the Federal gub'ment.  As promised. 

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV

 

 

You need to look at the actual numbers and not just what CNN, MSDNC, Whoopie, Joy and Rachel want you to see.

 

 

[CallumWK]

Another example of the unpredictable madman, flushing the US down the toilet at a rapid rate.

 

Trump Warns of 10% Tariff for ‘Anti-American’ BRICS Policies

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-warns-10-tariff-anti-075719680.html

 

President Donald Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS,” injecting further uncertainty into global trade as the US continues to negotiate levies with many trading partners.

 

“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

[impulse]

1 hour ago, Magictoad said:

How is that going BTW. I think the Democrats  are finished. Lost. Done. Where is the Kennedy like figure to drag them out of the doldrums?

 

Defending MS13 members and dudes in chick sports are certainly strange hills to choose to die on.  Add in the "mostly peaceful" ICE protests and socialist mayoral candidates...  Even Carville is rolling over in his grave and pulling his hair out, and he's not even dead.  But he knows the DNC is.

 

Their only hope is that the new 3rd party siphons off enough conservative voters that the promise of free stuff from OPM rules the day.  Again.

[Eric Loh]

30 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Another example of the unpredictable madman, flushing the US down the toilet at a rapid rate.

 

Trump Warns of 10% Tariff for ‘Anti-American’ BRICS Policies

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-warns-10-tariff-anti-075719680.html

 

President Donald Trump said he would put an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS,” injecting further uncertainty into global trade as the US continues to negotiate levies with many trading partners.

 

“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “There will be no exceptions to this policy.”

He has traits of personality disorders like inconsistent behavior, distorted self image and problems with impluse control. He is so easily triggered and so unpredictable. He is running the country to the ground and alienating trading partners. 

[soalbundy]

28 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Where?  Other than Federal employees and the foreign born there's been nothing but job growth since Inauguration Day.  Grow the private sector economy, deport the illegals and get rid of fat in the Federal gub'ment.  As promised. 

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV

 

 

You need to look at the actual numbers and not just what CNN, MSDNC, Whoopie, Joy and Rachel want you to see.

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Where?  Other than Federal employees and the foreign born there's been nothing but job growth since Inauguration Day.  Grow the private sector economy, deport the illegals and get rid of fat in the Federal gub'ment.  As promised. 

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV

 

 

You need to look at the actual numbers and not just what CNN, MSDNC, Whoopie, Joy and Rachel want you to see.

 

 

On youtube  an excerpt of Fox news was shown where the lady was interviewing the minister for trade I believe, they were eagerly awaiting the newest employment figures to show up on the screen, being Trumpists they thought this would exonerate Trumps policies, instead minus 33,000 came up on the screen and she quickly changed the subject and glossed over the incident.

 

It's pretty obvious really, if imports are slowing down it means fewer goods are being sold, it means fewer workers are needed to move those goods, this affects port workers, transport, and retail workers. Factory workers at Fords and GM are being laid off, some Walmart branches are being closed which means those people have less discretionary income which in turn will cause other places like McDonalds to close, it's a vicious loop.

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, Magictoad said:

So he kept people waiting? Then attacked! Excellent strategy.  The ranians  had no idea what was happening LOL. He may hit them again; who knows? The Iranians surely don't.

I find all this carping about Trump to be very unamerican. Very unpatriotic! The least you could do is show him some support or plan your next campaign.  How is that going BTW. I think the Democrats  are finished. Lost. Done. Where is the Kennedy like figure to drag them out of the doldrums?

Let's wait for the mid term elections shall we, the MAGA mob has already figured out that Trump and his sycophant GOP have taken them to the cleaners.

[impulse]

12 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

 

On youtube  an excerpt of Fox news was shown where the lady was interviewing the minister for trade I believe, they were eagerly awaiting the newest employment figures to show up on the screen, being Trumpists they thought this would exonerate Trumps policies, instead minus 33,000 came up on the screen and she quickly changed the subject and glossed over the incident.

 

It's pretty obvious really, if imports are slowing down it means fewer goods are being sold, it means fewer workers are needed to move those goods, this affects port workers, transport, and retail workers. Factory workers at Fords and GM are being laid off, some Walmart branches are being closed which means those people have less discretionary income which in turn will cause other places like McDonalds to close, it's a vicious loop.

 

So your source is a fleeting Fox screen on a random YouTube.  Right.  That's definitive.  In Bizzaro World.

 

The St Louis Fed says different.  You can listen to the pundits' spin.  I like to go to the root numbers.

 

[CallumWK]

2 hours ago, Magictoad said:

The ranians  had no idea what was happening LOL

 

Is that why they were moving all the enriched uranium to a new secret site, the week before madman attacked?

[cjinchiangrai]

4 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

Is that why they were moving all the enriched uranium to a new secret site, the week before madman attacked?

No, they did that because Trump tipped off Putin and Putin tipped off the Iranians.

[Mavideol]

the erratic behavior, impulsive, revengeful, holding grudges will affect the USA relationship with the international community for many years to come, his so called tariffs war and bad deals will affect the American way of doing business and how the America will (is) be perceived/damaging relationships with previous friends and allies and in the mean time it's just helping China

 

CNN Data Chief ‘Never Thought I'd See’ This Stunning Shift In Sentiment

https://au.news.yahoo.com/cnn-data-chief-never-thought-064947983.html

 

[soalbundy]

9 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

So your source is a fleeting Fox screen on a random YouTube.  Right.  That's definitive.  In Bizzaro World.

 

The St Louis Fed says different.  You can listen to the pundits' spin.  I like to go to the root numbers.

 

Those numbers are projections which get corrected in the following months, hence 99,000 projected, reality minus 33,000. The Dollar has now dropped 11% and investors are moving money out off the US, they couldn't even sell 22 billion Dollars of bonds, ie debt to foreigners, the treasury had to step in, the printing presses are rolling. The US has 2.4% inflation (government figures so probably higher) China has 0.8% and their exports are climbing, they don't need America but America needs cheap Chinese goods (like MAGA caps and American flags) as well as rare earths. Nobody is rushing to do a deal with America, it's being circumvented instead.

[Felton Jarvis]

It's no "theory", Trump is dangerously mental.

[bubblegum]

He'll be soon begging for deals.

He and his whole cabinet are now in a lawsuit started by this Garcia bloke, they never should have done that. So stupid. But then again there aren't that much folks with brain in his circle.

[Tug]

It’s kinda misleading in a way many countries have learned how to manage trumps mental illness.yes he is unpredictable to a degree but within his mental shortcomings he’s kinda easy to read and use….look to putin he’s mastered trump,so much so that to many Americans he appears to be a straight up traitor.

[cjinchiangrai]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

It’s kinda misleading in a way many countries have learned how to manage trumps mental illness.yes he is unpredictable to a degree but within his mental shortcomings he’s kinda easy to read and use….look to putin he’s mastered trump,so much so that to many Americans he appears to be a straight up traitor.

After betraying the Syrian Kurds, he confirmed traitor status. BTW, where are the rest of the documents from his toilet?

[0ffshore360]

5 hours ago, impulse said:

Gosh.  It almost makes you wish the Dems had put up a qualified candidate.  2024 was theirs to lose.  And boy, did they ever.

 

Gonna be a rough 3+ years for some...  But not for America, with the economy zipping along and the borders secure.

 

 

Rainbow perspectives are now suspect !