Baht vs US$

[Drees]

An exchange rate don't go up (or down) all the time....don't expect a trend which say is going up day-after-day for a while to continue...at some point it will head the other direction for a while. People need to take a longer term view versus only a daily or monthly view.

The recent currency variation (manipulating) of the Chinese yuan, Bank of Japan interest rate going negative last week, and the oil price ups & downs is making a lot of currency pairs do strange things right now. If I had to guess the Bank of Japan negative interest rate thing and the lower than expected U.S. GDP number for Dec 15 (announced in mid Jan 16) is having the biggest impact on the USD-THB rate.

Also, according to one of Murhpy's Laws the exchange rate will go down just before you need to exchange a large sum of money---it's the law.

You are right. Every time when I read a post like "what is going on with the USD against the THB" I try to explain that financial markets are volatile, it never goes only up, or down. If you look at some charts you can see the USD is at a very high point already and most likely will get a correction first, but ofcourse I am not sure. I can not predict the future.

Some people say, but the economy in Thailand is not going good, so the USD against THB should go up. If it was that easy everybody would get rich! Just buy some turbo's, or options long on the USD against THB and earn a lot of money. Plus the fact that the financial markets are running half a year, until a year in front of the economy, so the economy at this moment has nothing to do with it.

Some people say, this is Thailasnd. No it is not Thailoand, it happens everywhere in the world.

Is there somebody playing. No nobody is playing, just normal.

[lannarebirth]

I was here during Vietnam war at U-Tapao, big US B-52 base owned bt Royal Thai Navy.

The baht was a constant 20.85 to the USD.

Hanky panky could be and is being played again.

Source: Wiki

From 1956 until 1973, the baht was pegged to the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of 20.8 baht = one dollar and at 20 baht = 1 dollar until 1978. ^[5][6][7] A strengthening US economy caused Thailand to re-peg its currency at 25 to the dollar from 1984 until 2 July 1997, when the country was affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The baht was floated and halved in value, reaching its lowest rate of 56 to the dollar in January 1998. It has since risen to about 30 per dollar.

[Acharn]

The Bank of Thailand uses what they call a "managed float." They will try to keep the baht within a certain range against a "basket" of currencies, with the USD given a pretty heavy weight. They want to keep the rate stable as much as possible to make it easier to plan business activities, but they learned in 1997 that there are degrees of market pressure they simply can't resist (no, not George Soros, he really wasn't playing in 1997). If you had described what is puzzling you perhaps people could give you better information. What "games" are you talking about?

[slerickson]

Simple the Thai economy is in the crapper and it's not likely to get any better any time soon.

For being in the crapper as you say I am then especially amazed at the number of factories, very large stores and new homes being constructed south of Chiang Mai. Hard to imagine this area is so unique.

[Gonzo the Face]

Whats puzzeling me ????? Bkk Bnk opened today with a jump in Baht strength of 22 satang.....to the $..... there is no crisis or emergency nor natural disaster in the process...... yes, you normally see a 2,3,4, satang movement one direction or another ...but when was the last time, in normal conditions, that you saw a 22 point jump??? If I knew what the games were, I would have to be part of it..... You can see the results of a traffic accident, without knowing the cause of it, and you will have a ?

Edited February 4, 2016 by Gonzo the Face

[cadcat]

And private debt (household debt) stands at 84% - Highest in Asia -

"The critical DSR threshold is 40%. Above this level, households in all
occupations exhibit a significant increase in their predicted probability of having
difficulty paying their debt. On the threats associated with future interest rate
hikes, our micro-simulation model indicates that low-income households are
likely to see disproportionate increase in DSR. The rate increases will also
threaten households who are `almost’ financially vulnerable."

https://www.google.co.th/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjK_6Glhd3KAhVNBI4KHS2GDwkQFggbMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bot.or.th%2FThai%2FMonetaryPolicy%2FArticleAndResearch%2FSymposiumDocument%2FPaper4_2557.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGsF2ZFBHU6cQmaIzuJzsCJ-zzMVg&sig2=DNPcz9ZF2PCt9YhGBd0KxA

Thailands household debt has been rising fastest in the region. Go to the link and read the pdf. It will be an eye opener.

[TheAppletons]

Whats puzzeling me ????? Bkk Bnk opened today with a jump in Baht strength of 22 satang.....to the $..... there is no crisis or emergency nor natural disaster in the process...... yes, you normally see a 2,3,4, satang movement one direction or another ...but when was the last time, in normal conditions, that you saw a 22 point jump??? If I knew what the games were, I would have to be part of it..... You can see the results of a traffic accident, without knowing the cause of it, and you will have a ?

Because the Central Bank did not lower interest rates....kept them steady at 1.5%. A portion of currency markets movements are based upon market expectations.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/892138-policy-rate-kept-at-15-percent-for-the-sixth-time/

[Berkshire]

Whats puzzeling me ????? Bkk Bnk opened today with a jump in Baht strength of 22 satang.....to the $..... there is no crisis or emergency nor natural disaster in the process...... yes, you normally see a 2,3,4, satang movement one direction or another ...but when was the last time, in normal conditions, that you saw a 22 point jump??? If I knew what the games were, I would have to be part of it..... You can see the results of a traffic accident, without knowing the cause of it, and you will have a ?

Man, you're really watching the rates closely....every day? My advice is to stop worrying about it and just go on with your life. It is what it is, market dynamics at work. No manipulation, just basic supply and demand. And most importantly, you, I, the BOT, nor even the biggest of hedge funds, have no control over it.

[cadcat]

"nor even the biggest of hedge funds, have no control over it."

Really?

"No manipulation, just basic supply and demand"

Well,- if you still believe that than you are one of the 99% who think there is a "market"

As we are in Thailand,- what do you think happened during the Asian Crisis 11 Years ago?

Or when Soros and friends blew up The Pound Sterling?

As you give advice so freely, here is one from me for free: start reading!

A good place to go would be zerohedge.com

[bkk6060]

And private debt (household debt) stands at 84% - Highest in Asia -

"The critical DSR threshold is 40%. Above this level, households in all

occupations exhibit a significant increase in their predicted probability of having

difficulty paying their debt. On the threats associated with future interest rate

hikes, our micro-simulation model indicates that low-income households are

likely to see disproportionate increase in DSR. The rate increases will also

threaten households who are `almost’ financially vulnerable."

https://www.google.co.th/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjK_6Glhd3KAhVNBI4KHS2GDwkQFggbMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bot.or.th%2FThai%2FMonetaryPolicy%2FArticleAndResearch%2FSymposiumDocument%2FPaper4_2557.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGsF2ZFBHU6cQmaIzuJzsCJ-zzMVg&sig2=DNPcz9ZF2PCt9YhGBd0KxA

Thailands household debt has been rising fastest in the region. Go to the link and read the pdf. It will be an eye opener.

I agree with you. I have met many Thai ladies (not bargirls) over the past 5 years. They have apartments, drive nice cars, nice clothes and try to live on 20,000 b per month.

Every last one of them had big CC debt, car debt, loans at work, etc.

When I asked them how they plan to get out of debt the answer often was: Meet Falang, then they laugh.

[watcharacters]

I see nothing out of the ordinary. I think the Thai Baht and US dollar are linked.My Canadian dollar is linked to US dollar.and I check the rates the % change of exchange for Canadian to Us is the same as the % of change Canadian to Thai Baht.constantly. If my Canadian dollar drops against Us it drops the same % against Thai baht. Seems to be a pattern there.

How can you watch the $USD:THB fall from 28 to 36.5 in 3 years time and believe they are linked?

LOL..

[AlphMichaels]

So for the uninitiated, should I pay with THB or USD when using my credit card? Thanks

If you pay for anything in Thailand that accepts payments in USD..., ALWAYS ask what their specific exchange rate is. Hospitals are notorious for providing the service and it's a profit center for them as they exchange well below the current prevailing rate. In other words, they make even more money on you when you pay with dollars.

[AlphMichaels]

I do notice that on Mondays in Thailand while the US markets are closed since it is still the weekend in the US, the baht always gets stronger. Then on Tuesday seems to move with the market again.

Currency markets trade 24 hours a day for FIVE days a week. When US markets close on Friday, everything is in place until AU markets open Monday local time.

[allanos]

One of the ever-present problems for currency traders, is the problem

of "gapping", especially over a weekend. During normal trade, for the

majority of the time, a "pair" will open where at the same level, or price,

from where it previously closed.

However, if pertinent "news" related to currency pairings takes place

during a weekend, there will very likely be a gap, sometimes very large,

between where a currency opens on a Monday compared to where it

closed on a preceding Friday.

Because the currency market is closed from USA close on a Friday to

Australia opening on a Monday, traders are powerless in the face of

the example given above.

Consequently, "day traders" in particular, will close all of their trades on

a Friday and only commence trading again when the markets open on

a Monday.

Other traders who stay in the market over weekends, and will take their

chances, will, however, most oftentimes tighten their stops.

Safety first, you might say!

[Naam]

Whats puzzeling me ????? Bkk Bnk opened today with a jump in Baht strength of 22 satang.....to the $..... there is no crisis or emergency nor natural disaster in the process...... yes, you normally see a 2,3,4, satang movement one direction or another ...but when was the last time, in normal conditions, that you saw a 22 point jump??? If I knew what the games were, I would have to be part of it..... You can see the results of a traffic accident, without knowing the cause of it, and you will have a ?

the 22 Satang jump was caused by an extremely weaker US-Dollar vs. most other major currencies. as simple as that.

p.s. and the "elite in Bangkok" did not cause the Dollar to weaken

Edited February 4, 2016 by Naam

[Caspersfriend]

Someone, somewhere, possibly said: "To make a profit in forex trading, you must buy low and sell high, although not necessarily in that order."

I gave up on 'speculating' long since and simply bring into my FCD account what appears to be prudent and then convert to the Thai version of 'funny money' what I need when the rate looks favourable.

If it looks more favourable the day after then c'est la vie

[lockman]

Something nobody mentions is black gold..aka oil. USA was a major importer, now becoming an exporter.

[slerickson]

I really do think the sh*t is going to hit the fan with all the fiat currencies, inflated money supply, and debt. There's still time to prepare.

Guess I can't provide a link but on YouTube, search for Mike Maloney videos. He and others are warning people of what I think is a coming certainty.

Edited February 6, 2016 by slerickson

[Langsuan Man]

I really do think the sh*t is going to hit the fan with all the fiat currencies, inflated money supply, and debt. There's still time to prepare.

Guess I can't provide a link but on YouTube, search for Mike Maloney videos. He and others are warning people of what I think is a coming certainty.

Yes and Chicken Little says the sky is falling. These gloom and doom Sayers are probably "hedging' their investments based upon their crystal ball analysis

[slerickson]

I really do think the sh*t is going to hit the fan with all the fiat currencies, inflated money supply, and debt. There's still time to prepare.

Guess I can't provide a link but on YouTube, search for Mike Maloney videos. He and others are warning people of what I think is a coming certainty.

Yes and Chicken Little says the sky is falling. These gloom and doom Sayers are probably "hedging' their investments based upon their crystal ball analysis

Good luck and thanks for the moronic post.

[elgenon]

I see nothing out of the ordinary. I think the Thai Baht and US dollar are linked.My Canadian dollar is linked to US dollar.and I check the rates the % change of exchange for Canadian to Us is the same as the % of change Canadian to Thai Baht.constantly. If my Canadian dollar drops against Us it drops the same % against Thai baht. Seems to be a pattern there.

How can you watch the $USD:THB fall from 28 to 36.5 in 3 years time and believe they are linked?

They are linked but the Thai gov't allows some change. Otherwise it would be too expensive to support the Baht.

[JimGant]

search for Mike Maloney videos

Mike Baloney is in the business of selling gold and silver. Selling the doom and gloom of Central Banking (particularly the US's Fed), which is not easily understood by the under educated and easily mislead, enhances his business.

Just contemplate where the world's economy would be if it were still on the gold standard. It would be nearly akin to a purely barter economy. Interesting that those who don't accept the necessity of Central Banking -- find the moon landings as bogus.

Moronic, indeed.

[slerickson]

search for Mike Maloney videos

Mike Baloney is in the business of selling gold and silver. Selling the doom and gloom of Central Banking (particularly the US's Fed), which is not easily understood by the under educated and easily mislead, enhances his business.

Just contemplate where the world's economy would be if it were still on the gold standard. It would be nearly akin to a purely barter economy. Interesting that those who don't accept the necessity of Central Banking -- find the moon landings as bogus.

Moronic, indeed.

I personally don't think the gold standard is a cure all. But worth noting and of concern is the length of the current bull market, money supply, combined world debt, wealth inequality, record low Baltic dry ship numbers, etc. Some say buy gold, some say hoard cash dollars, some stocks and bonds.

It's time in my opinion to be extremely cautious and try to divine whether it's hi inflation or deflation coming. That determines the efficacy of gold. But some serious economic upheaval is coming soon.

[morrobay]

search for Mike Maloney videos

Mike Baloney is in the business of selling gold and silver. Selling the doom and gloom of Central Banking (particularly the US's Fed), which is not easily understood by the under educated and easily mislead, enhances his business.

Just contemplate where the world's economy would be if it were still on the gold standard. It would be nearly akin to a purely barter economy. Interesting that those who don't accept the necessity of Central Banking -- find the moon landings as bogus.

Moronic, indeed.

I can contemplate a world economy based on the gold standard where asset values are based on fundamentals , ie infrastructure, technology, production. Instead of all these speculative /credit bubble values derived from this quantitative easing - sugar kool aid policy. Central Banks should not be controlling the economy like the Fed has been doing.

[morrobay]

search for Mike Maloney videos

Mike Baloney is in the business of selling gold and silver. Selling the doom and gloom of Central Banking (particularly the US's Fed), which is not easily understood by the under educated and easily mislead, enhances his business.

Just contemplate where the world's economy would be if it were still on the gold standard. It would be nearly akin to a purely barter economy. Interesting that those who don't accept the necessity of Central Banking -- find the moon landings as bogus.

Moronic, indeed.

I can contemplate a world economy based on the gold standard where asset values are based on fundamentals , ie infrastructure, technology, production. Instead of all these speculative /credit bubble values derived from this quantitative easing - sugar kool aid policy. Central Banks should not be controlling the economy like the Fed has been doing.

On the topic: you can thank the Fed for dollar weakness from all that QE BS ( that was great for emerging markets) that followed the financial crisis that was caused in part by that hack Greenspan promoting reckless financial deregulation and very low interest rates. By the way i did not look at the Maloney video what I say above is independent.

[Gonzo the Face]

TIT .... still think somebody{s} playing "good for my pocket games"

[Gonzo the Face]

Greed has no boundries......and in Thailand apparently no check point controls either....approx 1 baht in 6 weeks ????

...and no major crisis either

Edited February 11, 2016 by Gonzo the Face

[Gonzo the Face]

Games & more games

[topt]

Greed has no boundries......and in Thailand apparently no check point controls either....approx 1 baht in 6 weeks ????

...and no major crisis either

If you are that interested I suggest subscribing to some sort of FX reports. There are currently some good reasons why the $US is going through some volatility. Recent speculation that contrary to earlier belief it may not be the recipient of further rate rises any time soon.

See below comments from yesterday from XE.com analyst -

USD

The dollar's accelerated descent against the yen led it lower against most major peers. The dollar caught a short lived bounce Wednesday after the Fed chair sounded sanguine in the underlying shape of the world's biggest economy and kept rate hikes on the table. But her nod to global weakness reinforced the big picture view in which many see too many hurdles in the way of a rate hike. The Fed chair indicated that troubles brewing abroad and declining financial conditions at home were bad for the economy. Currencies are at risk of more volatility today, the last day of Fed chair testimony on Capitol Hill, and when data comes due on America's economic juggernaut job market.

[morrobay]

Greed has no boundries......and in Thailand apparently no check point controls either....approx 1 baht in 6 weeks ????

...and no major crisis either

If you are that interested I suggest subscribing to some sort of FX reports. There are currently some good reasons why the $US is going through some volatility. Recent speculation that contrary to earlier belief it may not be the recipient of further rate rises any time soon.

See below comments from yesterday from XE.com analyst -

USD

The dollar's accelerated descent against the yen led it lower against most major peers. The dollar caught a short lived bounce Wednesday after the Fed chair sounded sanguine in the underlying shape of the world's biggest economy and kept rate hikes on the table. But her nod to global weakness reinforced the big picture view in which many see too many hurdles in the way of a rate hike. The Fed chair indicated that troubles brewing abroad and declining financial conditions at home were bad for the economy. Currencies are at risk of more volatility today, the last day of Fed chair testimony on Capitol Hill, and when data comes due on America's economic juggernaut job market.

Why does the Fed have to be so worried about the global economy - thats their problem. What about the fact that banks in the U.S. cannot make any profit lending

money. Last I checked banks lending money to start up businesses was good for the U.S. economy. Let us not forget salvation - and hope Trump wins and does something

about "this Fed" and the U.S. economy/trade/bring manufacturing back.

Edited February 12, 2016 by morrobay