Dollar/baht Don't Read Unless You Have A Interest

[ray23]

That may actually be plan C. B is in front of them now and no one seems very happy about it. It may not pass ain't over yet.

[lannarebirth]

I would only echo the quote of that great technical anayst Carl Swenlin, by saying, " Don't think, LOOK! "

LOOK at WHAT LRB?

At the chart of course. In my case futures, not Forex:

Euro weekly:

Closeup View:

By my standards the Euro did not meet the criteria for moving higher presently, by failing to make a weekly close above it's broken trendline. As you can see the market tends to respect these lines.

That could all change tomorrow, but I wait for the market to tell me when it's changed.

[VegasVic]

And it does appear that global markets are all very dismissive of the American bail out plan and that USD may well be headed for retreat, yet again - I think it might be time to implement Plan B.

CM, It looks like the Dollar got stronger As deflation rears its ugly head around the globe, oil will plumett and the Dollar will continue to strengthen. Remember it was uncle Vic who told everyone here to short oil and go long the Dollar earlier this summer

[chiang mai]

And it does appear that global markets are all very dismissive of the American bail out plan and that USD may well be headed for retreat, yet again - I think it might be time to implement Plan B.

CM, It looks like the Dollar got stronger As deflation rears its ugly head around the globe, oil will plumett and the Dollar will continue to strengthen. Remember it was uncle Vic who told everyone here to short oil and go long the Dollar earlier this summer

Hm, I thought the same thing also and you and I did in fact agree on this at one point. But later, whilst watching the trends of GBP/USD during the "bad bank" debate it seemed clear to me that if that bill had past then USD would go the other way - simply too much debt on the books and I reckon USD would have headed South. This morning I'm surprised to see the bill did not pass and USD has started to strengthen as a result. The key for me will be the shape and form of subsequent bail out package. Also, I don't see yet that deflation has started to spread globally since most central banks still seem to be engaged in the fight against inflation. Finally, I reckon a good part of the fall in GBP yesterday was more a result of the Bradford & Bingley bail out plan and other related events in the UK and Europe.

But don't worry, I will always continue to listen to Uncle Vic

Edited September 30, 2008 by chiang mai

[ray23]

Are we finally seeing the tip of the Ice Berg in Thailand? My believe gentlemen as to the baht exchange rate the real relief will be from here, not the west.

"(BangkokPost.com) - The financial liquidity of Thailand could tighten, should the private sector start to raise more funds in the country amidst the global financial crises, according to the Bank of Thailand deputy governor Bandit Nijthaworn.

Mr Bandit said Thailand’s liquidity in the financial system is still sufficient, but if Thai businesses decide to borrow more money in the country, the liquidity situation could be tighter, adding that the country’s credit has increased considerably because of less borrowing costs locally when compared with international financial institutes.

However, the central bank deputy governor believed commercial banks in Thailand have prepared measures to deal with tight liquidity.

due partly to less borrowing costs locally compared with borrowing from international markets."

[chiang mai]

Are we finally seeing the tip of the Ice Berg in Thailand? My believe gentlemen as to the baht exchange rate the real relief will be from here, not the west.

"(BangkokPost.com) - The financial liquidity of Thailand could tighten, should the private sector start to raise more funds in the country amidst the global financial crises, according to the Bank of Thailand deputy governor Bandit Nijthaworn.

Mr Bandit said Thailand’s liquidity in the financial system is still sufficient, but if Thai businesses decide to borrow more money in the country, the liquidity situation could be tighter, adding that the country’s credit has increased considerably because of less borrowing costs locally when compared with international financial institutes.

However, the central bank deputy governor believed commercial banks in Thailand have prepared measures to deal with tight liquidity.

due partly to less borrowing costs locally compared with borrowing from international markets."

I don't know is the answer but how sad that a governor of the Central Bank should have the name Bandit or are they trying to tell us something!

[Naam]

And it does appear that global markets are all very dismissive of the American bail out plan and that USD may well be headed for retreat, yet again - I think it might be time to implement Plan B.

CM, It looks like the Dollar got stronger As deflation rears its ugly head around the globe, oil will plumett and the Dollar will continue to strengthen. Remember it was uncle Vic who told everyone here to short oil and go long the Dollar earlier this summer

please forgive me Uncle Vic but i confess to the horrible crime that only a short time ago i converted all my remaining cash Dollars into Euros @ 1.43565 and placed an order to increase my holding of Bunds if the Dollar strengthens more, so be it. but the share of 19% i still hold is more than sufficient in my [not so] humble view.

as far as deflation is concerned you are -as you Americans say- "right on the money". i was recently in Germany were everything is deflating like héll. also, my wife tells me that whenever she goes shopping she wonders why food prices (and of course everything else) in Thailand is dropping like a stone

[Naam]

OK, the predictions are that it is true the Baht is supposed to hit 45 December, then as the world sees better options than the USD, the USD will weaken (comparatively)...

♪♪♪ trf 33.79 / cash 33.51

[ray23]

Namm is that in line with the basket of currency policy, or is Thailand selling dollars again. Per the Thai news tonight they have 100 billion of them to use in any way they deem fit.

If that is the case this may not be the best time to taking your nest egg and play the game. But it's not my money. Dollar up I make money Baht up I make money.

Based on recent artilces they are staying self sufficient at the moment and lending within the country. However, rates are to high to make it attractive to borrow funds outside the country.

Since this is not goign to go away next week wouldn't it be more prudent hold the cash option?

Not over till it's over, I would not venture to guess where it will be, depends on how much it is manipulated and way to many unknowns

[Naam]

Naam is that in line with the basket of currency policy, or is Thailand selling dollars again. Per the Thai news tonight they have 100 billion of them to use in any way they deem fit.

If that is the case this may not be the best time to taking your nest egg and play the game. But it's not my money. Dollar up I make money Baht up I make money.

Based on recent artilces they are staying self sufficient at the moment and lending within the country. However, rates are to high to make it attractive to borrow funds outside the country.

Since this is not goign to go away next week wouldn't it be more prudent hold the cash option?

Not over till it's over, I would not venture to guess where it will be, depends on how much it is manipulated and way to many unknowns

it can't be "basket of currencies" Ray as the Dollar is stronger vs. all major currencies. as the Baht is since some days stronger against the Dollar the only logical conclusion is intervention by the Bank of Thailand.

[ray23]

Ya that is what I think as well. If they donlt their image get in the way I beleive they can ride this out.

But waht I see at the moment they are more worried about their image then reality. They had a member of the Minority party on for about 20 Mins tonight. They gave his actual title but for the life of Me I can't remember it. Anyway this was the subject hey were discussing and the effect it would have on Thailand.

They didn't discuss the tourist sector at all but they did speak about the effects on exports and his believe was that it would eb effected.

I still remember all the dicussions that the rising baht would harm the sector and in some ways it did. We experienced a hug rise in exports only a few months ago. But when yuo really look at it. A lot of it was cars, exported for resale in foriegn contries. That is wonderful but gross numbers to don't a show the real profits. some of those profits obivously were not retained by Thailand and went to the countries of car manufactures.

What did that really represent to income to thailand who knows, but it certainly does result in inflated income figures.

That baht stays high so does Thailand exports to the end consumer. I could see why inflation might cause them to this. But when that dollar went up, oil dropped $10.00 a barrel There was drop in commodites including food costs.

So infaltion was not a part of the picture today. What is the advantage to them I just don't see it?

[cloudhopper]

... as the Baht is since some days stronger against the Dollar the only logical conclusion is intervention by the Bank of Thailand.

But why, I also wonder? It appears that central banks everywhere are colluding to prop up the dollar...maybe the BOT is getting rid of their $ while the ridding is good and the effect on the THB is only an unwanted side effect of their solution to a much bigger looming problem - the crash of the USD?

[Naam]

... as the Baht is since some days stronger against the Dollar the only logical conclusion is intervention by the Bank of Thailand.

But why, I also wonder? It appears that central banks everywhere are colluding to prop up the dollar...maybe the BOT is getting rid of their $ while the ridding is good and the effect on the THB is only an unwanted side effect of their solution to a much bigger looming problem - the crash of the USD?

my best guess is that the BOT is walking a fine line. propping up the Baht to a certain extent (to prevent excessive inflation based on necessary imports) and not letting the Baht get too strong (because it would hurt exports).

[ray23]

Thanks Namm very logical.

Sir as to the dollar crashing you may be very right. But, you will be much better off if it doesn't. What we have seen in his last week would look like childs play in comparison. This decoupling that was being presented a year ago, is obviously not true.

The world economy is interconnected what effects one will sooner or later effect the others.

[toptuan]

What an absurd thread title. Don't get your panties in a bunch--I never open a thread unless I have interest in it.

Except this one.

[Naam]

Thanks Namm very logical.

Sir as to the dollar crashing you may be very right. But, you will be much better off if it doesn't. What we have seen in his last week would look like childs play in comparison. This decoupling that was being presented a year ago, is obviously not true.

The world economy is interconnected what effects one will sooner or later effect the others.

i never mentioned anything about the Dollar crashing Ray and leave forecasting the future to the many prophets we have worldwide as well as in this forum i converted most of my cash Dollars into Euros but for different reasons than expecting a USD crash. i also stated how i "disposed off' the Euros i bought, but to avoid that some clown comes up and accuses me that i am "flaunting my wealth" i did not explain my action.

[ray23]

Sorry Naam should have been more specific, I was referring to the post above yours my apologies.

It looks like everything is set for a yes vote tomorrow on the bail out tomorrow. One thing is use certainly mixed views on it. Seem to be sold a meccessary evil. I have no idea how it is going to effect the dollar baht exchange rate.

Definetly entering uncharted waters.

[VegasVic]

Thanks Namm very logical.

Sir as to the dollar crashing you may be very right. But, you will be much better off if it doesn't. What we have seen in his last week would look like childs play in comparison. This decoupling that was being presented a year ago, is obviously not true.

The world economy is interconnected what effects one will sooner or later effect the others.

i never mentioned anything about the Dollar crashing Ray and leave forecasting the future to the many prophets we have worldwide as well as in this forum i converted most of my cash Dollars into Euros but for different reasons than expecting a USD crash. i also stated how i "disposed off' the Euros i bought, but to avoid that some clown comes up and accuses me that i am "flaunting my wealth" i did not explain my action.

Naam, I am sorry to hear that you converted Dollars to Euros recently The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days, it just went below $1.40 a few minutes ago! We are on the verge of major interst rate cuts by the E.U. central banks here very shortly and the Euro will be doing very well in this environment if it is able to remain above $1.30/Dollar at years end! You might want to seriously rethink holding on to those Euros my friend GLTY!

[VegasVic]

Sorry Naam should have been more specific, I was referring to the post above yours my apologies.

It looks like everything is set for a yes vote tomorrow on the bail out tomorrow. One thing is use certainly mixed views on it. Seem to be sold a meccessary evil. I have no idea how it is going to effect the dollar baht exchange rate.

Definetly entering uncharted waters.

Ray, there is no need to apologise, it was very clear to anyone following this thread that you were responding to cloudhopper

[PCA]

Naam, I am sorry to hear that you converted Dollars to Euros recently The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days, it just went below $1.40 a few minutes ago! We are on the verge of major interst rate cuts by the E.U. central banks here very shortly and the Euro will be doing very well in this environment if it is able to remain above $1.30/Dollar at years end! You might want to seriously rethink holding on to those Euros my friend GLTY!

Well Vic nothing is clear yet and we are just retesting the longterm uptrend line for the second time I showed you in another thread. Admittedly I didnt expect that to happen and the next important thing here is where we close the current month. If above that line you have bad cards in hand and below you most likely win. Nevertheless a drop from 1.46 to 1.40 is roughly 4% and not 11.

[lannarebirth]

Naam, I am sorry to hear that you converted Dollars to Euros recently The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days, it just went below $1.40 a few minutes ago! We are on the verge of major interst rate cuts by the E.U. central banks here very shortly and the Euro will be doing very well in this environment if it is able to remain above $1.30/Dollar at years end! You might want to seriously rethink holding on to those Euros my friend GLTY!

Well Vic nothing is clear yet and we are just retesting the longterm uptrend line for the second time I showed you in another thread. Admittedly I didnt expect that to happen and the next important thing here is where we close the current month. If above that line you have bad cards in hand and below you most likely win. Nevertheless a drop from 1.46 to 1.40 is roughly 4% and not 11.

It is interesting PCA, that you had a small open gap in your chart that the Euro's recent rally did fill. It's always interesting to me how different methodologies so often produce similar results.

[PCA]

Naam, I am sorry to hear that you converted Dollars to Euros recently The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days, it just went below $1.40 a few minutes ago! We are on the verge of major interst rate cuts by the E.U. central banks here very shortly and the Euro will be doing very well in this environment if it is able to remain above $1.30/Dollar at years end! You might want to seriously rethink holding on to those Euros my friend GLTY!

Well Vic nothing is clear yet and we are just retesting the longterm uptrend line for the second time I showed you in another thread. Admittedly I didnt expect that to happen and the next important thing here is where we close the current month. If above that line you have bad cards in hand and below you most likely win. Nevertheless a drop from 1.46 to 1.40 is roughly 4% and not 11.

It is interesting PCA, that you had a small open gap in your chart that the Euro's recent rally did fill. It's always interesting to me how different methodologies so often produce similar results.

yeah and I am sure that there are many methodologies working very well. You just gotta work out those who you are comfortable with and specialise there, rest is proper trade- and money management.Cheers

[Naam]

Thanks Namm very logical.

Sir as to the dollar crashing you may be very right. But, you will be much better off if it doesn't. What we have seen in his last week would look like childs play in comparison. This decoupling that was being presented a year ago, is obviously not true.

The world economy is interconnected what effects one will sooner or later effect the others.

i never mentioned anything about the Dollar crashing Ray and leave forecasting the future to the many prophets we have worldwide as well as in this forum i converted most of my cash Dollars into Euros but for different reasons than expecting a USD crash. i also stated how i "disposed off' the Euros i bought, but to avoid that some clown comes up and accuses me that i am "flaunting my wealth" i did not explain my action.

Naam, I am sorry to hear that you converted Dollars to Euros recently The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days, it just went below $1.40 a few minutes ago! We are on the verge of major interst rate cuts by the E.U. central banks here very shortly and the Euro will be doing very well in this environment if it is able to remain above $1.30/Dollar at years end! You might want to seriously rethink holding on to those Euros my friend GLTY!

"The Euro is down over 11% (vs. the Dollar) in the last 4 trading days" = plain rubbish Vic or is it perhaps "Vegas Maths" that the difference between 1.4358 and presently 1.39726 is 11%? your maths/arithmetic teacher is going to have a fit looking at your 11%

i had and still have valid reasons converting cash Dollars into Euros and if i miss some profits i don't mind. people buy car or hurricane insurance and pay a premium to be protected. if they don't cause accidents or their home was not destroyed did they lose something? only with Euros i can by "bunds" kept in the Bundesbank and which is (in my not so humble opinion) THE safe haven nowadays. presently i even have doubts whether my bonds are safe with Clearstream, Cedel or any other clearing agency.

[Naam]

Sorry Naam should have been more specific, I was referring to the post above yours my apologies.

It looks like everything is set for a yes vote tomorrow on the bail out tomorrow. One thing is use certainly mixed views on it. Seem to be sold a meccessary evil. I have no idea how it is going to effect the dollar baht exchange rate.

Definetly entering uncharted waters.

i am hoping for a "yes" vote tomorrow Ray because that might give me a window to dispose the last batch of my volatile assets with (hopefully) moderate losses which i am quite willing to accept. sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. the only thing important is that we win more often and of course win more value than we lose!

p.s. i think the bail-out in the U.S. and all other global plans to get rid of the crisis will only be temporary. for a long time to come investors with cash or liquid and stable assets will have excellent chances to take their picks.

[flying]

i am hoping for a "yes" vote tomorrow Ray because that might give me a window to dispose the last batch of my volatile assets with (hopefully) moderate losses which i am quite willing to accept. sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. the only thing important is that we win more often and of course win more value than we lose!

p.s. i think the bail-out in the U.S. and all other global plans to get rid of the crisis will only be temporary. for a long time to come investors with cash or liquid and stable assets will have excellent chances to take their picks.

The idiots just passed it in Senate 74-25

I guess now it goes to the house?

Edited October 2, 2008 by flying

[Naam]

i am hoping for a "yes" vote tomorrow Ray because that might give me a window to dispose the last batch of my volatile assets with (hopefully) moderate losses which i am quite willing to accept. sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. the only thing important is that we win more often and of course win more value than we lose!

p.s. i think the bail-out in the U.S. and all other global plans to get rid of the crisis will only be temporary. for a long time to come investors with cash or liquid and stable assets will have excellent chances to take their picks.

The idiots just passed it in Senate 74-25 I guess now it goes to the house?

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't it normally the other way round?

[flying]

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't it normally the other way round?

I am no political expert but I think your right.

In this case it goes now to the house of reps with instructions from both Obama & McCain to SIGN THE PAPER

Passed in Senate

PS: I never count on Wiki for accuracy but this may help

Wiki explains Legislation

Edited October 2, 2008 by flying

[ray23]

Your absolutely correct Naam, what happened is they attached it to another bill, to get a vote today. So it is really now an ammendment to another bill. The other vote is scheduled for Friday.

Dollar seemed to move a lot today agianst most currencies, but not the baht.

My ATM transaction today at Bank of Bangkok resulted, in 33.89 less then then my last transaction about the same time from last month.

It is impossilble to really tell what kind of exchange rate or where it is going with what we deal with today.

Yuor right might be a good window of Oportunity, no gurantees what will happen Frdiay , the next group voting had a look at the original bill and didn't like it. Has it been changed enough to make them happy, guess we will find out Friday.

[LaoPo]

...... for a long time to come investors with cash or liquid and stable assets will have excellent chances to take their picks.

HE took some -very large- picks already....

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, speaks during an interview in New York, June 25, 2008.

Buffett Uses Credit Crunch to Take Cheap Stakes in GE, Goldman ...but in a Chinese (9.9%/$ 232 Million) and Japanese (71.5%/ 1 Billion) company as well.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[flying]

HE took some -very large- picks already....

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, speaks during an interview in New York, June 25, 2008.

Now see there is a bailout plan I agree with !

Why cant we just continue along those types of lines?