According to the latest IMF projections, Thailand is set to experience the worst economic growth in ASEAN for 2025-2026, with growth estimates even lower than Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia, if you can believe that.

The article linked below highlights that Thailand’s economy is in a coma, a sentiment I’ve been echoing for the past two years. It further notes that Thailand will likely remain at the bottom of the ASEAN growth rankings until at least 2030. The article notes that the country’s real GDP for 2025 is probably closer to 1.8%, even further below the IMF's low estimate of 2%.

By 2030, Thailand is expected to drop from being the third-largest economy in ASEAN to the fifth-largest. That’s a major shift that can’t be ignored.

Thailand’s household debt is another major issue. The country ranks seventh globally for household debt as a percentage of GDP, at 88.2%. This is higher than places like Hong Kong (87.8%), Norway (87.4%), and Denmark (84.8%). However, those countries’ high debt levels are largely due to housing prices, where mortgages make up the bulk of household debt. In contrast, Thailand’s debt burden is much more widespread. 60% percent of Thai GDP is tied to non-mortgage debt. That’s a huge problem, especially considering the country’s high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs).

With an interest rate of 3%, Thailand needs 4.8% GDP growth to cover its loan obligations. If interest rates rise to 4%, the country would need 6.4% growth just to stay afloat. Realistically, Thailand is nowhere near achieving those growth figures, which makes the NPL crisis virtually unsolvable.

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has been covering up the true extent of this issue. Officially, NPLs in the private sector are reported to be at just 2.83%, but more likely NPLs are already above 20% in Thailand. So the BoT's number is very misleading. The much higher actual rates are being hidden through the restructuring of bad loans to make them appear as good loans. This practice has allowed the banks to delay acknowledging the problem, but the reality is that the Thai banking system has seen negative loan growth for 15 consecutive months. Essentially, the banks are running on fumes and so are their profits.

In my view, anyone who keeps all their assets in Thai banks, the Thai Baht, or the Thai financial system is playing a dangerous game of Russian roulette. Personally, I’ve never kept much in Thailand, and I’m currently spending down the remainder of my savings in Thailand as quickly as possible. I also have no plans to ever bring more money into the country in the future. There is just no point. To me, it’s all a house of cards with a stick of dynamite sitting underneath it.

Good luck to those who’ve bet everything on the Thai Baht. If the That Baht starts to falter, as other ASEAN countries take the economic lead over Thailand in the future, the Baht could then face a significant devaluation. And when that happens, it will be too late for anyone holding a large amount of assets based in Baht to switch out into other currencies as a hedge to minimize their currency devaluation losses.
 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/3128510/thailand-now-the-sick-man-of-asean

For the last few years it's noticeable the amount of business and factory closures in Pattaya area that i see whilst cycling, they can't compete with China

4 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

Thailand is now 'the ecomonic sick man of Asean' 

I see lots of sick looking guys on soi Buakhou. 

 

Poor genes or poor diet or both 

 

8 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

With an interest rate of 3%, Thailand needs 4.8% GDP growth to cover its loan obligations.

I don't really understand the detail of this comment. 

Current base rate is 1.5%.

Thailand bonds coupon yield less than 2% - https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-bond-yield

 

Individuals obviously borrow at a much higher rate and the prime lending rate is over 6% -

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/bank-lending-rate

 

Would have been nice if the author had been a little more specific about what exactly the 3% interest rate means and who's loan obligations he refers to?

 

 

7 hours ago, topt said:

I don't really understand the detail of this comment. 

Current base rate is 1.5%.

Thailand bonds coupon yield less than 2% - https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-bond-yield

 

Individuals obviously borrow at a much higher rate and the prime lending rate is over 6% -

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/bank-lending-rate

 

Would have been nice if the author had been a little more specific about what exactly the 3% interest rate means and who's loan obligations he refers to?

 

The 3% figure likely represents an average rate or a simplification of the overall interest rates faced by borrowers across the country. It may be attempting to account for debt servicing costs that include a mixture of government bonds, corporate debt, and household loans.

However, you're absolutely right to point out that this rate doesn’t fully reflect the actual rates that individual borrowers face, which are much higher. For example, if a person is borrowing at 6% or more, they would need a significantly higher GDP growth rate (more than the 4.8% suggested) just to keep up with debt obligations, let alone pay down the principal.

To your point, it would indeed be helpful if the author clarified exactly which loans or types of debt the 3% rate refers to. The actual interest rates faced by Thai individuals and businesses are higher than this, which means the real debt servicing burden might be even worse than the article suggests.

 

Happens when you do confusing tax increases. Entirely self-inflicted.

Just look at all the harassment for documents for a visa, for the extensions, all the forms that often are not properly translated or unavailable to do online, all the fuss the banks make for visas, the telecom companies, all the cheating agains foreigners, all the overcharging, the overpricing....and mainly all the corruption that often target foreigners on Police Road Blocks...and still they are asking why the money is not comming in ? 

 

As said by many before, the main spenders in Thailand are not the tourists. It's those who own property. Any condo owner or house owner should get a 5 month hassle free visa multiple entry plainly on showing the land lease contract or the condo purchase contract and nothing else. All the immigration fuss is destroying the economy but fine. The house owners will sell and go elsewhere for those who can. 

Now? They've been resting on their laurels for decades, while neighboring countries have been busy working on catching up.

On 10/31/2025 at 6:11 PM, SingAPorn said:

Just look at all the harassment for documents for a visa, for the extensions, all the forms that often are not properly translated or unavailable to do online, all the fuss the banks make for visas, the telecom companies, all the cheating agains foreigners, all the overcharging, the overpricing....and mainly all the corruption that often target foreigners on Police Road Blocks...and still they are asking why the money is not comming in ? 

Why are you here then?

It's all relative and I, up to now anyway, haven't had the issues you mention re Immigration - in fact that is possibly the least of my concerns over the last 12 years plus.......

 

On 10/31/2025 at 6:11 PM, SingAPorn said:

All the immigration fuss is destroying the economy but fine.

Please be a little more specific - what "fuss" exactly are you referring to?

On 10/31/2025 at 7:11 AM, SingAPorn said:

Just look at all the harassment for documents for a visa, for the extensions, all the forms that often are not properly translated or unavailable to do online, all the fuss the banks make for visas, the telecom companies, all the cheating agains foreigners, all the overcharging, the overpricing....and mainly all the corruption that often target foreigners on Police Road Blocks...and still they are asking why the money is not comming in ? 

 

As said by many before, the main spenders in Thailand are not the tourists. It's those who own property. Any condo owner or house owner should get a 5 month hassle free visa multiple entry plainly on showing the land lease contract or the condo purchase contract and nothing else. All the immigration fuss is destroying the economy but fine. The house owners will sell and go elsewhere for those who can. 

 

But you can't sell because the land doesn't belong to you.

 

Perhaps you should have informed yourself better instead of whining about visa handouts.