How Far Will The GBP Drop?

[Johnniey]

Any financial fortune teller out there?

First it's great timing the pound has dropped as I am going back for a holiday in 2 weeks.

Should I buy now or is there any hope it will drop more. I remember it was 38 about 25 years ago.

[jpinx]

Take a look at the long term history.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

There has been a peak in each of the last two years, but the pound then falls back to the 50-ish that it's worth now.

It all depends on your reason for looking -- tourist/spending money or longer term ?

[trd]

There will be uncertainty with the pound until after the EU referendum in June.

[ThaiKneeTim]

Currency speculators make life difficult for travellers, they will offload any currency they have if they think they might not get a return on their investment, fuelling the rush to sell, thereby causing the drop in value they're fearful of.

Meanwhile us travellers have to cope with the reduced buying power when we want to buy foreign currency.

Of course it will bounce back when the GBP has bottomed out and the speculators but, which will cause the GBP to peak above it's true value, that will be the time, if you're lucky enough, to be travelling or sending money overseas.

But for now I'll have to live with the fact that I won't be able to do as much building work on my place as I'd hoped.

[meatboy]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

[Johnniey]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

Oct 92 was a particularly bad time, especially as I had only pounds in Bangkok

[chiang mai]

A bird in the hand.....!

[Henryford]

My transfers from the UK have averaged 50 baht to the Pound over the past 7 years so i budget on that now. It will probably dip over the next few months but hopefully maintain that average. After all we are the best performing economy in the western world (pause for laughter).

[billd766]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

How about this as a sweet memory?

Forex 1997 v03.xls

[Puccini]

My crystal ball says that the rate for the GBP will remain above THB 49.50 for the next two weeks.

Edited February 26, 2016 by Puccini

[Enoon]

There will be uncertainty with the pound until after the EU referendum in June.

Or, in the event of a "leave" result, after the UK Parliament votes on the UK staying/leaving the EU.

A vote which may take place if the referendum result says leave. (There is no requirement/duty/obligation, under the British Constitution, for HM Government or Parliament to act upon the result of a referendum).

The UK cannot leave without a vote in Parliament (in favour of leaving) taking place.

Such a vote would repeal (nullify) the European Communities Act 1972 which permitted the UK to join.

Edited February 26, 2016 by Enoon

[PhillyBoy]

Its going to stay where it is for the short term. If they break away from EU it will probably drop to about $1.20. If they stay in it will most likely go back to about $1.50. IMO.

[riverhigh]

My crystal ball says that the rate for the GBP will remain above THB 49.50 for the next two weeks.

Agree, my crystal ball says the same. GBP should remain above THB 49.50 unless there is significant shift in the BREXIT polls. So far, all of the phone polls on Britain's membership of the EU suggest more people will vote to remain in the EU - and by a significant margin. Based on this, I think the risk of UK exiting the EU has already been priced into the GBP rate. Take your shortfall win and enjoy your holiday.

[Bangkok Barry]

still better than what it was this time last yr.47-48.

i remember over 30yrs.ago 38 for cash.

How about this as a sweet memory?

Forex 1997 v03.xls

Posting that does not bring happiness to the (British) people. Off with your head!

[i claudius]

Look for the pound to gain the beginning of next week,you can shoot me if it doesnt

Edited February 26, 2016 by i claudius

[chiang mai]

Joined the realm of crystal ball owners have we IC, it seems so out of character that you would. Too funny by far.

[Gandtee]

Yes. I remember 38 baht to the pond in 87. Didn't worry me at all as I was working. Now as a fixed pension pensioner it does tighten the top lip somewhat.

[eliotness]

The pound has been affected by the uncertainty of the UK leaving the EU. What I'd like to know is will there be a drop in the value of the Euro if the EU loses the UK ?

[nauseus]

Watch out all. It's currency and anything can happen! Especially in this world of currency (devaluation) wars!

GBP was 33 to the THB (about 1985) when the baht was more fixed to the USD than it is now.

When the USD finally loses grip (or is forced down) odds are that GBP may at least partially emulate that.

My advice? Buy physical BEER!

[Gary A]

Sooner or later, the Euro is doomed. The pound may drop some but it will come back like a biting sow. I'd much rather hold pounds than Euros.

[crazydrummerpauly]

My crystal ball says that the rate for the GBP will remain above THB 49.50 for the next two weeks.

Agree, my crystal ball says the same. GBP should remain above THB 49.50 unless there is significant shift in the BREXIT polls. So far, all of the phone polls on Britain's membership of the EU suggest more people will vote to remain in the EU - and by a significant margin. Based on this, I think the risk of UK exiting the EU has already been priced into the GBP rate. Take your shortfall win and enjoy your holiday.

And then there are the polls saying the opposite...that's polls for you.

[jpinx]

The pound has been affected by the uncertainty of the UK leaving the EU. What I'd like to know is will there be a drop in the value of the Euro if the EU loses the UK ?

Yes - and no -- depends what you value it against The baht will probably wobble a whole lot more as the new elections approach. The US$ will be all over the place while they decide to get DT in the white house. By the time that load of pantomimes is over there'll be new elections in Uk,,,,,,, We live in interesting times....

[little mary sunshine]

Bloomberg is estimating additional 6-9% decline before it starts back up!

[connda]

It depends. GREXIT or no GREXIT. If the 'little people' say, "GREXIT", they will be punished.

Edited February 26, 2016 by connda

[i claudius]

Joined the realm of crystal ball owners have we IC, it seems so out of character that you would. Too funny by far.

Get your gun ready

[mikiea]

A bird in the hand.....!

the poop will hit the fan when it will not be plausable to use the super double secrete thai special math to cook the books , as is being done now .... the exchange rate for the us dollar will be ... 1 for eleventyfortyniner .

[SidJames]

A bird in the hand.....!

the poop will hit the fan when it will not be plausable to use the super double secrete thai special math to cook the books , as is being done now .... the exchange rate for the us dollar will be ... 1 for eleventyfortyniner .

Couldn't agree more mikiea but how long can this military chef leave this pot bubbling away?

[chiang mai]

For gods sake, not again! When will people ever learn that forex rates are determined by demand and by demand alone, with 30 million tourists demanding THB it is naturally strong as a result.

[Thaimike370]

I think the pound will drop as low as 45 Baht over the next few weeks. If the UK leaves the EU, the pound will rapidly go above the 50s and as the UK has a strong and growing economy will continue to rise possibly back into the 70s. The EU will collapse without the 55 million pounds a day we are putting in, that will lead to the first and final audit of the EU books, the result of that will be interesting to say the least. Then we will close our borders as several countries in the EU are doing now, as a result of the Muslim invasion with all the problems that has and is creating. Should Turkey be admitted to the EU that will be the end of Europe as us know it. For the sake of Britain, I hope we vote OUT, then we can put the Great back into Britain and once again become a world leader instead of Merkel and co treating us as a third world country of no consequence. The next twelve months are going to prove extremely interesting.

[chiang mai]

Having read all the economic forecasts on this subject during the past week, you are the only person on the planet to have ever suggested that the Pound will strengthen into the 50's and then 70's in the event of Brexit.