Asia faces growing risk as conflict threatens oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz

War in the Persian Gulf is sending shockwaves through global energy markets, raising fears of a new supply crisis as oil and natural gas shipments face disruption. The conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is already pushing prices higher and threatening fuel supplies to Asia, which relies heavily on imports transported through one of the world’s most critical maritime routes.

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At the centre of concern is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and global shipping routes. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass through the strait, making it one of the most strategically important chokepoints in the global energy system.

Energy consultancy Kpler estimates that about 13 million barrels of crude oil per day moved through the corridor in 2025. That represents nearly a third of all crude oil transported by sea worldwide. The strait also carries about 20% of global LNG exports, much of it destined for energy-hungry Asian economies.

War raises fears of supply disruption

Since the conflict escalated, concern over the safety of shipping in the region has intensified. Attacks on vessels and growing military activity have made insurers and shipping companies increasingly cautious, raising costs and increasing the risk of delays.

Even the possibility that the strait could be closed has unsettled markets. Analysts warn that any prolonged disruption would have immediate global consequences because there are few viable alternative routes for the enormous volume of fuel that passes through the waterway each day.

Oil prices have already surged. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has climbed about 15% since the war began, reaching roughly $84 per barrel — its highest level since mid-2024. Prices could rise further if hostilities escalate or if commercial shipping becomes significantly restricted.

The United States has said it may offer risk insurance to shipping companies and deploy naval forces to help protect vessels moving through the region, but uncertainty remains high.

Asia most exposed to the crisis

Asia is particularly vulnerable because many of its largest economies depend heavily on imported energy from the Middle East. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan rely on the region for a large share of their oil and gas supplies, while Southeast Asia’s growing economies are also exposed.

Japan imported around 2.34 million barrels of crude oil per day in January, according to its Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Around 95% of those imports came from the Middle East. Japan is also one of the world’s largest importers of LNG, making uninterrupted shipping routes essential.

South Korea faces similar risks. The Korea International Trade Association estimates that roughly 70% of its crude oil imports and about 20% of its LNG supplies come from Middle Eastern producers.

Taiwan also imports nearly all of its natural gas and oil. While the island has attempted to diversify its energy sources, around one-third of its LNG supply still comes from Qatar.

Although Japan and South Korea maintain significant emergency energy reserves, analysts say these stockpiles can only act as temporary buffers. Industries that depend heavily on energy — such as Taiwan’s semiconductor sector — remain vulnerable if disruptions continue for an extended period.

Developing economies face price pressure

Developing countries across Southeast Asia face an additional challenge. When supplies tighten, wealthier nations can outbid poorer economies for available cargoes, leaving smaller markets struggling to secure fuel.

Similar dynamics were seen during the global energy shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when competition for shipments drove prices sharply higher.

Governments across the region are already taking precautionary steps. In Singapore, officials have warned businesses and households to prepare for higher energy costs.

In the Philippines, authorities have restricted non-essential travel using government vehicles to reduce fuel consumption.

Thailand has urged citizens to conserve energy as fuel prices rise. Officials say domestic petroleum reserves could last up to 61 days while the country works to increase natural gas production from fields in the Gulf of Thailand and neighbouring Myanmar.

Rising costs ripple through economies

For workers who rely on fuel to earn a living, however, cutting consumption is not always possible. Taxi driver Sommit Sutar in the northern Thai city of Chiang Rai said rising gasoline prices are already affecting his livelihood.

“Gasoline was already expensive,” he said. “This war will make the problem even worse.”

Analysts say the biggest immediate threat may not be outright shortages but the ripple effects of rising prices. Higher fuel costs can push up transportation expenses, increase food prices and contribute to broader inflation across economies.

Energy experts say governments are now preparing for multiple scenarios — hoping the conflict does not further disrupt supplies, while bracing for the possibility that the crisis could deepen if fighting in the region continues.

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  Adapted by ASEAN Now · Source · 05.03 2026

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Asia should stop trade with US/israel.

Well according to the Don and recent reports it should not take long for Iran to come to the negotiating table

where he will want to be involved in who runs Iran next

Just another example of the inflation president raising prices worldwide. He promised during his campaign that he would lower prices for the average American, but they've only gone up, and now he seems to be inflicting his personal brand of terror upon the planet.

Big Pharma prices have gone up, grocery prices have gone up, housing is still unaffordable, Medical care ridiculously unaffordable, Healthcare insurance has gone up dramatically, and now the price of fuel is skyrocketing due to a completely unnecessary war of choice.

Everything Trump touches turns to crap, the man is an utter failure on every level, and by any metric he should be given an F grade.

2 hours ago, FlorC said:

Asia should stop trade with US/israel.

Everyone should.

@RasiMike @FlorC any other idiotic ideas you want to share ...

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

@RasiMike @FlorC any other idiotic ideas you want to share ...

4 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

@RasiMike @FlorC any other idiotic ideas you want to share ...

The number of supporters of these two corrupt regimes is shrinking. I'm all for the trend to continue.

7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

@RasiMike @FlorC any other idiotic ideas you want to share ...

LOL That is nothing but AI generated rubbish, the current state is nothing is going through the straits

Reuters

Maps and charts of the Iran crisis

The United States and Israel launched their most ambitious attacks on Iran in decades.

Commercial shipping can not get insurance so they will not ship through there the US is not escorting anything through there

The link provided is from Reuters 13 hours ago

1 minute ago, howerde said:

The link provided is from Reuters 13 hours ago

It's a war zone now. Of course insurance won't cover anything. It's a clause in all insurance policies.

Who do think keeps the shipping lanes open and safe when not an active war zone ? Surely you're not that ignorant.

11 minutes ago, RasiMike said:

The number of supporters of these two corrupt regimes is shrinking. I'm all for the trend to continue.

So you support the oppressive govt of Iran, the killing of 1000s of protesters, and the supplying of arms to terrorist groups and oppressive gov't ... got it,

3 hours ago, FlorC said:

Asia should stop trade with US/israel.

Why?

Iran is attacking its neighbors now, after they were all very nice to it. Iran's true character is on display.

How about Asia should reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

The Asian countries are free to escort the oil tankers.

Iran's launch of missiles and drones has quickly fallen off. IT is now 25% fewer than on day 1. The USA and Israel have removed the Iranian airforce threat, its navy and a large number of missiles and their launch sites. Soon the drone dens will be reduced.

7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

So you support the oppressive govt of Iran, the killing of 1000s of protesters, and the supplying of arms to terrorist groups and oppressive gov't ... got it,

Does that meant that you wouldn't support US too? I see similarities in US in this current regime.

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

So you support the oppressive govt of Iran, the killing of 1000s of protesters, and the supplying of arms to terrorist groups and oppressive gov't ... got it,

9 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

So you support the oppressive govt of Iran, the killing of 1000s of protesters, and the supplying of arms to terrorist groups and oppressive gov't ... got it,

Sad that there's so many that only have two options - their way or the highway.

No, I don't support killing anybody, unless they're coming to my place, with intentions of hurting me and/or mine. Then I reckon they're best off dead.

17 minutes ago, RasiMike said:

Sad that there's so many that only have two options - their way or the highway.

No, I don't support killing anybody, unless they're coming to my place, with intentions of hurting me and/or mine. Then I reckon they're best off dead.

If you're an infidel, then sooner or later, your time will come under Sharia Law. Without USA & ally intervention, it will be the universal religion outside China, and maybe Russia.

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

If you're an infidel, then sooner or later, your time will come under Sharia Law. Without USA & ally intervention, it will be the universal religion outside China, and maybe Russia.

Thanks, I can now consider myself informed.

5 hours ago, FlorC said:

Asia should stop trade with US/israel.

Haha. Its the other way around. Stop trade with any muslim country.

The sooner the world gets off oil the sooner these muslims can go back to loving their camels. It is long overdue to permanently take away

the control of the Hormuz straight away from Iran so they can never hold the world hostage.

3 minutes ago, koolkarl said:

The sooner the world gets off oil the sooner these muslims can go back to loving their camels. It is long overdue to permanently take away

the control of the Hormuz straight away from Iran so they can never hold the world hostage.

Drill Baby Drill.

3 hours ago, RasiMike said:

6 hours ago, FlorC said:

Asia should stop trade with US/israel.

Everyone should.

Ah yes - good idea.... Just tell “Asia” that... that tiny, totally uniform area of only a few dozen countries, billions of people, competing alliances, nuclear powers, and the world’s most complex supply chains - to simply stop trading with the US and Israel. Problem solved...

Clearly decades of geopolitical tension, regional security architecture, energy dependencies, and global logistics networks can all be neatly overridden by a one-line slogan typed between breakfast and a midday shuftie. No need to think about shipping lanes, semiconductor supply chains, defence agreements, energy markets, or the slightly awkward issue of Iranian nuclear enrichment and the regional power balance that keeps half the Middle East from detonating every Tuesday.

It’s the kind of beautifully dumbed-down take that only works if you ignore literally everything that makes the world function - trade flows, economic interdependence, national security obligations, and the basic responsibility governments have to protect their populations and maintain stability. But sure, let’s pretend the global economy is a light switch and geopolitics is a group chat where you can just announce “everyone stop trading” and the planet nods in agreement. That dumbed-down oversimplified level of thinking isn’t analysis - it’s a bumper-sticker on the back of a beaten up truck driven by a half-wit.

19 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Ah yes - good idea.... Just tell “Asia” that... that tiny, totally uniform area of only a few dozen countries, billions of people, competing alliances, nuclear powers, and the world’s most complex supply chains - to simply stop trading with the US and Israel. Problem solved...

Clearly decades of geopolitical tension, regional security architecture, energy dependencies, and global logistics networks can all be neatly overridden by a one-line slogan typed between breakfast and a midday shuftie. No need to think about shipping lanes, semiconductor supply chains, defence agreements, energy markets, or the slightly awkward issue of Iranian nuclear enrichment and the regional power balance that keeps half the Middle East from detonating every Tuesday.

It’s the kind of beautifully dumbed-down take that only works if you ignore literally everything that makes the world function - trade flows, economic interdependence, national security obligations, and the basic responsibility governments have to protect their populations and maintain stability. But sure, let’s pretend the global economy is a light switch and geopolitics is a group chat where you can just announce “everyone stop trading” and the planet nods in agreement. That dumbed-down oversimplified level of thinking isn’t analysis - it’s a bumper-sticker on the back of a beaten up truck driven by a half-wit.

Informed again, thank you.

44 minutes ago, koolkarl said:

The sooner the world gets off oil the sooner these muslims can go back to loving their camels. It is long overdue to permanently take away

the control of the Hormuz straight away from Iran so they can never hold the world hostage.

Valid point - The Strait of Hormuz is strategic due to the energy (Oil and LNG) that flows through it - without that the global significance of the Strait shrinks dramatically.

It would still matter for the Gulf countries and regional naval dynamics, but it would no longer be a Global pressure point capable of impacting the entire global economy. Instead it becomes a regional strategic chokepoint - not a global economic nerve centre - its still a major 'trade' route for supply to all GCC's.

Even in a world that no longer depended on oil or gas, Iran obtaining nuclear weapons would still be a major global security issue because it would fundamentally shift the military and political balance in the Middle East. Iran is a predominantly Shiite power, while much of the surrounding region - including countries like Saudi Arabia and many Gulf states - is largely Sunni, and the rivalry between Sunni and Shiite blocs already shapes regional alliances, proxy conflicts, and security policies. A nuclear-armed Iran would therefore not just be about weapons capability, but about regional dominance and deterrence in a deeply divided strategic landscape, particularly given Iran’s long-standing hostility toward Israel and its missile capabilities. Even without hydrocarbons driving global attention to the region, nuclear weapons in that context could trigger an arms race, escalate sectarian and geopolitical competition, and significantly increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict across the Middle East.

Why would the rest of the world care ?... it would still matter for security reasons rather than energy reasons. Even without hydrocarbons dominating global economics, nuclear proliferation and the possibility of nuclear conflict would remain a matter of international security, alliance commitments, and global stability - which is why nuclear weapons anywhere tend to become a concern everywhere.

It could be argued North Korea has Nukes... but that does bother a lot of countries, but the reason it doesn’t dominate global discussion every day is because the situation around North Korea is relatively contained geographically and strategically.

North Korea having nuclear weapons primarily threatens its immediate neighbours - especially South Korea and Japan - and by extension the United States because of defence treaties. The region has settled into a tense but stable deterrence structure where everyone understands the consequences of escalation. North Korea also tends to behave in a very predictable way strategically - it uses nuclear capability mainly as regime survival insurance, not as a tool to expand regional influence or lead ideological blocs - so there's a difference.

A nuclear-armed Iran would potentially be different because the Middle East already has multiple competing powers, sectarian divisions (Sunni vs Shiite), active proxy conflicts, and direct hostility toward Israel. In that environment, nuclear capability could trigger other countries - such as Saudi Arabia or Turkey - to pursue their own nuclear deterrents, creating a multi-state nuclear balance in a region that already experiences frequent military confrontation.

So... While oil has amplified the strategic importance of the Middle East, but the region’s volatility did not begin with oil and would not disappear without it. But, the impact over the rest of the world would be far less - outside the region the impact would be small - it could be argued the world would not care.

So - Getting rid of oil is a simple answer - but - the world is not ready for that yet. Modern economies still depend heavily on hydrocarbons for transport, industry, petrochemicals, aviation, shipping, and electricity, much of which flows through places like the Strait of Hormuz from producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar. Transitioning away from that system requires massive changes in infrastructure, technology, and global supply chains, which takes decades.

So while “just get rid of oil” sounds simple and in a very simplified summary is true, the reality is that the global economy, energy systems, and transportation networks are still deeply tied to it - we can't just get rid our oil dependence - not yet anyway.

3 hours ago, RasiMike said:

Sad that there's so many that only have two options - their way or the highway.

No, I don't support killing anybody, unless they're coming to my place, with intentions of hurting me and/or mine. Then I reckon they're best off dead.

But isn't that the problem?

They are coming to all the western countries with the intent to kill all non-muslims.

A point of note.

There’s no renewable energy being held up in the Strait of Hormuz

Russia is the big winner in this. China comes in at second place. It all makes sense, why Trump was trying to finish this Russian war a year ago until now. The Ukrainians are a big inconvenience.

1 minute ago, 1tooth said:

The Ukrainians are a big inconvenience.

Who are they an inconvenience to?

Russia, USA or both?

7 hours ago, KhunLA said:

If you're an infidel, then sooner or later, your time will come under Sharia Law. Without USA & ally intervention, it will be the universal religion outside China, and maybe Russia.

Your argument assumes that Islam universally follows Sharia Law — does evidence actually support that premise.

Well then it's time to lift the sanctions against Russia and get back in buying that dead cheap russian oil and gas. No other issue. Europe anyhow is destroying it's economy in maintaining those absurd sanctions put in place by Biden. Trump is foolishly maintaining them. Europe is even more foolishly listening to America. Let's hope the other major powers of the world like India, China or Asia in general don't fall for it.

Typical USA: "To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil"

Trump hands Putin billions through new oil deal

Who do you think you are that you have any say in this.

13 hours ago, BritManToo said:

But isn't that the problem?

They are coming to all the western countries with the intent to kill all non-muslims.

That may be the case, but there's little point in worrying too much about it as some do.