Why is the U.S.Dollar heading south?

[las vegas hobo]

Why is the dollar becoming weak against the BT? I thought the Thailand economy was heading South?

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

[Riley'sLife]

Don't you know about what event is on the horizon?

try a search on YouTube for "usd 28 may"

[craigt3365]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

You mean the country with the largest GDP? Great quality of life for people who live there? Ample opportunity to advance yourself? Etc? Comparing the Thai economy to the US is a bit ridiculous. Plus, who knows how the Thai economy is doing. They've admitted to lying about this in the past.

Naam! Where are you? LOL

IMHO, a lot has to do with the stock market and where interest rates are going. The current Fed meeting held rates steady. When they boost them, the USD will probably get stronger. All that hot money will flow back to the US. IMHO. As long as the US economy is still strong....

Worth a read:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000514153

[emilymat]

As an ordinary joe, I also find the exchange rates a mystery and black art.

My only conclusions are that interest rates are the key, and the failure of the US to raise them had a major effect .

The Thai economy baffles me - but then I'm no economist. They seem to have money to throw around everywhere and yet I don't quite understand where it all comes from. In Pattaya (a bad example I suppose) almost everyone seems to have 'cash in hand' for work. Someone once told me it's all to do with the country's 'debt' situation and Thailand's is good in that respect.

We just have to grin and bear the 'yo-yo' of exchange rates. There seems to be no stability at all. As a Brit we are 'allegedly' suffering from the forthcoming referendum. I say allegedly, because if there were a 'remain' decision,and the pound took a boost, within days there would be some gloomy 'announcement' from the Bank of England or Chancellor in order to weaken the currency. I have no idea if American exporters grumble about the 'strength' of the dollar.but many UK companies complain the pound is too strong.

It's all a game in my view and currency 'strengths' seem to bear no relationships to the economic well being of the country.

[chiang mai]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

"Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA".

Heresy, go wash your mouth out with soap and water, you wont fit in here with lines like that - the official line here is that the Baht is going to crash and the country will be broke by Xmas, gotit?

[robblok]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

You mean the country with the largest GDP? Great quality of life for people who live there? Ample opportunity to advance yourself? Etc? Comparing the Thai economy to the US is a bit ridiculous. Plus, who knows how the Thai economy is doing. They've admitted to lying about this in the past.

Naam! Where are you? LOL

IMHO, a lot has to do with the stock market and where interest rates are going. The current Fed meeting held rates steady. When they boost them, the USD will probably get stronger. All that hot money will flow back to the US. IMHO. As long as the US economy is still strong....

Worth a read:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000514153

Dollar is going down because the economy did not do as good as projected and the fed held the interest rate. The Euro is up a bit against the Baht. Usually its a good thing for people from Europe to see the dollar go down as we get more Baht then. Too bad I just made a big transfer. The euro went up 60 setang in a few days.

[robblok]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

"Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA".

Heresy, go wash your mouth out with soap and water, you wont fit in here with lines like that - the official line here is that the Baht is going to crash and the country will be broke by Xmas, gotit?

Yep that is the official line the expats keep telling themselves.. forgetting that that Thailand has quite a bit of foreign reserve and a trade deficit. Now if there was no deficit.. then things could be different.

[Rimmer]

Moved to Banking Forum

[Koosdedooes]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

"Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA".

Heresy, go wash your mouth out with soap and water, you wont fit in here with lines like that - the official line here is that the Baht is going to crash and the country will be broke by Xmas, gotit?

Yes and the farang state pensioners will be getting THB 200 to the USD and 400 to the GBP and they can afford a short time with a slapper every week instead of once every 8 weeks and they can drink Heineken instead of Leo

[maewang99]

the dollar is headed south? even for folks who think everything is simple simon, none of the recent FX movements are even worth conjecturing about. hardly. but if you insist.. I have a Thai equity that earns more than 20% and has great prospects, I fact it owns the world's largest airbag fabric factory, and other stuff. and there hasn't been a single burb in it's business even post Yingluck rebates, latest coup and the horrific El Nino. the flows always go too far because folks like making money, basically. but for simple simon, he has to wait for the Baht to go to the teens against the dollar, you know, below the normal exchange rate of 20 baht per dollar.. and that was before the US was running it's current deficits, which it continues to do.

[3NUMBAS]

They don't make much now as their greedy corporations exported their manufacturing to China and left the folks back home in limbo and with diddlysquat to live on ...

[mcfish]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

"Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA".

Heresy, go wash your mouth out with soap and water, you wont fit in here with lines like that - the official line here is that the Baht is going to crash and the country will be broke by Xmas, gotit?

Thats been the official line since 1976 lol..still waiting

[anto]

Don't you know about what event is on the horizon?

try a search on YouTube for "usd 28 may"

Any truth in that ?

[Koosdedooes]

I am still looking for a chart which supports the OPs thesis that the USD is going south against the THB, in fact everything i have looked at shows the USD/Thb not doing very much at all

[craigt3365]

I am still looking for a chart which supports the OPs thesis that the USD is going south against the THB, in fact everything i have looked at shows the USD/Thb not doing very much at all

The USD hit a high of about 36.3 back in January. It's now about 34.8. So definitely down.

[55Jay]

Don't you know about what event is on the horizon?

try a search on YouTube for "usd 28 may"

According to Alex Jones and Fox News, that's the date Jesus will land on Earth, at Area 51, in a UFO, smite the Fed and the 1%, including both houses of congress, and bury them in those FEMA coffins, in graves dug by the Illuminati's Zombie Squads - aka: US Homeland Security.

The New World Order will be under the control of Hillary Clinton, which was the plan all along. With the annoying Fed and congress out of the way, Clinton will direct her legions of illegal aliens to dump all their dollars en masse, and issue an executive order establishing Bitcoin as the NWO's staple currency going forward. All other nations will fall in line, or else.....

According to Sarah Palin though, the date is BS! Because of Leap Year, she says the "real" date is the 29th of May. Anyone insisting on 28th of May is a crack pot and should be ignored.

[Koosdedooes]

I am still looking for a chart which supports the OPs thesis that the USD is going south against the THB, in fact everything i have looked at shows the USD/Thb not doing very much at all

The USD hit a high of about 36.3 back in January. It's now about 34.8. So definitely down.

Yes but hardly going "South" is it ?

[siamcrut]

My guess...

Because they are printing too much!

[Pib]

The dollar is doing just fine against the baht....lets take a look at the USD-THB exchange rate over the last 5 years with my hand drawn in long term trend line. All is well when looking at it from a recent history, longer term basis versus looking at it day by day, month by month. It's all a matter of time perspective.

[Naam]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

"Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA".

Heresy, go wash your mouth out with soap and water, you wont fit in here with lines like that - the official line here is that the Baht is going to crash and the country will be broke by Xmas, gotit?

Yep that is the official line the expats keep telling themselves.. forgetting that that Thailand has quite a bit of foreign reserve and a trade deficit. Now if there was no deficit.. then things could be different.

please be kind enough and tell me where to find Thailand's trade "deficit"

[Naam]

The dollar is doing just fine against the baht....lets take a look at the USD-THB exchange rate over the last 5 years with my hand drawn in long term trend line. All is well when looking at it from a recent history, longer term basis versus looking at it day by day, month by month. It's all a matter of time perspective.

Capture.JPG

sorry Pib but 5 years is not a long term trend. for that one has to look at 10 or even 15 years.

[Pib]

Naam,

Come on...let's get some serious long term in here....not just a mere 15 years....let's go back 56 years to Jan 1960 when it was 21 baht to the USD...and stayed that way for many years...then went up to around 25 baht for many years...then the Financial Crisis of the late 90's caused the baht to go down the tubes for many years....now over recent times it has recovered. Yea, all depends on your time perspective. P.S. I was stationed in the Thailand in the early 70's getting that 21 baht /dollar as a young military guy running the bars around Takhli, Ubon and U-Tapoa Air Bases...memories, memories.

[tropo]

I am still looking for a chart which supports the OPs thesis that the USD is going south against the THB, in fact everything i have looked at shows the USD/Thb not doing very much at all

The USD hit a high of about 36.3 back in January. It's now about 34.8. So definitely down.

People have extremely short memories when assessing currency value. Sure, it's down since January, but take a look at the whole of the last 12 months:

It's definitely UP!!

[Skeptic7]

Because it was way overvalued and commodities are going up?

Thailand economy is not that bad. Everyone works here unlike the welfare state of USA.

First sentence actually makes some sense...then you did yourself the injustice of more typing!

[chicowoodduck]

I really do not concern myself with the daily North and South direction of the US sawbuck....as long as I'm getting more than the Aussies I am the happy man......??

[marcusd]

Don't you know about what event is on the horizon?

try a search on YouTube for "usd 28 may"

Fanatic pushing Silver on assumptions US dollar will fail and if they print more money so what?

China already had their RESERVE prospects knocked out and with territorial aspirations I doubt they will ever be a reserve currency.

Yes I think US will hold and remain.

if I am wrong oh well I have Aussie dollars

Hahahhahah and bahts

[Naam]

the main reason why the Dollar is weaker not only vs. major currencies but also vs. "Mickey Mouse" currencies is the FED's, especially Ms. Yellen's, yada yada zigzagging as far as rate hikes are concerned. the expectations of a recovery that justifies a rate hike were not met. as simple as that!

[Skeptic7]

Naam,

Come on...let's get some serious long term in here....not just a mere 15 years....let's go back 56 years to Jan 1960 when it was 21 baht to the USD...and stayed that way for many years...then went up to around 25 baht for many years...then the Financial Crisis of the late 90's caused the baht to go down the tubes for many years....now over recent times it has recovered. Yea, all depends on your time perspective. P.S. I was stationed in the Thailand in the early 70's getting that 21 baht /dollar as a young military guy running the bars around Takhli, Ubon and U-Tapoa Air Bases...memories, memories.

Capture.JPG

Accurate on the rates, but the THB was pegged to the $USD until July 1997, so it was unnaturally overvalued before that.

Good read here: http://www.economist.com/node/151587

[tropo]

Naam,

Come on...let's get some serious long term in here....not just a mere 15 years....let's go back 56 years to Jan 1960 when it was 21 baht to the USD...and stayed that way for many years...then went up to around 25 baht for many years...then the Financial Crisis of the late 90's caused the baht to go down the tubes for many years....now over recent times it has recovered. Yea, all depends on your time perspective. P.S. I was stationed in the Thailand in the early 70's getting that 21 baht /dollar as a young military guy running the bars around Takhli, Ubon and U-Tapoa Air Bases...memories, memories.

Capture.JPG

Accurate on the rates, but the THB was pegged to the $USD until July 1997, so it was unnaturally overvalued before that.

Good read here: http://www.economist.com/node/151587

So the reality is that exchange rates more than about 5 years ago are irrelevant, as the rest was readjustment after the financial crisis.