Gloomy days ahead for Thai economy

[webfact]

Gloomy days ahead for Thai economy
By Digital Content



BANGKOK, Jan 2 – Thailand is moving towards a gloomy economy this year with predicted negative developments in domestic consumption, private investment and exports, according to Kasikorn Research Centre.

The Centre forecast Thailand’s economic growth in 2013 at 2.7 per cent, a sharp drop from 6.5 per cent in 2012 while export will plunge to its worst in four years with only 0.3 per cent increase despite a strengthened global economy in the second half of last year and contributing baht movement.

Thai economy this year will be volatile given escalating political conflicts without concrete resolutions, it said.

If the political turmoil continues until mid-year, it will impact domestic consumption particularly in spending among households, private investment and state disbursement, it said.

The Centre said the negative factors will lead to uncertainty in Thailand’s economic recovery, adding that the Thai economy will possibly grow by only 2.5 per cent this year despite export achievements. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2014-01-02

[CelticBhoy]

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

[nong38]

On the bright side sounds good for the exchange rate then!

[Costas2008]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

[taff33]

You reap what you sow Thailand,you can only mess people around for so long,investers will go else where and it will be hard to get them back.

[taff33]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Care about the country that we are living in,do you really think that the Thais care about us.I think that if Suthep gets his way it will be very hard for us to stay living in Thailand.

[edwinchester]

Wifey knows a quite wealthy business guy who has just had a major business deal collapse after the Japanese investor pulled out citing the political unrest in Thailand as the reason. I doubt if he's the only one.

[Risenman]

A devalued Bhat will limit the effect of recent wage rises, reposition the export industries in a stronger position and allow the tourist destinations to be more cost competitive and so bounce back quicker. It's all part of the cycle. Make the most of it while you can because the cycle will eventually see it rise and that will have a different set of economic affects.

[kingalfred]

Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy.the country folk of north threw out a competent government in 2011

thinking they would be better off . Soon they will be lucky to have 2 bahts to rub together but plenty of rice and precisely little else.

Edited January 2, 2014 by kingalfred

[bigbamboo]

The economy may have been knackered for now but with all that rice lying around at least the Thai people won't starve.

[CraigSchuler]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Care about the country that we are living in,do you really think that the Thais care about us.I think that if Suthep gets his way it will be very hard for us to stay living in Thailand.

Why?

[thailandpeter2]

yes, many looking only to their self interest. for me for example, a weak thai baht would not be that good (our company purchasing in usd abroad and selling in thb)... well, for some good, for some bad. also, if there should be any greater political disturbances, i wonder whether a holiday in thailand will still look attractive, even with a low baht. or retirement in thailand... well, also, retirees will get more for their usd of euro pensions - but on the other side, especially imported goods will get more expensive in thailand, including 'farang food'...

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

[thailandpeter2]

export stronger because of weak baht: only good for these exporters who have 100 % thai-origin raw materials, no components bought abroad

but worse for inflation: rising prices for imported goods and how about energy? the world market's oil prices are quoted in usd!

and if there are political problems or disturbances, who will want to holiday in thailand, even with a low thai baht?

it's a cycle, that's for sure, but i would not need the political problems factor in the mix, that's a bad component for sure!

A devalued Bhat will limit the effect of recent wage rises, reposition the export industries in a stronger position and allow the tourist destinations to be more cost competitive and so bounce back quicker. It's all part of the cycle. Make the most of it while you can because the cycle will eventually see it rise and that will have a different set of economic affects.

[thailandpeter2]

export stronger because of weak baht: only good for these exporters who have 100 % thai-origin raw materials, no components bought abroad

but worse for inflation: rising prices for imported goods and how about energy? the world market's oil prices are quoted in usd!

and if there are political problems or disturbances, who will want to holiday in thailand, even with a low thai baht?

it's a cycle, that's for sure, but i would not need the political problems factor in the mix, that's a bad component for sure!

A devalued Bhat will limit the effect of recent wage rises, reposition the export industries in a stronger position and allow the tourist destinations to be more cost competitive and so bounce back quicker. It's all part of the cycle. Make the most of it while you can because the cycle will eventually see it rise and that will have a different set of economic affects.

[thailandpeter2]

first of all, if he does proceed with the shutdown and government offices won't work for some time, where will foreigners renew their visas and work permits during this period? i would not think that the government would just allow a stay of visa renewals or work permits for that period. remember the short closure of the employment office in phuket, after which they said that everybody found working without a valid - but already applied for - work permit would be arrested, even if that delay would have been caused by the temporary office closure? so, don't hold your breath for any changes in the rules for foreigners even if government offices will be closed....

well, maybe they will manage to set up alternate office locations for that period. then, i guess, suthep will shut these down too...

but generally, i do not think it would matter very much for foreigners which side would form the government. we wil still need visa, work permits, etc., under which government whatsoever...

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Care about the country that we are living in,do you really think that the Thais care about us.I think that if Suthep gets his way it will be very hard for us to stay living in Thailand.

Why?

[LuckyLew]

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

Give me a 40 .... no no no do we hear 45 ??????????????/

Thai economy goes Kaboom

[LuckyLew]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

We farangs need more baht for the buck ... we have to keep getting visa and visa extension to stay here

Thais three favorite words are me me me ... so what is wrong with a little farang self interest?

[roiethome]

A devalued Baht is good all round-

Exports become more attractive

Tourists increase as they get more Bht for their $

Expats and retirees get more in their pockets too.

[Costas2008]

LuckyLew, on 02 Jan 2014 - 12:09, said:

Costas2008, on 02 Jan 2014 - 11:02, said:

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

We farangs need more baht for the buck ... we have to keep getting visa and visa extension to stay here

Thais three favorite words are me me me ... so what is wrong with a little farang self interest?

So.....we should bring ourselves to the same intellectual level of some Thais?

[123thaibourbon]

not if Kra Canal is finally created! http://thediplomat.com/tag/kra-canal/ yim Si-yom..

[BirdsandBooze]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Too be fair, IMHO most expats including myself are here primarily for their own benefit. That's why people from around the world relocate to other countries.

[huahinjoe]

Everybody who try to understand the real history of World Powers vs. Thailand should see this video from LPAC:

http://larouchepac.com/node/28237

[OmegaRacer]

Good article here

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

[robblok]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

[ramrod711]

Good work Yingluck and caddie, a job well done. May your idiotic rice scheme, water management scheme and even more ridiculous high speed rail "plan" give you the support you deserve.

[Prbkk]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Clearly you have no recollection of the 1990s

[robblok]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Clearly you have no recollection of the 1990s

As i have just read it were not the democrats that were in charge then. So please explain.

But its just a plan to shift attention from the embarrassment that is this red government. The whole world economy is improving and Thailand is slipping.. rice scam has destroyed their nr rice exporter status. They want to do off the books projects so then can steal more. Come on defend them and make a fool out of yourself.

[Prbkk]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Clearly you have no recollection of the 1990s

As i have just read it were not the democrats that were in charge then. So please explain.

But its just a plan to shift attention from the embarrassment that is this red government. The whole world economy is improving and Thailand is slipping.. rice scam has destroyed their nr rice exporter status. They want to do off the books projects so then can steal more. Come on defend them and make a fool out of yourself.

I don't defend this govt's economic record. It is very poor. On the other hand, Thaksin was a very good manager. Thailand did well under his time. The old guard, Democrats and their allies/cronies were hopeless

[robblok]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Clearly you have no recollection of the 1990s

As i have just read it were not the democrats that were in charge then. So please explain.

But its just a plan to shift attention from the embarrassment that is this red government. The whole world economy is improving and Thailand is slipping.. rice scam has destroyed their nr rice exporter status. They want to do off the books projects so then can steal more. Come on defend them and make a fool out of yourself.

I don't defend this govt's economic record. It is very poor. On the other hand, Thaksin was a very good manager. Thailand did well under his time. The old guard, Democrats and their allies/cronies were hopeless

Taksin had the economic wind with him a world economy going up and all. Not hard to do a good job then. But even with the world economy getting better this government isnt doing a good job.

The democrats haven't been in power for a long time hard to blame them for anything.

[ggold]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Well, the fact that we can't vote (not that any of them are worth voting for) and that nine times out of ten, when ever it comes to renewal of visas, it is like they are doing you a BIG favour!

I should think one of the more important aspects of living here is the exchange rate. So yes why shouldn't that be a self interest for us all, how is that different from how Thais behave. They do say after all! "when in rome act as the romans do"!

And yes I hope the Baht crashes. This was always on the cards once the west started to improve economically! Thais only have themselves to blame for the situation they are in.

And as a Greek you should know this above all other European nations! Just look at the way the country was run!