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mrbojangles

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Apologies if you dont like it in your thread but here is the latest from the bookies.....

City 86.5

Utd 81.5

Spurs 76.5

Chelsea 72.5

Arsenal 69.5

LFC 66.5

Before I get the usual - which is along the lines that 'my team's points is way too low' they are not my calculations but the bookies. My own calculations are pretty close but have City, Liverpool and Spurs marginally higher.

Liverpool are uncreative and can't score. The decent striker has just been suspended for nine matches.

My question is; Why on earth would you have them higher?

Largely to do with the fact that we have already played 4 out of 5 of our away games against the top 6 and we still have 4 out of 5 away games to play against the bottom 5.

Incidentally the suspension of Suarez has hit two historic matches plus will impact 3 future league matches. Other matches affected relate to cup competitions.

I think you put too much importance on having already played the top teams away, take these 2 scenarios :

2 teams of equal ability in mid table,

Team A plays man U (a) Chelsea (a) Spurs (a) Fulham (h) A Villa (h) West Brom (h)

Team B plays Man u (h) Chelsea (h) Spurs (h) Fulham (a) A Villa (a) West brom (a)

By your theory Team B should accumulate the most points but i'm not so sure they would, how many points do you think each team would accumulate ?

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water.

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Apologies if you dont like it in your thread but here is the latest from the bookies.....

City 86.5

Utd 81.5

Spurs 76.5

Chelsea 72.5

Arsenal 69.5

LFC 66.5

Before I get the usual - which is along the lines that 'my team's points is way too low' they are not my calculations but the bookies. My own calculations are pretty close but have City, Liverpool and Spurs marginally higher.

Liverpool are uncreative and can't score. The decent striker has just been suspended for nine matches.

My question is; Why on earth would you have them higher?

Largely to do with the fact that we have already played 4 out of 5 of our away games against the top 6 and we still have 4 out of 5 away games to play against the bottom 5.

Incidentally the suspension of Suarez has hit two historic matches plus will impact 3 future league matches. Other matches affected relate to cup competitions.

I think you put too much importance on having already played the top teams away, take these 2 scenarios :

2 teams of equal ability in mid table,

Team A plays man U (a) Chelsea (a) Spurs (a) Fulham (h) A Villa (h) West Brom (h)

Team B plays Man u (h) Chelsea (h) Spurs (h) Fulham (a) A Villa (a) West brom (a)

By your theory Team B should accumulate the most points but i'm not so sure they would, how many points do you think each team would accumulate ?

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water.

Posting nonsense once is forgivable. Posting it twice just makes you look incredibly stupid.

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Thats a fair point but you have to remember your two key players, (admittedly this is my opinion) were Suarez and Lucas.

Yes Carmine, but you should realize that the methodology I use is statistical or 'objective' rather than 'subjective'. By that I mean I tend to work out numbers without taking into account subjective measures and to the extent I am subjective 'like Chelsea will strengthen in the January window' it is based on an objective measure that Chelsea are 'inherently very rich'. I dont take into account Lucas missing, Suarez has already been out for two games but will be out for 3 more, Gerrard is back from injury and we might or might not strengthen in the January window. And to be honest when I mean higher I am forecasting 68.5 points which isnt really the difference between a win and a draw from where the bookies have us now.

More interesting, I feel is why the bookies have Spurs so low relative to Utd and City. The Utd/City discrepancy is very easy to explain. Utd have to visit City, Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea. City have only to visit Arsenal.

Spurs are actually about as well off as Utd. They have the advantage that Utd are visiting them but they must visit City, Liverpool, Everton, Sunderland and Chelsea.

The reason that Spurs are placed well behind Utd is because form goes back well beyond the beginning of this season (meaning that the second half of last season is relevant).

I would not think that Spurs fear visiting Everton too muchohmy.png

I think their visits to Bolton and QPR will be far more worrying, as both will be fighting for their lives.

Plus you missed the 'big' one.... Spurs have to visit Arsenalwink.png

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Plus you missed the 'big' one.... Spurs have to visit Arsenalwink.png

I didnt so much as miss it, as did not consider it relevant (to anyone but Arsenal) as Man U, City and Spurs must ALL visit Arsenal.

P.S. You havent won away to Everton for 4 years.

Edited by Abrak
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I think you put too much importance on having already played the top teams away, take these 2 scenarios :

2 teams of equal ability in mid table,

Team A plays man U (a) Chelsea (a) Spurs (a) Fulham (h) A Villa (h) West Brom (h)

Team B plays Man u (h) Chelsea (h) Spurs (h) Fulham (a) A Villa (a) West brom (a)

By your theory Team B should accumulate the most points but i'm not so sure they would, how many points do you think each team would accumulate ?

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water.

Posting nonsense once is forgivable. Posting it twice just makes you look incredibly stupid

.

Ok replace team A with Arsenal and team B with Liverpool , now tell me who would get the most points ? by your reckoning Liverpool should but i doubt it very much, you say stupid so put some figs to the above scenario.

Edited by alfieconn
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I think you put too much importance on having already played the top teams away, take these 2 scenarios :

2 teams of equal ability in mid table,

Team A plays man U (a) Chelsea (a) Spurs (a) Fulham (h) A Villa (h) West Brom (h)

Team B plays Man u (h) Chelsea (h) Spurs (h) Fulham (a) A Villa (a) West brom (a)

By your theory Team B should accumulate the most points but i'm not so sure they would, how many points do you think each team would accumulate ?

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water.

Posting nonsense once is forgivable. Posting it twice just makes you look incredibly stupid

.

Ok replace team A with Arsenal and team B with Liverpool , now tell me who would get the most points ? by your reckoning Liverpool should but i doubt it very much, you say stupid so put some figs to the above scenario.

At the point you insert Liverpool into a team (A) or (B) and you can insert any random team into the opposition you can pretty much assume anything you like. (Generally not losing at home except against Spurs is a good assumption though.)

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I think you put too much importance on having already played the top teams away, take these 2 scenarios :

2 teams of equal ability in mid table,

Team A plays man U (a) Chelsea (a) Spurs (a) Fulham (h) A Villa (h) West Brom (h)

Team B plays Man u (h) Chelsea (h) Spurs (h) Fulham (a) A Villa (a) West brom (a)

By your theory Team B should accumulate the most points but i'm not so sure they would, how many points do you think each team would accumulate ?

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water.

Posting nonsense once is forgivable. Posting it twice just makes you look incredibly stupid

.

Ok replace team A with Arsenal and team B with Liverpool , now tell me who would get the most points ? by your reckoning Liverpool should but i doubt it very much, you say stupid so put some figs to the above scenario.

At the point you insert Liverpool into a team (A) or (cool.png and you can insert any random team into the opposition you can pretty much assume anything you like. (Generally not losing at home except against Spurs is a good assumption though.)

Well just put some figs to the scenario !!!

Edited by alfieconn
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Plus you missed the 'big' one.... Spurs have to visit Arsenalwink.png

I didnt so much as miss it, as did not consider it relevant (to anyone but Arsenal) as Man U, City and Spurs must ALL visit Arsenal.

P.S. You havent won away to Everton for 4 years.

We have never had a team as good as now, and Everton are not as good at home this year as previous years. Sh#t if Bolton and QPR can beat Everton away, I am sure neither City or Spurs will be exactly bricking it!!

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Well just put some figs to the scenario !!!

Ok....

Once upon a time there were three teams....

There was the magical City that had gone a whole calendar year and only dropped 2 points at home in the league.

There was the old whiskey soaked club United who had dropped two points at home in the previous season.

And there was the evil bitch called Spurs who had lost won game at home this season and one game at home in the previous season.

Now in the games to come (which were as a remarkable coincidence a complete opposite of the games that had taken place) magical city played whiskey soaked Utd and evil bitch at home and took the usual 6 points.

Whiskey managed a draw out of the evil bitch. So we ended up 6-1-1. Which makes magical City the winner.

Of course really what makes City magical in the first place is that they visited the evil bitch and screwed her rotten and shoved a bottle of whiskey up Fergie's own arse both of which dont happen very often. Anyway enough fairy tales.

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Plus you missed the 'big' one.... Spurs have to visit Arsenalwink.png

I didnt so much as miss it, as did not consider it relevant (to anyone but Arsenal) as Man U, City and Spurs must ALL visit Arsenal.

P.S. You havent won away to Everton for 4 years.

We have never had a team as good as now, and Everton are not as good at home this year as previous years. Sh#t if Bolton and QPR can beat Everton away, I am sure neither City or Spurs will be exactly bricking it!!

To be honest every match is in cry baby land....

they are going to be tough as they want to avoid relegation

another defeat and they will be flirting with relegation

if they win they could be looking at europe

if they dont win the euro could collapse

if they win Owen Coyle could be the manager

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Well just put some figs to the scenario !!!

Ok....

Once upon a time there were three teams....

There was the magical City that had gone a whole calendar year and only dropped 2 points at home in the league.

There was the old whiskey soaked club United who had dropped two points at home in the previous season.

And there was the evil bitch called Spurs who had lost won game at home this season and one game at home in the previous season.

Now in the games to come (which were as a remarkable coincidence a complete opposite of the games that had taken place) magical city played whiskey soaked Utd and evil bitch at home and took the usual 6 points.

Whiskey managed a draw out of the evil bitch. So we ended up 6-1-1. Which makes magical City the winner.

Of course really what makes City magical in the first place is that they visited the evil bitch and screwed her rotten and shoved a bottle of whiskey up Fergie's own arse both of which dont happen very often. Anyway enough fairy tales.

We're not a bitch Abrak...we're a breath of fresh air.

Edit: Good post nonetheless! biggrin.png

Edited by smokie36
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Well just put some figs to the scenario !!!

Ok....

Once upon a time there were three teams....

There was the magical City that had gone a whole calendar year and only dropped 2 points at home in the league.

There was the old whiskey soaked club United who had dropped two points at home in the previous season.

And there was the evil bitch called Spurs who had lost won game at home this season and one game at home in the previous season.

Now in the games to come (which were as a remarkable coincidence a complete opposite of the games that had taken place) magical city played whiskey soaked Utd and evil bitch at home and took the usual 6 points.

Whiskey managed a draw out of the evil bitch. So we ended up 6-1-1. Which makes magical City the winner.

Of course really what makes City magical in the first place is that they visited the evil bitch and screwed her rotten and shoved a bottle of whiskey up Fergie's own arse both of which dont happen very often. Anyway enough fairy tales.

OK you obviously don't want to put any predictions on my 2 scenarios 40.gif so i will make it simple for you,take this scenario, Liverpool need to 3 points to get into the Europa Leage and have 2 games left one at home and one away, would you rather have Man city at home and Wigan away or Man City away and Wigan at home 4.gif

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Well just put some figs to the scenario !!!

Ok....

Once upon a time there were three teams....

There was the magical City that had gone a whole calendar year and only dropped 2 points at home in the league.

There was the old whiskey soaked club United who had dropped two points at home in the previous season.

And there was the evil bitch called Spurs who had lost won game at home this season and one game at home in the previous season.

Now in the games to come (which were as a remarkable coincidence a complete opposite of the games that had taken place) magical city played whiskey soaked Utd and evil bitch at home and took the usual 6 points.

Whiskey managed a draw out of the evil bitch. So we ended up 6-1-1. Which makes magical City the winner.

Of course really what makes City magical in the first place is that they visited the evil bitch and screwed her rotten and shoved a bottle of whiskey up Fergie's own arse both of which dont happen very often. Anyway enough fairy tales.

Yeah but judging by Liverpools home record the're not a patch on any of them teams 24.gif

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Apologies if you dont like it in your thread but here is the latest from the bookies.....

City 86.5

Utd 81.5

Spurs 76.5

Chelsea 72.5

Arsenal 69.5

LFC 66.5

Before I get the usual - which is along the lines that 'my team's points is way too low' they are not my calculations but the bookies. My own calculations are pretty close but have City, Liverpool and Spurs marginally higher.

Liverpool are uncreative and can't score. The decent striker has just been suspended for nine matches.

My question is; Why on earth would you have them higher?

Largely to do with the fact that we have already played 4 out of 5 of our away games against the top 6 and we still have 4 out of 5 away games to play against the bottom 5.

Incidentally the suspension of Suarez has hit two historic matches plus will impact 3 future league matches. Other matches affected relate to cup competitions.

Therefore you're not guarantead to win any of them 8 games 22.gif

Edited by alfieconn
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I think you put too much importance on having already played the top teams away, take these 2 scenarios :

2 teams of equal ability in mid table,

Team A plays man U (a) Chelsea (a) Spurs (a) Fulham (h) A Villa (h) West Brom (h)

Team B plays Man u (h) Chelsea (h) Spurs (h) Fulham (a) A Villa (a) West brom (a)

By your theory Team B should accumulate the most points but i'm not so sure they would, how many points do you think each team would accumulate ?

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water.

Posting nonsense once is forgivable. Posting it twice just makes you look incredibly stupid

.

Ok replace team A with Arsenal and team B with Liverpool , now tell me who would get the most points ? by your reckoning Liverpool should but i doubt it very much, you say stupid so put some figs to the above scenario.

Come on Abrak, by not putting predictions on these games i get the feeling you might be struggling with your argument, come on it's all lighthearted stuff and a bit of a laugh so please play the game 45.gif

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I think you put too much importance on having already played the top teams away, take these 2 scenarios :

2 teams of equal ability in mid table,

Team A plays man U (a) Chelsea (a) Spurs (a) Fulham (h) A Villa (h) West Brom (h)

Team B plays Man u (h) Chelsea (h) Spurs (h) Fulham (a) A Villa (a) West brom (a)

By your theory Team B should accumulate the most points but i'm not so sure they would, how many points do you think each team would accumulate ?

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water.

Posting nonsense once is forgivable. Posting it twice just makes you look incredibly stupid

.

Ok replace team A with Arsenal and team B with Liverpool , now tell me who would get the most points ? by your reckoning Liverpool should but i doubt it very much, you say stupid so put some figs to the above scenario.

Come on Abrak, by not putting predictions on these games i get the feeling you might be struggling with your argument, come on it's all lighthearted stuff and a bit of a laugh so please play the game 45.gif

I give most importance to the home and away results against the top clubs because there is the most deviation in results between the home and away performances. A top club will typically win or draw its home game against another top club and lose or draw its away game.

Against a lower ranked club there tends to be considerably less divergence of result because the top club will typically win both sides of the encounter (or win/draw the away match).

The encounter between the top sides is doubly important when it is head to head because if one club wins and gets 3 points it also ensures its close rival scores zero. So if we simply take the remaining City, Utd and Spurs head to head matches and assume that they go to form and that the home side wins, you will find that the combined points from the seasons head to heads are City 12, Utd, 3 and Spurs 3. That is a 9 point advantage that both United and Spurs will find very hard to make up elsewhere in the League.

If you think about it, it really is asking a lot to beat a team as consistently good as City if you give them 6 points lead in the head to head. Of course all this changes if Spurs or United can go to Eastlands and beat City but form suggests this is a lot harder than avoiding losing to them at home in the first place.

The other side to valuing City's points gained by playing away games against the top 6 so highly is that Utd's points (and to a lesser extent) Spurs points which have been accrued largely with home fixtures against the top six are not so valuable.

Oh I see maybe you were on a different subject.

If you were a top ranked team Team B fixtures would get you most points generally

If you were a bottom ranked team Team A fixtures would get you most points generally

Its probably more of a toss up for the median team and given that the median team only usually accumulates about 18 points against the top half of the league I think that 7 points is optimistic on either count. Anyway if your point is that what I am saying about City doesnt apply to Bolton then you are obviously correct. But it would be easier to simply say 'what you are saying about City wouldnt apply to a team like Bolton - in fact the opposite would be true'. But you carry on anyways.

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My dear Abrak, could you break all that down to a couple of sentences for me?

Ok. For Spurs to stand a realistic chance of winning the League, they have to win against City at Eastlands.

P.S. And Spurs dont have anything else to worry about. You can play as badly as you did in the second half of last season and you will still qualify for CL.

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My dear Abrak, could you break all that down to a couple of sentences for me?

Ok. For Spurs to stand a realistic chance of winning the League, they have to win against City at Eastlands.

P.S. And Spurs dont have anything else to worry about. You can play as badly as you did in the second half of last season and you will still qualify for CL.

With full team that includes King and Parker, Lennon aswell on the right i really think we can. I'm not making any excuses in advance but i'm pretty sure he would have played Parker and Sandro holding midfield in a perfect world. Fingers crossed Parker will be fit to play.

I definately think we can win and we'll go for it.

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My dear Abrak, could you break all that down to a couple of sentences for me?

Ok. For Spurs to stand a realistic chance of winning the League, they have to win against City at Eastlands.

P.S. And Spurs dont have anything else to worry about. You can play as badly as you did in the second half of last season and you will still qualify for CL.

With full team that includes King and Parker, Lennon aswell on the right i really think we can. I'm not making any excuses in advance but i'm pretty sure he would have played Parker and Sandro holding midfield in a perfect world. Fingers crossed Parker will be fit to play.

I definately think we can win and we'll go for it.

Thats the reason I dont think you will win. Spurs play nice attractive football, wanting to attack... which plays into Citys hands. I think we are by far the best counter attacking team in the League.

The teams we have struggled against are those who defend for their lives and put 11 men behind the ball/and we have an off day (West Brom/ Sunderland) or are extremely well organised and potent offensively (Napoli and Bayern)

I dont think Spurs offer enough going forward AND they will be without Ade!!

But we will see!! Anything can happen

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My dear Abrak, could you break all that down to a couple of sentences for me?

Ok. For Spurs to stand a realistic chance of winning the League, they have to win against City at Eastlands.

P.S. And Spurs dont have anything else to worry about. You can play as badly as you did in the second half of last season and you will still qualify for CL.

With full team that includes King and Parker, Lennon aswell on the right i really think we can. I'm not making any excuses in advance but i'm pretty sure he would have played Parker and Sandro holding midfield in a perfect world. Fingers crossed Parker will be fit to play.

I definately think we can win and we'll go for it.

Thats the reason I dont think you will win. Spurs play nice attractive football, wanting to attack... which plays into Citys hands. I think we are by far the best counter attacking team in the League.

The teams we have struggled against are those who defend for their lives and put 11 men behind the ball/and we have an off day (West Brom/ Sunderland) or are extremely well organised and potent offensively (Napoli and Bayern)

I dont think Spurs offer enough going forward AND they will be without Ade!!

But we will see!! Anything can happen

I agree with you on all of that. I think i'm just hopeful and optimistic. The best chance of us winning would have been to play a 4-2-3-1 with Parker and Sandro sitting infront of the cb's to give them time and break down attacks. I'm worried we'll be too open and as you say City are superb on the break.

Either way i'm expecting a great game of football.

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Oh I see maybe you were on a different subject.

If you were a top ranked team Team B fixtures would get you most points generally

If you were a bottom ranked team Team A fixtures would get you most points generally

.

No no, we were on the exactly same subject just that my comments were minus the waffle

So with this comment

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water

i wasn't too far away, so not too bad for someone so stupid.

Still can't understand why you wouldn't put some numbers to the predictions but you obviously have your reasons 3.gif

Edited by alfieconn
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Oh I see maybe you were on a different subject.

If you were a top ranked team Team B fixtures would get you most points generally

If you were a bottom ranked team Team A fixtures would get you most points generally

.

No no, we were on the exactly same subject just that my comments were minus the waffle

So with this comment

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water

i wasn't too far away, so not too bad for someone so stupid.biggrin.png

Still can't understand why you wouldn't put some numbers to the predictions but you obviously have your reasons 3.gif

Will you two stop bickering!! You're as bad as jimbo and MrB

Edited by carmine
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Oh I see maybe you were on a different subject.

If you were a top ranked team Team B fixtures would get you most points generally

If you were a bottom ranked team Team A fixtures would get you most points generally

.

No no, we were on the exactly same subject just that my comments were minus the waffle

So with this comment

For me team A 7 points, team B 5-7 points thus blowing your theory out of the water

i wasn't too far away, so not too bad for someone so stupid.biggrin.png

Still can't understand why you wouldn't put some numbers to the predictions but you obviously have your reasons 3.gif

Will you two stop bickering!! You're as bad as jimbo and MrB

But he called me stupid 20.gif

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Still can't understand why you wouldn't put some numbers to the predictions but you obviously have your reasons 3.gif

The inherent logic of my argument is this.

During half a season a team typically plays every other team in the division once. Therefore the corollary of say City NOT having the most difficult 'away' games is that it must face it most difficult 'home' games. The same applies to United that faces its most difficult 'away' games, it must face its most easy home games.

However for the very top teams all 'home' games are easy (in that they tend to win them all) and so what differentiates them is their away games. For the bottom teams, the opposite is true, all away games are essentially impossible and what differentiates them is their home games.

I dont like to forecast numbers for the median club, because the median club tends to be unpredictable in a reasonably unpredictable sport. If you take a club like Liverpool that is 6th, it has failed to beat Blackburn, Swansea and Norwich at home which is a sign that they are not a top 4 side. They have however beaten Chelsea and Arsenal away which shows they are better than an average side.

If you look at the first half of the season you can see that City have 2.2 ppg against the top 7 and 2.5 ppg against the bottom 13, Utd 1.8/2.6, Spurs 1.3/2.6 BUT Liverpool are 1.8/1.8. Essentially when you arrive close or at median ranking teams you get unacceptable levels of predictability that makes prediction rather futile.

Edited by Abrak
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Still can't understand why you wouldn't put some numbers to the predictions but you obviously have your reasons 3.gif

The inherent logic of my argument is this.

During half a season a team typically plays every other team in the division once. Therefore the corollary of say City NOT having the most difficult 'away' games is that it must face it most difficult 'home' games. The same applies to United that faces its most difficult 'away' games, it must face its most easy home games.

However for the very top teams all 'home' games are easy (in that they tend to win them all) and so what differentiates them is their away games. For the bottom teams, the opposite is true, all away games are essentially impossible and what differentiates them is their home games.

I dont like to forecast numbers for the median club, because the median club tends to be unpredictable in a reasonably unpredictable sport. If you take a club like Liverpool that is 6th, it has failed to beat Blackburn, Swansea and Norwich at home which is a sign that they are not a top 4 side. They have however beaten Chelsea and Arsenal away which shows they are better than an average side.

If you look at the first half of the season you can see that City have 2.2 ppg against the top 7 and 2.5 ppg against the bottom 13, Utd 1.8/2.6, Spurs 1.3/2.6 BUT Liverpool are 1.8/1.8. Essentially when you arrive close or at median ranking teams you get unacceptable levels of predictability that makes prediction rather futile.

Hello mate. Could you break this down into a couple of sentences for me? smile.png

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Still can't understand why you wouldn't put some numbers to the predictions but you obviously have your reasons 3.gif

The inherent logic of my argument is this.

During half a season a team typically plays every other team in the division once. Therefore the corollary of say City NOT having the most difficult 'away' games is that it must face it most difficult 'home' games. The same applies to United that faces its most difficult 'away' games, it must face its most easy home games.

However for the very top teams all 'home' games are easy (in that they tend to win them all) and so what differentiates them is their away games. For the bottom teams, the opposite is true, all away games are essentially impossible and what differentiates them is their home games.

I dont like to forecast numbers for the median club, because the median club tends to be unpredictable in a reasonably unpredictable sport. If you take a club like Liverpool that is 6th, it has failed to beat Blackburn, Swansea and Norwich at home which is a sign that they are not a top 4 side. They have however beaten Chelsea and Arsenal away which shows they are better than an average side.

If you look at the first half of the season you can see that City have 2.2 ppg against the top 7 and 2.5 ppg against the bottom 13, Utd 1.8/2.6, Spurs 1.3/2.6 BUT Liverpool are 1.8/1.8. Essentially when you arrive close or at median ranking teams you get unacceptable levels of predictability that makes prediction rather futile.

Gobbledygook

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