US-Thailand relations on a razor's edge

[webfact]

US-Thailand Relations on a Razor’s Edge
By Shawn W. Crispin

Further delays in polls could lead to a more punitive US response.

BANGKOK: -- Could a further postponement of elections in Thailand trigger a more punitive U.S. response to last year’s democracy-suspending coup and subsequent heavy-handed military rule?

Recent reports indicate the ruling junta’s roadmap to elections could be delayed from September 2016 to April 2017 if the military-appointed National Reform Commission rejects next month a draft constitution that aims to reorder the country’s turbulent politics.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha vowed upon seizing power in mid-2014 to restore democracy by late 2015, but as delays mount that narrative seems more geared to ease international pressure than reinstate civilian rule.

The U.S. has been a consistent critic of the coup and its authoritarian aftermath, a position the State Department has advanced on democratic principle to the detriment of the wider strategic relationship.

U.S. envoys have doggedly emphasized the need to quickly hold new polls to restore normal ties, including a full resumption of now suspended high-level strategic dialogue, downgraded joint military exercises and trainings, and curtailed sales of certain types of weaponry and defense equipment.

Full story: http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/us-thailand-relations-on-a-razors-edge/

-- The Diplomat 2015-08-11

[jerojero]

Thought the PM just said all is well with the USA, and Americans can't wait to further invest in Thailand now. Double-talk? (Answer: yes! )

[noikrit]

On a Razors edge !! ..... ... Oh Crispin you crack me up ! .....

[Thai at Heart]

Didn't Shawn Crispin work for one of Sondhis rag mags? Someone stirring the pot here methinks.

[alfalfa19]

I don't think the US gives a rat's ass, unless they still have a torture camp in place there, in which case they might be inconvenienced a bit.

[Carmine6]

On a Razors edge !! ..... ... Oh Crispin you crack me up ! .....

Yeah, a bit hyperbolic. When US diplomatic relations were just restored with Cuba, and a deal with Iran on the table, with lifting of sanctions, what's the fallout if relations worsen with Thailand? Stern language in an official statement?

[lujanit]

Last Saturday I had lunch with a group of Thais who all agreed that they could care less about the US and what they think or do. There was open hostility towards the US and it's interference in Thai internal affairs. The consensus was that Thailand was far better off with Prayut running the show than either the Yellow or Red shirts. These Thais were quite happy to let the NCPO run the country for as long as the NCPO wanted to.

The Thais I was with are all university educated, many educated outside Thailand and some hold down influential government/quasi government positions. They all speak English fluently. Granted maybe not your average under educated Thai, yet it does show that there are people who think for themselves and don't believe everything in the news or on the net.

And they don't give a rat's arse what the US says. I heard the word hypocrite used more than once (referring to the USA).

[Charlie Croker]

Ludicrous headline, who gives a good god damn about the US.

They already did their worst, They won't invade or risk further tensions for the sake of I told you.

They put Thailand on tier 3- so now Thailand makes efforts to trade with every country on the US embargo list.

USA have no legitimacy in dictating about human rights abuses. They ignore human rights when it suits them, turn a blind eye to other countries abuses (whatever happened to the stick they used to routinely beat China with) and turn the hose on other countries if they feel so obliged.

However, when ASEAN is in full swing, things are going to shift. The USA better start looking to ensure their own democratic processes are in good order then.

Or the ASEAN dragon will be making exclusive deals with China.

[TheKnave]

Last Saturday I had lunch with a group of Thais who all agreed that they could care less about the US and what they think or do. There was open hostility towards the US and it's interference in Thai internal affairs. The consensus was that Thailand was far better off with Prayut running the show than either the Yellow or Red shirts. These Thais were quite happy to let the NCPO run the country for as long as the NCPO wanted to.

The Thais I was with are all university educated, many educated outside Thailand and some hold down influential government/quasi government positions. They all speak English fluently. Granted maybe not your average under educated Thai, yet it does show that there are people who think for themselves and don't believe everything in the news or on the net.

And they don't give a rat's arse what the US says. I heard the word hypocrite used more than once (referring to the USA).

They have short memories that blow in the wind. All driven by false pride and nationalism.

Saw the same thing in the aftermath of the '97 currency crash. Thais calling the IMF "International Mother and Father" after getting bailed out. Petulant children, all.

China will bite them in the a s s, big time, mark my words.

[h90]

USA can't make much, else they loose their spy stations here

[2fishin2]

Last Saturday I had lunch with a group of Thais who all agreed that they could care less about the US and what they think or do. There was open hostility towards the US and it's interference in Thai internal affairs. The consensus was that Thailand was far better off with Prayut running the show than either the Yellow or Red shirts. These Thais were quite happy to let the NCPO run the country for as long as the NCPO wanted to.

The Thais I was with are all university educated, many educated outside Thailand and some hold down influential government/quasi government positions. They all speak English fluently. Granted maybe not your average under educated Thai, yet it does show that there are people who think for themselves and don't believe everything in the news or on the net.

And they don't give a rat's arse what the US says. I heard the word hypocrite used more than once (referring to the USA).

Typical Thais without a clue about how the rest of the world lives. Beaten into oppression so much so, they dont realize it.

[puukao]

Yes, Razor's edge!!!

Soon all USA accounts frozen in Thailand.....all businesses seized.....and visas will be for one HOUR.....overstay at 500 baht per minute!!

But for 500,000 baht you can get Elite Visa and avoid all this!!!!

[oneday]

Has there been some new threat from the US I'm not aware of?

Much ado about nothing!

[JakeSully]

Actually it's well known the US supports Thaksin and Yingluck because both were democratically elected. They've never had any love for military governments.. just look at Cuba or Myanmar.

So unless Thailand wants to go the economic route of Myanmar and Cuba, Prayuth had better listen.

In a way it's good though.. the baht has already started sliding.. and now they're coming up with multiple visas for all nationalities. So obviously something must really be wrong behind the scenes. If Prayuth stays in power.. the worse for thailand but the better for our farang money vs the baht.

[dageurreotype]

Last Saturday I had lunch with a group of Thais who all agreed that they could care less about the US and what they think or do. There was open hostility towards the US and it's interference in Thai internal affairs. The consensus was that Thailand was far better off with Prayut running the show than either the Yellow or Red shirts. These Thais were quite happy to let the NCPO run the country for as long as the NCPO wanted to.

The Thais I was with are all university educated, many educated outside Thailand and some hold down influential government/quasi government positions. They all speak English fluently. Granted maybe not your average under educated Thai, yet it does show that there are people who think for themselves and don't believe everything in the news or on the net.

And they don't give a rat's arse what the US says. I heard the word hypocrite used more than once (referring to the USA).

Typical Thais without a clue about how the rest of the world lives. Beaten into oppression so much so, they dont realize it.

I can assure you they do realise it, it's simply they feel powerless to do anything about it. As to the US, if relations were on a 'razor's edge', how is it they've just installed another ambassador here instead of a mere consul?

[cameraman888]

I think USA should keep their mouth shut but I also think Thailand should listen to the Thai people, not just do as they please. Therefore USA is maybe saying democracy would be a good thing for Thailand. Unfortunately, USA is no long a democracy, more like a country run by the rich.

China tourists are coming to Thailand in droves, more like large groups in large buses. Unfortunately they do not spend money like most tourists visiting Thailand, and lack the manners that the Thai people are used to. I don't blame the Chinese people, but I do blame China's government for not teaching their people how to be polite. It comes down to cultural differences.

[lostoday]

USA can't make much, else they loose their spy stations here

The Vietnam war has been long over

Interesting you mentioned Vietnam. How many millions died there (for no reason)?

Vietnam was another thing Uncle Sam was totally clueless about in Southeast Asia. Johnson & Nixon didn't even realize (or didn't care) that Ho Chi Minh was a nationalist and only wanted to reunite his country. I guess dominoes made a better story.

Re-Unite eh? Interesting thought. Uncle Ho stole the land of the Catholics in the North. Ho executed between 50 and 100 thousand people and invaded Laos in 1959 aided by the Pathet Lao, and used 30,000 men to build invasion and supply routes through Laos known as the Ho Chi Minh trail. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh

Interesting period of time WWII and the Indochina war; perhaps worth some study before saying something as absurd as. " Ho Chi Minh was a nationalist and only wanted to reunite his country."

You might want to google "rent reduction" and "land reform" programs in North Vietnam and the 1954 Geneva Accords concluded between France and the Viet Minh.

[lostoday]

I think USA should keep their mouth shut but I also think Thailand should listen to the Thai people, not just do as they please. Therefore USA is maybe saying democracy would be a good thing for Thailand. Unfortunately, USA is no long a democracy, more like a country run by the rich.

China tourists are coming to Thailand in droves, more like large groups in large buses. Unfortunately they do not spend money like most tourists visiting Thailand, and lack the manners that the Thai people are used to. I don't blame the Chinese people, but I do blame China's government for not teaching their people how to be polite. It comes down to cultural differences.

Mouth shut yes and wallet shut too. Ohhhhh?

[lap82]

Countries shouldn't care about the influence of the US, but in the current scenario, it's impossible to turn your back to them. But, as aforementioned, I don't think they would worsen relaions with any country, maybe only if they go at war.

[lostoday]

USA can't make much, else they loose their spy stations here

The Vietnam war has been long over

I think he means where they drop the terrorists off to chat.

[kingalfred]

So USA decides if a country should be supported based on that country's "internal democracy"? Hmmm US biggest hypocratic state "on the Earth.

[h90]

USA can't make much, else they loose their spy stations here

The Vietnam war has been long over

China is the new focus.... Also interesting weather over the marine oil fields.....and several spy stations.

I doubt USA would like if they get kicked out of the American Singapore base in Thailand and instead China or Russia opens a base. And the next exercise is called "Red Star" instead of "Cobra Gold".

Or short version: it would be very silly to loose a long time ally to China.

[Lunchbob]

Last Saturday I had lunch with a group of Thais who all agreed that they could care less about the US and what they think or do. There was open hostility towards the US and it's interference in Thai internal affairs. The consensus was that Thailand was far better off with Prayut running the show than either the Yellow or Red shirts. These Thais were quite happy to let the NCPO run the country for as long as the NCPO wanted to.

The Thais I was with are all university educated, many educated outside Thailand and some hold down influential government/quasi government positions. They all speak English fluently. Granted maybe not your average under educated Thai, yet it does show that there are people who think for themselves and don't believe everything in the news or on the net.

And they don't give a rat's arse what the US says. I heard the word hypocrite used more than once (referring to the USA).

So wonderful to find so many waking up! Bravo!

[tbthailand]

So I hear that Prayuth and Davies will arm-wrestle at their first meeting and the winner gets to write the joint statement to be read to the public afterwards...

[FangFerang]

The biggest foreign policy blunder from the US in recent memory was when it leaked that China, Malaysia and one other country in addition to Thailand were recommended for Tier 3 status by the analysts to the US State Department, but only Thailand got black flagged.

Bad form! Malaysia was let off because they signed the FTP, and China is a bit 'hands off' since they own a huge amount of US debt and are the number one producer of goods shipped to the US.

Very bad form!

[lostoday]

Last Saturday I had lunch with a group of Thais who all agreed that they could care less about the US and what they think or do. There was open hostility towards the US and it's interference in Thai internal affairs. The consensus was that Thailand was far better off with Prayut running the show than either the Yellow or Red shirts. These Thais were quite happy to let the NCPO run the country for as long as the NCPO wanted to.

The Thais I was with are all university educated, many educated outside Thailand and some hold down influential government/quasi government positions. They all speak English fluently. Granted maybe not your average under educated Thai, yet it does show that there are people who think for themselves and don't believe everything in the news or on the net.

And they don't give a rat's arse what the US says. I heard the word hypocrite used more than once (referring to the USA).

So wonderful to find so many waking up! Bravo!

I think they always knew they were too small a minority to win an election so opted government appointed by other means.

[bendejo]

They better watch out, "the Thailand issue" may become a football in 2016 campaign. No good will come of that.

Dear Thais, you do not want Donald Trump making a comment about your country. Take my word for it.

[EnglishJohn]

"The U.S. has been a consistent critic of the coup and its authoritarian aftermath."

Really ?. From what I have seen, the USA have done the absolute minimum they are required to do by their law.

The bigger picture in the world is the rise of China and the need for allies close by in the region. Anyone who thinks other countries take Thailand seriously with it's corruption and squabbling schoolboy-level politicians is probably Thai themselves.

[sammygood]

thank god that china is the new besties with thailand

[djjamie]

And the see saw of Thai - US relations continues.

Just after the coup America's narrative was "Relations have been damaged". 3 months after the coup the narrative was "Relations cannot be stronger".

One thing can be guaranteed and that is that the American govt wont restrict the American private sector investing heavily in Thailand. After all 2014 saw Thailand receive the highest ever amount of foreign investment as was suggested by Prayut at the November US - Thai business council meeting . (facts, not beliefs from the tom yum restaurant owner)

America was directly behind over 20 coups when it suited their agenda yet is not behind this one because it doesn't. Is this about democracy? Nahh, it is a convenient handle for them to use.