USA Trump 'Madman Theory' How Unpredictability Is Shaping Global Power Dynamics

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When asked last month whether he would join Israel in attacking Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump gave an answer that typifies his foreign policy style: “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do.” While the world believed Trump had agreed to a pause for Iran to return to negotiations, he launched airstrikes anyway.

 

 

This is no accident. Trump has turned unpredictability into a deliberate strategy—one rooted in the so-called “Madman Theory,” a term made famous during Richard Nixon’s presidency. The theory suggests a leader can gain the upper hand by appearing irrational, keeping opponents off balance and uncertain of the next move. Peter Trubowitz, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, notes, “[Trump] has put together a highly centralised policy-making operation, arguably the most centralised, at least in the area of foreign policy, since Richard Nixon.” He adds, “That makes policy decisions more dependent on Trump's character, his preferences, his temperament.”

 

 

Trump’s strategy has often involved contradicting allies while cozying up to adversaries. In his second term, he embraced Vladimir Putin while publicly insulting traditional allies like Canada and Denmark. He even floated annexing Greenland and called into question America's commitment to NATO’s mutual defense pact. “I think Article 5 is on life support,” said former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. Meanwhile, Dominic Grieve, a former Conservative Attorney General, declared, “For now the trans-Atlantic alliance is over.”

 

 

This attitude appeared to resonate inside the White House. Leaked text messages from senior Trump officials showed disdain for European partners. “I fully share your loathing of European freeloaders,” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote, adding, “PATHETIC.” At a summit in Munich, Vice President JD Vance declared the U.S. would no longer guarantee Europe’s security.

 

 

Nevertheless, Trump’s approach has yielded results. Only months ago, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to increase defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP. By the time of the most recent NATO summit, that had risen to 5%, now matched by other alliance members. “My sense is that most people in Trump's orbit think that unpredictability is a good thing, because it allows Donald Trump to leverage America's clout for maximum gain,” said Trubowitz.

 

Trump isn’t the first to use unpredictability as a diplomatic tool. In 1968, Nixon told his national security advisor to convince the North Vietnamese he was “crazy,” to force them into agreement. “That’s the madman theory,” says Professor Michael Desch of Notre Dame.

 

Yet this same unpredictability has created vulnerabilities. “It’s very hard to know what’s coming from day to day,” says Professor Julie Norman of University College London. She warns that the tactic could backfire, making the U.S. seem unreliable. “People won’t want to do business with the U.S. if they don’t trust the U.S. in negotiations,” she said.

 

Trump’s unpredictability has also failed to win over adversaries like Vladimir Putin or Iran. Though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was pressured into granting the U.S. access to valuable mineral rights, Putin remains unmoved. Trump recently lamented Putin’s refusal to end the war in Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, his strikes on Iran may push the Islamic Republic further toward acquiring nuclear weapons. “I think it’s now highly likely that Iran will make the decision to pursue a nuclear weapon,” says Desch. Mohsen Milani, professor at the University of South Florida, adds, “The exact opposite happened” from what the U.S. and Israel had hoped. “That was the Israeli and American calculation too… that Iran is going to surrender quickly or the whole system is going to collapse.”

 

As Trump’s strategy reshapes global alliances, Europe is beginning to reconsider its dependency on U.S. defense guarantees. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has urged Europe to become more operationally independent. “They're not going to snap back to the way they were before Trump took office,” says Trubowitz.

 

While European leaders may try to keep Trump onside through flattery and policy concessions—NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte once texted, “You will achieve something NO president in decades could get done”—the inherent instability remains. “Mr. Rutte, he's trying to embarrass you, sir. He's literally sitting on Air Force One laughing at you,” quipped former Trump aide Anthony Scaramucci.

 

Trump’s foreign policy may be built partly on strategy and partly on personality, but either way, it is working—at least on America’s allies. Whether it can reshape relations with enemies remains a far more uncertain proposition.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from BBC  2025-07-07