IMF sees slower growth for ASEAN

BANGKOK: -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts slower growth in ASEAN’s five largest economies this year on back of an expected slowdown in China, The Brunei Times reported, citing the IMF.

In its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, the IMF reduced the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) growth projections by 0.2 per cent in 2015 to 5.2 per cent, in comparison to 5.4 per cent in their October 2014 update.

The IMF also projected the ASEAN-5 economies to expand 5.3 per cent in 2016, 0.1 per cent lower than the 5.4 per cent forecast issued last October 2014.

IMF’s research department director Olivier Blanchard said a slower growth in China will hurt its key trading partners, especially in Asia.

China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner since 2009. Based on ASEAN statistics, the two-way trade volume reached US$350.5 billion in 2013, accounting for 14 per cent of ASEAN’s total trade.

Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, the weakest annual expansion in 24 years. IMF forecast China’s growth to ease further this year at 6.8 per cent, owing to poor export growth and weaker real estate sector.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/imf-sees-slower-growth-asean


-- Thai PBS 2015-01-21

Putting this into perspective. Asean growth of 5.3% dwarfs the UK's 3.1%

Just a week ago Gen. Prayuth’s deputy prime minister in charge of the economy Pridiyathorn said exports had "stabilised" and the government had “already factored the uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery into its economic forecast.” Really! Pridiyathorn said “the export sector will expand by around 2 per cent this year ... A GDP expansion of 4 per cent in 2015 is definitely achievable.”

I guess IMF didn’t get his memo.

The Junta has doubled down on exports to China and Russia to save the Thai export economy. With Russia’s ruble collapse – forget about it. Now China’s economy is predicted to contract in 2015 by another 10% following slower growth in 2014 – forget about it!

Just a week ago Gen. Prayuth’s deputy prime minister in charge of the economy Pridiyathorn said exports had "stabilised" and the government had “already factored the uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery into its economic forecast.” Really! Pridiyathorn said “the export sector will expand by around 2 per cent this year ... A GDP expansion of 4 per cent in 2015 is definitely achievable.”

I guess IMF didn’t get his memo.

The Junta has doubled down on exports to China and Russia to save the Thai export economy. With Russia’s ruble collapse – forget about it. Now China’s economy is predicted to contract in 2015 by another 10% following slower growth in 2014 – forget about it!

Absolutely! If only we still had the Yingluck government with it's briljant overseas thinker.

Anyway, as things are a wee bit slower to reach Thailand I expect updates from the government in two weeks or so.

IMF propaganda... Yes, China is slowing, but how is the EU doing considering they are about to announce 50 billion Euro per month QE....

IMF propaganda... Yes, China is slowing, but how is the EU doing considering they are about to announce 50 billion Euro per month QE....

All GDP is a fiction anyway, including by definition all the money the state cares to print deficit spend along with whatever they care to value the underground trade at.

The IMF is always the last to the party, and will be again with their SDRs when this currency war is over.