It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[funandsuninbangkok]

Interesting analysis on relationship between rents and housing values. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-18/stagnant-rents-haunt-australia-s-housing-horror-movie

 

Intersting here since rents are same as they were in 2007

 

how could sales prices climb without increase in rents?  Credit bubble?

 

NO!  REPEAT AFTER ME!!!!

 

THERE IS NO BUBBLE!!!!!

[trogers]

6 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Interesting analysis on relationship between rents and housing values. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-18/stagnant-rents-haunt-australia-s-housing-horror-movie

 

Intersting here since rents are same as they were in 2007

 

how could sales prices climb without increase in rents?  Credit bubble?

 

NO!  REPEAT AFTER ME!!!!

 

THERE IS NO BUBBLE!!!!!

Since those QEs in USA, EU and Japan, all asset classes in both the financial markets and real estate boomed way beyond fundamentals.

 

Like a bloated carcass with excessive blood, a boom is viewed as the norm and not a bubble.

 

But there are still a small group of investors who would look at yields against prices...and not jump into the game of musical chairs...

[funandsuninbangkok]

11 minutes ago, trogers said:

Since those QEs in USA, EU and Japan, all asset classes in both the financial markets and real estate boomed way beyond fundamentals.

 

Like a bloated carcass with excessive blood, a boom is viewed as the norm and not a bubble.

 

But there are still a small group of investors who would look at yields against prices...and not jump into the game of musical chairs...

You and me brother

 

but it's going to be fun buying when caca hits the aircon!

[Senechal]

1 hour ago, trogers said:

 

...  a boom is viewed as the norm and not a bubble.

 

This is true worldwide. In the US media everyone is currently talk about housing prices "recovering".

 

By "recovering" they apparently mean that housing prices have now reached the previous unsustainable peak.

 

 

 

[KittenKong]

On 02/06/2017 at 9:40 PM, funandsuninbangkok said:

 

Well many buyers like this guy think it was never really completed.  

 

 

Not that it makes the noise any more tolerable but I think that's a water pump not an air-con as the chap describes it. So presumably pumping water up to some reservoir higher up. Pretty incompetent and shoddy design to have open ventilation into a residential corridor though: the ventilation should be to the outside via sound baffles.

 

Our water pump makes a god-awful noise too, but it's in our basement so not much of a problem.

[funandsuninbangkok]

5 minutes ago, KittenKong said:

 

Not that it makes the noise any more tolerable but I think that's a water pump not an air-con as the chap describes it. So presumably pumping water up to some reservoir higher up. Pretty incompetent and shoddy design to have open ventilation into a residential corridor though: the ventilation should be to the outside via sound baffles.

 

Our water pump makes a god-awful noise too, but it's in our basement so not much of a problem.

Welcome to delux Thai style

 

funny thing is you see this all over Thailand. Supposed first class buildings with major design flaws cuz the family that built it let thier idiot son design the thing after graduation from Northern Florida State in Commuications

[funandsuninbangkok]

Oh my. Not good. 

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/business/EconomyAndTourism/30319487

 

 

[trogers]

5 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Oh my. Not good. 

 

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/business/EconomyAndTourism/30319487

 

 

Quote

 

Meanwhile, former central bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul has voiced his concern over the possibility of a bubble in the property sector, citing an oversupply of condominiums and community malls. Developers have too much cash on their hands and don’t know where else to put it except in the property sector, he said.

 

 

Quote

I have always said, the measurement for overdevelopment is the level of unsold inventory. But no property professional would want to kill the goose still laying the golden eggs.

Edited July 3, 2017 by trogers

[funandsuninbangkok]

Oh my - units unexpectedly available and for sale at a discount at the Ritz  - what happened to high-end property no problem schpeal??

 

Bangkok's most prestigious address is ready for occupation now, and some units have unexpectedly come back on the market and must be sold at significant discounts. Contact us without delay for the last exceptional off-market opportunities to purchase at The Ritz Carlton Residences, Bangkok. View this email in your browser

The Ritz Carlton Residences, Bangkok Ready to move in to now   Further Information   Contact us for further information including quotations and floor plans. Viewing strictly by appointment only.     Contact Us Copyright © 2017 Landscope (Thailand) Co., Ltd, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you expressed interest in real estate. Our mailing address is: Landscope (Thailand) Co., Ltd 18th Floor, Asia Centre Building 173/18 South Sathorn Road Sathorn, Bangkok 10120 Thailand

[trogers]

41 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Oh my - units unexpectedly available and for sale at a discount at the Ritz  - what happened to high-end property no problem schpeal??

 

Bangkok's most prestigious address is ready for occupation now, and some units have unexpectedly come back on the market and must be sold at significant discounts. Contact us without delay for the last exceptional off-market opportunities to purchase at The Ritz Carlton Residences, Bangkok. View this email in your browser

The Ritz Carlton Residences, Bangkok Ready to move in to now   Further Information   Contact us for further information including quotations and floor plans. Viewing strictly by appointment only.     Contact Us Copyright © 2017 Landscope (Thailand) Co., Ltd, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you expressed interest in real estate. Our mailing address is: Landscope (Thailand) Co., Ltd 18th Floor, Asia Centre Building 173/18 South Sathorn Road Sathorn, Bangkok 10120 Thailand

Seems those Chinese just couldn't send money into Thailand, due to capital control in China...

[funandsuninbangkok]

1 hour ago, trogers said:

Seems those Chinese just couldn't send money into Thailand, due to capital control in China...

It's not just capital controls. Real estate bubble in China has popped. Will be biggest RE crash since Japan in 90s.  Spill over to Thailand will be huge. 

 

http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/tough-times-for-chinas-real-estate-developers/

 

 

[shadowofacloud]

2 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

It's not just capital controls. Real estate bubble in China has popped. Will be biggest RE crash since Japan in 90s.  Spill over to Thailand will be huge. 

 

http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/tough-times-for-chinas-real-estate-developers/

 

 

Seems there will be wonderful rental and purchase opportunities in the coming years.

[funandsuninbangkok]

1 hour ago, shadowofacloud said:

Seems there will be wonderful rental and purchase opportunities in the coming years.

When smoke clears maybe, but prices are sticky in RE in Asia. Sellers including banks tend to hold on for years as to not lose face

 

still thousands of empty units from 97 all over town empty and bank owned.   Do you really want to wait till 2037?

 

buy google instead. 

Edited July 3, 2017 by funandsuninbangkok

[trogers]

2 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

It's not just capital controls. Real estate bubble in China has popped. Will be biggest RE crash since Japan in 90s.  Spill over to Thailand will be huge. 

 

http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/tough-times-for-chinas-real-estate-developers/

 

 

Doubt there would be much spillover as not many developments here use equity from China, unlike HK and Malaysia.

[chrisandsu]

4 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Oh my - units unexpectedly available and for sale at a discount at the Ritz  - what happened to high-end property no problem schpeal??

 

Bangkok's most prestigious address is ready for occupation now, and some units have unexpectedly come back on the market and must be sold at significant discounts. Contact us without delay for the last exceptional off-market opportunities to purchase at The Ritz Carlton Residences, Bangkok. View this email in your browser

The Ritz Carlton Residences, Bangkok Ready to move in to now   Further Information   Contact us for further information including quotations and floor plans. Viewing strictly by appointment only.     Contact Us Copyright © 2017 Landscope (Thailand) Co., Ltd, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you expressed interest in real estate. Our mailing address is: Landscope (Thailand) Co., Ltd 18th Floor, Asia Centre Building 173/18 South Sathorn Road Sathorn, Bangkok 10120 Thailand

Knowing Thais the discount is probably 100k off of a 40 million price tag ...

[chrisandsu]

22 minutes ago, trogers said:

Doubt there would be much spillover as not many developments here use equity from China, unlike HK and Malaysia.

Where do thai banks get their cash from

?

[trogers]

1 minute ago, chrisandsu said:

Knowing Thais the discount is probably 100k off of a 40 million price tag ...

Plus a lucky draw for the latest model of Jazz...?

[chrisandsu]

1 minute ago, trogers said:

Plus a lucky draw for the latest model of Jazz...?

I always preferred an iphone and an mdf built in ?

[trogers]

1 minute ago, chrisandsu said:

Where do thai banks get their cash from

?

Those big developer boys in the stock market get money from farangs active in the financial markets...

 

Rent, don't buy, and invest in stocks...I hear frequently...

[chrisandsu]

2 minutes ago, trogers said:

Those big developer boys in the stock market get money from farangs active in the financial markets...

 

Rent, don't buy, and invest in stocks...I hear frequently...

Arnt they talking about the stocks that don't crash ?? ?

[funandsuninbangkok]

9 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Knowing Thais the discount is probably 100k off of a 40 million price tag ...

Probably 

 

but it's not the same as sold out is it?

[smutcakes]

On 7/3/2017 at 9:21 PM, chrisandsu said:

Knowing Thais the discount is probably 100k off of a 40 million price tag ...

Or knowing Thailand it is probably an agent trying to get potential buyers to contact them, so they can get their details, contact address on their records.

[trogers]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

Or knowing Thailand it is probably an agent trying to get potential buyers to contact them, so they can get their details, contact address on their records.

My contact details are on record with a developer. But now they don't offer free buffet lunches in their invitations of new launches...?

 

Just emails on info of new launches and ask me to register my interest in them.

[KittenKong]

3 hours ago, trogers said:

But now they don't offer free buffet lunches in their invitations of new launches...

 

They still do launch parties in Pattaya. But the quality of the food and drink has dropped off a lot in the past few years.

[trogers]

The foundation of history.

 

https://betterdwelling.com/real-estate-lessons-from-an-economist-that-died-over-100-years-ago/

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Very interesting tidbit about Concord. I have a place around the area they built up in Toronto.

Sent from my Lenovo A7020a48 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[trogers]

On 07/07/2017 at 11:50 AM, trogers said:

The foundation of history.

 

https://betterdwelling.com/real-estate-lessons-from-an-economist-that-died-over-100-years-ago/

I will attempt to place time periods for Bangkok into the chart below:

 

Phase 1 - 1998 to 2003

Phase 2 - 2004 to 2009

Phase 3 - 2010 to 2015

Phase 4 - 2016 to the present

[Senechal]

6 hours ago, trogers said:

I will attempt to place time periods for Bangkok into the chart below:

 

Phase 1 - 1998 to 2003

Phase 2 - 2004 to 2009

Phase 3 - 2010 to 2015

Phase 4 - 2016 to the present

 

 

No matter where we are on the curve exactly, I think it's safe to say we're late in the cycle.  

 

If the average cycle is 7 years (sometimes more, sometimes less), we've hit Phase III right now no matter how you do the math. I'm not sure I agree we're in Phase IV yet though. Loads of new construction in BKK.

 

 

Edited July 9, 2017 by Senechal

[trogers]

9 minutes ago, Senechal said:

 

 

No matter where we are on the curve exactly, I think it's safe to say we're late in the cycle.  

 

If the average cycle is 7 years (sometimes more, sometimes less), we've hit Phase III right now no matter how you do the math. I'm not sure I agree we're in Phase IV yet though. Loads of new construction in BKK.

 

 

There was a freeze on new launches between late 2015 and last year due to high rejection of mortgage applications and high unsold inventory. Any significant new launches in the first 6 months of this year?

[Senechal]

3 hours ago, trogers said:

There was a freeze on new launches between late 2015 and last year due to high rejection of mortgage applications and high unsold inventory. Any significant new launches in the first 6 months of this year?

 

Yeah I know ... that was a dry spell.  But then the 4th quarter of last year was the highest number of new launches in several quarters.

 

Also last year Q House Sukhumvit launched...  'one of the most  absurdly overpriced ones. (Units start at 30m baht).  It's still under construction now. 

 

Siam Sindhorn also launched two biggies in Langsuan this year. Not only are those places insanely expensive -- they're leasehold to boot. Good luck with that guys. I don't understand people buying small-ish condos for 30m baht... but I really don't understand anyone who spends that on a leasehold unit. Crazy.

 

4Q'16 and 1Q'17also saw tons of low-rise projects kick off... as that's where the perceived money was -- and EIA approvals and financing turned out to be much easier for the smaller projects.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2017 by Senechal