Thailand on the brink

[webfact]

Thailand on the brink
Mark Fenn


Protesters seize a bulldozer in an attempt to plow through police barricades outside Government House last month. (WNV/Mark Fenn)

Thailand is no stranger to political turmoil but the current unrest looks set to be a protracted and especially bitter affair, raising the very real possibility of civil war.

The stage seems set for a showdown between anti-government forces, backed by powerful vested interests, and a flawed but democratically elected government that enjoys mass support, especially in its rural heartlands.

The conflict is being waged between rival factions of the elite, but also on class, ethnic and regional fronts. Predicting the future in Thai politics is futile, but more mass protests and bloodshed on the streets seem inevitable.

Over the past two months, tens – perhaps hundreds – of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of the capital Bangkok to demand less democracy, and the overthrow of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government.

They claim it is illegitimate and controlled by Yingluck’s brother Thaksin, who was overthrown as prime minister in a 2006 military coup. He lives in exile in Dubai to avoid a two-year jail term for abuse of power.

The protesters are backed by the ineffectual and misnamed Democrat Party, which has abdicated its role as a responsible opposition and announced that it will boycott snap elections called for Feb. 2. In the knowledge that it is likely to lose once again, it has, in effect, turned its back on democracy.

“The opposition has been unable to compete in the game of electoral politics and thus chose to play mob politics and provoke violence to overthrow the government,” said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the University of Kyoto’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies.

The protest leaders portray the government “as an evil regime to legitimize their own unreasonable demands and behavior,” he added.

The protesters are drawn from Bangkok’s middle class and wealthy elite, and from opposition strongholds in the south of the country. Their constant refrain is that poor rural Thais — those who voted for the government — are ignorant, ill-informed and sell their votes to the highest bidder.

Frustrated at the inability of the Democrats to win elections, they say the country is not ready for democracy. This hate-filled rhetoric has contributed to an atmosphere where many Thais are now seriously debating the merits of universal suffrage and one-man-one-vote.

Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban — a former Democrat deputy prime minister facing murder charges for his role in a 2010 crackdown on anti-government demonstrations — now finds himself on the other side of the barricades.

He has called for the overthrow of the current government, the suspension of electoral democracy, and rule by an appointed council of “good people” — prompting some commentators to describe his goals as essentially fascist.

A rabble-rousing demagogue with a shady background tainted by allegations of corruption, Suthep is hailed as a hero by supporters for his promises to defend the monarchy, tackle graft and clean up government.

Although a warrant has been issued for his arrest on an insurrection charge, he rails daily against the “Thaksin regime” from the protest stages. He has vowed to sabotage the election and stop it taking place until legal, political and bureaucratic “reforms” are implemented, though his proposals are vague.

Protesters clashed with police as they tried to storm a stadium where election preparations were taking place on Dec. 26, and blocked candidate registration in eight southern provinces. Three people — a policeman and two protesters — were shot dead at the end of December. The gunmen have not been identified, but both sides have hinted at the involvement of a “third hand,” or agents provocateurs.

Meanwhile, in the north and northeast of Thailand — the government’s support base — millions of loyal “red shirt” voters are seething with anger over what they see as yet another attempt by the Bangkok elite to bring down a government they have voted into power.

Social changes

The current protests were sparked in November, when the government clumsily tried to push through an amnesty bill that would have pardoned thousands of people convicted of politically related crimes between 2003 and last year.

This would have paved the way for the return of Thaksin, a deeply polarizing figure who is loved by his supporters and loathed by his enemies.

Human Rights Watch has described Thaksin as “a human rights abuser of the worst kind,” and he has been beset by allegations of corruption and nepotism. Yet he commands fierce loyalty in parts of the country for introducing policies that benefited the rural poor.

The policeman-turned-telecoms tycoon, who first swept to power in the 2001 general election, proved an astute politician. He took advantage of broad social changes, appealing to increasingly affluent and better-educated rural voters, especially in the poor northeastern region which had long been neglected by rulers in Bangkok.

His government introduced a number of well-received policies, including heavily subsidized healthcare, village grants and micro-credit for small businesses, which opponents decried as “populist” measures designed to buy support.

But his brash manner and willingness to upset the status quo made Thaksin many enemies among the Bangkok elite, which revolves around the palace, big business and the senior echelons of the military.

They saw him as a threat to the monarchy and their traditional power and privilege. In 2006, following mass street protests similar to the current ones, the army ousted Thaksin in a coup that was welcomed by many in the capital.

And yet, despite the best efforts of the elite, the Democrats and a politicized judiciary, the people of Thailand continue to elect Thaksin-backed parties into government. In various guises, they have now won the past five general elections, thanks mainly to their strong support in the north and northeast.

The staunchly royalist, nationalist Democrats continue to fare well in Bangkok and the south of the country. But they haven’t won a general election since 1992, although they headed a coalition government from 2008-2011 following a controversial court decision that dissolved a ruling Thaksin-backed party. Now they appear to have given up trying.

Climate of fear

Full story: http://wagingnonviolence.org/feature/thailand-brink/

-- WAGGING NON VIOLENCE 2014-01-08

[smoochy]

It's on the brink of something. That's for sure.

[PREM-R]

Wow, a view from the 'other side' for once. Well done webfact and thank you.

[Pib]

QuoteThe current protests were sparked in November, when the government clumsily tried to push through an amnesty bill that would have pardoned thousands of people convicted of politically related crimes between 2003 and last year.

This would have paved the way for the return of Thaksin, a deeply polarizing figure who is loved by his supporters and loathed by his enemies.

 

 

Yeap, above was definitely the fuse for the latest political bomb.   Me thinks the Thai people, even those who like Thaksin, need to forget him and move on for the betterment of the country.

 

 

[Thailand]

Not a very good article for the SuDems simply telling it like it is?

[millwall_fan]

This is the most accurate analysis of the current situation from amongst the rubble of rhetoric emanating from both sides. This article doesn't tell us where the country is going, but it clearly elucidates how it got to this situation, Everyone who contributes to this debate on ThaiVisa should read this first.

[Rob8891]

A well-written piece. It makes me wish Thailand could reform, but not Suthep's way. They need to find a way go sweep away the main protagonists and try to elect those who might engage in non-confrontational politics (at least for a while!) to give the country some time to recover from this turmoil.

But that is western-style thinking..... TiT. ?

[h90]

A well-written piece. It makes me wish Thailand could reform, but not Suthep's way. They need to find a way go sweep away the main protagonists and try to elect those who might engage in non-confrontational politics (at least for a while!) to give the country some time to recover from this turmoil.

But that is western-style thinking..... TiT. ?

you don't get fair elections without reforms first.

[bigbamboo]

This is worthy of anything Robert Amsterdam came out with. Mr. T should sign him up quick.

[waza]

Thailand on the brink

Interesting article, a mix of red rhetorid and fact.........

"The stage seems set for a showdown between anti-government forces, backed by powerful vested interests, and a flawed but democratically elected government that enjoys mass support, especially in its rural heartlands. The conflict is being waged between rival factions of the elite, but also on class, ethnic and regional fronts. Predicting the future in Thai politics is futile, but more mass protests and bloodshed on the streets seem inevitable.
Over the past two months, tens – perhaps hundreds – of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of the capital Bangkok to demand less democracy, and the overthrow of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government."

Such an even handed objective statement from this journalist and it the prelude to the unbiased approach well research and accurate political article. But enough of satire

[DocN]

Farang not know thainess....

[pumpuiman]

A refreshing relief from propaganda.

A well written, concise and level headed article.

To quote the T.V. show "Dragnet" ...."Just the facts ma'am, only the facts"

[Thaddeus]

Climate of fear

Full story: http://wagingnonviol...thailand-brink/

-- WAGGING NON VIOLENCE 2014-01-08

Written by a Red Setter then?

[pumpuiman]

Farang not know thainess....

Seems to me, Farang know Thainess very well.

[Tatsujin]

Thailand on the brink (again)

Edited January 8, 2014 by metisdead
Bold font removed.

[Sing_Sling]

A well-written piece. It makes me wish Thailand could reform, but not Suthep's way. They need to find a way go sweep away the main protagonists and try to elect those who might engage in non-confrontational politics (at least for a while!) to give the country some time to recover from this turmoil.

But that is western-style thinking..... TiT. ?

you don't get fair elections without reforms first.

You advocate destroying the democratic process, flawed as it may be, so that an unelected panel, with unlimited decision-making powers and an an open-ended timeframe, can set up 'reforms' and decide when the country is ready for democracy?

What utter nonsense.

[DocN]

Farang not know thainess....

Seems to me, Farang know Thainess very well.

I was being cynical....

[spirit47]

Dont believe he stay in BKK and when, he not going out of the house...Most is right, but the class and the mount of the Protestors are definetly wrong.

And, he not explain, why the people protests...

Nothing about Governments wrongdoing against the constitution

Nothing about corruption going worse

Nothing about the rice pledging scheme...

Nothing about the planned Trillion Bath loan

Nothing about the amnesty bill

So for me, its better than AFP, but far away from good journalism...

[philw]

Thailand on the brink

Interesting article, a mix of red rhetorid and fact.........

"The stage seems set for a showdown between anti-government forces, backed by powerful vested interests, and a flawed but democratically elected government that enjoys mass support, especially in its rural heartlands. The conflict is being waged between rival factions of the elite, but also on class, ethnic and regional fronts. Predicting the future in Thai politics is futile, but more mass protests and bloodshed on the streets seem inevitable.

Over the past two months, tens – perhaps hundreds – of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of the capital Bangkok to demand less democracy, and the overthrow of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government."

Such an even handed objective statement from this journalist and it the prelude to the unbiased approach well research and accurate political article. But enough of satire

Truth hurts.................

[mojorison]

Dont believe he stay in BKK and when, he not going out of the house...Most is right, but the class and the mount of the Protestors are definetly wrong.

And, he not explain, why the people protests...

Nothing about Governments wrongdoing against the constitution

Nothing about corruption going worse

Nothing about the rice pledging scheme...

Nothing about the planned Trillion Bath loan

Nothing about the amnesty bill

So for me, its better than AFP, but far away from good journalism... alt=rolleyes.gif pagespeed_url_hash=2070704717 width=20 height=20>

And here-in lies the problem. If you don't like it, you have an election. You don't vote for them. If enough people don't like them, they do not get to run the country. What don't you understand about this patently simple concept?

[ikke]

Well written and accurate piece in my opinion. (you should read the entire article)

It amazes me how people state/think Thaksin is THE problem.

He was not around for all coups before 2006 (17coups or attempts) so we can assume the problem is much deeper than Thaksin – as this piece explains.
Thaksin is only the excuse of the moment and the anti's

[bluie3]

I found the article very informative and feel the same - Thailand on the brink - it is different this time to the others. I was here for the 1991 event and remember Suchinda on his face before the King for being responsible for the many deaths. The yellow shirt mob were responsible for many businesses collapsing because of the airport shut down - I had a Guest House and tourists stopped coming. The red shirts had the idea that there could be FAIRNESS for ALL, not just the elite in BKK - the elite still don't understand that BKK isn't Thailand - it's just a small part of the whole which includes the north and the north east with its multi millions.

The 'brink' is nearly here when those southern provinces could easily 'break away' and even the northern provinces could be thinking the same way - I know many who talk this way in the area I live in.

I was with an Indonesia journalist when he interviewed Dr Weng at the red shirt event and was impressed with his answers to every question. The jounalist was from Tempo magazine - highly respected in Indonesia - similar to Time magazine. The theme hasn't changed, FAIRNESS to ALL.

I've followed Thai Visa for years and years but only recently decided to come out of the silent majority to speak because I have found many of the posts offensive, childish, arrogant, pitiful, hurtful, senseless, uninformed and particularly obnoxious those posts that snear at how a person looks - reptilian etc -. This forum is read by thousands and thousands so civility is to be remembered in your public comments.

On the brink and less than a week to go - I love being here and I hope I can say the same in 10 days time

[Spalpeen]

It's worth while reading the full article. The very last paragraph is a perfect summary of the real situation.

[worgeordie]

Fairness to all, its always some want more fairness,

unfortunately money and power is what seems to

motivate the wrong people the most,all say they

want to put the country first,which is just <deleted>.

regards Worgeordie

[Cricketnut]

Climate of fear

Full story: http://wagingnonviol...thailand-brink/

-- WAGGING NON VIOLENCE 2014-01-08

Written by a Red Setter then?

Does it really matter when the article looks to be balanced, pointing out both sides predicaments, not so good points and paints a real picture of what Thailand is facing..... Why does it have to be a red setter? Could it not simply be an article written from a non biased point of view (as far as humans can be unbiased) and a well informed person? Noo that could never be the case.

[aussieinthailand]

A well-written piece. It makes me wish Thailand could reform, but not Suthep's way. They need to find a way go sweep away the main protagonists and try to elect those who might engage in non-confrontational politics (at least for a while!) to give the country some time to recover from this turmoil.

But that is western-style thinking..... TiT. ?

you don't get fair elections without reforms first.

You advocate destroying the democratic process, flawed as it may be, so that an unelected panel, with unlimited decision-making powers and an an open-ended timeframe, can set up 'reforms' and decide when the country is ready for democracy?

What utter nonsense.

I believe that China did something quite similar to Suthep's style, a selected few deciding who, what, when, and were on everything, NO VOTE and decent is NOT tolerated,

and look at what they did to their last emperor, those that do not heed history are destine to repeat it.

[saltandpepper]

This is worthy of anything Robert Amsterdam came out with. Mr. T should sign him up quick.

Agreed!

[bkkfaranguy]

Very well done and exactly what many of us have been saying for awhile now! I wonder if he will get threatening emails of imprisonment or death as some of us have here from the other side.

Edited January 8, 2014 by bkkfaranguy

[bigbamboo]

I found the article very informative and feel the same - Thailand on the brink - it is different this time to the others. I was here for the 1991 event and remember Suchinda on his face before the King for being responsible for the many deaths. The yellow shirt mob were responsible for many businesses collapsing because of the airport shut down - I had a Guest House and tourists stopped coming. The red shirts had the idea that there could be FAIRNESS for ALL, not just the elite in BKK - the elite still don't understand that BKK isn't Thailand - it's just a small part of the whole which includes the north and the north east with its multi millions.

The 'brink' is nearly here when those southern provinces could easily 'break away' and even the northern provinces could be thinking the same way - I know many who talk this way in the area I live in.

I was with an Indonesia journalist when he interviewed Dr Weng at the red shirt event and was impressed with his answers to every question. The jounalist was from Tempo magazine - highly respected in Indonesia - similar to Time magazine. The theme hasn't changed, FAIRNESS to ALL.

I've followed Thai Visa for years and years but only recently decided to come out of the silent majority to speak because I have found many of the posts offensive, childish, arrogant, pitiful, hurtful, senseless, uninformed and particularly obnoxious those posts that snear at how a person looks - reptilian etc -. This forum is read by thousands and thousands so civility is to be remembered in your public comments.

On the brink and less than a week to go - I love being here and I hope I can say the same in 10 days time

I think most of us would like fairness for all but to suggest that there are eleven million 'elite' voters in Thailand who voted for the Dems last time is pushing it a bit don't you think? And judging from the double digit swing away from PTP in the election for the Bangkok governor if that were to be repeated in a national election the PTP's 4 million vote margin would be compromised even further.

The kingdom has many issues and sadly none of the current politicians have shown any indication that they have the ability to solve them. That is Thailand's dilemma.

Edited January 8, 2014 by bigbamboo

[bkkfaranguy]

I found the article very informative and feel the same - Thailand on the brink - it is different this time to the others. I was here for the 1991 event and remember Suchinda on his face before the King for being responsible for the many deaths. The yellow shirt mob were responsible for many businesses collapsing because of the airport shut down - I had a Guest House and tourists stopped coming. The red shirts had the idea that there could be FAIRNESS for ALL, not just the elite in BKK - the elite still don't understand that BKK isn't Thailand - it's just a small part of the whole which includes the north and the north east with its multi millions.

The 'brink' is nearly here when those southern provinces could easily 'break away' and even the northern provinces could be thinking the same way - I know many who talk this way in the area I live in.

I was with an Indonesia journalist when he interviewed Dr Weng at the red shirt event and was impressed with his answers to every question. The jounalist was from Tempo magazine - highly respected in Indonesia - similar to Time magazine. The theme hasn't changed, FAIRNESS to ALL.

I've followed Thai Visa for years and years but only recently decided to come out of the silent majority to speak because I have found many of the posts offensive, childish, arrogant, pitiful, hurtful, senseless, uninformed and particularly obnoxious those posts that snear at how a person looks - reptilian etc -. This forum is read by thousands and thousands so civility is to be remembered in your public comments.

On the brink and less than a week to go - I love being here and I hope I can say the same in 10 days time

I think most of us would like fairness for all but to suggest that there are eleven million 'elite' voters in Thailand who voted for the Dems last time is pushing it a bit don't you think? And judging from the double digit swing away from PTP in the election for the Bangkok governor if that were to be repeated in a national election the PTP's 4 million vote margin would be compromised even further.

The kingdom has many issues and sadly none of the current politicians have shown any indication that they have the ability to solve them. That is Thailand's dilemma.

Don't think so, I think the elections would be even more of a landslide for the North, the main thing that Suthep has done is to show the true colors of the Dems and what they really think of the people, he has only made them stronger and more determined. He has involved many people who really did not care about the elections or that did not take the time to vote, that will now go vote.