The US economic data coming in is not exactly rosy and it seems the chances of a Fed rate cut are slim. Now that businesses start passing on the tariffs to the consumer the prices are going to rise rapidly.

Tired of winning yet?

 

Consumer prices in August show a Fed rate cut isn’t an easy call.

https://archive.ph/10NKX#selection-543.0-543.65

 

"Businesses report that they’ve run through inventory they stockpiled before Mr. Trump’s tariff barrage and are starting to pass on their higher costs to customers. At the same time, Mr. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies are contributing to labor shortages, which may be pushing up wages and prices in industries like agriculture, construction and hospitality."
 

10 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

Consumer prices in August show a Fed rate cut isn’t an easy call.

https://archive.ph/10NKX#selection-543.0-543.65

 

"Businesses report that they’ve run through inventory they stockpiled before Mr. Trump’s tariff barrage and are starting to pass on their higher costs to customers. At the same time, Mr. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies are contributing to labor shortages, which may be pushing up wages and prices in industries like agriculture, construction and hospitality."

Yeah. This was all predicted wasn't it. Remember Trump said there would 'be some pain' - so here it comes. He still might get his rate cut though. With new hiring falling off a cliff over the last few months, there is an argument to lower interest rates. Even so, that doesn't mean investment or SMEs will pick up as a result. It's just one indicator of here and now.

The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. If it cuts interest rates, it will stoke inflation. Keeps them on hold, spending is reduced.

 

IMO the economic indicators of America are being frantically massaged. The core inflation rate is 3.1%.

 

Come on. A 50% tariff on imported aluminium and steel, variable tariffs on copper? The government is coming the raw prawn.

1 hour ago, ronnie50 said:

Yeah. This was all predicted wasn't it. Remember Trump said there would 'be some pain' - so here it comes. He still might get his rate cut though. With new hiring falling off a cliff over the last few months, there is an argument to lower interest rates. Even so, that doesn't mean investment or SMEs will pick up as a result. It's just one indicator of here and now.

Do you remember what Trump was saying before he said that might be some pain? Do I really need to remind you?

Yeah would be good to get 5% for the next couple of years. My pension is indexed.

10 hours ago, still kicking said:

You missed out on ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours/one week/one month.

 

It does seem to be a moving target.

On 9/12/2025 at 8:19 PM, ronnie50 said:

(...) He still might get his rate cut though. With new hiring falling off a cliff over the last few months, there is an argument to lower interest rates. Even so, that doesn't mean investment or SMEs will pick up as a result. It's just one indicator of here and now.

 

Some market participants seem to have calculated with a possible 0.5% rate cut, but with news of higher inflation it may just end up being a meager 0.25%.

Under normal circumstances, those figures would be enough cause for the FED to "pause" the interest rate cuts.

 

But then, the FED is under massive pressure by the administration/the economy in general, to cut rates further. Given this situation, the FED may have lost a good part of it's "independence" already.

 

The main task for the FED used to be to pursue the goal of price stability. These days, the FED must counteract any sort of economic recession as their main task. Recessions have basically been "outlawed/forbidden". With the help of the FED.

 

Globally, Central Banks are detaching themselves from the allmighty US$ by buying Gold at a record pace, plus working on a global concept to form a Global Basket of Currencies that eventually could replace the US$.

 

This will hinder the concept of "making America great again" massively.