GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[NeverSure]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many

"good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to

1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in

1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the

backs of the banks in Thailand.

you are not informed "neversure". the lion share of construction is not financed

by banks but was always paid for by "black" money. it's the ideal way to launder

Baht which escaped the Thai taxman.

Thai Bank Alert - JP Morgan.

13% year over year bank loan growth.

Don't forget fractional banking. And don't forget that in some countries such as the US, banks hold only about 20% of wealth, where in developing countries it's usually more like 80% making the whole country more vulnerable if banks stumble.

[Thailand1977]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many

"good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to

1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in

1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the

backs of the banks in Thailand.

you are not informed "neversure". the lion share of construction is not financed

by banks but was always paid for by "black" money. it's the ideal way to launder

Baht which escaped the Thai taxman.

Thai Bank Alert - JP Morgan.

13% year over year bank loan growth.

Don't forget fractional banking. And don't forget that in some countries such as the US, banks hold only about 20% of wealth, where in developing countries it's usually more like 80% making the whole country more vulnerable if banks stumble.

Good call, there is much more to Thailands property market then the few lucky corrupt folk who buy BKK and tourist area apartments.

Seems like the banks there are desperate to copy the west and create their own property bubble .. quote - housing loan outlook is improving from the past couple of years. From 10-12% housing loan growth in the past two years, "we see a good chance

of this expanding into 15-17% next year."

No doubt remortgaging for the latest Toyota is also rife.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Thailand1977

[wellred]

The government over here needs to nationalise all the utility companies. They are making a killing and there is no one to stop them keeping there price rises below inflation. If people were spending less each month on basic things like water or gas they may have a few bob extra to go go out and buy things and who knows it could help kick start the economy.

[Naam]

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

i don't think anybody who uses the term "i'm long Baht" has converted his life's savings into THB. i am 'long Baht' too and went not too long ago even "longer".

however, my Baht holdings are less than 8% of my liquid capital and out of the afore-mentioned ~8% i can convert half with a phone call and within minutes into any currency i favour during weekdays because i hold them offshore.

[Denizen]

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

i don't think anybody who uses the term "i'm long Baht" has converted his life's savings into THB. i am 'long Baht' too and went not too long ago even "longer".

however, my Baht holdings are less than 8% of my liquid capital and out of the afore-mentioned ~8% i can convert half with a phone call and within minutes into any currency i favour during weekdays because i hold them offshore.

I am 100% in Baht and laughing. Sounds like your liquid capital is intended for your bar keeper.

[cardholder]

You can't take long to the grave........

I am succeeding in my plan to be short in all currencies.

[Naam]

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

i don't think anybody who uses the term "i'm long Baht" has converted his life's savings into THB. i am 'long Baht' too and went not too long ago even "longer".

however, my Baht holdings are less than 8% of my liquid capital and out of the afore-mentioned ~8% i can convert half with a phone call and within minutes into any currency i favour during weekdays because i hold them offshore.

I am 100% in Baht and laughing. Sounds like your liquid capital is intended for your bar keeper.

8% of my liquid capital is equivalent to five years of our living expenses in Thailand. being 100% in Baht would scare the living beejesus out of me. the same goes for being more than 20% in any asset or currency without the means to get out and switch within minutes.

[Denizen]

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

i don't think anybody who uses the term "i'm long Baht" has converted his life's savings into THB. i am 'long Baht' too and went not too long ago even "longer".

however, my Baht holdings are less than 8% of my liquid capital and out of the afore-mentioned ~8% i can convert half with a phone call and within minutes into any currency i favour during weekdays because i hold them offshore.

I am 100% in Baht and laughing. Sounds like your liquid capital is intended for your bar keeper.

8% of my liquid capital is equivalent to five years of our living expenses in Thailand. being 100% in Baht would scare the living beejesus out of me. the same goes for being more than 20% in any asset or currency without the means to get out and switch within minutes.

My bleief is Thai Baht is still under-valued. In 1985 it was USD 1 = THB 21. I believe this is more realistic long term value because Thailand has developed and matured considerably since 1985.

[ExpatOilWorker]

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

i don't think anybody who uses the term "i'm long Baht" has converted his life's savings into THB. i am 'long Baht' too and went not too long ago even "longer".

however, my Baht holdings are less than 8% of my liquid capital and out of the afore-mentioned ~8% i can convert half with a phone call and within minutes into any currency i favour during weekdays because i hold them offshore.

I am 100% in Baht and laughing. Sounds like your liquid capital is intended for your bar keeper.

8% of my liquid capital is equivalent to five years of our living expenses in Thailand. being 100% in Baht would scare the living beejesus out of me. the same goes for being more than 20% in any asset or currency without the means to get out and switch within minutes.

Did you just disclose your net worth Naam?

I take you for a 100K/month kind of guy, and if 5 years is 8%, then 100% is...........75 M.

[Denizen]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

Are you joyfully long on GBP?

Answer the question, come on you claim to be a financial genius yet you write the most retarded comment i have ever seen on Thai visa.

Being as i live in England i am as long as you want.

My dear chap, you don't seem very happy with your lot. Have you missed the boat?

Edited March 4, 2013 by Denizen

[Robby nz]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

I suppose major depends where your funding comes from mine is from NZ and increasing against a falling Baht, also against plunging Pounds US$ Yen and so on, same with the OZ I believe.

[thenervoussurgeon]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many

"good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to

1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in

1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the

backs of the banks in Thailand.

you are not informed "neversure". the lion share of construction is not financed

by banks but was always paid for by "black" money. it's the ideal way to launder

Baht which escaped the Thai taxman.

Thai Bank Alert - JP Morgan.

13% year over year bank loan growth.

Don't forget fractional banking. And don't forget that in some countries such as the US, banks hold only about 20% of wealth, where in developing countries it's usually more like 80% making the whole country more vulnerable if banks stumble.

Good call, there is much more to Thailands property market then the few lucky corrupt folk who buy BKK and tourist area apartments.

Seems like the banks there are desperate to copy the west and create their own property bubble .. quote - housing loan outlook is improving from the past couple of years. From 10-12% housing loan growth in the past two years, "we see a good chance

of this expanding into 15-17% next year."

No doubt remortgaging for the latest Toyota is also rife.

You hit the nail on the head there , my wife has a friend who owns her own car and small condo outright ,i know this lady likes to look good and spend her wages ,which by Thai standards are not bad ,but the other day my wife told me that this lady was in debt so much that she has to sell her condo to pay off her debts ,she wants us to buy it at a reduced price and then she will rent it from us untill she can afford to one day buy it back . And this is an inteligent woman , Thai people just seem to live for the day and have very little forward planning ,i see this time after time after time here.

[Naam]

Did you just disclose your net worth Naam?

I take you for a 100K/month kind of guy, and if 5 years is 8%, then 100% is...........75 M.

that would apply if i kept my assets under the mattress without producing any income. fact is that my annual income is around four times my expenditure, id est i hold approximately 15 months income in cash Baht.

p.s. should your 100k/month refer to Baht then you are way off the mark

[Denizen]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

I suppose major depends where your funding comes from mine is from NZ and increasing against a falling Baht, also against plunging Pounds US$ Yen and so on, same with the OZ I believe.

Mr. Thailand 1977 doesn't appear to be holding any Baht and is not too happy at the moment. In the long term he is not going to get any happier because the GBP is still parachuting down.

[Denizen]

Did you just disclose your net worth Naam?

I take you for a 100K/month kind of guy, and if 5 years is 8%, then 100% is...........75 M.

that would apply if i kept my assets under the mattress without producing any income. fact is that my annual income is around four times my expenditure, id est i hold approximately 15 months income in cash Baht.

p.s. should your 100k/month refer to Baht then you are way off the mark

Over or under?

[Naam]

You hit the nail on the head there , my wife has a friend who owns her own car and small condo outright ,i know this lady likes to look good and spend her wages ,which by Thai standards are not bad ,but the other day my wife told me that this lady was in debt so much that she has to sell her condo to pay off her debts ,she wants us to buy it at a reduced price and then she will rent it from us untill she can afford to one day buy it back . And this is an inteligent woman , Thai people just seem to live for the day and have very little forward planning ,i see this time after time after time here.

isn't it nowadays normal that people in many other countries have little forward planning? we lived for nearly 15 years most of the time in the U.S. and spent only a couple of months per year in our house in Germany.

once i told a German banker that we are horrified that Americans finance each and everything (whether it's the car, the TVset or the ride-on lawnmower) he answered cooly do you think the Porsches, BMWs and Mercedes you see on German roads are paid for in cash? if yes, little do you know!

[Naam]

Did you just disclose your net worth Naam?

I take you for a 100K/month kind of guy, and if 5 years is 8%, then 100% is...........75 M.

that would apply if i kept my assets under the mattress without producing any income. fact is that my annual income is around four times my expenditure, id est i hold approximately 15 months income in cash Baht.

p.s. should your 100k/month refer to Baht then you are way off the mark

Over or under?

under?

[Denizen]

You hit the nail on the head there , my wife has a friend who owns her own car and small condo outright ,i know this lady likes to look good and spend her wages ,which by Thai standards are not bad ,but the other day my wife told me that this lady was in debt so much that she has to sell her condo to pay off her debts ,she wants us to buy it at a reduced price and then she will rent it from us untill she can afford to one day buy it back . And this is an inteligent woman , Thai people just seem to live for the day and have very little forward planning ,i see this time after time after time here.

isn't it nowadays normal that people in many other countries have little forward planning? we lived for nearly 15 years most of the time in the U.S. and spent only a couple of months per year in our house in Germany.

once i told a German banker that we are horrified that Americans finance each and everything (whether it's the car, the TVset or the ride-on lawnmower) he answered cooly do you think the Porsches, BMWs and Mercedes you see on German roads are paid for in cash? if yes, little do you know!

That's how economies work. If people had to buy everything with cash economies would shrink very substantially.

[Denizen]

Did you just disclose your net worth Naam?

I take you for a 100K/month kind of guy, and if 5 years is 8%, then 100% is...........75 M.

that would apply if i kept my assets under the mattress without producing any income. fact is that my annual income is around four times my expenditure, id est i hold approximately 15 months income in cash Baht.

p.s. should your 100k/month refer to Baht then you are way off the mark

Over or under?

under?

So 100 k THB is over the mark?

[Naam]

So 100 k THB is over the mark?

yes, it is slightly over the mark what i spend in 9 days.

[Greenside]

Sorry for getting this thread back on track but I have several payment deadlines approaching for house construction. The original budget was calculated at 48B/GBP, I can live with 47 ish but 46 and under is likely to require some urgent action.

The funds will be needed in stages between now and October - what would you do?

[smedly]

8% = 800kbaht perhaps or 400kbaht depending

[15Peter20]

Sorry for getting this thread back on track but I have several payment deadlines approaching for house construction. The original budget was calculated at 48B/GBP, I can live with 47 ish but 46 and under is likely to require some urgent action.

The funds will be needed in stages between now and October - what would you do?

How much is your peace of mind worth? I'd bite the bullet and get THB now in exchange for not having to constantly worry for the next 8 months.

[15Peter20]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

[draftvader]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

I don't actually know the answer in detail, but it is linked into how stock from the country is being traded (i.e. which direction, currencies, etc). What I do know is that programmers that are FAR more advanced than me (and of the type I have had the pleasure to work with) are working on predictive trading algorithms as a lot of trade is now automated, within certain parameters, to allow financial organisations to make the most from their trades. The problem comes down to speed of communication. At present they are having issues with, for example, a trader in Sydney seeing a price on a Japanese stock, making a purchase decision (single button press) and the actual price by the time that command is communicated to the relevant stock market. Being that the speed of the trading machines are some of the highest in the world often trade from within the trading region (in our example, Beijing would be within the trading region) will have moved that price significantly by the time the SYD-TOKYO-SYD communication has taken place. This can destroy any gains on a deal within the time it takes to complete! Quite shocking really!

----EDIT----

Found it. Bayes' theorem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Haven't had a chance to read it through again, but this theorem was, basically, ignored in his lifetime. Now it is used for all sorts of predictions including financial, weather patterns, drug testing, population growth/distribution and MANY more. More alarming is that this was his one and only mathematical theorem!!!

Edited March 4, 2013 by draftvader

[ExpatOilWorker]

Should be mandatory to study and unserstand the Bayes' Theorem before going to Nana plaza:

Not all "girls" with long hair are actually girls.

Introductory exampleSuppose someone told you they had a nice conversation with someone on the train. Not knowing anything else about this conversation, the probability that they were speaking to a woman is 50%. Now suppose they also told you that this person had long hair. It is now more likely they were speaking to a woman, since most long-haired people are women. Bayes' theorem can be used to calculate the probability that the person is a woman.

To see how this is done, let

represent the event that the conversation was held with a woman, and
denote the event that the conversation was held with a long-haired person.
It can be assumed that women constitute half the population for this example. So, not knowing anything else, the probability that occurs is

Suppose it is also known that 75% of women have long hair, which we denote as

(read: the probability of event given event is 0.75).

Likewise, suppose it is known that 30% of men have long hair, or

,
where is the complementary event of , i.e., the event that the conversation was held with a man (assuming that every human is either a man or a woman).

Our goal is to calculate the probability that the conversation was held with a woman, given the fact that the person had long hair, or, in our notation, . Using the formula for Bayes' theorem, we have:

where we have used the law of total probability. The numeric answer can be obtained by substituting the above values into this formula. This yields

i.e., the probability that the conversation was held with a woman, given that the person had long hair, is about 71%.

[15Peter20]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

I don't actually know the answer in detail, but it is linked into how stock from the country is being traded (i.e. which direction, currencies, etc). What I do know is that programmers that are FAR more advanced than me (and of the type I have had the pleasure to work with) are working on predictive trading algorithms as a lot of trade is now automated, within certain parameters, to allow financial organisations to make the most from their trades. The problem comes down to speed of communication. At present they are having issues with, for example, a trader in Sydney seeing a price on a Japanese stock, making a purchase decision (single button press) and the actual price by the time that command is communicated to the relevant stock market. Being that the speed of the trading machines are some of the highest in the world often trade from within the trading region (in our example, Beijing would be within the trading region) will have moved that price significantly by the time the SYD-TOKYO-SYD communication has taken place. This can destroy any gains on a deal within the time it takes to complete! Quite shocking really!

----EDIT----

Found it. Bayes' theorem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Haven't had a chance to read it through again, but this theorem was, basically, ignored in his lifetime. Now it is used for all sorts of predictions including financial, weather patterns, drug testing, population growth/distribution and MANY more. More alarming is that this was his one and only mathematical theorem!!!

Timestamp the button click?

[Naam]

Quite shocking really!

is the rubbish you spread!

[draftvader]

Quite shocking really!

is the rubbish you spread!

Wow, you noticed me!

[draftvader]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

I don't actually know the answer in detail, but it is linked into how stock from the country is being traded (i.e. which direction, currencies, etc). What I do know is that programmers that are FAR more advanced than me (and of the type I have had the pleasure to work with) are working on predictive trading algorithms as a lot of trade is now automated, within certain parameters, to allow financial organisations to make the most from their trades. The problem comes down to speed of communication. At present they are having issues with, for example, a trader in Sydney seeing a price on a Japanese stock, making a purchase decision (single button press) and the actual price by the time that command is communicated to the relevant stock market. Being that the speed of the trading machines are some of the highest in the world often trade from within the trading region (in our example, Beijing would be within the trading region) will have moved that price significantly by the time the SYD-TOKYO-SYD communication has taken place. This can destroy any gains on a deal within the time it takes to complete! Quite shocking really!

----EDIT----

Found it. Bayes' theorem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Haven't had a chance to read it through again, but this theorem was, basically, ignored in his lifetime. Now it is used for all sorts of predictions including financial, weather patterns, drug testing, population growth/distribution and MANY more. More alarming is that this was his one and only mathematical theorem!!!

Timestamp the button click?

This would require the markets to work backwards.