Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

I was starting to wonder if everyone on this forum had died.

did you expect the usual drum rolls after gold lost nearly 200 dollars?

[Paulo1]

I was starting to wonder if everyone on this forum had died.

did you expect the usual drum rolls after gold lost nearly 200 dollars?

So many opinions. just trade the trade. Or wait for 1500 zone to set longs, Its really that simple.

LOL, well maybe not. Its quite sad. emotional paragraphs , one after the other. HMMM

Edited August 25, 2011 by Paulo1

[edgarfriendly]

i sell, it keeps goin up...

i buy, it keeps goin down...

i think im doin it wrong

ef

[flying]

Gold rose $400/oz in 2 months

Gold is now down a little over $100/oz if that since the $1876

closing price of 8/23/11 & folks are freaking out.

Puleeze

Relaaaaaax if your in physical

If your a trader...what did you expect?

You have seen the same for months & months each & every month

As I said last week some months worse than others.

What has fundamentally changed other than the usual monthly beat down

at options expiration & a couple added hits for margin increases?

Which were obviously leaked the day before. Everyone should know by now

yet they still act shocked.

Which of the reasons that gold has been rising for years has changed?

Nada...Zip..Zero

Disclaimer: all IMHO

I dont trade paper...

Edited August 25, 2011 by flying

[farang000999]

Everyone rushing into gold? It is the complete opposite. American demand for gold jewelry is declining. Americans are taking their gold down to the corner "We Buy Gold" shop. The only thing you hear on American business stations is that gold is a bubble.

As long as we are living in an inflationary environment where stocks are going up but unemployment remains the same, with significantly negative real interest rates, gold will go up. The US govs goal apparently is to debase the currency. They are going to attempt to do so without it losing control sort of how they lowered interest rates and created the internet stock and housing bubbles even though they thought they could step in at the right moment.

Where gold finally lands imo will rest on the eventual transition from the USD as a reserve currency. Or maybe China will simply forgive all US debt or keep buying 3% 30 year bonds for the rest of eternity.

But... short term it is a shit sandwich and gold will keep going up. There is just too much money that has to be put somewhere and nobody wants to put it in cash.

[farang000999]

i don't see any reason to buy .9999 in thailand instead of the local gold.

[Naam]

i don't see any reason to buy .9999 in thailand instead of the local gold.

different people have different reasons.

[Naam]

I was starting to wonder if everyone on this forum had died.

did you expect the usual drum rolls after gold lost nearly 200 dollars?

So many opinions. just trade the trade. Or wait for 1500 zone to set longs, Its really that simple.

LOL, well maybe not. Its quite sad. emotional paragraphs , one after the other. HMMM

some of us are not traders Paulo.

[farang000999]

i don't see any reason to buy .9999 in thailand instead of the local gold.

different people have different reasons.

such as?

[Naam]

i don't see any reason to buy .9999 in thailand instead of the local gold.

different people have different reasons.

such as?

moving the gold to another country where Thai gold 96.5 is not easily or not acceptable at all.

[edgarfriendly]

such as?

as previously posted... European gold assayers wont/dont accept 96.5% 23 carat gold...

its either 22 OR 24 and it aint 24.

so u get 22 carat value for 23 carat purity.

pretty good reason to buy 999 if u ask me.

persoanlly im into 96.5 at the mo for ease of transactions.

but saying that, the local gold shops are like cattle markets at the moment, u need to get a queue number and wait 3-4+ hours to do buy/sell.

it was so hectic yesterday, the manager asked me to come and sit in the back office.

quite shabby actually, but i did get my gold. and then got home to see it had dropped another 550 bt..

but its up 750 this morning. Dunno if i can face the shop today, u cats mouse clicking ur way to millions seem to know what ur doin!

ef

[Lost in LOS]

simple, you buy gold in the country where you are going to keep it.

I am going to buy more physical today if they have it

[farang000999]

i'm not in thailand at the moment are the gold shops that wild these days? what % of customers are buying vs selling in ur experience?

[Naam]

but saying that, the local gold shops are like cattle markets at the moment, u need to get a queue number and wait 3-4+ hours to do buy/sell.

30 minutes ago i must have passed half a dozen gold shops in downtown Pattaya but did not see any queue.

[Naam]

simple, you buy gold in the country where you are going to keep it.

I am going to buy more physical today if they have it

i beg to differ and claim that one should buy gold in any country if and when the price is to one's liking. we have bought gold in various countries but had no intentions to leave it there. some countries, like Singapore, charge a value-added-tax on gold if you don't export it.

and whatever 999.9 gold we bought in Thailand is stored out of the country.

Edited August 26, 2011 by Naam

[flying]

and whatever 999.9 gold we bought in Thailand is stored out of the country.

I still think the idea of a brick or two used in the floor of the pool was a good idea

[midas]

simple, you buy gold in the country where you are going to keep it.

I am going to buy more physical today if they have it

i beg to differ and claim that one should buy gold in any country if and when the price is to one's liking. we have bought gold in various countries but had no intentions to leave it there. some countries, like Singapore, charge a value-added-tax on gold if you don't export it.

and whatever 999.9 gold we bought in Thailand is stored out of the country.

what about this comment ?

" Phoning in from Sao Paulo, Brazil, investment guru Marc Faber was a guest on CNBC last week, once again telling the unvarnished truth about the state of the world economy and bankrupt western nations.

This time, Faber had a very clear message: that everyone should own *physical* gold… and what’s more, they should store it outside of the United States"

His hosts couldn’t believe it. -NOT- store in the United States, the bastion of freedom and security??!?! What lunacy!

CNBC: “Uh, so do you thus not trust US banks or US custodians? Do you think they might fail or abscond with the gold?”

Guffaws and incredulous snickers emerge from the hosts.

Faber: “I don’t trust anyone.”

Uncomfortable silence.

http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/marc-faber-gold

[flying]

This time, Faber had a very clear message: that everyone should own *physical* gold… and what’s more, they should store it outside of the United States"

His hosts couldn’t believe it. -NOT- store in the United States, the bastion of freedom and security??!?! What lunacy!

CNBC: “Uh, so do you thus not trust US banks or US custodians? Do you think they might fail or abscond with the gold?”

Guffaws and incredulous snickers emerge from the hosts.

Faber: “I don’t trust anyone.”

I think his comments are two fold

As to the US I think he & many others think back to the Gold Confiscation Of April 5, 1933

But at that time gold was government minted backing for their currency.

Section 2. All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933

I also know that many did not in fact turn it in. But I do not think the US government could

ever pull the same stunt. It is no longer their currency to call in.

As for the second part " I don't trust anyone"

It is a widely held belief with physical metals that If You Don't Hold It You Don't Own It

To that end no so called safe storage facility world wide would be trusted.

My bet is Faber has a personal vault or two

Edited August 26, 2011 by flying

[Lost in LOS]

This time, Faber had a very clear message: that everyone should own *physical* gold… and what’s more, they should store it outside of the United States"

His hosts couldn’t believe it. -NOT- store in the United States, the bastion of freedom and security??!?! What lunacy!

CNBC: “Uh, so do you thus not trust US banks or US custodians? Do you think they might fail or abscond with the gold?”

Guffaws and incredulous snickers emerge from the hosts.

Faber: “I don’t trust anyone.”

I think his comments are two fold

As to the US I think he & many others think back to the Gold Confiscation Of April 5, 1933

But at that time gold was government minted backing for their currency.

Section 2. All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, to a Federal Reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or before April 28, 1933

I also know that many did not in fact turn it in. But I do not think the US government could

ever pull the same stunt. It is no longer their currency to call in.

As for the second part " I don't trust anyone"

It is a widely held belief with physical metals that If You Don't Hold It You Don't Own It

To that end no so called safe storage facility world wide would be trusted.

My bet is Faber has a personal vault or two

and I understand they would be able to go into your safety deposit box if they wanted.

I saw that interview with Farber and the part I liked best is, they asked about where he lives and he said mostly on a plane, but when on land, he prefers Northern Thailand. So maybe we need to find it and dig around his yard

[mjnaus]

but saying that, the local gold shops are like cattle markets at the moment, u need to get a queue number and wait 3-4+ hours to do buy/sell.

30 minutes ago i must have passed half a dozen gold shops in downtown Pattaya but did not see any queue.

Perhaps demand in Pataya is not that high. We were just at our favorite gold trader in downtown Hatyai and had to wait about an hour or so before we could purchase (they didn't even have enough bullion in stock at the moment, gave us a certificate instead which can trade in in about three weeks). Before that we were checking out a different trader with less clientele, and he showed us a newspaper with on the frontpage a store in Chinatown BKK were there must have been at least some 100 people waiting in line outside the store...

[12DrinkMore]

and I understand they would be able to go into your safety deposit box if they wanted.

UK safety deposits are not police proof.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/lifestyle/article-23939717-operation-rize.do

And if the police can't find anything criminal , then the contents are turned over to the tax collector so he can have a slice of the action..

Innocent until proven guilty, in the UK only up to 1,000 quid

Under the Proceeds of Crime Act of 2002 (known as POCA), valuables and cash above £1,000 are presumed by the police to be the proceeds of crime, unless you can prove otherwise,

But to keep it all legit on TV, here's clearly another of the Farang criminal types.

The box belonging to 49-year-old Yuri Harris, who had previous convictions for stealing lug-gage at Gatwick and Heathrow airports and in Switzerland, contained £101,176.76 made up of sterling, dollars, yen, Swiss francs and Thai baht. As he'd never paid any tax, his cash was taken by the state in lieu.

I didn't realise that the taxman can also tax the proceeds of crime.

And that the UK police operate exactly the same way as our BIB's.

Interestingly, the Met is allowed to keep between 18 per cent and 50 per cent of the cash it seizes, depending on the circumstances. 'It's how the Met are going to pay for the policing of the Olympics,' claims another lawyer.

Life is full of little revelations.

[Naam]

I saw that interview with Farber and the part I liked best is, they asked about where he lives and he said mostly on a plane, but when on land, he prefers Northern Thailand. So maybe we need to find it and dig around his yard.

Faber lives in Chiang Mai, off Lamphun Road.

[edgarfriendly]

but saying that, the local gold shops are like cattle markets at the moment, u need to get a queue number and wait 3-4+ hours to do buy/sell.

30 minutes ago i must have passed half a dozen gold shops in downtown Pattaya but did not see any queue.

Perhaps demand in Pataya is not that high. We were just at our favorite gold trader in downtown Hatyai and had to wait about an hour or so before we could purchase (they didn't even have enough bullion in stock at the moment, gave us a certificate instead which can trade in in about three weeks). Before that we were checking out a different trader with less clientele, and he showed us a newspaper with on the frontpage a store in Chinatown BKK were there must have been at least some 100 people waiting in line outside the store...

Agreed, bkk has been chocka-block at 10am, a full hour before the stores even open, and theres literally 4-500 chinese gold buyers/sellers, aching to get a queue number, even though that doesnt guarantee they'll get to or even want to trade. Running to get in line!!

a lotta ppl getting the 2-3 week certificates, a lotta ppl turning up with signed cheques with exact amounts on, only to find the price has adjusted before the place has opened or gettin served....

i saw a number of ppl queue up and get 2-3-4 queue numbers, and then leave after changing their minds about trading, none wanted to give up their numbers tho?? bizzarre!!

its chaos. i'm not sure why i was invited backstage, but the sofa was nice enough..

saw a few 3 milion baht trades, mostly10 & 25 baht pieces moving, and honestly i reckon the buy/sell ratio was about 50/50.

and as i said, a lotta ppl were just making a day of it. very communal. not many thais though, the police/guards are thai.

waffle waffle...

ef

[farang000999]

i will be selling all my paper gold at 1790-1800/oz and buying it back at 1750/oz, backing the truck up at 1700. i don't think we can get to 1900 again with out more margin calls and declines.

[farang000999]

wrt the long term outlook of gold, unless the central banks around the world are buying gold in secrecy, i see no reason to believe that gold will be remonetized or used as a reference point. when you see these headlines of so and so buying 25- 100 tons of gold, it is still a very minimal amount compared to their paper dollar reserve holdings. it borders on irrelevancy considering just how much gold is mined annually.

[flying]

i see no reason to believe that gold will be remonetized or used as a reference point.

Actually folks like myself the holders of physical have always said we hope they never do.

We prefer Free Gold

Free to seek its true value in the open market of demand.

That is what drives the price today not the thought that the governments may once again try to control its price

& make it illegal for citizens to hold.

[farang000999]

yes but if there is no demand from the world governments that is like opening a gogo bar in jomtien and saying "we aren't interested in customers over the age of 40"

[gregb]

yes but if there is no demand from the world governments that is like opening a gogo bar in jomtien and saying "we aren't interested in customers over the age of 40"

Agreed. I buy gold today because I believe it is an impartial reference across currencies, but also because I fully expect it will eventually be used to partially back a new SDR reserve currency.

If an SDR reserve currency is introduced without gold backing and proves itself to be stable for an extended period, I would expect the value of gold to fall on the open market. People are buying gold today because everyone believes it is money. Should a "better" money come along, it will be dropped like an unwanted stepchild.

I don't expect that to happen, but it would be unreasonable not to consider that it might. Whether or not gold is used to back currency is hugely important when it comes time to determine its value.

[Naam]

yes but if there is no demand from the world governments that is like opening a gogo bar in jomtien and saying "we aren't interested in customers over the age of 40"

Agreed. I buy gold today because I believe it is an impartial reference across currencies, but also because I fully expect it will eventually be used to partially back a new SDR reserve currency.

If an SDR reserve currency is introduced without gold backing and proves itself to be stable for an extended period, I would expect the value of gold to fall on the open market. People are buying gold today because everyone believes it is money. Should a "better" money come along, it will be dropped like an unwanted stepchild.

I don't expect that to happen, but it would be unreasonable not to consider that it might. Whether or not gold is used to back currency is hugely important when it comes time to determine its value.

what would be the gain? whether fully or partially backed the possibilties are open for cheating. i refer to Flying's suspicion that the U.S. gold reserves have not been audited since more than half a century. who will be able to check the amount of gold backing held in Fort Knox or some vaults in Zürich, London or Hong Kong?

[gregb]

yes but if there is no demand from the world governments that is like opening a gogo bar in jomtien and saying "we aren't interested in customers over the age of 40"

Agreed. I buy gold today because I believe it is an impartial reference across currencies, but also because I fully expect it will eventually be used to partially back a new SDR reserve currency.

If an SDR reserve currency is introduced without gold backing and proves itself to be stable for an extended period, I would expect the value of gold to fall on the open market. People are buying gold today because everyone believes it is money. Should a "better" money come along, it will be dropped like an unwanted stepchild.

I don't expect that to happen, but it would be unreasonable not to consider that it might. Whether or not gold is used to back currency is hugely important when it comes time to determine its value.

what would be the gain? whether fully or partially backed the possibilties are open for cheating. i refer to Flying's suspicion that the U.S. gold reserves have not been audited since more than half a century. who will be able to check the amount of gold backing held in Fort Knox or some vaults in Zürich, London or Hong Kong?

What is the gain for the CHF doing it? Confidence from the people using it is all. It will be hard to get that kind of trust any other way in the present environment. You are correct that the IMF and the BIS will still be able to cheat, and that is why I expect that an SDR reserve currency will eventually fail just as all the existing currencies. But at the same time I expect a reprieve of a decade or two before this kind of corruption becomes apparent.

In the end, people will believe the SDR lie because it is in everyone's best interest to believe the lie. It could happen without gold, but I think gold is going to be included in the basket because it makes the SDR currency a more compelling story.