Bangkok Shutdown 'aims to involve Army'

[webfact]

ANALYSIS
Shutdown 'aims to involve Army'
PAKORN PUENGNETR
THE NATION

ANALYSTS SAY MILITARY AIMS TO PREVENT VIOLENCE, RATHER THAN STAGE A COUP

BANGKOK: -- THE BANGKOK shutdown planned for January 13 is intended to trigger military intervention in the ongoing political stalemate, security sources said yesterday.

The anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) plans to mobilise 35,000 people from seven southern provinces to shut down seven locations in the capital on Monday to paralyse Yingluck Shinawatra's caretaker administration, the sources said. They noted that some middle-class people in Bangkok might join in, but the southerners are the core of the operation.

The first phase - the first two days of the shutdown - would cause the operations not only of government agencies but also of many businesses to cease, as people might experience difficulty in travelling to work. People might be able to come out of their homes to work on Monday morning, but might not be able to return home in the evening, the sources said.

The second stage, on the third and fourth days, would see a chaotic situation develop, as people in the blockaded areas in the capital struggled to find their way in and out. The protesters themselves would be able to stay in one location for many days.

In the last stage, if the chaos lasted for more than four days, many people such as taxi drivers and street vendors who cannot earn their daily living might riot. There could also be clashes among groups of people in many locations, they said.

"If the situation develops into a riot, we have to look at how the government, the military and the PDRC would react to such a situation," a military source said.

Only the military has the manpower and equipment to handle such a situation, he said, adding that heavy military hardware has already been moved into the capital. Under the pretext of preparing for Armed Forces Day on January 18, the military has moved tanks and other heavy weaponry into the capital. The military said it would hold the parade on that date at the 11th Infantry Regiment, but the space there is too narrow for such a big parade, the source said.

However, an intelligence source said the possibility of a military coup was still not very high. The military would act as a stabiliser to maintain a balance of power in the political scene, he said. What the military will do is to prevent any parties such as police and unknown elements - ie, "men-in-black" - from using violence, the source said.

Yingluck's caretaker government will try its best not to resort to violence to handle the protest, as the government knows that violence will lead to a military intervention. The red-shirt group would not come to Bangkok to confront the protesters, he said.

The intelligence source expected that the Bangkok shutdown would last only a week and would not seriously affect business operations. Traffic might be paralysed, however, he said.

The elements that would bring Yingluck's government down are constitutionally mandated independent organisations such as the Constitutional Court and the anti-graft agency, he said, adding that these bodies tend to move slowly.


-- The Nation 2014-01-09

[Curt1591]

Shutdown 'aims to involve Army'

Ya think?

[naboo]

The elements that would bring Yingluck's

government down are constitutionally mandated

independent organisations such as the

Constitutional Court and the anti-graft agency,

he said, adding that these bodies tend to move

slowly.

So that's sorted then. Nice to know the military already know the outcome.

[Cricketnut]

This is exactly what I have have stated in a post about an hour ago, the Army cant stage a coup if the reds stay out of it and Yingluck exercises restraint, which she will do. The red think tank have so far been successful. The violence will eminate from paralysis within Bangkok and of course the Army will have to support the government and the police in maintaining law and order. Suthep looks to have arranged his own political death rites himself and thank goodness for that. Even the PDRC supporters will not put up with their livelyhoods and money being lost. Yep violence will come that is a certainty and very very unfortunate and who will be to blame? Suthep, pure and simple. I sincerely hope that he goes to Goal for all this trouble that he has created. Yes Governments make mistakes, and this obviously includes PTP on many grounds. BUT, at the end of the day they have been elected by the people. Let the courts and the elections sort this out. Suthep just wants his gravy train to carry on with thousands of Thais handing him wads of cash. Sorry, this time it is the so called elite of Bangkok and the middle class who have been duped. Bangkok is not Thailand, in fact who is Bangkoks bread and butter each day? Where does their food come from? Oh some fruit and vegies from the south? Yes, looking at the figures though, this only makes a small proportion of what sustains Bangkok. Again and again, this is a case of southerners and some sections of the Bangkok populace smashing a giant hammer against their own heads.

[MaxLee]

"The anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) plans to mobilise 35,000 people from seven southern provinces to shut down seven locations in the capital on Monday to paralyse Yingluck Shinawatra's caretaker administration, the sources said."

So does that mean the Southern Yala bombers that usually terrorize the Deep South will actually be ordered to bomb the capital??? Anyone????

Edited January 9, 2014 by MaxLee

[howzat]

Funny how Suthep was the best thing since sliced bread a few months ago and Yingluck was the wicked witch. Think they should bring Thaksin back from Dubai to sort it then we all be happy. Boring Boring and guess what even more boring.

[GreenSnapper]

So finally, the "6 million" supporters are just 35000 southeners brought in?

[Clint1965]

I doubt anyone really believes that the military hardware if for display purposes, it is there ready to stage a coup. It is almost certainly already in the pipeline. PTP should now start thinking about helicopter rental. Despite the Red shirts who are apparently hatching a contingency to whisk Yingluck to the north and establish an exiled government... Lol.

I can't see myself paying my taxes to Jatuporn and the rest of the Shin lot. Yes I am in the north, my tax will be sent down south.

[chooka]

35,000 people is this really the voice of the majority?

[JohnP1752]

Read this

"http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/2-powerful-retired-generals-behind-suthep?page=0%2C0"

Then decide if you think the military will help the government, they have been fairly open in providing arms and support to the demonstrators previously.

I see no reason why this would change, the judiciary coup is a backup to the military coup which they realise the backlash would be significant unless completely justified in their eyes.

[Bluespunk]

More scaremongering from an "intelligence source". I don't support the "shutdown", I think it's a stupid idea, however all these doomsday scenarios the govts is rolling out each day are not helping. All they are doing is creating a sense of fear, without actually doing anything to help those who will be caught up in this protest.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Bluespunk

[Thailand]

And the source of this is that internationally renowned unbiased news media outlet.

What would the content be like if they really wanted to stir it up! Not going their way at the moment?

[MaxLee]

Read this

"http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/2-powerful-retired-generals-behind-suthep?page=0%2C0"

Then decide if you think the military will help the government, they have been fairly open in providing arms and support to the demonstrators previously.

I see no reason why this would change, the judiciary coup is a backup to the military coup which they realise the backlash would be significant unless completely justified in their eyes.

The headline speaks volumes...

[Emptyset]

More scaremongering from an "intelligence source". I don't support the "shutdown", I think it's a stupid idea, however all these doomsday scenarios the govts is rolling out each day are not helping. All they are doing is creating a sense of fear, without actually doing anything to help those who will be caught up in this protest.

Why assume that The Nation is using a source close to the government? Not all intelligence sources would be pro-govt btw, and I think The Nation, given Yoon's anti-govt stance would more likely have sources that aren't necessarily close to the government. I think it might be pretty accurate. Shame there's no chance of Wikileaks to see what people are really saying behind the scenes, because that's where much of this is taking place.*

It's pretty obvious this is the eventual game plan when it comes down to it anyway, isn't it? You don't need a source to tell you that Suthep knows the only way to end this is through the military. Even if 'neutral' agencies intervene, which I'm sure they will (well, they already are) it's still hard to see how they could manufacture a complete vacuum.

Suthep's backers might be negotiating with Thaksin but I bet Thaksin would want a deal something like 'OK, we'll allow a neutral PM if you drop all charges against me'. To be honest, such a deal might not be a bad thing as I don't think the 'real' people - the masses - on either side would just accept it and they might unite in turning against both the amaat and Thaksin (OK, this is best case scenario - fantasy stuff, really) ...

Personally though I think the real violence - if it comes, which hopefully it won't - would be more likely around the time of the election. The 'shut down' isn't necessarily the end game for Suthep or his backers. It might be just keep the pressure on, keep people involved, maybe a few incidents to provoke heated emotional response amongst the followers and keep people identified with the movement.

*Still though, there's a danger of dwelling too much on this. The problem is that while what takes place behind the scenes is important, in the end, there are too many mysteries and unreliable rumours to really get a complete and accurate grasp of what's happening. Everyone is guessing, even those who're involved. This is why I don't really buy conspiracies. No one has that much control over events. Still I think the crucial point is that there really are people within the elite trying to force out the government and some of them are not beyond the sort of dirty tricks people seem to believe only Thaksin is capable of. There really isn't a 'clean' side.

And these rumours and the elite struggle shouldn't undermine what's happening on the streets and the genuine sentiments of the average person involved (on whichever side). Reminds me of this article from back in 2010:

'In this perpetual half-light, incidents happen but without any certainty, clarity, or detail. The "bombing" of General Anupong's headquarters was a classic of the genre. The first report was denial of something we did not yet know about. The second report claimed the bombing had taken place, but the physical evidence had already been totally obliterated, so there was no way to know whether this report itself was true or false. All subsequent reports became speculation on the truth or falsehood of previous reports. An infinite, inconclusive spiral. Most bomb incidents, security glitches, and other minor panics descend quickly into similar spirals. A is attacking B. No, B has staged the incident to discredit A for seeming to attack B. No, A has staged the incident to make people think that B is trying to discredit A. Round and round. Reflecting mirrors. Ad infinitum.

Smoke. Mirrors. Darkness. Fear. Fluff. Fantasy. Mystification.'

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/02/22/columnists/From-smoke-and-mirrors-to-fear-and-folly-30123119.html

(btw have listened to Hallowed Ground several times already - great album! Thanks again for the recommendation).

[Mr Yim]

Bearing in mind the apparent close ties between the Generals and Suthep, I would imagine that the reluctance of the military to carry out a coup is due to there is not full support within the military. General Prayuth Chan-ocha realises that a coup in favour of Suthep would almost certainly escalate the crisis and I suspect, that shortly after the election, he will retire with a very nice pension and be replaced by a General sympathetic to the Shiniwatras.

[boomerangutang]

The military have the biggest guns, so they're the most powerful player in the game.

The military would act as a stabiliser to maintain a balance of power in the political scene, he said.

Does this mean the military will either assist or debilitate one side or the other, if they see one side gaining the advantage? It would be like a ref at a football game, continually forcing calls which benefit one side or the other - in order to ensure that neither team wins.

What the military will do is to prevent any parties such as police and unknown elements - ie, "men-in-black" - from using violence, the source said.

It's good to hear the military will protect the people they're sworn to protect: namely; The Thai people. Sad that they have to threaten and shoot at Thai police in order to do so. Even sadder that the Shinawatre gov't can't keep the police from shooting Thai citizens (or destroying occupied vehicles while raging). Come to think of it, that's what Red Shirts did to then-PM Abhisit's vehicle - prior to the Red's 2010 commandeering of downtown Bkk.

[PREM-R]

More scaremongering from an "intelligence source". I don't support the "shutdown", I think it's a stupid idea, however all these doomsday scenarios the govts is rolling out each day are not helping. All they are doing is creating a sense of fear, without actually doing anything to help those who will be caught up in this protest.

Printed by the Nation, hardly a supporter of the government, why would they try to 'create a sense of fear', wouldn't that aid the government?

[Neeeko]

Can't they all kiss and make up?

[thaigold]

I think the Reds are playing it real kool this time. Instead of coming out and getting in open conflict with these people, they are just sitting back and letting the little man stew in his own juices. All this pompous little guy is doing is fouling his own nest --- Big fun.

[lonelyrw]

If this are the way to get Thailand to bee looked at as a lost Paradise. Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia are just waiting for the result of the outcome and to

take ower!

[Bluespunk]

More scaremongering from an "intelligence source". I don't support the "shutdown", I think it's a stupid idea, however all these doomsday scenarios the govts is rolling out each day are not helping. All they are doing is creating a sense of fear, without actually doing anything to help those who will be caught up in this protest.

Why assume that The Nation is using a source close to the government? Not all intelligence sources would be pro-govt btw, and I think The Nation, given Yoon's anti-govt stance would more likely have sources that aren't necessarily close to the government. I think it might be pretty accurate. Shame there's no chance of Wikileaks to see what people are really saying behind the scenes, because that's where much of this is taking place.*

It's pretty obvious this is the eventual game plan when it comes down to it anyway, isn't it? You don't need a source to tell you that Suthep knows the only way to end this is through the military. Even if 'neutral' agencies intervene, which I'm sure they will (well, they already are) it's still hard to see how they could manufacture a complete vacuum.

Suthep's backers might be negotiating with Thaksin but I bet Thaksin would want a deal something like 'OK, we'll allow a neutral PM if you drop all charges against me'. To be honest, such a deal might not be a bad thing as I don't think the 'real' people - the masses - on either side would just accept it and they might unite in turning against both the amaat and Thaksin (OK, this is best case scenario - fantasy stuff, really) ...

Personally though I think the real violence - if it comes, which hopefully it won't - would be more likely around the time of the election. The 'shut down' isn't necessarily the end game for Suthep or his backers. It might be just keep the pressure on, keep people involved, maybe a few incidents to provoke heated emotional response amongst the followers and keep people identified with the movement.

*Still though, there's a danger of dwelling too much on this. The problem is that while what takes place behind the scenes is important, in the end, there are too many mysteries and unreliable rumours to really get a complete and accurate grasp of what's happening. Everyone is guessing, even those who're involved. This is why I don't really buy conspiracies. No one has that much control over events. Still I think the crucial point is that there really are people within the elite trying to force out the government and some of them are not beyond the sort of dirty tricks people seem to believe only Thaksin is capable of. There really isn't a 'clean' side.

And these rumours and the elite struggle shouldn't undermine what's happening on the streets and the genuine sentiments of the average person involved (on whichever side). Reminds me of this article from back in 2010:

'In this perpetual half-light, incidents happen but without any certainty, clarity, or detail. The "bombing" of General Anupong's headquarters was a classic of the genre. The first report was denial of something we did not yet know about. The second report claimed the bombing had taken place, but the physical evidence had already been totally obliterated, so there was no way to know whether this report itself was true or false. All subsequent reports became speculation on the truth or falsehood of previous reports. An infinite, inconclusive spiral. Most bomb incidents, security glitches, and other minor panics descend quickly into similar spirals. A is attacking B. No, B has staged the incident to discredit A for seeming to attack B. No, A has staged the incident to make people think that B is trying to discredit A. Round and round. Reflecting mirrors. Ad infinitum.

Smoke. Mirrors. Darkness. Fear. Fluff. Fantasy. Mystification.'

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/02/22/columnists/From-smoke-and-mirrors-to-fear-and-folly-30123119.html

(btw have listened to Hallowed Ground several times already - great album! Thanks again for the recommendation).

I agree with you on some points, others less so but I can understand your view, even if I don't share it. My problem with this story is that it is one of a series of govt statements that have done little to reassure people that there are plans to help control this protest and procedures are in place to help people cope. They have opted for encouraging fear and finger pointing. Yes suthep is to blame for this "shutdown" but the blame game isn't going to make people's lives any easier.

(Glad you're enjoying hallowed ground, some great tracks on there)

[tingtongteesood]

Read this

"http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/2-powerful-retired-generals-behind-suthep?page=0%2C0"

Then decide if you think the military will help the government, they have been fairly open in providing arms and support to the demonstrators previously.

I see no reason why this would change, the judiciary coup is a backup to the military coup which they realise the backlash would be significant unless completely justified in their eyes.

You are saying the army has been freely giving guns to the protestors ? Let's have some evidence to back that one up please....?

[Bluespunk]

More scaremongering from an "intelligence source". I don't support the "shutdown", I think it's a stupid idea, however all these doomsday scenarios the govts is rolling out each day are not helping. All they are doing is creating a sense of fear, without actually doing anything to help those who will be caught up in this protest.

Printed by the Nation, hardly a supporter of the government, why would they try to 'create a sense of fear', wouldn't that aid the government?

Its going to sell papers. It's sensationalist. They may not be pro govt, I'm not so sure about that, but only ever read its stories on TV, but they are the press and can see a "good" story when they see it.

[kimamey]

35,000 people is this really the voice of the majority?

A stupid comment. These are people being brought in. Others are there already. I think you'll find there are more than 35,000 people opposed to the PTP government. A lot of anti government protesters probably don't agree with Suthep but some will follow him as he seems the best chance of getting rid of PTP and Thaksin. In much the same way as some who didn't like Thaksin voted for his party because they didn't like the Democrats.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[spidermike007]

The military, the police and all other security organizations need to come down very, very hard on the hooligan protestors from day one. If they do so, they might disappear within a few days. The protestors will only stay if it is easy, social, and there is no threat to life and limb. The government cannot allow them to shut down any government agencies, nor any public transportation, nor any main boulevards. Once this happens, they have stepped over the line, and must be stopped at all costs. That is the only way for Yingluck to maintain control, short of negotiating something, and I do not think Suthep has the intelligence, nor the temperament to negotiate anything that is good for the nation.

[kkerry]

If 35,000 "southerners are the core of the operation" then what happened to the "six million" people who protested in Bangkok a couple of weeks ago?

[tragickingdom]

It says a lot that they need 35000 Southerners who made an incredible mess over the last 2 decades back home to shut down Bangkok. It is time to fence off the deep south, put a few thousand volt on the fence and let them merge with the Al Qaeda sympathisers in Northern Malaysia.

It says a lot that Suthep is using recruits people who kill women and children, burn down schools and block roads in the South. The elite should be careful what they are wicking for. Suthep is a anti democrat corrupt till the bone and will never leave. He is in the league with the Pinochets and Videla's of this world.

[Cricketnut]

I doubt anyone really believes that the military hardware if for display purposes, it is there ready to stage a coup. It is almost certainly already in the pipeline. PTP should now start thinking about helicopter rental. Despite the Red shirts who are apparently hatching a contingency to whisk Yingluck to the north and establish an exiled government... Lol.

I can't see myself paying my taxes to Jatuporn and the rest of the Shin lot. Yes I am in the north, my tax will be sent down south.

Some one seems a little naive on this forum, this military hardware and parade is completed every year at the same time.... How can a coup happen if the care taker prime minister uses the up most restraint and there are no reds in town taking part. It simply cant be achieved. The only person and people who will get in strife are the innocent victims of Sutheps brainwashing and the police. Suthep wants violence but he is unlikely to get it from the reds, he will most likely incite by himself and his band of followers, plus the highly educated students.

The show is over Suthep, what was supposed to be millions doesnt look like they will turn up, though only time can tell. Let's just hope there is not too much violence or any for that matter.

[Cricketnut]

If 35,000 "southerners are the core of the operation" then what happened to the "six million" people who protested in Bangkok a couple of weeks ago?

They were not there lol, or is the media telling us another porky pie!

[rubl]

I thought the government already involved the army in it's preparations to monitor and control the anti-government protesters?