There's logic behind a July 20 election date: Thai politics

[webfact]

There's logic behind a July 20 election date
ATTAYUTH BOOTSRIPOOM

BANGKOK: -- MANY STILL speculate as to when a new election will take place, because since the Constitutional Court nullified the February 2 election, there has been no clarity on the matter and no one has been able to make the poll date certain.

Not surprisingly, the ruling Pheu Thai Party hopes the election will take place as soon as possible, and is trying to galvanise former coalition partners and small political parties that have competed before into demanding the poll take place as soon as possible, with June 15 as the suggested date.

As for the Election Commission (EC), the commissioner in charge of organising the election, Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, has proposed an optimistic date of July 20.

Why does July 20 have to be the earliest date for the election to take place? It wasn't plucked out of thin air - there's a logical explanation behind it.

The EC will meet the caretaker government to discuss the date by April 30. The process of seeking royal endorsement will also take about 20 days. From the day of the royal decree announcing a new election, it will be 60 days - and July 20 is around that date.

Somchai stressed that 60 days would be required to prepare for a new election because it would involve the printing of 100 million ballot papers and ensuring that all poll stations and officials are prepared. Time will also be needed to send ballot papers overseas and prepare for the elections outside the Kingdom.

This is an optimistic scenario under the assumption that everything will proceed smoothly - but the reality may not be ideal. We must not forget that the Democrat Party is still hesitant, seemingly not wanting to compete in a new election as it has to please the anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC). The PDRC, led by Suthep Thaugsuban, meanwhile, has explicitly declared it would obstruct the election again until it can form its own government and amend the laws under its slogan of reform before election.

If the situation is not orderly, the EC may not hold another election, citing the possibility that it would be a waste.

What's more, Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has just skipped the meeting between party leaders and the EC to set a new election date, making the likelihood of the party competing even more remote.

Although the road ahead is fraught with problems, the government is continuing to push for the earliest election date possible because it realises that its head, Yingluck Shinawatra, may be removed from power through the Constitutional Court.

In the worst-case scenario for the government, she would be removed along with the whole cabinet. This may create a political vacuum and open the way for a "neutral premier" to be appointed.

However, if a Royal Decree calling for a new election is announced, even if there's an interim administration, it will be limited by time and mandate.

The Pheu Thai Party is confident it will win a new election again, and an established election date would alleviate the concerns of its supporters. That is why there's not much defence of the Yingluck administration as it would be seen as supporting individuals, rather than establishing a campaign for a new election date.

The Pheu Thai Party seems to have accepted its fate. But if anything occurs beyond this, we may see another offensive game being played out.


-- The Nation 2014-04-24

[NongKhaiKid]

Logic behind a July 20 election. Thai logic ?

An oxymoron.

[noitom]

The Thai press states that he didn't "pluck" it out of the air. Thais pluck things out of the air all the time. So plucking this date would be typical. The Thai press states that they, the PTP, are trying to "galvanize" other parties around the election issue. Thais are always galvanizing something. Take a look at the Thai press when an incendiary incident occurs. They galvanize around the event for a few days and then drop it. You never see it again.

[MaxLee]

"There's logic behind a July 20 election date"

Yep,... a cowardice act of the Election-Collection-committee to save their sorry faces out of here, aka "Don't blame us next time when things go wrong, dear people of Thailand, have a nice day, never bother with you again."

In short, give in to Thaksin and co. and let them make a comeback with a vengeance...

Wanna bet?

[scorecard]

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"There's logic behind a July 20 election date"

Yep,... a cowardice act of the Election-Collection-committee to save their sorry faces out of here, aka "Don't blame us next time when things go wrong, dear people of Thailand, have a nice day, never bother with you again."

In short, give in to Thaksin and co. and let them make a comeback with a vengeance...

Wanna bet?

You may well be right.

Additionally, I suspect the opposition and all Thais should be very wary of dates which are being pushed hard by pt in case there is some further unmentioned motivation behind their claims.

For instance, are they demanding an early date because somehow that would bring a timing which would allow a reintroduction of the amnesty bill and other non transparent bills.

Beware.

[tezzainoz]

Can any one please tell us the actual date that the amesty bill is dead and off the table

The law says it can be reissued by the government after 180 days after being thrown back at the lower house

so what is the actual date is came back to the lower house and is it 180 day since then

[Eric Loh]

An election is logic enough. Deal with it Somchai.

[The stuttering parrot]

July the 20th gives all parties a chance to get their acts together put their cards on the table get their policies out to the people.

Deep down I think the democrats are all for it but they have aligned themselves with the peoples medium and monk and are hamstrung by their our way or the highway attitude.

The longer the dems stay aligned to sutep the weaker their leader and their party look.

And the fact that sutep or the dems have put nothing out there for anybody to scrutinise just shows that maybe they don't have a plan.

Why wait for them?

Just announce the date and go for it!

[rkidlad]

Can any one please tell us the actual date that the amesty bill is dead and off the table

The law says it can be reissued by the government after 180 days after being thrown back at the lower house

so what is the actual date is came back to the lower house and is it 180 day since then

I'm not sure of the date, but the senate rejected it back in early November (I think).

Yingluck promised she wouldn't pursue it anymore, so it should be back on the table around May.

[Bakseeda]

It seems it is also the anniversary of the day Neil Armstrong and his buddy Buzz Aldrin became the first men to walk on the moon... Pity that the Thai people cannot send the Shinewatras on the same but one way voyage... Ahh... peace in Thailand..

[PREM-R]

It seems it is also the anniversary of the day Neil Armstrong and his buddy Buzz Aldrin became the first men to walk on the moon... Pity that the Thai people cannot send the Shinewatras on the same but one way voyage... Ahh... peace in Thailand..

Pity that the Thai people cannot send the Shinawatras back to parliament on the same but one way voyage... Unobstructed elections.... Ahh... peace in Thailand..

[gabruce]

Logic behind a July 20 election. Thai logic ?

An oxymoron.

Read the article first.

Here's the logic behind naming a date. Meet government by April 30 (next week). If they agree to seek a royal (a big if since they have resisted doing so all along), I'll take their statement of it taking approx 3 weeks (20 days) as a fact. Add a couple of days and then add 60 days - presto July 20. What is illogical about that? Is the math wrong?

PS. I did notice their qualification about the possibility of protests/civil unrest preventing an election again.

PPS. They still need a solid public plan to show how to have registration and polling proceed even with opposition.

[ramrod711]

In the worst-case scenario for the government, she would be removed along with the whole cabinet. This may create a political vacuum and open the way for a "neutral premier" to be appointed.

No matter which party you support, this scenario is not the worst or the best. In PTPs case the worst would be the removal of all 308 members, I,of course, think that would be the best of all possible scenarios.

[WoopyDoo]

Although the road ahead is fraught with problems, the government is continuing to push for the earliest election date possible because it realises that its head, Yingluck Shinawatra, may be removed from power through the Constitutional Court.

No.... the PTP are pushing for earliest possible elections so that they can have as much distance between the election date and the next rice crop harvest.

Because that would see their demise in stellar fashion.

Also the Dems have absolutely no obligation to keep the PDRC happy... They have said a hundred times, they won't recognise any election that is NOT free and fair..... and so far the EC and PTP have made no signs as to wanting or even the need for free and fair elections..... just Thai style elections.

Period.

[smutcakes]

Can any one please tell us the actual date that the amesty bill is dead and off the table

The law says it can be reissued by the government after 180 days after being thrown back at the lower house

so what is the actual date is came back to the lower house and is it 180 day since then

There is no way in hell they would try the amnesty bill again! They are dim but not that dim.

[laocowboy2]

What surprises me is the apparent lack of serious discussion about what happens if (a) the government is dismissed but ( there is no election. Even with a caretaker government, we have had the BoI farce and the block on new FDI. Even though a work-around has been managed, a BoI approval does not necessarily mean that the investments will now actually take place. Moving on, there are a number of decisions which a caretaker government cannot take - which include seniot appointments in the civil service and at state-owned companies. And the budgetary year runs out at end September - which normally requires the new budget to be ready for parliamentary approval by end June. This is obviously not going to happen. So next year there may be problems with some funding needs - including for promotions in the civil service, pensions etc.

[smutcakes]

What surprises me is the apparent lack of serious discussion about what happens if (a) the government is dismissed but ( there is no election. Even with a caretaker government, we have had the BoI farce and the block on new FDI. Even though a work-around has been managed, a BoI approval does not necessarily mean that the investments will now actually take place. Moving on, there are a number of decisions which a caretaker government cannot take - which include seniot appointments in the civil service and at state-owned companies. And the budgetary year runs out at end September - which normally requires the new budget to be ready for parliamentary approval by end June. This is obviously not going to happen. So next year there may be problems with some funding needs - including for promotions in the civil service, pensions etc.

Dont worry Suthep has a plan, he just refuses to tell anyone what it is- we just have to trust him.

[JoeThePoster]

Fun with figures.

[Scamper]

The logic of the timeline articulated here is sound. July 20 would in fact be the earliest possible date. But it still doesn't seem likely. The possibility of an election any time soon is actually more remote than it was before. There are simply too many factors that have to fall into place for it to work. None of them appear to be in evidence. Pheu Thai may have been successful in dragging out the legal process, but they have been unwittingly and unintentionally successful in creating a climate that makes an election highly unlikely.

Edited April 24, 2014 by Scamper

[smedly]

Can any one please tell us the actual date that the amesty bill is dead and off the table

The law says it can be reissued by the government after 180 days after being thrown back at the lower house

so what is the actual date is came back to the lower house and is it 180 day since then

It actually doesn't matter because as we have seen time and time again if a law or rule doesn't serve the Shin agenda it will be ignored - twisted - bent - abused - changed until it does, then when challenged by the courts the red thugs will move in

[MikeThaison]

"the printing of 100 million ballot papers "

Why so many ballots for a country with nowhere near that many people that are even voting age, let alone registered/qualified to vote?

[RubbaJohnny]

"the printing of 100 million ballot papers "

Why so many ballots for a country with nowhere near that many people that are even voting age, let alone registered/qualified to vote?

How many do you wish to buy,the refereesare very flexible as the results are no way prejudiced by turnout.In fact the last election in which over 50 parties participated was annulled as the state seemd unable unwilling to prevent intimidation of candidates and electors.If peole keep voting "unsuitable' the results will be overturned.There are 3 key players and the demise renaissnece re-alignment will be crucial.

Unlike real democracies locals are considered too immature to eve discuss some of this,there is no true public respectful debate merely cash and slogans or mobs and threats.It is hard to see any better players emerging and imports are resented so I imagine it will trundle along instaed of improvement the economy will struggle in ASEAN and foreigners will be scapegoated while still required for FDi and defence procurement.Any future Sino-American war may employ the stand up guys and their lay down partners until then graft as usual,balcony jumpers ,ridiculous safety lapses and egregious corruption.