Dont you think this is a bad time to invest in Thailand

[ronthai]

PAST, PRESENT, FUTURE

ALWAYS A BAD TIME

[Thomas Hannah]

One never knows when the best time to buy really is. I've had a condo for almost 14 years and it hasn't gone up much at all. Yet they keep building and building and building, so somebody must be buying, right?

I've been saying for years that there will be a glut and the market will soften, but that hasn't happened yet. However with all of the building, property prices have remained stagnant for existing properties like mine.

There are also other issues as well to be concerned about here, without getting specific, because that isn't allowed here, but I'm sure everyone around knows to what I refer.

So always take your best shot. But don't expect to get rich on it.

If you want to live here then buy a home you like and enjoy it.

You bought with the right idea,Many years ago.To live in, more than an investment,And it was cheap.So even though you have not seen a big increase,You have saved on renting.Todays market,is a different matter.To many people compare how investments work in the western world,regarding how house prices have increased,Its all about demand.Thailand investments will not increase very much.More likly to depreciate.The farang numbers are dropping.We all know why there building.with the idea that laws will change.I myself think thailand is a timebomb.This is the reason that i do not live there anymore.And it becomes more and more expencive every year.Even in pattaya.The Russians were buying ,But now even they are stopping.There is a lot of property to buy,But no customers.

[hhgz]

I moved to Bangkok in July, 2004. Throughout, there were always some people think it's always a bad time to invest in Thailand. Put on your Big Boy Pants.

Edited February 5, 2015 by hhgz

[Nowisee]

I think its a bad time. I think the building here is of build it and they will come attitude more than there is some catalyst driving people here.
Or, at the very least, hope on asean bringing something to the table for thailand... hope is not a good investment strategy.

Personally, I will never invest in any asian market, stock or property. The disclosure laws are too open and lose and lying seems to be a game they are better at than I am.

The rental property in CM is increasing in certain areas, this is driving people to the outer areas to pay less. The reason many people come here is because it was much cheaper than home country... when that is (and in many cases it is) no longer the case, people simply move on to the next place.

The owners of these properties will either have to lower their prices or, as most greedy people do, stay firm on their price and not have any tenants.

It's not a dramatic effect, rather it takes time... it's that very reason people hang on to their investments until they finally realize its dead... usually too late to recover.
Like the frog in hot water analogy.

I stay very liquid in this country. Other than the motorcycle, everything is rented and when I need to, I just leave. No emotional attachments.

In the mean time, I am saving money living here. When the time comes, I will move back to home country, find a nice rural place and enjoy.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Nowisee

[StasD]

buy gold or yuan

[tsigane]

Are you stupid.If there was anything available to invest in.It would not be available.I have seen idiots for many years,loose all there money,Because they think that they are cleverer than the person before. Listened to there bragging,about what they are going to do .And how others made mistakes.6 months later,someone else in same place talking the same.People established for many years.Will tell you.They only get along to stay in thailand.But its not a big earner,just tick over.And it gives them something to do.Do your research,Thailand is a timebomb.

What an ignorant post! I reckon you're the stupid one, you can't even spell lose! I bought a house here 2 years ago and its value has increased nicely, although I will probably never realize the profit as I intend to stay. As someone else on here mentioned, the important thing is not to put all of your eggs in one basket and imo not to invest in areas that you're not familiar with (both financial and geographical) and never to listen to the likes of Thomas Hannah!

This is interesting. I haven't seen prices of RE go up in the last 2 years, which does not mean they haven't. However, you can't legally own a house in TH. So whatever you did (company, gf, wife, friend) is of questionable investment value.

There are people who have made a lot of money in Thailand. But, from what I can see, the playing field is not level and you're facing an uphill battle with your investments here. For every guy who actually made some money in Thailand, there are tens if not hundreds who lost of of their life savings here.

Someone said it nicely. In order to make little money in Thailand, you need to bring a LOT of money in.

[Naam]

Are you stupid.If there was anything available to invest in.It would not be available.I have seen idiots for many years,loose all there money,Because they think that they are cleverer than the person before. Listened to there bragging,about what they are going to do .And how others made mistakes.6 months later,someone else in same place talking the same.People established for many years.Will tell you.They only get along to stay in thailand.But its not a big earner,just tick over.And it gives them something to do.Do your research,Thailand is a timebomb.

What an ignorant post! I reckon you're the stupid one, you can't even spell lose! I bought a house here 2 years ago and its value has increased nicely, although I will probably never realize the profit as I intend to stay. As someone else on here mentioned, the important thing is not to put all of your eggs in one basket and imo not to invest in areas that you're not familiar with (both financial and geographical) and never to listen to the likes of Thomas Hannah!

Yes,Your the clever one.Bought in the last 2 years.When they cant sell property.And on paper,Its worth more.Who says its worth more.Seems ,ive hit on a touchy topic with you.You think that i have not lived in thailand.Listend to people for many years ,telling me how much there property is worth.Strange,that when they have had to sell.There reason is ,I took a much lower price,for a quick sale.I rented a 3.bedroom 4 bathroom house in chiang mai for 70.000 a year.Can get a nice place in pattaya,For 10.000 a month just 20 mins out side of town,So you have bought your house on a 30 year lease of the land.If it was newAnd you are stuck there..For you to attack me.You must be one of those braggers.I hope people are not stupid to listen to you.

for 10k/month you can get what i call a "shack" in the vicinity of Pattaya and the same applies in my [not so] humble opinion to the 70k/year house you rented in Chiang Mai

but then... to each his own

[IMA_FARANG]

In comparison Thailand is relatively stable compared to other Asian economies.

That does not mean it is a good place to invest, compared to the other choices near by.

Malysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia are jokes.

Thailand, by comparison, is less of a joke.

Not that i have any "money" to invest, but if i did it wouldn't be in Southeast Asia.

And that includes Thailand ..... but presently of all Southeast Asia countries, Thailand is less of a joke than it's neighbores in the region.

With the possible exemption of Vietnam.

[nithisa78]

it has never been time to invest in thailand, and it never will be. take it from me, dont put 1 baht into this dump. the land of smiling scammers from the moment you arrive at the airport to the moment you leave.

How much she get you for ?

Sounds like the entire backbone. If there ever was one.

Edited February 6, 2015 by nithisa78

[GAS]

Lots of signs of slowing here, inventory for some stuff we import not moving, other stuff still selling, but it is the upper end of the market. It has held up for years and showed no signs of slowing and always baffled me but TIT and things are different here. In the US we have a total zombie economy but the cracks are showing again....everything was just papered over since 2008...Radio Shack just filed BK today, Guitar Center not far behind and the rest of the big box retail after that.

I am tempted to buy another condo in my building, they are cheap, and BTS construction starts in a few months, but the RE bubble here HAS to pop soon, it is just stupid, way over built and massive inventory...but again TIT so maybe people will hold out.

I do know Bangkok is moving on, the mass transit is moving ahead like crazy, the younger population are traveling abroad and are growing intellectually, the opportunity for growth here is still great with few barriers to start a business, that all looks bright to me compared to the west.

There are some serious speedbumps ahead that we can all see in the next couple years but long term I am putting my money on Bangkok becoming much more affluent and some good opportunities to make money and invest.

[fletchsmile]

Look at all the threads on GBP vs THB, USD v THB, EUR vs THB, AUD vs THB, where people get in trouble because they've no assets/investments/income streams here.

If you're going to be here long term, the better question is can you afford not to invest?

If you're planning to spend a long term here, it makes sense to me to invest. That said, no need to rush in. Take your time and invest gradually over time.

My top 3 investments:

1. Wife and kids - can't put a price on those

2. Thai equity funds - particularly LTFs - have done very well last 15 years = ball park 1,000%+

3. Family home - great having your own place, and knowing you/your family have a real home and the security it provides in case something happens to you. Also fixes your expenses. Don't know what it would sell for now. Do know if we had to buy another it would cost more, particularly in GBP terms.

As for the people who say don't invest in Thailand blah blah blah.... I also used to listen to these "experts" when I first arrived. As time went by, a few of the things I realised:

- Many weren't really experts at all. Just repeating mantras, bar stories etc. Often they just wanted to sound knowledgeable by repeating what others said - who often didn't know much either

- Years later they hadn't learnt much more, and still had the same level of "expertise" or left

- Many of them wouldn't make successful investors, wherever they want and whatever they did.

- A few had been scammed and one way or another had been hard done by/ been unlucky. More might have done better not coming to Thailand, or taking things slower, or investing in similar ways they would have done back where they came from, or with the big head instead of the little head

So no, not a bad time if you're here for the long term. Take your time though, we're not in a situation where it's a once in a lifetime all or nothing scenario.

Cheers

Fletch

[chiang mai]

+ 1 zillion, and then some.

[GAS]

Great post Fletch. If I listened to all the TV naysayers I would not be where I am today. I am pretty bearish and probably overly cautious but I understand you need to accept certain levels of risk.

One thing I forgot to mention in my previous post is the very noticeable lack of people I am seeing in bars and restaurants in my area, much quieter than just 6-8 months ago. This may just be my area of Bangkok but it is *very* noticeable and slightly worrying. I do know that many Thais are maxed out on cc debt.

[ldnguy]

If you don't know whether now is a good or bad time to invest then I guess you shouldn't be investing. Good investments can be made in good and bad times. Investments in bad times are sometimes the best, as prices are depressed. It also depends on your timeframe. Now might be a bad time to invest if you plan to cash in within a few months but could be a great time if your timeframe is a decade. You don't give enough information for a sensible answer.

[ldnguy]

One never knows when the best time to buy really is. I've had a condo for almost 14 years and it hasn't gone up much at all. Yet they keep building and building and building, so somebody must be buying, right?

I've been saying for years that there will be a glut and the market will soften, but that hasn't happened yet. However with all of the building, property prices have remained stagnant for existing properties like mine.

There are also other issues as well to be concerned about here, without getting specific, because that isn't allowed here, but I'm sure everyone around knows to what I refer.

So always take your best shot. But don't expect to get rich on it.

If you want to live here then buy a home you like and enjoy it.

If your condo hasn't gone up in price in 14 years, you either overpaid or bought in the wrong area. Many condos in Thailand have doubled or more in that time. Where did you buy? And what did you pay?

[ldnguy]

Better to invest your money in a country where locals and visitors get same treatment

I don't see how that would be a better investment. You need to judge risk and reward not worry about treatment of locals and visitors.

[ldnguy]

Lots of signs of slowing here, inventory for some stuff we import not moving, other stuff still selling, but it is the upper end of the market. It has held up for years and showed no signs of slowing and always baffled me but TIT and things are different here. In the US we have a total zombie economy but the cracks are showing again....everything was just papered over since 2008...Radio Shack just filed BK today, Guitar Center not far behind and the rest of the big box retail after that.

I am tempted to buy another condo in my building, they are cheap, and BTS construction starts in a few months, but the RE bubble here HAS to pop soon, it is just stupid, way over built and massive inventory...but again TIT so maybe people will hold out.

I do know Bangkok is moving on, the mass transit is moving ahead like crazy, the younger population are traveling abroad and are growing intellectually, the opportunity for growth here is still great with few barriers to start a business, that all looks bright to me compared to the west.

There are some serious speedbumps ahead that we can all see in the next couple years but long term I am putting my money on Bangkok becoming much more affluent and some good opportunities to make money and invest.

I think many on this forum judge the country depending on what girl they picked up a bar. They overlook things like improving infrastructure, more Thai people wanting to live in condos, etc. Condo market seems over-built to me at the moment, but long-term I think you'll get great returns if you buy in a good location. Prices are up in the best locations an those areas are still improving. I think it's madness to think that condo prices will stay the same for decades, like some thing. Looking forward 20 years I'd expect prices to double or triple. Think how much Bangkok has changed in the last 20 years and how much more it could change. These are massive changes and will benefit property. Same in other areas. Many towns have lots of development going on. Thailand gets better all the time, although many fail to see this because they expect changes to happen in a year or two.

Plenty of great investment opportunities in Thailand for those that know how to take them. Most on here have no idea. Are there better opportunities in other countries? I'm sure there are. But it depends on where you're based, your timeframe and your risk profile. Many on here are so naive that they just see an investment as good or bad. Or they think an investment is buying a cheap condo in On Nut.

In the last condo building I rented in, condos sell for 7m. They were 4-5m when new in around 2008. So that's a decent increase. Building is full and condos sell fairly quickly. Good buildings have a normal property market.

I will likely buy in the next 1-3 years but for myself not for investment. I still expect the price will rise over the years, but if it doesn't it won't matter. It will be my home.

I also plan some property investment in another town that I will research properly later this year. I'm pretty sure it will work out based on what I've seen.

Bottom line is that there are always opportunities everywhere. Even in a war zone you can find opportunities. The problem for most people is that they are just too scared to take opportunities that are staring them right in their face. They get paralyzed with fear and won't invest. I know someone that got offered an amazing condo in London for £350K in 2008. They liked the condo but were too worried about prices dropping. That exact condo just sold for £800K. They had the chance but aid no. Someone else said yes and made £450K. At the time the vast majority claimed it was impossible to make money in UK property.

[ldnguy]

I think its a bad time. I think the building here is of build it and they will come attitude more than there is some catalyst driving people here.

Or, at the very least, hope on asean bringing something to the table for thailand... hope is not a good investment strategy.

Personally, I will never invest in any asian market, stock or property. The disclosure laws are too open and lose and lying seems to be a game they are better at than I am.

The rental property in CM is increasing in certain areas, this is driving people to the outer areas to pay less. The reason many people come here is because it was much cheaper than home country... when that is (and in many cases it is) no longer the case, people simply move on to the next place.

The owners of these properties will either have to lower their prices or, as most greedy people do, stay firm on their price and not have any tenants.

It's not a dramatic effect, rather it takes time... it's that very reason people hang on to their investments until they finally realize its dead... usually too late to recover.

Like the frog in hot water analogy.

I stay very liquid in this country. Other than the motorcycle, everything is rented and when I need to, I just leave. No emotional attachments.

In the mean time, I am saving money living here. When the time comes, I will move back to home country, find a nice rural place and enjoy.

If it suits you, great. But for me this is a very sad way to live. I couldn't live anywhere where I was too frightened to buy anything, had no emotional attachment and was ready to leave at a moments notice. What sort of life is that? Why don't you just live somewhere where you feel safe buying and can build a life. It seems sheer madness to waste you life like this.

[ldnguy]

Are you stupid.If there was anything available to invest in.It would not be available.I have seen idiots for many years,loose all there money,Because they think that they are cleverer than the person before. Listened to there bragging,about what they are going to do .And how others made mistakes.6 months later,someone else in same place talking the same.People established for many years.Will tell you.They only get along to stay in thailand.But its not a big earner,just tick over.And it gives them something to do.Do your research,Thailand is a timebomb.

What an ignorant post! I reckon you're the stupid one, you can't even spell lose! I bought a house here 2 years ago and its value has increased nicely, although I will probably never realize the profit as I intend to stay. As someone else on here mentioned, the important thing is not to put all of your eggs in one basket and imo not to invest in areas that you're not familiar with (both financial and geographical) and never to listen to the likes of Thomas Hannah!

This is interesting. I haven't seen prices of RE go up in the last 2 years, which does not mean they haven't. However, you can't legally own a house in TH. So whatever you did (company, gf, wife, friend) is of questionable investment value.

There are people who have made a lot of money in Thailand. But, from what I can see, the playing field is not level and you're facing an uphill battle with your investments here. For every guy who actually made some money in Thailand, there are tens if not hundreds who lost of of their life savings here.

Someone said it nicely. In order to make little money in Thailand, you need to bring a LOT of money in.

You could say the same of countries like USA. Have you seen how many have lost their life savings by investing in the USA? It's the same the world over - some make money while most don't. The problem with the majority is that they have no idea of how to invest and won't take the time to learn.

[ldnguy]

In comparison Thailand is relatively stable compared to other Asian economies.

That does not mean it is a good place to invest, compared to the other choices near by.

Malysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia are jokes.

Thailand, by comparison, is less of a joke.

Not that i have any "money" to invest, but if i did it wouldn't be in Southeast Asia.

And that includes Thailand ..... but presently of all Southeast Asia countries, Thailand is less of a joke than it's neighbores in the region.

With the possible exemption of Vietnam.

A country doesn't have to be stable to be able to make a profitable investment. Some of the most unstable countries have the most amazing investment opportunities. Buy a house in a war zone and you'll likely make huge amounts of money. You will run the risk of losing everything, but the rewards can be huge.

[KittenKong]

Whether Thailand is a good place to invest in or not rather depends on what you want to invest in.

Would I buy shares in some big Thai company, or deposit cash in a Thai bank or buy Government bonds? Yes.

Would I buy off-plan condos for later resale or rental? Or buy existing condos/houses to rent out? Not very likely at all.

Would I get involved in a business with an individual (Thai or farang) in Thailand? Never.

[Nowisee]

I think its a bad time. I think the building here is of build it and they will come attitude more than there is some catalyst driving people here.

Or, at the very least, hope on asean bringing something to the table for thailand... hope is not a good investment strategy.

Personally, I will never invest in any asian market, stock or property. The disclosure laws are too open and lose and lying seems to be a game they are better at than I am.

The rental property in CM is increasing in certain areas, this is driving people to the outer areas to pay less. The reason many people come here is because it was much cheaper than home country... when that is (and in many cases it is) no longer the case, people simply move on to the next place.

The owners of these properties will either have to lower their prices or, as most greedy people do, stay firm on their price and not have any tenants.

It's not a dramatic effect, rather it takes time... it's that very reason people hang on to their investments until they finally realize its dead... usually too late to recover.

Like the frog in hot water analogy.

I stay very liquid in this country. Other than the motorcycle, everything is rented and when I need to, I just leave. No emotional attachments.

In the mean time, I am saving money living here. When the time comes, I will move back to home country, find a nice rural place and enjoy.

If it suits you, great. But for me this is a very sad way to live. I couldn't live anywhere where I was too frightened to buy anything, had no emotional attachment and was ready to leave at a moments notice. What sort of life is that? Why don't you just live somewhere where you feel safe buying and can build a life. It seems sheer madness to waste you life like this.

Capital preservation.

It does suit me.

Sadness is your perception and reality is mine.

Not "frightened" to buy "anything" that sounds a bit extremist. I bought a motorcycle, did you miss that?

I simply do not trust the asian mentality of trust when it comes to investments. They lie, they are good at it and it is well known. Many investors will not touch China, Thailand and other asian countries for that very reason.

The immigration laws and general corruption throughout is also a major factor.

The increase in cost of living is yet another.

Why live in a far away land of (the list goes on) at the same cost of living in home country? That is sheer madness... unless of course you live in the UK.

I have no intention of building a "life" here. I am here only for the experience... and the more time I spend here, the more I learn.

There is a whole world out there and I am not content with getting off at the first stop and ending the journey of life.

Edited February 7, 2015 by Nowisee

[wowfactor10]

Better to invest your money in a country where locals and visitors get same treatment

I don't see how that would be a better investment. You need to judge risk and reward not worry about treatment of locals and visitors.

I would take all in consideration..

Why invest in a country where they let USA citizens to own businesses 100% and Europeans can not ?Why we can get screwed then?

Why invest in leasehold land or houses while in the end a Thai person ends up your investment? whats the point?

Yes u can consider freehold condos..but better do u homework first..i do not see big turnovers in resale and or with rental.

.I say Let them first change their laws make em equal for all thais and farangs and if not then do not invest one single baht here till they get the message..

[ttthailand]

I think the only way to invest in house or condo here is to buy at below market value. Having said that it is difficult to really know what is the true market value as the asking price could be 10 to 50% higher than what the true market value is. For me, market value is 10 times the price you can rent it for in a year. Condo that rents for 10K a month I estimate market value at 1.2 mil. So I think a good price now for this condo is about 900,000 or less.

That's what I think

[Sandman77]

How much the Thai baht realy go up within one year?

Euro down 15 Procent and Bhat up 5?

[Lukecan]

Look at all the threads on GBP vs THB, USD v THB, EUR vs THB, AUD vs THB, where people get in trouble because they've no assets/investments/income streams here.

If you're going to be here long term, the better question is can you afford not to invest?

If you're planning to spend a long term here, it makes sense to me to invest. That said, no need to rush in. Take your time and invest gradually over time.

My top 3 investments:

1. Wife and kids - can't put a price on those

2. Thai equity funds - particularly LTFs - have done very well last 15 years = ball park 1,000%+

3. Family home - great having your own place, and knowing you/your family have a real home and the security it provides in case something happens to you. Also fixes your expenses. Don't know what it would sell for now. Do know if we had to buy another it would cost more, particularly in GBP terms.

As for the people who say don't invest in Thailand blah blah blah.... I also used to listen to these "experts" when I first arrived. As time went by, a few of the things I realised:

- Many weren't really experts at all. Just repeating mantras, bar stories etc. Often they just wanted to sound knowledgeable by repeating what others said - who often didn't know much either

- Years later they hadn't learnt much more, and still had the same level of "expertise" or left

- Many of them wouldn't make successful investors, wherever they want and whatever they did.

- A few had been scammed and one way or another had been hard done by/ been unlucky. More might have done better not coming to Thailand, or taking things slower, or investing in similar ways they would have done back where they came from, or with the big head instead of the little head

So no, not a bad time if you're here for the long term. Take your time though, we're not in a situation where it's a once in a lifetime all or nothing scenario.

Cheers

Fletch

1000%

Thats amazing.

Nice post btw.

[ldnguy]

Better to invest your money in a country where locals and visitors get same treatment

I don't see how that would be a better investment. You need to judge risk and reward not worry about treatment of locals and visitors.

I would take all in consideration..

Why invest in a country where they let USA citizens to own businesses 100% and Europeans can not ?Why we can get screwed then?

Why invest in leasehold land or houses while in the end a Thai person ends up your investment? whats the point?

Yes u can consider freehold condos..but better do u homework first..i do not see big turnovers in resale and or with rental.

.I say Let them first change their laws make em equal for all thais and farangs and if not then do not invest one single baht here till they get the message..

You can make joint investments. It's all risk and reward. If I trust a Thai person I'm willing to invest with them if the investment is good. Is this risky? It might be. Is the risk worth the potential reward? Yes, if you know what you're doing and research it properly. Of course there is risk, but that's the whole point of investment. It's not all about owning things as an individual. Most people buy shares (in USA), but they don't have any real ownership or say in the running of the companies.

I don't understand why you need to have 100% ownership to invest. 99.9%+ of people invest in things where they have under 1% ownership.

I'm only interested in investing for a good return. I have no interest in sending anyone a message. Some things are unfair in all countries. So you wouldn't be able to invest anywhere.

Edited February 7, 2015 by ldnguy

[ldnguy]

I think the only way to invest in house or condo here is to buy at below market value. Having said that it is difficult to really know what is the true market value as the asking price could be 10 to 50% higher than what the true market value is. For me, market value is 10 times the price you can rent it for in a year. Condo that rents for 10K a month I estimate market value at 1.2 mil. So I think a good price now for this condo is about 900,000 or less.

That's what I think

Investing isn't just about buying condos. But your method should work, so I hope you're buying some condos. If you think it's a good price you should buy. I'd definitely buy at that price. Hard to find but not impossible if you put the work in to find them. Let us know how you get on.

[TommyUK1960]

My old mate said "Easy to buy in Thailand but very difficult to sell". It is very difficult to make money in Thailand for farang. If you drive around you will see plenty of projects that farang own that have failed. Very few farang have succeeded and most that do are corrupt in some way.

[2fishin2]

Are you stupid.If there was anything available to invest in.It would not be available.I have seen idiots for many years,loose all there money,Because they think that they are cleverer than the person before. Listened to there bragging,about what they are going to do .And how others made mistakes.6 months later,someone else in same place talking the same.People established for many years.Will tell you.They only get along to stay in thailand.But its not a big earner,just tick over.And it gives them something to do.Do your research,Thailand is a timebomb.

What an ignorant post! I reckon you're the stupid one, you can't even spell lose! I bought a house here 2 years ago and its value has increased nicely, although I will probably never realize the profit as I intend to stay. As someone else on here mentioned, the important thing is not to put all of your eggs in one basket and imo not to invest in areas that you're not familiar with (both financial and geographical) and never to listen to the likes of Thomas Hannah!

Blah blah blah everybody dreams. Then sell your house and prove its increased value.