Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

If i am wrong i still have the other 50%.

Was that physical you sold?

I am surprised only because I tended to see it opposite & thought folks who did not have physical may want to get in during this pullback which I expect to continue till the end of the week.

But good luck to all

what are your reasons Flying? why end of this week? will the semi-bankrupt EU-countries declare full bankruptcy friday evening thus causing a global gold rush on monday? my view is that Ireland alone should have pushed gold up 5%, not to talk about Greece, Portugal and Spain.

and why would anybody try to catch a falling knife and buy during an ongoing pull-back? because a zillion amateur investors (such as Mrs Naam) are following the nonsensical method of "averaging"?

Edited November 17, 2010 by Naam

[lannarebirth]

i too expect gold to drop more. reason: down 6% in USD terms inspite of increased global risk aversion (look at the markets).

Plus, it never tested its breakout near 950. Doesn't have to as it is in a bubble, but should if it expects to move higher in a sustained way.

LRB, no matter how hard i try (and i have tried for years) i could never understand the underlying logic of arguments like these.

I think it is to do with testing the resolve of the bottom feeders. You can think of it just as well as an "observed phenomenon". Doesn't have to retest of course but the it would be lacking substantial price support, which is one characteristic of a bubble. Unless it goes parabolic, which I wouldn't expect, I'd look for a move to the 34 w ema to start.

[Khun Jean]

If i am wrong i still have the other 50%.

Was that physical you sold?

Is there any other kind? :)

[Khun Jean]

i too expect gold to drop more. reason: down 6% in USD terms inspite of increased global risk aversion (look at the markets).

Plus, it never tested its breakout near 950. Doesn't have to as it is in a bubble, but should if it expects to move higher in a sustained way.

LRB, no matter how hard i try (and i have tried for years) i could never understand the underlying logic of arguments like these.

I think it is to do with testing the resolve of the bottom feeders. You can think of it just as well as an "observed phenomenon". Doesn't have to retest of course but the it would be lacking substantial price support, which is one characteristic of a bubble. Unless it goes parabolic, which I wouldn't expect, I'd look for a move to the 34 w ema to start.

In USD every commodity looks like a bubble. How would that graph look like in bht, euro, yuan, Aussie dollars...

[lannarebirth]

Plus, it never tested its breakout near 950. Doesn't have to as it is in a bubble, but should if it expects to move higher in a sustained way.

LRB, no matter how hard i try (and i have tried for years) i could never understand the underlying logic of arguments like these.

I think it is to do with testing the resolve of the bottom feeders. You can think of it just as well as an "observed phenomenon". Doesn't have to retest of course but the it would be lacking substantial price support, which is one characteristic of a bubble. Unless it goes parabolic, which I wouldn't expect, I'd look for a move to the 34 w ema to start.

In USD every commodity looks like a bubble. How would that graph look like in bht, euro, yuan, Aussie dollars...

I don't claim it is a bubble because of its price but because of the behaviour of its price.

[Khun Jean]

I don't claim it is a bubble because of its price but because of the behaviour of its price.

Bubbles are always difficult to see, But i really meant that the behaviour of the gold price has more to do with the movement of the USD then of gold itself. Gold/Oil Gold/Wheat Gold/Yuan etc.. is another method to see if gold is near a top or bottom.

[flying]

Is there any other kind? :)

well no

Not for me anyway & I remembered you were the same.

chok dee

[flying]

what are your reasons Flying? why end of this week?

Well not mine actually.

As you know my premise is long range & physical only. Not based on what others say but on what I see in my reality.

But I like to watch the cycle guys & the tech/chartists too actually.

But only in the same way as I like to read my horoscope at the end of a day.

Just interesting curious to see.

Anyway.........

[badge]

Most commods are priced in $ for hedging/trading purposes.

What other crncy should they be priced in, CNY?(see above)

[badge]

Perhaps LB would be kind enough to offer a multi-decade graph with SSEC, XHB, spot AU, spot AG, NIKK, NDX, WTIC, CRB, and we'll see if theres any similarities to be observed.

[churchill]

I think it is very difficult to trade gold through charts / it often seems to be on the verge of breaking up or down / It has moved up very fast and is now testing down to ? perhaps 1320 or 1300 but it is very difficult to time unless one is a trader / I agree with Flying that we might correct down for a week or so but then there is a risk of an upside explosion - and unless one is in you are going to miss it / This happened to me as Gold broke over $1000 - I sold out looking at charts and missed a big up leg - better to take a longer view if you can afford to IMO /

For the momment I still think with Euro Problems and longer term problems with the USD / Inflation on the horizon ( I thought I saw food price inflation in China at 16% ? )that gold is a good place to be / With gold it seems that sentiment changes very quickly from positive to negative / Sell on positive sentiment and buy on negative if you want to trade ?

And what is going on with bonds ? "Bond Mkt Implosion & Gold Tactics"

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_111610.html

[churchill]

and the Indians and Chinese seem as keen as ever

India's gold demand up a mammoth 28%

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/indias-gold-demand-up-a-mammoth-28/712515/

China has potential to raise gold reserve for safety of foreign exchange reserve: Experts

http://business.globaltimes.cn/china-economy/2010-11/592945.html

[churchill]

i too expect gold to drop more. reason: down 6% in USD terms inspite of increased global risk aversion (look at the markets).

Plus, it never tested its breakout near 950. Doesn't have to as it is in a bubble, but should if it expects to move higher in a sustained way.

LRB, no matter how hard i try (and i have tried for years) i could never understand the underlying logic of arguments like these.

I think it is to do with testing the resolve of the bottom feeders. You can think of it just as well as an "observed phenomenon". Doesn't have to retest of course but the it would be lacking substantial price support, which is one characteristic of a bubble. Unless it goes parabolic, which I wouldn't expect, I'd look for a move to the 34 w ema to start.

As I am invested in GDXJ is this an 'Island Reversal' on GDXJ? as you were discussing on another thread / and how low would you expect it to go ?

Thanks in advance

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81490379313

[churchill]

Soros: conditions 'pretty perfect' for gold

http://www.miningmx.com/news/gold_and_silver/Soros-conditions-pretty-perfect-for-gold.htm

[lannarebirth]

Plus, it never tested its breakout near 950. Doesn't have to as it is in a bubble, but should if it expects to move higher in a sustained way.

LRB, no matter how hard i try (and i have tried for years) i could never understand the underlying logic of arguments like these.

I think it is to do with testing the resolve of the bottom feeders. You can think of it just as well as an "observed phenomenon". Doesn't have to retest of course but the it would be lacking substantial price support, which is one characteristic of a bubble. Unless it goes parabolic, which I wouldn't expect, I'd look for a move to the 34 w ema to start.

As I am invested in GDXJ is this an 'Island Reversal' on GDXJ? as you were discussing on another thread / and how low would you expect it to go ?

Thanks in advance

http://stockcharts.c...id=p81490379313

Technically, yes. Check out that volume!

[Naam]

India's gold demand up a mammoth 28%

based on 2009 when gold demand was a mammoth percentage down.

[crusader79]

note to myself (for the umpteenth time): "do not discuss financial matters with poor boys or ignorants."

I've made the same vow about loudmouths but some are difficult to ignore. I'm sure you know the type.

Edited November 17, 2010 by crusader79

[churchill]

A French view which seems quite probable

Gold prices to average $1,425/oz in 2011: Societe Generale

Washington (Platts)--18Nov2010/553 am EST/1053 GMT

Gold prices will likely average $1,425/oz next year, but begin to taper off as the US Federal Reserve ends its quantitative easing policy and interest rates begin to rise, analysts with French investment bank Societe Generale said earlier this week.

"The US policy response to short-term deflationary pressure in the form of the recently announced QE-2 [second round of quantitative easing] has heightened long-term inflation concerns, which in our view should in turn drive gold prices to new highs," analysts said in a report.

Judging from historical patterns, however, prices are likely to start easing as the QE-2 policy ends by the end of the second quarter next year, and interest rates begin to rise, bank analysts said.

Similar trading patterns in gold were seen in 1979, when prices entered a period of sustained acceleration, interspersed with modest corrections.

"We believe gold prices are entering a similar phase now, pointing to a peak in 2011. We believe an end to QE in general, with the expectation of central bank interest rates rising potentially sometime in 2012, could trigger a reversal in the gold price trend," SocGen analysts said.

... http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/8196083

[flying]

what are your reasons Flying? why end of this week?

Well as said it was not my reason but a cycle turn date of Nov 18th.

Like I also said I do not change my holdings based on it but like to watch/track them to see if they are correct.

This one seems to be doing pretty good today the 18th here.

[Naam]

what are your reasons Flying? why end of this week?

Well as said it was not my reason but a cycle turn date of Nov 18th.

Like I also said I do not change my holdings based on it but like to watch/track them to see if they are correct.

This one seems to be doing pretty good today the 18th here.

i don't see a cycle. i see the dollar weakening 1.5% which pushed up gold by 1.5% in dollar terms.

[flying]

i don't see a cycle. i see the dollar weakening 1.5% which pushed up gold by 1.5% in dollar terms.

yes I think they ...cycle types.... do not claim to know what will be the cause of the change in cycles. Perhaps It is not relevant to them?

Anyway like I said I view it as entertainment.....like horoscopes.

Lets see how this one does....I think he also said it would continue its rise till 12/9 & could even see 1500/oz usd

Lets see how he does

Edited November 18, 2010 by flying

[cloudhopper]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-what-could-trip-gold

[flying]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-what-could-trip-gold

Good read but I dont think the outlawing of gold is possible.

Back when it was gold was our money & as such the govt called it in.

These days it is free & they could no more call it in than diamonds or pearls.

[Naam]

These days it is free

gooood morning Flying! it seems you have not [yet] learned the lesson which is being taught since Lehman. governments, especially yours, can do anything they please.

[flying]

These days it is free

gooood morning Flying! it seems you have not [yet] learned the lesson which is being taught since Lehman. governments, especially yours, can do anything they please.

:lol: sheeple could always be herded

[midas]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-what-could-trip-gold

Good read but I dont think the outlawing of gold is possible.

Back when it was gold was our money & as such the govt called it in.

These days it is free & they could no more call it in than diamonds or pearls.

i will only really be worried if they outlaw rice !

Up 11% from this year’s low in July

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/rice-prices-may-extend-rally-as-floods-cut-harvest-20-in-biggest-exporter.html

but this is the real shocker !

Corn prices have surged more than 70% since May

http://moneymorning.com/2010/10/27/corn-prices-3/

Edited November 19, 2010 by midas

[Khun Jean]

http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ back to prices as in 1950.

Many more items priced in gold. Gives a other perspective then everything priced in USD.

[flying]

i will only really be worried if they outlaw rice !

Up 11% from this year’s low in July

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/rice-prices-may-extend-rally-as-floods-cut-harvest-20-in-biggest-exporter.html

but this is the real shocker !

Corn prices have surged more than 70% since May

http://moneymorning.com/2010/10/27/corn-prices-3/

I was just watching some interesting news on wheat today too.

food & energy might be the place to be.

Edited November 19, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ back to prices as in 1950.

Many more items priced in gold. Gives a other perspective then everything priced in USD.

very informative!

[flying]

http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/ back to prices as in 1950.

Many more items priced in gold. Gives a other perspective then everything priced in USD.

very informative!

Yeah I like this one