Yingluck Bets on Army Calm as Thai Strains Rise: Southeast Asia

By Daniel Ten Kate

BANGKOK: -- As Thailand nears a showdown over the fate of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled tycoon’s sister is banking on the army’s neutrality to avoid a repeat of 2008 protests that led to the ouster of a government.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in an interview yesterday asserted her party’s parliamentary majority in backing moves to consider an amnesty for Thaksin, who was deposed in a 2006 coup and has lived overseas since fleeing a jail sentence in 2008. His opponents are mobilizing outside Parliament to block lawmakers from taking measures that would exonerate him.

“The army and the establishment are the ultimate arbiters,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. [more...]

Full story: http://www.businessw...-southeast-asia

-- Bloomberg News 2012-06-01

If the situation goes where I think it will, the people of Thailand will soon be begging for military intervention. I wish the Army would get on with it now and save the bloodshed that is inevitably coming.

In my opinion all foreigners living in Thailand and owning property here should be very concerned with the current actions of PTP & Yingluck, for the simple reason that if this regime are willing to violate the laws of Thailand & to disrespect the Judicial system itself, and to violate the rights of Thai people, this regime should have no hesitation in violating the rights of foreigners living in Thailand. Once they start overturning Supreme Court decisions which are the strongest pillars of Thai society, there is nothing to stop them targeting the peripheral sections of society who are already less represented under the existing laws.

If the situation goes where I think it will, the people of Thailand will soon be begging for military intervention. I wish the Army would get on with it now and save the bloodshed that is inevitably coming.

The army stepping in won't save any bloodshed. It will just change where it's coming from.

If the situation goes where I think it will, the people of Thailand will soon be begging for military intervention. I wish the Army would get on with it now and save the bloodshed that is inevitably coming.

Calm down Jim it's all under control

Cheap hotels, Free Visas and

.

.

The Kingdom is on auto-pilot. Corruption, protectionism, and nationalism have completely obscured the public's realization of the fact (presented today on the BBC, in the context of discussion of the WEF) that Thailand is fundamentally noncompetitive. Twenty-five years ago, Thailand would have continued to attract the majority of investment in Southeast Asia, as it was the West's only ally against communism and it was not a despotic country. Today, there is still much about Thailand to fawn over, but that is changing very fast. Indonesia's population nearly guarantees a massive increase in the country's regional significance. The future of ASEAN will be decided by Myanmar, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Thailand will slowly and very gradually fall into an isolated status that guarantees future political and social strife, as Bangkok will make progress while the rest of Thailand looks more like Laos. The proposals to create high-speed rail links to Chiang Mai are fairly comical, considering that few outside Bangkok could contemplate ticket-prices for such infrastructure; they are a rough microcosm of the larger problems of general ignorance and over-extended pride in Thailand. The Yingluck administration and Thaksin's sublime arrogance guarantee further ripples in a system that has extraordinary future "challenges" (deaths) to overcome.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

Was white washing Thaksin's crimes one the policies that "the people" voted for? I don't remember it being on any bill boards.

Is betting against the law in Thailand?

If the situation goes where I think it will, the people of Thailand will soon be begging for military intervention. I wish the Army would get on with it now and save the bloodshed that is inevitably coming.

Calm down Jim it's all under control

Cheap hotels, Free Visas and

.

.

Lock & load?

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

And they voted the way they were paid to vote.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

Actually 52% of the population votged against Thaksin and his policies.

The article stated.

"“Of course the reconciliation might not satisfy for all,” Yingluck said. “Reconciliation must be accepted by the majority of the people.”

She represents the minority of the people (48%) is she trying to say there will be a referendum for it.

If so it should be done before Thaksin has time to pay off all his supporters or they might vote against him.

In my opinion all foreigners living in Thailand and owning property here should be very concerned with the current actions of PTP & Yingluck, for the simple reason that if this regime are willing to violate the laws of Thailand & to disrespect the Judicial system itself, and to violate the rights of Thai people, this regime should have no hesitation in violating the rights of foreigners living in Thailand. Once they start overturning Supreme Court decisions which are the strongest pillars of Thai society, there is nothing to stop them targeting the peripheral sections of society who are already less represented under the existing laws.

I quite agree, although after so many years here, despite my anger and dismay at Thai politics, I long ago came to the realization that Thailand is for the Thais and if this is the type of country the want, and if these (or any of the actions seen over the last 5 years) are the type of actions and behaviors they condone. Well good luck to them. I hope they all enjoy living in Thailand. I neither gloat or shed any tears for the direction this country is heading as that direction is a direct result of years of political interference, corruption and lies which the voting public seems to accept year, after year, after year. So be it.

For my fellow expats TV members just remember to always make sure you have the means for a way out. This isn't our battle.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

"another bloodletting coup"

It's a minor point, but the last coup was bloodless and widely-welcomed, not bloodletting.

One can only hope that the current situation continues to be a peaceful process, too.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

Actually 52% of the population votged against Thaksin and his policies.

The article stated.

"“Of course the reconciliation might not satisfy for all,” Yingluck said. “Reconciliation must be accepted by the majority of the people.”

She represents the minority of the people (48%) is she trying to say there will be a referendum for it.

If so it should be done before Thaksin has time to pay off all his supporters or they might vote against him.

But if you add into that 48% the additional votes from coalition partners, then she with her coalition supporters in government, does represent the majority.

BANGKOK: -- As Thailand nears a showdown over the fate of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled tycoon’s sister is banking on the army’s neutrality to avoid a repeat of 2008 protests that led to the ouster of a government.

The other "banking" she'll be doing is the 900 Million Baht windfall she'll receive after the reconciliation bill is approved.

.

Sent from my iPad

BANGKOK: -- As Thailand nears a showdown over the fate of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled tycoon's sister is banking on the army's neutrality to avoid a repeat of 2008 protests that led to the ouster of a government.

The other "banking" she'll be doing is the 900 Million Baht windfall she'll receive after the reconciliation bill is approved.

.

Sent from my iPad

Now that's quite a motivation to "reconciliate".

I quite agree, although after so many years here, despite my anger and dismay at Thai politics, I long ago came to the realization that Thailand is for the Thais and if this is the type of country the want, and if these (or any of the actions seen over the last 5 years) are the type of actions and behaviors they condone. Well good luck to them. I hope they all enjoy living in Thailand. I neither gloat or shed any tears for the direction this country is heading as that direction is a direct result of years of political interference, corruption and lies which the voting public seems to accept year, after year, after year. So be it.

For my fellow expats TV members just remember to always make sure you have the means for a way out. This isn't our battle.

I agree with your post entirely, with the exception I do sometimes shed tears for the many normal working Thais who really have no control over the country they love whatsoever.

I don't shed tears over my own life in Thailand, my apartment was built in 1930s & is held together by duct-tape and Buddhist prayer, it is worth next to nothing so if PTP decided to nullify my Chanut then I don't really lose money as such. I would be very concerned if I owned expensive property here, because the current PTP "Recon Bill" is basicallly "legalising theft", and saying they have the right to steal billions & not even the Supreme Court can stop them. And I'm terminally ill so I don't really feel I have to run away for my safety. But I do feel very worried about my Thai friends & I do cry about it sometimes.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

Was white washing Thaksin's crimes one the policies that "the people" voted for? I don't remember it being on any bill boards.

"Thaksin Thinks, Peau Thai Acts" wasn't enough of a clue as to where it went next ?????

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

And they voted the way they were paid to vote.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to Sonthi.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

Actually 52% of the population votged against Thaksin and his policies.

The article stated.

"“Of course the reconciliation might not satisfy for all,” Yingluck said. “Reconciliation must be accepted by the majority of the people.”

She represents the minority of the people (48%) is she trying to say there will be a referendum for it.

If so it should be done before Thaksin has time to pay off all his supporters or they might vote against him.

But if you add into that 48% the additional votes from coalition partners, then she with her coalition supporters in government, does represent the majority.

The Thais that voted for those coalitions partners did not know they were voting for YS nor amnesty for TS.

When is TS scheduled to arrive and replace little sis?

Most of the post so far in this thread are just expression of Farang paranoia and ignorant Thai bashing.

I don’t think the Army will stage a coup over this. There is little civil society activism against the bill and there has been no overt, or even subtle support from above for such action (though the recent wearing of an Army uniform was indeed a somewhat significant signal). The Army will not move without some perceived support of civil society.

Since at this point it appears this time there will be little mass mobilization of protestors against the bill, as opposed to 2008 when the Shinawatra’s last tried this method, it may in all likelihood end up passing.

I suspect this may end up being a good thing. Most people are very tired of this basically meaningless conflict between different groups of elites and it seems to me the middle class just wants to get on with life.

They are willing to let this go and see what happens. Since Thaksin is basically not a populist at heart, they have little to worry about Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.

TH

If the situation goes where I think it will, the people of Thailand will soon be begging for military intervention. I wish the Army would get on with it now and save the bloodshed that is inevitably coming.

The army stepping in won't save any bloodshed. It will just change where it's coming from.

Of course it will....

Thaksin Thinks, Peau Thai Acts" wasn't enough of a clue as to where it went next ?????

I think we all new where it would lead. We just hoped it wouldn't.

Sad times ahead.

Most of the post so far in this thread are just expression of Farang paranoia and ignorant Thai bashing.

I don’t think the Army will stage a coup over this. There is little civil society activism against the bill and there has been no overt, or even subtle support from above for such action (though the recent wearing of an Army uniform was indeed a somewhat significant signal). The Army will not move without some perceived support of civil society.

Since at this point it appears this time there will be little mass mobilization of protestors against the bill, as opposed to 2008 when the Shinawatra’s last tried this method, it may in all likelihood end up passing.

I suspect this may end up being a good thing. Most people are very tired of this basically meaningless conflict between different groups of elites and it seems to me the middle class just wants to get on with life.

They are willing to let this go and see what happens. Since Thaksin is basically not a populist at heart, they have little to worry about Thailand turning into a Venezuela, and a Singapore may not be a bad thing at this point.

TH

Since Thaksin is basically not a populist at heart

Thanks for the laugh

We will have reconcillation wheather you like it or not.

Someone should tell Abhisit and his yellow shirt cronies that the Thai people voted against their policies at the last election, an election acknowledged as being fair and democratic. This time the army will not heed the yellowshirt calls for another bloodletting coup.

The Thai people DID NOT vote against Abhisits polices, because they wouldn't know what they were, 75% of Thailand have no Idea----they voted for money-given-known fact, but most importantly voted because they believed Thaksin would make the poor rich in 6 months, DID he ??? NO all they have acieved is more division-in trying to give the fugitive a pardon.

And they voted the way they were paid to vote.

OK. So abolish voting.

Just hand power to Sonthi.

Sonthi is with Thaksin now....if you missed that strange detail.

BANGKOK: -- As Thailand nears a showdown over the fate of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled tycoon's sister is banking on the army's neutrality to avoid a repeat of 2008 protests that led to the ouster of a government.

The other "banking" she'll be doing is the 900 Million Baht windfall she'll receive after the reconciliation bill is approved.

Sent from my iPad

He'll get his what was it? 48 billions back and give little sister just 900 Million.

Someone should tell her that he is cheating her, she deserves half of it.