Baht depreciation expected

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

Not sure what you mean exactly with the end of your sentence (...untill one lands at...).

But it is incorrect to compare the turnover (f ex of tourism or exports) to GDP.

 

Of course you may use these % when you compare Thailand to Spain, or Thailand now vs Thailand before. That would give you an approximate idea of relative importance or evolution.

 

But if tourism is 12% of GDP, export 68%, then you come to far more than 100% of GDP if you similarly calculate the % of agriculture, banking, government, insurance,...

 

 

I continue to believe you are combining multiple views of the same numbers, the opposite of exports in a GDP sence is goods and services that are not exported, the sum of those two things equalling 100%. To try and combine tourism and exports into the same total will of course not work since tourism is already combined in that portion of GDP that is not exported.

[morrobay]

I dont know how to read this : Is that a strong sell for baht or dollar ? And if for the baht , why ?

 

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-thb-technical

Edited March 31, 2018 by morrobay

[simoh1490]

2 minutes ago, morrobay said:

I dont know how to read this : Is that a strong sell for baht or dollar ? And if for the baht , why ?

 

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-thb-technical

Somebody thinks USD is going to get stronger but it's not very scientific, it's nothing more than the sum of recent trades, looking at a 200 day MA will give a better view.

[janclaes47]

4 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Somebody thinks USD is going to get stronger but it's not very scientific, it's nothing more than the sum of recent trades, looking at a 200 day MA will give a better view.

If someone expect the USD to get stronger, then why would they advice to sell the USD against THB?

[morrobay]

What would some one conclude about the dollar going forward  given :

Interest rates rising, strong jobs report (about 300, 000 added a month or so ago), fiscal policy infrastructure projects ( job creation + enhanced business environment) in pipeline. ?

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

If someone expect the USD to get stronger, then why would they advice to sell the USD against THB?

The strong sell above is for the baht. Ie you get more dollars now than later.

[janclaes47]

59 minutes ago, morrobay said:

The strong sell above is for the baht. Ie you get more dollars now than later.

 

The way I read it is the other way around, and if you look at how much the dollar has declined and continues to decline at a high rate, that would also be the logical conclusion.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar would exchange at 30 Baht in a month from now, which mean that you then get more dollar for your baht.

[jerry921]

On 3/30/2018 at 9:53 PM, morrobay said:

What would some one conclude about the dollar going forward  given :

Interest rates rising, strong jobs report (about 300, 000 added a month or so ago), fiscal policy infrastructure projects ( job creation + enhanced business environment) in pipeline. ?

US Interest rates rising (faster than the interest rates of other currencies) should make the dollar stronger (than those other currencies). This is a first-order effect.

 

Strong jobs report is a second-order factor, the strong jobs report probably indicates interest rates will rise or continue to rise, which then makes the dollar stronger.

 

Infrastructure projects creating (temporary) jobs which cause the fed to raise rates is a third-order factor. (When you have one thing affecting another that affects a third, in the end you've not got much attributable effect, I consider 2nd order effects minimal and 3rd order effects negligible).

 

So everything you listed would be positive for the dollar, except that the infrastructure is to be paid for with deficits, i.e. by printing money, which weakens the dollar, directly. Since the negative effect of deficit infrastructure spending is more direct than the 3rd-order positive effects, I consider it a negative for the dollar, certainly in the short term and probably in the long term as well.

 

Also there are a few things that are negative for the dollar that you didn't list, but this post is long enough.

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by jerry921
clarity, edit poor analogy

[Stargeezr]

The USD, in good shape or bad shape compared to the Thai Baht.

ell in the USA, there was a housing crisis. Has that been fixed or can

your still buy a house, no moey down, etc. Move out of Mom and Dads basement

with your 2 ten dollar an hour jobs at MacDonalds into a 200 thousand dollar house, where

you discover stuff called. Mortgage, Utility bills, yes the Power, Gas or oil, and fees galore for

getting these services to your place. You find out that air conditioning or heat is not free.

you let the house go and move back to the basement.  Hmmm. is that why the USA is

still in the soup financially? The government is still getting paid big wages for lots of

rich people, such as the President and his family, all the Governers and their families,

the local mayors and councillers and their families. How about the Military of the USA and

all of its costs, or the 2 B747 that fly everytime the President goes somewhere?

Geezer

[talahtnut]

5 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

The USD, in good shape or bad shape compared to the Thai Baht.

ell in the USA, there was a housing crisis. Has that been fixed or can

your still buy a house, no moey down, etc. Move out of Mom and Dads basement

with your 2 ten dollar an hour jobs at MacDonalds into a 200 thousand dollar house, where

you discover stuff called. Mortgage, Utility bills, yes the Power, Gas or oil, and fees galore for

getting these services to your place. You find out that air conditioning or heat is not free.

you let the house go and move back to the basement.  Hmmm. is that why the USA is

still in the soup financially? The government is still getting paid big wages for lots of

rich people, such as the President and his family, all the Governers and their families,

the local mayors and councillers and their families. How about the Military of the USA and

all of its costs, or the 2 B747 that fly everytime the President goes somewhere?

Geezer

Welcome to the Matrix.

[simoh1490]

The race to the bottom is on, it looks THB may suffer:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-08/cruelest-month-for-thai-baht-could-be-worse-than-usual-this-year

[jerry921]

5 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

The race to the bottom is on, it looks THB may suffer:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-08/cruelest-month-for-thai-baht-could-be-worse-than-usual-this-year

Thanks, that seasonality is good to know. Makes late May the best time to move big sums to Thailand to fund 800K Baht retirement extension accounts or condo purchases (lacking a reliable crystal ball, these kinds of observations are the only thing that helps to beat random luck).

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, jerry921 said:

Thanks, that seasonality is good to know. Makes late May the best time to move big sums to Thailand to fund 800K Baht retirement extension accounts or condo purchases (lacking a reliable crystal ball, these kinds of observations are the only thing that helps to beat random luck).

Don't forget there are two sides to any exchange, if the GBP or USD side for example also falls the net effect will be zero.

[lannarebirth]

Not specifically THB related and apropos of nothing,but interesting nonetheless. I didn't know where to put it, so I'll put it here:

 

 

Edited April 9, 2018 by lannarebirth

[simoh1490]

3 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

Not specifically THB related and apropos of nothing,but interesting nonetheless. I didn't know where to put it, so I'll put it here:

 

 

I think this is about the Philippines where the central store of rice has been depleted and the government has issued an emergency order to buy 250,000 tons of rough rice or paddy (palay in tagalog) - it's not clear to me why the central reserve store of rice has been depleted but it looks as though demand has outstripped supply. Rice yield has always been a problem in the PI for some reason - one story here: http://www.manilatimes.net/nfa-runs-out-of-rice-for-mmanila/390353/

[DonaldBattles]

On 4/10/2018 at 6:11 AM, simoh1490 said:

I think this is about the Philippines where the central store of rice has been depleted and the government has issued an emergency order to buy 250,000 tons of rough rice or paddy (palay in tagalog) - it's not clear to me why the central reserve store of rice has been depleted but it looks as though demand has outstripped supply. Rice yield has always been a problem in the PI for some reason - one story here: http://www.manilatimes.net/nfa-runs-out-of-rice-for-mmanila/390353/

If you have ever lived in the Philippines you can understand why. They are lazy and politically motivated by communist. It will never get any better. What kind of a country is it if they can't feed themselves?

[lannarebirth]

5 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

Not specifically THB related and apropos of nothing,but interesting nonetheless. I didn't know where to put it, so I'll put it here:

 

 

 

I don't really follow the news, but it's a bullish chart. Other grains are also looking a bit bullish. The reason could be just as you say but breakouts in grains are generally noteworthy.

[janclaes47]

If anyone still doubted that BOT is artificially keeping the baht strong look at what it does today.

 

Today Thai markets still closed, see how all currencies USD/GBP/EU are all significantly appreciating against THB.

[simoh1490]

37 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

If anyone still doubted that BOT is artificially keeping the baht strong look at what it does today.

 

Today Thai markets still closed, see how all currencies USD/GBP/EU are all significantly appreciating against THB.

 

[janclaes47]

9 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

50 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

If anyone still doubted that BOT is artificially keeping the baht strong look at what it does today.

 

Today Thai markets still closed, see how all currencies USD/GBP/EU are all significantly appreciating against THB.

 

I assume you were looking in a mirror when you made the post.

 

Just to clear it up for you, only because you are obsessed by money and people who have it, doesn't make you a financial expert in any way.

 

What I clearly observe is that all currencies I mention have made an almost 1% gain in a single day against the THB.

Edited April 16, 2018 by janclaes47

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

 

I assume you were looking in a mirror when you made the post.

 

Just to clear it up for you, only because you are obsessed by money and people who have it, doesn't make you a financial expert in any way.

 

What I clearly observe is that all currencies I mention have made an almost 1% gain in a single day against the THB.

I have not bothered to look into why THB has fallen in value or why other currencies might have gained, but I am supremely confident that whatever the reason, it is not as a result of BOT intervention. And since there is a seasonal fall in the value of THB every year at this time, plus the banks have been closed for four days, it might be best to simply wait and see before unpacking the conspiracy theories! That said, several of the Thai investment houses, CIMBT and Kasikorn have forecasted a fall in the value of THB by end 2Q, one to as low as 37 against USD.

[joeyg]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-29/thailand-copes-with-super-baht-20-years-after-currency-crashed 

 

[darrendsd]

31 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I have not bothered to look into why THB has fallen in value or why other currencies might have gained, but I am supremely confident that whatever the reason, it is not as a result of BOT intervention. And since there is a seasonal fall in the value of THB every year at this time, plus the banks have been closed for four days, it might be best to simply wait and see before unpacking the conspiracy theories! That said, several of the Thai investment houses, CIMBT and Kasikorn have forecasted a fall in the value of THB by end 2Q, one to as low as 37 against USD.

Do you have a link to this? Not being rude just would like to check it out

[simoh1490]

9 hours ago, darrendsd said:

Do you have a link to this? Not being rude just would like to check it out

I spotted the news second hand here: http://www.samuitimes.com/baht-to-weaken-to-37-to-the-us-dollar-according-to-kbank-forecast/ ...but I haven't seen it reported anywhere else.

 

I'm looking now for a reference to the seasonal fall in value of THB and will post that if/when I find something.

 

Finally, the current fall in value of THB seems extreme, I suspect it's Syria related combined with the banks in TH being closed.

 

Another earlier statement regarding weakening here, this one seems to think the Baht will weaken because of the US/TH interest rate differential but I don't think that's correct, there's much more to the picture than just interest rates. http://thairesidents.com/money/analysts-thai-baht-will-likely-weaken-mid-2018-onwards/

 

EDIT TO ADD: Here's a news piece from 2016 on the subject of THB weakening (which was wrong  of course), perhaps the assumption today is that USD will strengthen which seems unlikely: 

 

"The Thai authorities have pushed back the timetable for a return to civilian rule to the second half of 2017 from February 2016 originally. The above mentioned factors are expected to remain and continue to be a drag on the Thai baht.

“We forecast USD/THB at 36.70 by end-2016 on the assumption of a continued strong USD”, added Commerzbank".

https://www.econotimes.com/Thai-baht-to-remain-on-weakening-trend-USD-THB-likely-to-trade-at-3670-by-end-2016-265139

 

Edited April 16, 2018 by simoh1490

[simoh1490]

Both worth reading on this subject:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/china-boosts-its-u-s-treasuries-holdings-by-most-in-six-months

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/trump-blasts-china-russia-for-devaluing-currencies-as-fed-hikes

Edited April 16, 2018 by simoh1490

[simoh1490]

The article on the seasonal weakness of THB is here, I had posted it earlier but forgot about it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-08/cruelest-month-for-thai-baht-could-be-worse-than-usual-this-year

[lannarebirth]

6 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I spotted the news second hand here: http://www.samuitimes.com/baht-to-weaken-to-37-to-the-us-dollar-according-to-kbank-forecast/ ...but I haven't seen it reported anywhere else.

 

 

Doubtful. The Baht could weaken here but it has a descending 200 dma @32.49 (and falling) to get through. Beyond that, it has a descending (gently) 200 wma @ 33.93 (and falling) to get through. I don't see 36-37  in the cards by year end.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2018 by lannarebirth

[simoh1490]

I suspect the earlier poster was looking at offshore rates, the onshore average rate is currently 44.28 against GBP which is not that far from where it was last week, especially given the holidays.

[NutsMango]

Stable democratic government

 

Booming economy and GDP per capita

 

World class police force and justice system

 

The poor, sick, and elderly taken care off

 

... I sure understand why THB is and WILL get stronger

[simoh1490]

28 minutes ago, NutsMango said:

Stable democratic government

 

Booming economy and GDP per capita

 

World class police force and justice system

 

The poor, sick, and elderly taken care off

 

... I sure understand why THB is and WILL get stronger

I have a niggling suspicion you don't understand what things make a currency strong.