May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[talahtnut]

15 hours ago, soalbundy said:

good one, even with a trashed pound they have a falling GDP and Brexit is still some way off.

The value of both the GBp and the $ has only only way to go..down.

Brexit or stay...  the economy of UK is mismanaged..That is the problem.

[soalbundy]

2 minutes ago, aright said:

I think we have been patient long enough. 18 months ago we were told in the first year 500000 jobs would be lost, there would be mass unemployment and the economy would be in tatters , that's not great forecasting  by your tribe is it?  So tell us what's your current forecast and how long do we have to wait?

depends on the outcome of the talks, I would say after a hard brexit you could wait as long as one year before disaster strikes. A soft brexit (if we remain in the customs union) would mean only a small amount of damage at first but an immediate fall in British influence world wide as the island would have no say in the EU and so no leverage, the much vaunted myth of the special relationship with the USA would be exposed for the lie that it is, Germany and France would be the new chums as they have the power to change things.

[aright]

9 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

How!

 

Oh wait, our tribe has issued forecast upon forecast and you haven't thought much of any of them, how's about your tribe making one for once, for the first time in fact! 

 

3 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

depends on the outcome of the talks, 

Exactly our forecast in a nutshell

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, aright said:

 

Exactly our forecast in a nutshell

 

You're not looking to make a forecast then, you're looking to provide a hindsight, statements of fact, after the fact! 

 

How about making a fan forecast, best case, worst case most probable case?

[soalbundy]

10 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

The value of both the GBp and the $ has only only way to go..down.

Brexit or stay...  the economy of UK is mismanaged..That is the problem.

It always was but they had North sea oil and the EU behind them after selling off the family silver. Now they have nothing else to sell and a depleted industry, as Napoleon said "A nation of shop keepers"

[aright]

6 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You're not looking to make a forecast then, you're looking to provide a hindsight, statements of fact, after the fact! 

 

How about making a fan forecast, best case, worst case most probable case?

After looking at the accuracy of the Remainers forecast......economy in tatters ...500000 jobs lost you won't get a similar flailing of arms or gnashing of teeth from me.

[soalbundy]

17 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

The value of both the GBp and the $ has only only way to go..down.

Brexit or stay...  the economy of UK is mismanaged..That is the problem.

The pound yes but the Dollar is a reserve currency, only if the amount of oil sold fell drastically (it has to be paid in Dollars) would the Dollar decline meaningfully but even so the industrial might of the USA is considerable,they have a lot of foreign and home grown scientists and engineers and are very innovative,when push comes to shove the USA rises above itself so while the Dollar may fall over the next two years I don't see its demise as a reserve currency. Even the battered Pound will find a floor from where it can drag itself but I don't have much hope that they will get above their knees. 

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, aright said:

After looking at the accuracy of the Remainers forecast......economy in tatters ...500000 jobs lost you won't get a similar flailing of arms or gnashing of teeth from me.

I found 15% on my first Google, I'm sure the rest aren't that hard  imagine. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-boe/bank-of-england-sees-up-to-75000-finance-job-losses-after-brexit-bbc-idUSKBN1D00MX

 

Come on, be a visionary, tell us what your brave new world will look like, give us a taste of what you've all been fighting so hard for, will they really bring back Morris dancing and shillings and pence?

[aright]

17 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I found 15% on my first Google, I'm sure the rest aren't that hard  imagine. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-boe/bank-of-england-sees-up-to-75000-finance-job-losses-after-brexit-bbc-idUSKBN1D00MX

 

Come on, be a visionary, tell us what your brave new world will look like, give us a taste of what you've all been fighting so hard for, will they really bring back Morris dancing and shillings and pence?

Can I reciprocate? Please tell us what you think the Elysium you want to stay in will look like politically and socially ten years from now?

 

 

 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, aright said:

Can I reciprocate? Please tell us what you think the Elysium you want to stay in will look like politically and socially ten years from now?

 

 

 

Do you always answer a question with a question?

 

You realise I'm only teasing you because you told us you had too much red wine last night.

[aright]

2 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Do you always answer a question with a question?

 

You realise I'm only teasing you because you told us you had too much red wine last night.

Please stop shouting 

[sandyf]

On 1/5/2018 at 11:37 PM, aright said:

Its certainly worth a reprint because I don't think its relevant to or you don't understand my question.The British electorate have a say through their vote who occupies or who is rejected from the highest Political position in the UK.

Where in your piece does it show the EU electorate having the same voting rights regarding the unelected European Commission?

Explanations aren't necessary just identify the sentences.  

 

Of course you wouldn't think its relevant if it went over your head.

"The British electorate have a say through their vote who occupies or who is rejected from the highest Political position in the UK."   -  and that vote carries through to the nomination of the EU commissioner.

 

"Where in your piece does it show the EU electorate having the same voting rights regarding the unelected European Commission?"  -   I can only assume that this statement was a bit too difficult "nominations must then be approved by the EU parliament," - Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't the British portion of the EU electorate vote in the EU parliament elections.

 

The EU Commission is effectively the EU cabinet and commissioners are voted into office by a duly elected parliament, unlike UK cabinet ministers picked by an autocratic prime minister.

[aright]

23 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Of course you wouldn't think its relevant if it went over your head.

"The British electorate have a say through their vote who occupies or who is rejected from the highest Political position in the UK."   -  and that vote carries through to the nomination of the EU commissioner.

 

"Where in your piece does it show the EU electorate having the same voting rights regarding the unelected European Commission?"  -   I can only assume that this statement was a bit too difficult "nominations must then be approved by the EU parliament," - Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't the British portion of the EU electorate vote in the EU parliament elections.

 

The EU Commission is effectively the EU cabinet and commissioners are voted into office by a duly elected parliament, unlike UK cabinet ministers picked by an autocratic prime minister.

 

21 hours ago, aright said:

 

 

 The Commission has a President (currently Jean-Claude Juncker); unlike the other 27 commissioners he is personally elected by the European Parliament, however his was the only name on the ballot paper, not exactly democratic is it?

As I recall when I voted at the last general election there were many names from a variety of Party's on the ballot paper. That's what I call democracy. You would obviously prefer to be supplicant to an unelected Commission who you would never want to get rid of because if you did there is no process.

Additionally, once something becomes an EU law, the Parliament has no ability to propose a change to this law. All the power is given to the Commission. It is clear the public's elected representatives do not matter in the EU. It's a 'club' to push through laws which would be rejected by national Parliaments as evidenced by Poland, Hungary etc..

I don't overestimate discerning members of the public but I also don't underestimate the political malice of significant members of both political parties and members of this forum when it comes to respecting the result of the Referendum.   

Sorry but I can't make it any simpler and you still haven't answered the question how do we get rid of the unelected Commissioners if we don't like their economic results or their legislation

Edited January 7, 2018 by aright

[Orac]

Sorry but I can't make it any simpler and you still haven't answered the question how do we get rid of the unelected Commissioners if we don't like their economic results or their legislation

Same as in the UK - a vote of no-confidence by the wholly elected parliament.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[aright]

5 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

 

Same as in the UK - a vote of no-confidence by the wholly elected parliament.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

The question was how do the electorate have a say in getting rid of them. In the UK I can use my vote to reject or endorse the next PM. I can't do that directly in the EU. How much power do I have if my thoughts are at odds with the EU parliament. 

[Naam]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

the Dollar is a reserve currency, only if the amount of oil sold fell drastically (it has to be paid in Dollars)

wrong! that was the done thing but that this is/was mandatory is nothing but a fairy tale. Iran accepts gold for oil from India and Russia is delivering oil to China based on RUB/CNY swaps. oil producers are free to accept any freely convertible currency or even commodity as payment based on prevailing forex/commodity USD rates.

[simoh1490]

The brain drain all over again, I remember that period well, who says history doesn't repeat: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-uk-university-eu-academics-resign-immigration-brexodus-citizens-europe-a8143796.html

 

But hey, if we're going to Brexit it's probably not too important right, I mean, we're not going to be a part of the EU any more so who needs those foreign Euro languages, we'll probably all stop going there anyway after Brexit, instead we'll go to, er, um The Isle of Man and the Orkneys for our holidays, or who knows, maybe Bridlington and Hull will make be in revival.

[oldhippy]

Aaaahhh The Isle of Man.....

Jimi still plays there?

 

[talahtnut]

16 hours ago, soalbundy said:

The pound yes but the Dollar is a reserve currency, only if the amount of oil sold fell drastically (it has to be paid in Dollars) would the Dollar decline meaningfully but even so the industrial might of the USA is considerable,they have a lot of foreign and home grown scientists and engineers and are very innovative,when push comes to shove the USA rises above itself so while the Dollar may fall over the next two years I don't see its demise as a reserve currency. Even the battered Pound will find a floor from where it can drag itself but I don't have much hope that they will get above their knees. 

Oil is a finite resource, when it runs out, food will be the next problem.

The UK is unable to feed 70m now without importing.

The UK and US economies are unsustainable at present consumption rates.

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Of course you wouldn't think its relevant if it went over your head.

"The British electorate have a say through their vote who occupies or who is rejected from the highest Political position in the UK."   -  and that vote carries through to the nomination of the EU commissioner.

 

"Where in your piece does it show the EU electorate having the same voting rights regarding the unelected European Commission?"  -   I can only assume that this statement was a bit too difficult "nominations must then be approved by the EU parliament," - Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't the British portion of the EU electorate vote in the EU parliament elections.

 

The EU Commission is effectively the EU cabinet and commissioners are voted into office by a duly elected parliament, unlike UK cabinet ministers picked by an autocratic prime minister.

The EU Commission is merely approved by the EP. It is not an election and there is little choice of who they get to approve. Commissioners are rather difficult to remove, too! 

 

At least UK cabinet ministers are generally already fairly elected MPs by their constituents to qualify.

Edited January 7, 2018 by nauseus

[nauseus]

20 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Oil is a finite resource, when it runs out, food will be the next problem.

The UK is unable to feed 70m now without importing.

The UK and US economies are unsustainable at present consumption rates.

 

UK and US cosumption rates are not comparable. Sorry.

[nauseus]

36 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The brain drain all over again, I remember that period well, who says history doesn't repeat: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-uk-university-eu-academics-resign-immigration-brexodus-citizens-europe-a8143796.html

 

But hey, if we're going to Brexit it's probably not too important right, I mean, we're not going to be a part of the EU any more so who needs those foreign Euro languages, we'll probably all stop going there anyway after Brexit, instead we'll go to, er, um The Isle of Man and the Orkneys for our holidays, or who knows, maybe Bridlington and Hull will make be in revival.

By the noises made by some of these so-called academics (and students) recently this perceived loss might amount to a benefit! 

[aright]

45 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The brain drain all over again, I remember that period well, who says history doesn't repeat: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-uk-university-eu-academics-resign-immigration-brexodus-citizens-europe-a8143796.html

 

But hey, if we're going to Brexit it's probably not too important right, I mean, we're not going to be a part of the EU any more so who needs those foreign Euro languages, we'll probably all stop going there anyway after Brexit, instead we'll go to, er, um The Isle of Man and the Orkneys for our holidays, or who knows, maybe Bridlington and Hull will make be in revival.

Fish and Chips and pints of Cripplecock cider in Hull........the perfect holiday.

[simoh1490]

9 minutes ago, nauseus said:

By the noises made by some of these so-called academics (and students) recently this perceived loss might amount to a benefit! 

First, it was so-called economists, now it's so-called academics and students, have you ever listened to yourself! 

[simoh1490]

1 minute ago, aright said:

Fish and Chips and pints of Cripplecock cider in Hull........the perfect holiday.

I'm in! 

[aright]

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

First, it was so-called economists, now it's so-called academics and students, have you ever listened to yourself! 

I listen to myself all the time. There is no one more qualified to give an opinion.

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

wrong! that was the done thing but that this is/was mandatory is nothing but a fairy tale. Iran accepts gold for oil from India and Russia is delivering oil to China based on RUB/CNY swaps. oil producers are free to accept any freely convertible currency or even commodity as payment based on prevailing forex/commodity USD rates.

Yes I realize that (remember what happened to Saddam when he said he would accept Euro's for his oil instead of dollars) but it is still largely dollar transactions for oil,metals or minerals (you don't see oil or copper priced in yuan or rubles on the stock exchanges) as you say yourself it is based on USD rates when an alternative is used. It was largely due to oil payments being made in dollars that gave the dollar its reserve currency status, this is slowly being weakened but its still a long way to go before the dollar isn't used at least as a basis for payments.

[soalbundy]

6 minutes ago, aright said:

Fish and Chips and pints of Cripplecock cider in Hull........the perfect holiday.

can hardly wait.

[aright]

5 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

can hardly wait.

I can understand that it would be difficult for you to enjoy the 2017 European City of Culture.

Best stay in Surin, I spent 2 weeks there one weekend.

[soalbundy]

47 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Oil is a finite resource, when it runs out, food will be the next problem.

The UK is unable to feed 70m now without importing.

The UK and US economies are unsustainable at present consumption rates.

 

They got through the depression by letting the workers starve,even then there was no rebellion, economies are basically unsustainable in all developed countries, only trust keeps it going, I trust that I will keep getting my pension, workers trust that they can still use their credit cards and home owners trust that their homes will keep rising in value, politicians trust that the wont be lynched or shot, didn't work out for Ceaucescu in Romania. Oil wont run out in the foreseeable future, if scarce it will just get more expensive,there are ways around oil these days.