Resurgence Of Thai Red Shirts Causes New Concerns

[webfact]

SIDELINES

Resurgence of red shirts causes new concerns

By Sopon Onkgara

The Nation

The rally by about 5,000 red shirts at Rajprasong intersection on Sunday marked the revival of their movement following the military crackdown after their rioting in May. Likewise, a similar gathering in Chiang Mai also attracted a few thousand red shirts from northern provinces. They claimed that the occasion was to commemorate the military coup on September 19, 2006.

For the red shirts, their presence at Rajprasong was symbolic. As expected, there was no display of good conscience, no remorse, no sense of shame for the serious crimes committed during May's rioting. In fact, they wanted to mark the passing of four months since they set fire to shopping centres, a theatre and an electricity office in organised acts of violence. These points, of course, were not emphasised at the rallies. The red shirts just claimed it was to mark the day when soldiers shot their fellow protesters.

What they should have explained was the cause of the crackdown by the military following armed red-shirt attacks on troops in the Rajdamnoen area on April 10. At least three battalions of infantry were attacked by men in black combat gear using assault rifles and grenade launchers.

The red-shirt resurgence at the weekend gave rise to more political trouble and a negative impact on the national economy. It also raised the spectre of a possible offensive to oust the Abhisit government.

The rallies in Bangkok and Chiang Mai were non-violent but they brought back bitter memories to people who watched televised street fights and the arson of shopping centres, following days of tyre burning and armed clashes that claimed 91 lives.

Owners of shops in the Rajprasong area must have been appalled by the prospect of possible violence and the looting of their premises, as happened four months ago, with losses worth billions of baht. CentralWorld, the target for arson, will reopen on September 28, but the operators must have watched the red-shirt rally with strong misgivings, if not dread.

The red shirts were rejoicing and were in euphoric mood during their rally, which was led by a former NGO worker, Sombat Boon-ngram-anong. He has spent some years in the North, working with hilltribe people, but his status was boosted yesterday. This will attract the attention of Thaksin Shinawatra and his limitless funds. Sombat can now be one of the new generation of red-shirt leaders, now that the top ones are in prison for their instigation of riots, looting and arson in May.

Sombat must have been surprised at his success in drawing so many red shirts to Rajprasong. At times he was unable to control the crowd when the mood turned ugly before they eventually dispersed in the evening. The success was noted, and it will only be a matter of time before other red-shirt leaders plan similar rallies to achieve their goals.

Of course, the other red-shirt leaders must have watched Sombat with apprehension. If the young man is recognised for his leadership, then he is in a position to demand funds from Thaksin and his cronies for campaign expenses - in the same way that enriched the first tier of red leaders.

But that is not a concern for the Abhisit government, as Thaksin will part with his money again and again to revive the red-shirt movements. It's about how and when the next rally will occur, and to what end. This time around, the red shirts will move with more caution. But there will still be acts of terror by men in black operating independently of the red-shirt leadership.

The national economy is on course toward full recovery. The tourism business is picking up, heading for the peak season. But the red-shirt resurgence could spoil all that, if it goes unchecked.

The rallies in Bangkok and Chiang Mai were the first red-shirt test of their own strength and the government's response. Thaksin will have to decide now whether he should stick with the call for compromise and reconciliation. His next moves will prove whether he indeed seeks a truce. But if his past record serves as any guide, he remains a man who cannot be trusted.

Prime Minister Abhisit will have to reassess what lies in store for him. The red-shirt movement has become a problem alongside his power play with the Bhum Jai Thai Party, which has become more and more arrogant, knowing no bounds as the days pass.

The embattled chief executive has to watch the new Army leadership, which will get down to business on October 1. One consolation is that at least those leaders have no love for the red shirts and Thaksin. The next two months will be crucial, with the fate of the Democrats to be decided in court for alleged wrongdoing. Abhisit must quickly decide what to do about the coalition partners and how to cope with this new rise of the red shirts. Being proactive could save him. By reacting without control over the circumstances, he will find out that there is not much he can do to survive.

-- The Nation 2010-09-21

[Just1Voice]

This article claims there were about 5,000 people at the rally while, in a different article of TN, the new police chief informed the PM that the police estimate was wrong, as the figure was more like 10,000.

Does someone need to go back to school to learn how to count??

[SomTumTiger]

Well - 5 or 10,000, is about all the "hard core" members they have. They only time their numbers swell beyond is when Thaksin pays the unemployed to show up, and signs point to his unwillingness to fund this further. As long as they down BURN ANYTHING DOWN, BOMB ANYTHING, OR SHOOT ANYONE - they can protest all they want, imo.

[hammered]

With an election coming up the red shirts need to make sure they dont get marginalised by their own side and some of their leaders also want to make sure the PTP hierarchy boots some of its sitting MPs in safe seats to make way for them. Too much going on right now for the red leaders to trust even the moderates on their own side. If negotiations and "reconcilliation" occur, there will be sacrificial lambs and they will come from extremes

[SamritT]

The decline in Red-shirt supporter is unbelievable. From a million down to 5,000. At this rate, the number of Red-shirt supports will go negatives by year end.

[hammered]

The red shirts are part of the future of Thailand whatever one thinks of them. Even most yellow supporters I know recognize this.

[Insight]

This article claims there were about 5,000 people at the rally while, in a different article of TN, the new police chief informed the PM that the police estimate was wrong, as the figure was more like 10,000.

Does someone need to go back to school to learn how to count??

There's three different photos on the front page of The Nation website for people to judge for themselves, not to mention the coverage it received on regular terrestrial news channels - such coverage of an anti-govt rally was on regular TV was unthinkable pre-2006.

/edit - Heard Sean whatsisname (local UDD lawyer) claim the reds that went along to the rally were middle-class Bangkokians. Really? That's not the impression I get from the pics.

Plenty of pics around for people to decide for themselves I suppose.

Edited September 21, 2010 by Insight

[BigBikeBKK]

The decline in Red-shirt supporter is unbelievable. From a million down to 5,000. At this rate, the number of Red-shirt supports will go negatives by year end.

Never even close to 1 million. Why are they allowed to rally in Bangkok under the SOE? They should all be locked up for breaking the law (again). And before you reds call me a yellow let me state my belief that the yellows should ALSO be locked up when they break the law :jap: (then again, peacefully taking over an airport and going on a murderous rampage in the nation's capitol probably call for different penalties under the law... )

[taurus88]

Khun Sophon is well known for his skewed point of view and his anti-Taksin stance. He is also very poor at counting. Public at large should be happy that the new packaged Reds are having the voices heard against the numerous undemocratic incidents that have occured in last 4 years. The Sunday gathering was to protest the most undemocratic event that has taken place whereby a democratic process was highjacked by force. Yes, Taksin was corrupt but there is no excuse to strong armed democracy. Events now like freedom of expression and the Emergency decree must be expressed and not kept silence and the Reds are doing just that. So what's wrong with that as long as it is our constitutional rights and peaceful. In the same vein, the black-shirt and the violent ultra Reds should be punished in line with the law. The main-stream Reds have castrated these violent elements and we should not lump them together.

[Suradit]

This article claims there were about 5,000 people at the rally while, in a different article of TN, the new police chief informed the PM that the police estimate was wrong, as the figure was more like 10,000.

Does someone need to go back to school to learn how to count??

You do realize that no one actually counts the people at a demonstration or rally or parade and that estimates tend to be based in part on the agenda of the person coming up with a number. But a great opportunity to imply that whoever made the estimates is too stupid to count, right?

A method for mob measurement Even absent publicity-driven pressures to hype the size of a public gathering, no crowd that doesn't go through a turnstile can be counted without some margin of error. (And as recent election recounts have proved, even counting something as simple as a stack of ballots can have a considerable margin of error.) But some fairly simple math can be used to make defensible estimates of crowd sizes.

The method goes back to the late 1960s and a University of California at Berkeley journalism professor named Herbert Jacobs, whose office was in a tower that overlooked the plaza where students frequently gathered to protest the Vietnam War. The plaza was marked with regular grid lines, which allowed Jacobs to see how many grid squares were filled with students and how many students on average packed into each grid.

After gathering data on numerous demonstrations, Jacobs came up with some rules of thumb that still are used today by those serious about crowd estimation. A loose crowd, one where each person is an arm's length from the body of his or her nearest neighbors, needs 10 square feet per person. A more tightly packed crowd fills 4.5 square feet per person. A truly scary mob of mosh-pit density would get about 2.5 square feet per person.The trick, then, is to accurately measure the square feet in the total area occupied by the crowd and divide it by the appropriate figure, depending on assessment of crowd density. Thanks to aerial photos or mapping applications like Google Earth, even outdoor areas can be readily measured these days.

[TallForeigner]

@Suradit

Let's put the method published by the Universtity of Berkely to the test. Analysing photos and measuring the area in which people were gathering on Google Earth:

Crowd length from Gaysorn Plaza to behind BigC is 380 meters; width of usable space on Rajdamri is 35 meters ==> crowded area was 13'300 square meters or 133'000 square feet

Crowd area on Ratchaprasong intersection: 80 meters x 40 meters ==> crowded are was an additional 3'200 square meters of 32'000 square feet

Total crowded area was about 165'000 square feet. According to this method a loose crowd would mean 16'500 protesters and a denser crowd more than 36'000 people. My personal estimate was 15'000 to 20'000 people.

This protest was not organised by the UDD; it was more of a spontaneous protest. Khun Sombat wanted to organize more of a spontaneous protest with fewer people and the UDD wanted to get the redshirts up to Chiang Mai. In the end everyone was surprised by this awesome and very significant display of peaceful people power.

No one got any single Baht to come here and people that travelled to Ratchaprasong paid their own expenses.

[featography]

The decline in Red-shirt supporter is unbelievable. From a million down to 5,000. At this rate, the number of Red-shirt supports will go negatives by year end.

If betting were legal, I would wager youre way wrong on that

[mrdjt]

Thailand desperately needs a government of national unity in which red and yellow are seen to be treated fairly and equally.

Articles like this one are divisive and inflame the issue even more.

The red shirts aren't going to go away.

You can flame me all you like, but conversations I've had with many ordinary Thai people show a deep change which the author

seems unaware of.

While he continues to attack Thaksin as the source of all evil, many in the red movement now say he is no longer the issue.

They are fighting for their freedom and for true democracy which is much more powerful thing.

Just back from Bangkok after a years absence, I was shocked to find that while things appear to be normalising on the surface,

there is a deep feeling of resentment and something like shock in peoples hearts rather than the bouyant optimism I've always felt before.

This issue needs healing not more inflaming.

[OzMick]

I prefer the older method of counting the legs and dividing by 2, with a regional fudge factor thrown in to allow for the incidence of land mines and the prevalence of motorcycles as transportation.

We cannot forget Suradit's note "You do realize that no one actually counts the people at a demonstration or rally or parade and that estimates tend to be based in part on the agenda of the person coming up with a number. But a great opportunity to imply that whoever made the estimates is too stupid to count, right?"

This probable explains how one observer comes up with a figure grossly larger than other observers. Is the "party atmosphere" still running strong?

edit to properly attribute quote

Edited September 21, 2010 by OzMick

[Buchholz]

My personal estimate was 15'000 to 20'000 people.

No one got any single Baht to come here

Wow. You checked that out with all 20,000 personally? Now that's dedication.

(even though no one else is claiming that number, not even the Reds themselves)

Mr. Sombat estimated at 10,000

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/20/world/asia/20thai.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

[elcent]

according to the images above the number is slightly below 10 000

[Robroy]

More propaganda.

The Thai elite has sequestered most of the nation's resources to itself.

Poverty exists for the many, in the face of porcine indulgence for the few.

The redshirt campaign is a response to that, not some mindless anarchist campaign.

If the reds could throw Thaksin overboard it would be very helpful. Being both violent and corrupt, he is clearly part of the problem, not the solution.

[GarryP]

That article is so biased it should not have made it to press. I support neither yellow or red, but come on. What if the yelllows, or whatever color they are now, converged on Rajprasong. You can be sure that the writer would be singing the praises of such a patriotic gathering. Reconciliation be damned.

Edited September 21, 2010 by GarryP

[TallForeigner]

@Buchholz

@elcent

Wow, very intelligent remarks from those armchair "experts" who have not been here on site. I have seen at what time Khun Sombat has been interviewed by the NY Times. It was earlier in the afternoon...at that time there were already 10'000 down here....but later there were many more. Ask him now and he will have updated his preliminary estimate. There is no one single photo that can cover all the areas packed with people; we had no helicopter or complete bird's eye view so you will not find a single photo covering the whole area. If anyone of you ridiculous armchair "experts" would have actually walked around the whole area and would have watched from different angles, bridges and footpaths and would have opened his eyes, your estimates might sound a bit more competent and credible.

[rich54321]

As everyone knows you have to have all sides to have talks - whether they are red yellow pink whatever - however the stubboness of everyone will not get everyone round a table to have a talk - IS IT A FACE THING! - or ignorance - and false promises if whoever gets round a table.

Either way all have to be included if they want to stop this country from turning into a chaotic mess, which will not be recognised by the rest of the world.

Shame if it happens but there could very well be a serious down turn here, if it all starts again!

[Max4243]

This article claims there were about 5,000 people at the rally while, in a different article of TN, the new police chief informed the PM that the police estimate was wrong, as the figure was more like 10,000.

Does someone need to go back to school to learn how to count??

Looking at other photos of other papers, the number of 10K or more is more accurate. Anyway, it seems that the red crowd are more from Bangkok instead of from the provinces and many are students and many speak English as reported by some posters in other website. This is a new bunch of supporters.

[elcent]

@Buchholz

@elcent

Wow, very intelligent remarks from those armchair "experts" who have not been here on site. I have seen at what time Khun Sombat has been interviewed by the NY Times. It was earlier in the afternoon...at that time there were already 10'000 down here....but later there were many more. Ask him now and he will have updated his preliminary estimate. There is no one single photo that can cover all the areas packed with people; we had no helicopter or complete bird's eye view so you will not find a single photo covering the whole area. If anyone of you ridiculous armchair "experts" would have actually walked around the whole area and would have watched from different angles, bridges and footpaths and would have opened his eyes, your estimates might sound a bit more competent and credible.

I have worked in the field of disposition and crowd control. What you have shown and explained is not correct. This kind of estimation is not considering dead spots, corners, the vehicles, sun screens and umbrellas and the like. The color red counts too which makes it look much bigger than it actually is. People usually try to gather like in a beehives while as the attached areas are not even counting to one fifth of the total crowd. Considering all of this you will have to give about 2 plus - square meters (average) per person, when you want to get the total estimate.

[Buchholz]

@Buchholz

@elcent

Wow, very intelligent remarks from those armchair "experts" who have not been here on site. I have seen at what time Khun Sombat has been interviewed by the NY Times. It was earlier in the afternoon...at that time there were already 10'000 down here....but later there were many more. Ask him now and he will have updated his preliminary estimate. There is no one single photo that can cover all the areas packed with people; we had no helicopter or complete bird's eye view so you will not find a single photo covering the whole area. If anyone of you ridiculous armchair "experts" would have actually walked around the whole area and would have watched from different angles, bridges and footpaths and would have opened his eyes, your estimates might sound a bit more competent and credible.

They are not my estimates.

Are there any news articles that corroborate your inflated 20,000?

If there were, you

might sound a bit more competent and credible

[phiphidon]

The Interior Ministry is mobilising a pro-monarchy rally to counter the mass gatherings called by the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship

today.At least 50,000 members of the Monarchy Defence Network from seven northeastern provinces _ Nong Khai, Kalasin, Loei, Nong Bua Lam Phu, Sakon Nakhon,

Khon Kaen and Udon Thani _ are expected to turn up today at Thung Sri Muang, a public ground in central Udon Thani. Observers believe the gathering is intended

as a foil to the UDD's nationwide rallies.

(19th September 2010)

Anybody got any idea how many turned up here. I've not seen anything in the news or on the web. Maybe someone from Udon can enlighten me.

[givenall]

Ignorance is a blessed. This is Thailand and nothing happens unless the Elite want it to happen, so it does not matter how many people, or haw many time these Red Shirt make it incontinence for all people including them since their kids and family are really the one employed in Bangkok businesses that ultimately get hurt

[asiawatcher]

The decline in Red-shirt supporter is unbelievable. From a million down to 5,000. At this rate, the number of Red-shirt supports will go negatives by year end.

We can live in hope.

But:

"... For the red shirts, their presence at Rajprasong was symbolic. As expected, there was no display of good conscience, no remorse, no sense of shame for the serious crimes committed during May's rioting. In fact, they wanted to mark the passing of four months since they set fire to shopping centres, a theatre and an electricity office in organised acts of violence. These points, of course, were not emphasised at the rallies. The red shirts just claimed it was to mark the day when soldiers shot their fellow protesters."

As clearly stated there is NO remorse, NO conscience and what occurred is all finger pointing and justification for their action. I would lock them all up. Total disregard to law and order and no care whatsoever. They are also brainwashed proving lack of intelligence - thus are known as Kwai Daeng - Red Buffaloes

[hammered]

At the end of the day the red shirts represent a sector of the Thai populace as do the yellow shirts and the pinkies for that matter. If they all manage to avoid charging around killing, threatening and burning why should anyone worry that they organize demos or stunts? At the end of the day they are going to have find some common ground among themsleves and with anyone in another group or outsdie any group for the country to move forwards. That is what happens in democracies and that is the route we should hope the various colour coded ones take here.

It may mean all of them and the government and opposition and exiled leaders and shadowy ones facing up to a few hard facts and be willing to let a few things go in the name of compromise but at the end of the day it has got to be better than more and increasing violence.

[Insight]

At the end of the day the red shirts represent a sector of the Thai populace as do the yellow shirts and the pinkies for that matter. If they all manage to avoid charging around killing, threatening and burning why should anyone worry that they organize demos or stunts? At the end of the day they are going to have find some common ground among themsleves and with anyone in another group or outsdie any group for the country to move forwards. That is what happens in democracies and that is the route we should hope the various colour coded ones take here.

It may mean all of them and the government and opposition and exiled leaders and shadowy ones facing up to a few hard facts and be willing to let a few things go in the name of compromise but at the end of the day it has got to be better than more and increasing violence.

Hope being the keyword here. The alternative is one side is radicalised into blaming (three syllables, sounds like) Bumrungrad Hospital for the deaths forcing the country closer towards civil war.

[OzMick]

More than one poster has referred to the Reds now being a democracy movement, with Thaksin no longer being an issue. As they seem to vote for PTP, please explain the following quote from today's news:

"Chalerm to seek Thaksin's approval on campaign platforms

Pheu Thai MP Chalerm Yoobamrung on Tuesday said he would soon meet with ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra to seek his approval for five campaign platforms at the next poll.

"Should Thaksin travel to the region, I will take a trip to meet and get his blessing for the Pheu Thai policies," he said.

[Robby nz]

The full article as from Mick above.

Chalerm to seek Thaksin's approval on campaign platforms

Pheu Thai MP Chalerm Yoobamrung on Tuesday said he would soon meet with ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra to seek his approval for five campaign platforms at the next poll.

"Should Thaksin travel to the region, I will take a trip to meet and get his blessing for the Pheu Thai policies," he said.

The five platforms are:

- To bring back the suspended 1997 Constitution,

- To impose five-year debt moratorium for farmers owing less than Bt500,000 and loan refinance for those with higher debt but not exceeding Bt1 million.

- To carry on policies initiated by Thaksin.

- To grant amnesty for all political cases dating back to September 19, 2006 and to pardon the political convicts if Pheu Thai Party secures election victory with a simple majority.

- To promote Thaksin as the campaign's selling point.

Chalerm voiced confidence that Phue Thai could manage to form a single-party government.

-- The Nation 2010-09-21

OK the quotes have dissapeared.

Note the 5 policy platforms.

1 is for the farmers and 4 are for Thaksin