Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[cookstar]

just recieved this in an email from a currency exchange website:

"Sterling has hit a 4 month high of €1.14/£1 inter bank [the rate at which banks trade with each other in millions of pounds] against the Euro after strong UK economic data continues to impress and concerns over European sovereign debt grow.

The UK last week saw a better than expected 6% growth in retail sales for December, a 0.1% increase in exports, a 0.4% rise in manufacturing production, better than expected house price rises and a key member of the Bank of England stating in an interview that the UK had exited recession and it was time to ease back on emergency funding. Furthermore, data out today is expected to show that UK inflation has jumped the most in 12 years in December. The Euro zone meanwhile has seen a worse than expected growth from Germany and serious concerns over Greece’s ability to repay its debt."

looks promising hopefully the uk economy is now coming out of recession and the pound is finally starting to strenthen again, i hope so as will be moving back to LOS in March. i can only hope!

[MJP]

There is to be a 'pause' in QE.

Let's see what happens when they stop printing and buying their own bonds to 'finance' the fantasy economy. I think they have created a 'black swan generator' . . . if you read Taleb.

Bond strike anyone? Followed by a currency collapse?

Who knows these days.

[thaimate]

My brother who owns a company exporting to many countries and having offices on 3 continents ,reckons in about 2 years the pound will be stronger,he loves the weak pound as it helps exports .

[cookstar]

yes obviously it helps people who are earning there money in thai baht or are currently exporting from uk, but i do feel sorry for all expat retirees on a pension living in Thailand and people who rely on money from a uk bank account to live in LOS, it really must be hard now with the crap exchange rate and the rising prices in Thailand.

for my own personal interests i hope it doesn't take 2 years for the pound to strenghten again i have already put off moving back to LOS since the exchange rate dropped in october 08. i would be happy at least if it rose to about 60 baht to the pound in the not too distant future, but at this point nobody can really tell what will happen.

[chiang mai]

It would be nice if it were to strengthen and stay that way, but the election remains the wild card. The markets reckon there's a number of possible scenario's that could develop and the impact on the Pound will be different in each case, the very worst scenario is a hung Parliament which will likely cause a run on the Pound and Sovereign Debt, bad news all round. But the other options are not nearly so bad, unfortunately at present we're in an almost funny war scenario with the pre election posturing so it's hard to guess what the outcome might be. One thing is absolutely for certain however and that is that the current upwards path is by no means guaranteed and it could quite easily reverse in an ugly fashion, at very short notice.

[cmsally]

I think it may have gone up on the Cadbury deal and maybe also the Republican win in a local election in USA driving the dollar down a bit.

I wouldn't hold your breath for the pound in the near future.

[londonthai]

"last week saw a better than expected 6% growth in retail sales for December, a 0.1% increase in exports, a 0.4% rise in manufacturing production, better than expected house price rises"

maybe expectations for sales were low or prices were slashed lower than usual (in fact sales in the uk started a week or two before the boxing day in many shops).

now, increase .1% in export and .4% in production is very little - soon to be reversed, because the pound go up slighly

[tmwke]

There is to be a 'pause' in QE.

Let's see what happens when they stop printing and buying their own bonds to 'finance' the fantasy economy. I think they have created a 'black swan generator' . . . if you read Taleb.

Bond strike anyone? Followed by a currency collapse?

Who knows these days.

I am afraid to say you are correct. the UK economy has been built on sand since that traitor M Thatcher and her stooge Kieth Joseph sold the crown jewels, and the USA is not far behind !

[jackinbkk]

Personally I'm just amazed by all this.

1. Inflation is a good thing??? Since when? This is the destruction of your savings, purchasing power etc through the over supply of money and subsequent rise in prices. This is only good for currency speculators as it may mean interest rates have to rise and the pound will strengthen through increased demand.

2. House prices. Just dont get me started. UK house prices are still over valued. You can only get the money out if you find someone willing to pay you x amount for it. House prices are rising from speculation and estate agents. Not fundamentals. The house prices seen over the past 5 years have been a symptom of the bubble that just burst.

Britain cannot be supported on house prices. Unemployment and debt is a major concern...

[cookstar]

To the above poster jackinbkk, i must say i have to agree with you wholeheartedly the soaring house prices have been ridiculous over the past 7-8 years and that bubble as you have said did well and truly burst taking the economy down with it, is there then a link to a false overvalued economy and a strong pound? as was pre recession?

the rich have and always will remain getting richer, and unfortunetly if you are poor, you know the rest......

Edited January 20, 2010 by cookstar

[SantiSuk]

£ against the baht seems to have been stuck in an unusually tight band around 52 baht to the pound for several months, notwithstanding the £ having strengthened against the $ and euro

Edited January 21, 2010 by SantiSuk

[chiang mai]

I think the next big question must be whether folks still holding Pounds should continue to do so or whether, in light of the election outcome risks, it's smarter to diversify (more) now. I would guess that a part of the psychology suggests that having already taken a 30% cut in its value that it might be best to simply hold on to Pounds and hope that inflation/interest rates come to its aid - another part might be that the risk of a bad outcome at election time (hung Parliament etc) could cause a further substantial loss in value. Most reports that I have read suggest the GBP will continue to strengthen against EUR and that GBP/THB will continue to weaken, but of course that doesn't factor in the election factor which has the potential to accelerate both sets of movements, red or black anyone!

[jesimps]

{/quote}

I am afraid to say you are correct. the UK economy has been built on sand since that traitor M Thatcher and her stooge Kieth Joseph sold the crown jewels, and the USA is not far behind !

Wrong! It was G. Brown Esq who sold off the crown jewels when he was chancellor ie our gold reserves; and at a give away price. Add to that the fact that Labour always manage to make a mess of the economy each time they come to power, it's no surprise to find UK in its present plight. Anyone remember the "Winter of discontent"?

Sorry, I know it's off-topic, but I had to respond to the post in quotes.

[MJP]

I am afraid to say you are correct. the UK economy has been built on sand since that traitor M Thatcher and her stooge Kieth Joseph sold the crown jewels, and the USA is not far behind !

Wrong! It was G. Brown Esq who sold off the crown jewels when he was chancellor ie our gold reserves; and at a give away price. Add to that the fact that Labour always manage to make a mess of the economy each time they come to power, it's no surprise to find UK in its present plight. Anyone remember the "Winter of discontent"?

Sorry, I know it's off-topic, but I had to respond to the post in quotes.

Maybe it wasn't gold after all. Pinch of salt with this article mind, but it's possible . . .

http://www.daily.pk/fake-gold-bars-in-bank...ort-knox-14477/

[thaimate]

God i wish Britain had another Maggie Thatcher to save Britain after the numptys that have been in charge this last 12 years.

[churchill]

Pound starting to weaken

Pound Declines Against Majors; Hits 8-day Low Against U.S. Dollar

http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id...5668&SMap=1

[chiang mai]

See what happens, now you've really done it, I for one will prefer if the OP and Mervyn King will refrain from talking about any rises in Sterling value because as sure as eggs is eggs, the second they do, it starts to fall.

[MJP]

God i wish Britain had another Maggie Thatcher to save Britain after the numptys that have been in charge this last 12 years.

In fairness to those not pro-Thatcher, the seed for the current mess was sown with Parkinson's 'Big Bang', deregulation of the City. Blair/Brown couldn't help themselves (sorry, Blair did and still helps himself) with further loosening of financial regulation, which has resulted in a boom with similarities to that of the 1920's credit boom.

Makes you wonder if Brown's 'light touch' regulation was actually 'where it started' rather than 'it began in America'. I remember London overtaking New York as the worlds financial capital around the middle of the boom.

There's no doubt I think the British are ultimately facing an 'Iceland'. 1976, history is repeating. Surely, at some point (post GE?) this house of cards collapses and the IMF . . . you get the idea.

[cmsally]

See what happens, now you've really done it, I for one will prefer if the OP and Mervyn King will refrain from talking about any rises in Sterling value because as sure as eggs is eggs, the second they do, it starts to fall.

Oops there you go the chocolate (Cadburys) melted.

Sterling falls - Reuters

Actually it all comes back to that dirty word "deficit"!

[MJP]

See what happens, now you've really done it, I for one will prefer if the OP and Mervyn King will refrain from talking about any rises in Sterling value because as sure as eggs is eggs, the second they do, it starts to fall.

Oops there you go the chocolate (Cadburys) melted.

Sterling falls - Reuters

Actually it all comes back to that dirty word "deficit"!

This hung parliament thing is a real possibility looking at the polls. Seems to be one of the big risks for the Pound.

Play about with the 'swing-o-meter' on this Daily Telegraph page, reckons there needs to be a swing greater than 6% to the Tories to avoid a hung parliament.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...itical-map.html

[MJP]

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8472229.stm

[mommysboy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen against over priced currencies such as the Euro or Faht. But no reason otherwise and in fact every reason for it to continue being held down- UK is cleaning up at present. As a patriot, long may it continue. As someone living in Thailand, well you just have to get on with it, and remind yourself that in the long term an appreciation is a certainty.

[MJP]

I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen against over priced currencies such as the Euro or Faht. But no reason otherwise and in fact every reason for it to continue being held down- UK is cleaning up at present. As a patriot, long may it continue. As someone living in Thailand, well you just have to get on with it, and remind yourself that in the long term an appreciation is a certainty.

Ummmm . . . cleaning what up? Deficits are getting worse, no real cuts in government spending and they're still printing! MPC just voted 9-0 to keep QE going.

As a patriot I'm appalled at how this charade is continued for the political ends of the Labour government.

[chiang mai]

I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen against over priced currencies such as the Euro or Faht. But no reason otherwise and in fact every reason for it to continue being held down- UK is cleaning up at present. As a patriot, long may it continue. As someone living in Thailand, well you just have to get on with it, and remind yourself that in the long term an appreciation is a certainty.

Ummmm . . . cleaning what up? Deficits are getting worse, no real cuts in government spending and they're still printing! MPC just voted 9-0 to keep QE going.

As a patriot I'm appalled at how this charade is continued for the political ends of the Labour government.

It's no use trying MJP, logic doesn't work on this guy and fact is equally useless, spare your self the aggravation. But yes you're right, the charade is very sad and we can only hope it all comes to a climax, either way, soon so that we can start rebuilding.

[mommysboy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen against over priced currencies such as the Euro or Faht. But no reason otherwise and in fact every reason for it to continue being held down- UK is cleaning up at present. As a patriot, long may it continue. As someone living in Thailand, well you just have to get on with it, and remind yourself that in the long term an appreciation is a certainty.

Ummmm . . . cleaning what up? Deficits are getting worse, no real cuts in government spending and they're still printing! MPC just voted 9-0 to keep QE going.

As a patriot I'm appalled at how this charade is continued for the political ends of the Labour government.

It's no use trying MJP, logic doesn't work on this guy and fact is equally useless, spare your self the aggravation. But yes you're right, the charade is very sad and we can only hope it all comes to a climax, either way, soon so that we can start rebuilding.

Whatever! Clearly the pound is being held down by design, and QE kills 2 maybe 3 birds with one stone. I prefer to concentrate on the positive and once again UK has been shown to be streets ahead in dealing with this world crisis- yes world crisis.

The other logic is so what! UK got dumped on very badly why care too much? Strikes me if you owe a lot of money the one with the big worry is the one that lent it. Just look at Iceland, couldn't give a toss and what can the UK do about it.

I made some great money pre CHristmas from Blighty, and Wil move back in a couple of years hopefully. Land of hope and glory and all tat.

The UK is clearly on rebuild and if it is so heavily in debt then at least much of that money went on decent infrastructure. Turning an economy around takes a couple of years to show, just like turning a tanker.

[MJP]

I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen against over priced currencies such as the Euro or Faht. But no reason otherwise and in fact every reason for it to continue being held down- UK is cleaning up at present. As a patriot, long may it continue. As someone living in Thailand, well you just have to get on with it, and remind yourself that in the long term an appreciation is a certainty.

Ummmm . . . cleaning what up? Deficits are getting worse, no real cuts in government spending and they're still printing! MPC just voted 9-0 to keep QE going.

As a patriot I'm appalled at how this charade is continued for the political ends of the Labour government.

It's no use trying MJP, logic doesn't work on this guy and fact is equally useless, spare your self the aggravation. But yes you're right, the charade is very sad and we can only hope it all comes to a climax, either way, soon so that we can start rebuilding.

Whatever! Clearly the pound is being held down by design, and QE kills 2 maybe 3 birds with one stone. I prefer to concentrate on the positive and once again UK has been shown to be streets ahead in dealing with this world crisis- yes world crisis.

The other logic is so what! UK got dumped on very badly why care too much? Strikes me if you owe a lot of money the one with the big worry is the one that lent it. Just look at Iceland, couldn't give a toss and what can the UK do about it.

I made some great money pre CHristmas from Blighty, and Wil move back in a couple of years hopefully. Land of hope and glory and all tat.

The UK is clearly on rebuild and if it is so heavily in debt then at least much of that money went on decent infrastructure. Turning an economy around takes a couple of years to show, just like turning a tanker.

No it didn't.

It went on a housing and consumer spending bubble.

Land of hope and glory and all tat . . . is pretty much spot on.

[chiang mai]

What and where is the evidence that the UK is clearly on the rebuild, markets are getting ready to whip the UK because there is no evidence and no restructuring plan, you live in a world of your own MB and seem to make up "facts" of your own as and when they suit you, it's one thing to be patriotic but yet another to be plain stupid.

[MJP]

I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen against over priced currencies such as the Euro or Faht. But no reason otherwise and in fact every reason for it to continue being held down- UK is cleaning up at present. As a patriot, long may it continue. As someone living in Thailand, well you just have to get on with it, and remind yourself that in the long term an appreciation is a certainty.

Ummmm . . . cleaning what up? Deficits are getting worse, no real cuts in government spending and they're still printing! MPC just voted 9-0 to keep QE going.

As a patriot I'm appalled at how this charade is continued for the political ends of the Labour government.

It's no use trying MJP, logic doesn't work on this guy and fact is equally useless, spare your self the aggravation. But yes you're right, the charade is very sad and we can only hope it all comes to a climax, either way, soon so that we can start rebuilding.

Easy for Labour (I'm no fan of any of them to be honest) to buy votes with these peoples kids' future incomes.

It's not aggravation . . . it's terrifying.

[Thongkorn]

What and where is the evidence that the UK is clearly on the rebuild, markets are getting ready to whip the UK because there is no evidence and no restructuring plan, you live in a world of your own MB and seem to make up "facts" of your own as and when they suit you, it's one thing to be patriotic but yet another to be plain stupid.

Manufacturing Up , Crime Down, Unemployment on the down, Run on the FT SE ,products made abroad returning to the UK because of bad workmanship and cost of transport, Foreign investment from America France Italy Germany. No not a lot of evidence.

[phutoie2]

UK car manufacturing on the up, GBP at its highest against the Euro for some months, and Brits eating less Burgers & Pizza's. Well made pie's!! making a comeback. (funny item in todays DT).

We have taken our kicking and its time to put the Great back in Britain