Thai export target revised to minus 3%

[webfact]

Export target revised to minus 3%
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Commerce Ministry today announced the new export growth forecast for 2015: the target was revised from the 2 per cent growth to minus three per cent.

Under the new target, Thailand is expected to to see the export value at US$220.7 billion throughout this year.

This is despite the fact that the new target is based on the average dollar/baht exchange rate at $/35.

Aside from weak demand overseas, hampering the sector - which contributes some 70 per cent of Thailand’s gross domestic product - is a fall in agricultural product prices. This year, the aggregate prices are expected to fall by 10 per cent from last year.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Export-target-revised-to-minus-3-30266042.html


-- The Nation 2015-08-06

[khwaibah]

That high ? I want to see TAT put a spin on this.

[Snig27]

Time to blame the rest of the world again I guess.

Offshore sources said the General's putsch had lost Thailand $15bln in the first few months. Of course that figure has now been multiplied several times, dwarfing any losses that the ill-judged rice scheme cost Thailand.

Sadly this will only worsen. Suthep's elite-serving antics then Herr General and his cabal of incompetents have taken one of SEA's most robust economies and turned it into the sick old basket case of Asia. So sad.

[Robert24]

@Snig27: that's rubbish. Main reason for export slow down is the economic weakness in China and other Asian countries. Other countries are similarly impacted and those with a larger commodities/mining exposure even more so. This is not about politics.

[zaphod reborn]

Time to blame the rest of the world again I guess.

Offshore sources said the General's putsch had lost Thailand $15bln in the first few months. Of course that figure has now been multiplied several times, dwarfing any losses that the ill-judged rice scheme cost Thailand.

Sadly this will only worsen. Suthep's elite-serving antics then Herr General and his cabal of incompetents have taken one of SEA's most robust economies and turned it into the sick old basket case of Asia. So sad.

I think you give far too much weight to the impact of the coup, Suthep's recent jailbreak, and the junta's economic policies on Thailand's export market. The primary reason for the collapse of exports has been that the Thai baht was inflated so that it remained pegged to the dollar (this trend is now reversing), a sluggish Chinese economy (Thailand's main trading partner), the recent drought (affecting Thailand's #1 export, agricultural goods), reduced seafood exports (due to threat of EU sanctions) and global economic downturn (especially Australia, Europe and the Mid-East).

I know you want to place all the blame on the junta, but, with respect to the drop of exports, their failure has more to do with not taking measures to quickly react to the change in conditions. I don't think anyone stopped trading with Thailand because Yingluck is no longer in power.

Edited August 6, 2015 by zaphod reborn

[bruceybonus]

@Snig27: that's rubbish. Main reason for export slow down is the economic weakness in China and other Asian countries. Other countries are similarly impacted and those with a larger commodities/mining exposure even more so. This is not about politics.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-agrees-free-trade-deal-with-vietnam-1438692135?mg=id-wsj

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/07/14/strong-export-growth-in-vietnam-masks-underlying-challenges/

Take your head out of your arse. No civilised countries want to deal with a military government. Add to that trafficking & aviation problems and Thailand is quickly becoming a pariah.

[andytime]

_{Taking nothing away from the effects of a coup but The China story and the fallout from their credit boom and for that matter the rest of the world will make any country wish for only a 3% decline in exports. Almost all currencies short of pound /CHF are collapsing against the dollar. Borrow in dollars and payback in dollars.... that will really hurt.}

[DLock]

Just yesterday they were considering dropping the growth target to zero.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/845907-thai-commerce-min-may-cut-export-growth-target-to-0/

Overnight they changed to -3%.

Things are worse than they appear me thinks....and this target will be revised down further in a month or 2...

[ColdSingha]

@Snig27: that's rubbish. Main reason for export slow down is the economic weakness in China and other Asian countries. Other countries are similarly impacted and those with a larger commodities/mining exposure even more so. This is not about politics.

Vietnam exports are up 9.3% year on year

http://asemconnectvietnam.gov.vn/default.aspx?ZID1=8&ID8=39117&ID1=2

[Thai at Heart]

Not very good at this forecasting stuff are they.

[Thailand]

Recession, coming soon!

[webfact]

Commerce predicts 3 percent export contraction for 2015



BANGKOK: -- The Ministry of Commerce has announced a newly-revised forecast for the whole year’s exports at minus three percent against the original 1.2 percent growth.

Mr Somkiat Trirattanaphan, director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, said this morning that the revised forecast was based on the assumption that the crude oil was traded at US$60 per barrel and 35 baht exchange rate for Thai baht against the US dollars.

He attributed the continuing export contraction to slow global economic recovery than expected and lower prices of agricultural produce and crude oil. On top of that, he said that car sale has substantially dropped in the past two months, especially pickup trucks which account for 11 percent of export value.

However, he is optimistic that the car market will recover in the next few months from now.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/commerce-predicts-3-percent-export-contraction-for-2015


-- Thai PBS 2015-08-06

[ourmanflint]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

[bamnutsak]

Assign blame (previous government, global economic downturn, U.S.A., el Nino).

Form a committee.

Increase budget expenditures, but not in a "populist" way.

Remain "optimistic".

Edited August 6, 2015 by bamnutsak

[Thai at Heart]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

You think all companies are going good to invest while Thailand is under a junta govt?

[laocowboy2]

@Snig27: that's rubbish. Main reason for export slow down is the economic weakness in China and other Asian countries. Other countries are similarly impacted and those with a larger commodities/mining exposure even more so. This is not about politics.

Not wholly - but politics is informing a lot of risk perceptions and weighing on FDI decisions.

[elgordo38]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

I could not agree more. The bottom line is all that matters to these blood suckers.

[Snig27]

@Snig27: that's rubbish. Main reason for export slow down is the economic weakness in China and other Asian countries. Other countries are similarly impacted and those with a larger commodities/mining exposure even more so. This is not about politics.

Funny how it's not impacting others the same way then ... have a quick look at Vietnam, The Philippines etc.

Oh, right .. it's everyone else's fault.

The reason you are having problems breathing is because your head seems stuck in the sand.

[Snig27]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

I posted this some weeks back, but from personal experience I know of a fairly large offshore owned Thai based company who were declined bank support (by HSBC) for their planned expansion in Thailand. The bank advised it would not do so whilst Thailand remained under a military junta as policy. The same company got the finance for the new factory in Indonesia. Subsequently they've made the corporate decision to relocate the current factory to the same country - 1000+ jobs gone.

Vietnam too, is doing very, very well from the Thai problems.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Snig27

[soalbundy]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

I could not agree more. The bottom line is all that matters to these blood suckers.

One of the most successful post war politicians in Germany was the generally corrupt regarded Franz Joseph Strauss who turned the poorest federal state of Bavaria from a farming economy to the industrial powerhouse of Germany. He once said that a little corruption was oil on the wheels of industry, i think he was right, the illegal gain of one can be a huge legal gain for many.

[Thai at Heart]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

I posted this some weeks back, but from personal experience I know of a fairly large offshore owned Thai based company who were declined bank support (by HSBC) for their planned expansion in Thailand. The bank advised it would not do so whilst Thailand remained under a military junta as policy. The same company got the finance for the new factory in Indonesia. Subsequently they've made the corporate decision to relocate the current factory to the same country - 1000+ jobs gone.

Vietnam too, is doing very, very well from the Thai problems.

Exactly. People who claim that the junta isn't effecting investor decisions are being very naive. Beyond that, does anyone really believe that this period of the junta will be followed by rainbows and bunny rabbits?

It is just an interim calm period. No one can predict what will happen for the next 5 years let lone 10. Factories are 20 year decisions. Thailand house is not in order, so some companies will choose elsewhere.

Believing otherwise is very naive.

[ourmanflint]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

I posted this some weeks back, but from personal experience I know of a fairly large offshore owned Thai based company who were declined bank support (by HSBC) for their planned expansion in Thailand. The bank advised it would not do so whilst Thailand remained under a military junta as policy. The same company got the finance for the new factory in Indonesia. Subsequently they've made the corporate decision to relocate the current factory to the same country - 1000+ jobs gone.

Vietnam too, is doing very, very well from the Thai problems.

I think we are agreeing more than disagreeing. If HSBC thought the risk was too much, then for them that was not "good business sense", and we are in agreement. I'm pretty sure there are other benefits to relocating to Indonesia vs Thailand as well.

[chainarong]

@Snig27: that's rubbish. Main reason for export slow down is the economic weakness in China and other Asian countries. Other countries are similarly impacted and those with a larger commodities/mining exposure even more so. This is not about politics.

Oz just had another bleak month with another grand set of unemployment figures , mainly due to the slowdown in China , mining is predicted to get worse, confidence in the business sector is down and spending is at a all time low, except imported luxury cars , now that's worth noting , they all arrived in one piece not many pieces., thought I'd just throw this in and a record number of homeless , even the Kiwi's are going home Thailand isn't an orphan

[mommysboy]

@Snig27: that's rubbish. Main reason for export slow down is the economic weakness in China and other Asian countries. Other countries are similarly impacted and those with a larger commodities/mining exposure even more so. This is not about politics.

Ok there's a general slowdown, but peer economies appear to be doing a lot better, and this is primarily to do with the overly strong baht, and poor economically policy. To the extent the Gov. does not run the economy well, it may also be about politics.

Nothing a substantial devaluation of the baht can't cure.

[inzman]

What surprises me is they are admitting a contraction. So unlike them to say, no spin?

[Kaoboi Bebobp]

Big business outside Thailand couldn't give a shoot about the coup. The only thing that matters is the bottom line, if operating or investing in Thailand makes good business sense then the green light is given no matter who is in charge. It's only when big businesses "arrangements" come under scrutiny that things change, and the new government is definitely poking its nose into lots of dusty corners.

I posted this some weeks back, but from personal experience I know of a fairly large offshore owned Thai based company who were declined bank support (by HSBC) for their planned expansion in Thailand. The bank advised it would not do so whilst Thailand remained under a military junta as policy. The same company got the finance for the new factory in Indonesia. Subsequently they've made the corporate decision to relocate the current factory to the same country - 1000+ jobs gone.

Vietnam too, is doing very, very well from the Thai problems.

And VN will do even better. It has just signed a massive and comprehensive free trade deal with the EU that will see trade barriers come down on both sides. The EU has already signed one with Singapore and is going after Japan and India. Thailand is not on the radar.

[trainman34014]

Things are due to get even worse one way and another. When the EU delivers the red card on seafood imports from Thailand that will affect the bottom line like a ton of lead.

[dru2]

Time to blame the rest of the world again I guess.

Offshore sources said the General's putsch had lost Thailand $15bln in the first few months. Of course that figure has now been multiplied several times, dwarfing any losses that the ill-judged rice scheme cost Thailand.

Sadly this will only worsen. Suthep's elite-serving antics then Herr General and his cabal of incompetents have taken one of SEA's most robust economies and turned it into the sick old basket case of Asia. So sad.

Yes indeed! If only Yingluck had been in power things would have been so much better...

[jesimps]

Time to blame the rest of the world again I guess.

Offshore sources said the General's putsch had lost Thailand $15bln in the first few months. Of course that figure has now been multiplied several times, dwarfing any losses that the ill-judged rice scheme cost Thailand.

Sadly this will only worsen. Suthep's elite-serving antics then Herr General and his cabal of incompetents have taken one of SEA's most robust economies and turned it into the sick old basket case of Asia. So sad.

Yes indeed! If only Yingluck had been in power things would have been so much better...

Of course.

[Srikcir]

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday vowed that his government would do its best to ensure a strong economic performance this year, and told the business sector not to worry about the political situation. - The Nation 2015-01-13

PRAYUT's BEST FAILED

Time for Change.

Unfortunately, that is currently beyond the power of the Thai people - or so they are led to believe.