Why is Thai baht strengthening?

[EricTh]

Thai baht seems to be strengthening against a number of currencies like USD, Chinese Yuan, Singapore dollar, Japanese Yen recently.
 

Can anybody tell me what's the reason?

Edited January 12, 2017 by EricTh

[Chicog]

Because they're weakening?

[Pib]

What Chicog said.

[Dante99]

Everybody knows that a nobody knows.

[FlorC]

Bacause the THB is a better currency , and Thailand isn't in debt 2, 3 times their GNP ?

[abrahamzvi]

Simply because investors are gaining confidence in the economic development of Thailand and its political stability.

[KhunBENQ]

Moved from CM forum to Jobs Economy Banking Business Investments.

 

Join the other threads about currency developments.

[OJAS]

How long before the THB rises to parity with the GBP, I wonder?

[Junkyarddog]

I had a Thai girl explain it to me, so Ill pass it along to you.

"Because why not."

[Peterw42]

Isnt the Baht strong because oil price is down, Thailand imports 100% of it oil and everything runs on oil. oil down = Baht up

[natway09]

Because Thailand has no Brexit nor Donald & exports are OK

[chiang mai]

From another thread on the subject:

 

FWIW the baht has continued to fall against USD as per the past 90 day MA.

Edited January 12, 2017 by chiang mai

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

1 hour ago, abrahamzvi said:

Simply because investors are gaining confidence in the economic development of Thailand and its political stability.

5555 Then FDI's and capital flows would have showed that but unfortunately its not. Thailand have had B 700 billion in capital outflows since Trump has been elected and FDI's are still below democratic elected government levels (3 years later).

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

19 minutes ago, natway09 said:

Because Thailand has no Brexit nor Donald & exports are OK

Nothing to do with exports as they have still declined yoy 2015 vs 2016.

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

Nothing to do with exports as they have still declined yoy 2015 vs 2016.

 

Two things:

 

It looks to me as though exports are flat, YOY or do you have better detail? http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

I was looking for something on capital outflows and couldn't find much data, what's your source please for the THB 700 bill?

 

I don't dispute or disagree with what you've written but I am trying to firm up on fact to solidify the frame work I wrote in the post 12 link.

Edited January 12, 2017 by chiang mai

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

26 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Isnt the Baht strong because oil price is down, Thailand imports 100% of it oil and everything runs on oil. oil down = Baht up

Oil imports is reflected in the trade balance and that's been positive for many years. With the lower oil price the trade balance didn't turn more positive as it was off set by lower exports. The Baht is too small to play a leading role in FX and rather flows the decrease or increase in the value of major currencies. That means that normal things happening in the country don't influence the value of the Baht as much as things happening in the US for example.

[theswedishguy]

Most western money have no value today. If you check your governments banks page they say: The value of the money is what the market sets it at. 

The days with money backed by value is gone in west thanks to fragmented banking. This is a new fenomen since many countries as late as 1960-1970 had real value in gold backing the currency. 

 

In west today 97% of the total money don't exist: its digital money. You have to understand this system to understand why money fluctuates in value and why we have bank crashes every 10 year. 

 

Someone, often the goverment mints 100 currency. This is lend to banks. The banks in fragmented banking are allowed to lend out 8-12 times the amount of money they have. The 100 = The bank can lend out 800-1200 currency. Suddenly "money" is created and generates interest to the bank. Yes: In west: we pay interest in something that don't exist.

 

Most nationalistic countries like Thailand don't allow for money to be transfered out of the country. Therefore they can defend the value/lock the value of the currency. Many western countries had like this until late 1980is. This is  the reason why we with foreign currency only loose 0.5-1% when we exchange money to Baht. They want our foreign money.  
Compare this exchange euro to dollar: You loose 7-10% each time. All "open" currencies have this bank tax. 

 

Thailand have locked their currency to USD. If USD up against you currency = Thai baht up. If USD down = cheaper Baht.

 

Thats is the real reason. 

Western currency have today no value in the real world. Its just like the stock market: a big gambling house. I wish western countries cared about its own countries: Why should companies be allowed to bring out huge amount of money? Why should foreigners be able to buy land/house and so on.. But in brainwashed west: Thats normal. We are just tools to pay tax and make ThePower richer with interest on something that don't exist. 

Edited January 12, 2017 by theswedishguy

[thaihome]

7 minutes ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

5555 Then FDI's and capital flows would have showed that but unfortunately its not. Thailand have had B 700 billion in capital outflows since Trump has been elected and FDI's are still below democratic elected government levels (3 years later).

 

Could you provide some context and a link for that number of capital outflows since November 2016? 

 

 Though there has been indeed a general movement into the USD due to the Fed's rate increase and anticipation of further increases as well as Trump’s potential infrastructure program, I haven't heard of a massive outflow from Thailand such as Malaysia is currently experiencing. Also, due to political instability in the past, the overall foreign capital holdings in Thailan are not real high at this point. This may change if the SET continues to climb in 2017. 

 

I think the Baht may weaken a bit through 2017, but I do believe there is chance foreign funds may "discover" the SET again and if the world economy continues its slow growth and demand for Thai exports improves accordingly,  there may be some strengthening. I don't think it will be much, at best maybe a holding action, while other developing currencies continue to weaken.

 

TH 

 

[fruitman]

2 hours ago, abrahamzvi said:

Simply because investors are gaining confidence in the economic development of Thailand and its political stability.

 

Sounds reasonable but what if thailand gets new elections?? 

 

I agree there must be big buyers for the Baht right now, but who can they be? Is it the chinese? They also are buying the bitcoins now since they aren't allowed to buy us$ or other big currencies i read.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, theswedishguy said:

Most western money have no value today. If you check your governments banks page they say: The value of the money is what the market sets it at. 

The days with money backed by value is gone in west thanks to fragmented banking. This is a new fenomen since many countries as late as 1960-1970 had real value in gold backing the currency. 

 

In west today 97% of the total money don't exist: its digital money. You have to understand this system to understand why money fluctuates in value and why we have bank crashes every 10 year. 

 

Someone, often the goverment mints 100 currency. This is lend to banks. The banks in fragmented banking are allowed to lend out 8-12 times the amount of money they have. The 100 = The bank can lend out 800-1200 currency. Suddenly "money" is created and generates interest to the bank. Yes: In west: we pay interest in something that don't exist.

 

Most nationalistic countries like Thailand don't allow for money to be transfered out of the country. Therefore they can defend the value/lock the value of the currency. Many western countries had like this until late 1980is. This is  the reason why we with foreign currency only loose 0.5-1% when we exchange money. They want our foreign money.  
Compare this exchange euro to dollar: You loose 7-10% each time. All "open" currencies have this bank tax. 

 

Thailand have locked their currency to USD. If USD up against you currency = Thai baht up. If USD down = cheaper Baht.

 

Thats is the real reason. 

Western currency have today no value in the real world. Its just like the stock market: a big gambling house. I wish western countries cared about its own countries: Why should companies be allowed to bring out huge amount of money? Why should foreigners be able to buy land/house and so on.. But in brainwashed west: Thats normal. We are just tools to pay tax and make ThePower richer with interest on something that don't exist. 

 

The Baht is not locked to USD, BOT operates a managed float which has seen THB in a range from 29 to 36, hardly locked!

[Khon Kaen Dave]

Not one of you financial experts guys,but i thought that the GBP fell against the THB due to Teresa May commenting about a hard Brexit. I dunno,but as long as its warm,im happy.

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, Khon Kaen Dave said:

Not one of you financial experts guys,but i thought that the GBP fell against the THB due to Teresa May commenting about a hard Brexit. I dunno,but as long as its warm,im happy.

 

Correct, on both points.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

7 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Two things:

 

It looks to me as though exports are flat, YOY or do you have better detail? http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

I was looking for something on capital outflows and couldn't find much data, what's your source please for the THB 700 bill?

 

I don't dispute or disagree with what you've written but I am trying to firm up on fact to solidify the frame work I wrote in the post 12 link.

Hi I think I read the B 700 bn in Bloomberg the other day but didn't bookmark the article. The article was about SEA currencies and their outlook. I had a look at the Bank of Thailand stats in the link (the financial account is the one to worry about). As for exports it seems as if it will be $ 1 bn below the 2015 figure in nominal terms thus after inflation (in real terms) you look at a further 1 to 2% drop.

 

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=644&language=ENG   please note this table is in USD and not Baht.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

7 minutes ago, thaihome said:

 

Could you provide some context and a link for that number of capital outflows since November 2016? 

 

 Though there has been indeed a general movement into the USD due to the Fed's rate increase and anticipation of further increases as well as Trump’s potential infrastructure program, I haven't heard of a massive outflow from Thailand such as Malaysia is currently experiencing. Also, due to political instability in the past, the overall foreign capital holdings in Thailan are not real high at this point. This may change if the SET continues to climb in 2017. 

 

I think the Baht may weaken a bit through 2017, but I do believe there is chance foreign funds may "discover" the SET again and if the world economy continues its slow growth and demand for Thai exports improves accordingly,  there may be some strengthening. I don't think it will be much, at best maybe a holding action, while other developing currencies continue to weaken.

 

TH 

 

Please look at my reply to chiangmai.

[Roger Lee]

What do you mean?  It takes more Thai baht to match a dollar now than it has in recent memory.  I remember in 2013 the dollar tanked vs the baht.  Check the link or check the history or am I missing something?

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

[Kabula]

History has shown us that all paper backed by nothing in time always collapses.

 

Spend your money and enjoy it now.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Kabula
Correction

[chiang mai]

12 minutes ago, SOUTHERNSTAR said:

Hi I think I read the B 700 bn in Bloomberg the other day but didn't bookmark the article. The article was about SEA currencies and their outlook. I had a look at the Bank of Thailand stats in the link (the financial account is the one to worry about). As for exports it seems as if it will be $ 1 bn below the 2015 figure in nominal terms thus after inflation (in real terms) you look at a further 1 to 2% drop.

 

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=644&language=ENG   please note this table is in USD and not Baht.

 

It seems the total value of bonds held in Thailand by foreigners is around baht 700 billion so the article you read may have transposed numbers or whatever, capital outflows of THB 700 bill. would be an earthquake moment since outflows of around 12 billion baht are considered quite high.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/business/EconomyAndTourism/30253476

 

All the news I was able to find on this subject starts around 2015 with inflows as a result of Brexit and then muted outflows as the Ringgit crashes, otherwise it's business as usual out there.

 

 

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, Roger Lee said:

What do you mean?  It takes more Thai baht to match a dollar now than it has in recent memory.  I remember in 2013 the dollar tanked vs the baht.  Check the link or check the history or am I missing something?

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

 

You're missing something, probably more than just one thing.

 

If it takes more baht to buy one dollar that means the dollar is stronger. Right now it takes circa 35.5 baht to buy one dollar, when Baht strengthened against USD it took only 29 baht to buy one dollar.

Edited January 12, 2017 by chiang mai

[GMajor]

26 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

The Baht is not locked to USD, BOT operates a managed float which has seen THB in a range from 29 to 36, hardly locked!

 

Please specify your timeline.

[sanukjim]

3 hours ago, Chicog said:

Because they're weakening?

Chicog,To his answer you could have added "DUH"