Scotland's Sturgeon says: I can win an independence vote

[sandyf]

19 hours ago, jonwilly said:

North Sea Oil was squandered on UK. London is the Big earning area in the UK, has been for years and will be for years to come and London's wealth is squandered on all of UK.

 

john

I didn't realise the wealth generators had moved out of London and left the community high and dry. Whatever way you want to slice it their is resentment in Scotland within the communities that were left jobless and in negative equity and in particular those that had lost relatives in the north sea.

[RuamRudy]

19 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

Scotland is an efficient, advanced economy, with an educated workforce.

 

But it's management of the economy which is important.

 

If GVA equates to GDP, then taken in comparison with public debt it leaves with a rather a burden, of such proportions it can not possibly get to grips with it. 

 

This year alone there has been a significant overspend.

 

Unfortunately, due to how data is compiled and attributed to the regions, any figures (yes, even the one that says that Scotland's GVA exceeds that of Yorkshire) have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt.

 

These two (non-partisan) blogs explain just why UK centralisation makes it impossible to accurately attribute to the regions much of the many data sources used to estimate income and expenditure for said regions:

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/14/why-economic-data-provided-by-london-will-not-help-the-scottish-independence-debate/

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/15/more-on-why-gers-might-properly-be-called-crap-data/

 

"This is some very approximate data that Scotland does not control being used for a purpose for which it is not fit, which is to say whether or not Scotland would run a surplus or deficit post independence when just about everything, including the data, would be different."

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

Unfortunately, due to how data is compiled and attributed to the regions, any figures (yes, even the one that says that Scotland's GVA exceeds that of Yorkshire) have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt.

 

These two (non-partisan) blogs explain just why UK centralisation makes it impossible to accurately attribute to the regions much of the many data sources used to estimate income and expenditure for said regions:

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/14/why-economic-data-provided-by-london-will-not-help-the-scottish-independence-debate/

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/15/more-on-why-gers-might-properly-be-called-crap-data/

 

"This is some very approximate data that Scotland does not control being used for a purpose for which it is not fit, which is to say whether or not Scotland would run a surplus or deficit post independence when just about everything, including the data, would be different."

Exactly. These statistics come in a variety of formats but it is GDP that is the most widely used for international comparison.

Scotland has its own ONS and they produce 3 figures for GDP - Onshore and 2 versions of onshore + offshore(population and geographical). It is quite interesting how the offshore element is described in the notes.

 

Treatment of Extra-Regio Activity

Extra-Regio territory is a national accounts concept defined by the EU and used in the ONS Regional Accounts, where economic activity that cannot be assigned to any specific land-based region is treated as the thirteenth region of the UK. This consists mainly of offshore oil and gas extraction along with the activities of UK embassies and forces overseas. This release includes two alternative estimates of GDP for Scotland which allocate different shares of this activity to Scotland: a share of all extra-regio activity based on population levels; and a geographical share which includes the oil and gas extraction activity occuring in Scottish adjacent waters. Further information on these estimates is found in the background notes.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493867.pdf

 

Defined by the EU!!   I wonder how that element of the GDP will be affected by brexit

[RuamRudy]

Potentially good news for the vast majority of Scots who want to remain in the EU:

 

Scotland could remain in EU after Brexit says report, as May prepares to trigger Article 50

 

"The European Parliament committee-commissioned report pointed out that Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man had separate arrangements with the EU. The territories, which are British dependencies, are not in the EU, but have access to the Customs Union.

However, the research commissioned by the committee suggested this meant there was scope for Scotland and Northern Ireland to remain in the EU ahead of an independence referendum in the two countries."

[nontabury]

24 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Potentially good news for the vast majority of Scots who want to remain in the EU:

 

Scotland could remain in EU after Brexit says report, as May prepares to trigger Article 50

 

"The European Parliament committee-commissioned report pointed out that Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man had separate arrangements with the EU. The territories, which are British dependencies, are not in the EU, but have access to the Customs Union.

However, the research commissioned by the committee suggested this meant there was scope for Scotland and Northern Ireland to remain in the EU ahead of an independence referendum in the two countries."

 That could be a possibility. The U.K. Gets to secure it's boarders,we are free of the rule by Brussels etc, and still we can trade, as now with the EU,simply by using the corridor of N.I. And Scotland. 

 

[Basil B]

38 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Potentially good news for the vast majority of Scots who want to remain in the EU:

 

Scotland could remain in EU after Brexit says report, as May prepares to trigger Article 50

 

"The European Parliament committee-commissioned report pointed out that Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man had separate arrangements with the EU. The territories, which are British dependencies, are not in the EU, but have access to the Customs Union.

However, the research commissioned by the committee suggested this meant there was scope for Scotland and Northern Ireland to remain in the EU ahead of an independence referendum in the two countries."

You are quoting who???

Sounds like a snip from the Cranky's Gazette...

[RuamRudy]

Hard on the heels of the positive news from the EU yesterday, today we get encouraging news about potentially the largest oil discovery in the UK in years, with experts talking about a multi-billion barrel reservoir:

Hurricane Energy’s Halifax well makes UK's largest undeveloped oil discovery

“We believe that the GLA is ... the largest undeveloped discovery on the UK Continental Shelf,” said Robert Trice, Hurricane chief executive.

 

[Basil B]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

Hard on the heels of the positive news from the EU yesterday, today we get encouraging news about potentially the largest oil discovery in the UK in years, with experts talking about a multi-billion barrel reservoir:

Hurricane Energy’s Halifax well makes UK's largest undeveloped oil discovery

“We believe that the GLA is ... the largest undeveloped discovery on the UK Continental Shelf,” said Robert Trice, Hurricane chief executive.

 

Quote

 

An oil exploration firm has made what it has described as the "largest undeveloped discovery" of oil in UK waters.

Hurricane Energy said one billion barrels of recoverable oil could be contained within the Greater Lancaster Area, 60 miles (97km) west of Shetland.

The company hopes to begin production in 2019.

Dr Robert Trice, Hurricane's chief executive officer, described the find as "exciting times".

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-39406131

 

Definitely say's UK waters... 

[RuamRudy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-39406131
 
Definitely say's UK waters... 

Technically it is... for now :)

[evadgib]

On 3/26/2017 at 4:52 PM, nontabury said:

 That could be a possibility. The U.K. Gets to secure it's boarders,we are free of the rule by Brussels etc, and still we can trade, as now with the EU,simply by using the corridor of N.I. And Scotland. 

 

the only acceptable option that might actually work is via Gibraltar.

[mommysboy]

30 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

Technically it is... for now :)

 

Very strong Union territory.  I expect it will remain part of UK.  It wouldn't surprise me if there was a civil war if Independence became a reality. 

Edited March 27, 2017 by mommysboy

[mommysboy]

There won't be a hard Brexit. Never get through Parliament.

 

[citybiker]

Potentially good news for the vast majority of Scots who want to remain in the EU:
 
Scotland could remain in EU after Brexit says report, as May prepares to trigger Article 50
 
"The European Parliament committee-commissioned report pointed out that Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man had separate arrangements with the EU. The territories, which are British dependencies, are not in the EU, but have access to the Customs Union.
However, the research commissioned by the committee suggested this meant there was scope for Scotland and Northern Ireland to remain in the EU ahead of an independence referendum in the two countries."

May I ask where you acquire this 'vast majority of Scots'?

Or is taken from the various polls?

Any final deal has to be fully approved by both parties, and as the deal will affect the the whole UK I'll await until I see facts and after just seeing:

BBC Question Time: Britain after Brexit.

Suzanne Evans kindly reminded Mr Salmon the SNP do not speak for the whole of Scotland, something wee Alec consistently ignores whilst he's doing his 'speakers corner' part.


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[sandyf]

Theresa May has admitted she must secure her Brexit deal in just 18 months, the SNP has said - claiming it clears the way for a second independence referendum within two years

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-therea-may-nicola-sturgeon-latest-meeting-article-50-scottish-independence-referendum-a7652766.html

[RuamRudy]

5 hours ago, citybiker said:

 

 

May I ask where you acquire this 'vast majority of Scots'?
 

 

From the results - 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU. Of course, my use of the term 'vast majority' is subjective, but if it is anything less then I propose that this confirms 51.89% as being pathetically weak.

 

5 hours ago, citybiker said:

Suzanne Evans kindly reminded Mr Salmon the SNP do not speak for the whole of Scotland, something wee Alec consistently ignores whilst he's doing his 'speakers corner' part.

Do you consider TM to speak for the country? Putting aside the fact that she was never elected as PM, the Tories received 36.9% of the UK vote at the last general election, and only 14.9% of the Scottish vote. By comparison, the SNP took 50% of the Scottish vote. So tell me, if the SNP representative cannot be considered to speak for Scotland, who can? Certainly none of the other panelists.

Edited March 28, 2017 by RuamRudy

[RuamRudy]

9 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Very strong Union territory.  I expect it will remain part of UK.  It wouldn't surprise me if there was a civil war if Independence became a reality. 

 

 Not especially - they tend to tread the middle ground quite consistently, electing LD representative since time immemorial. Support for independence from Orkney and Shetland was 33% and 36% respectively, hardly out and out defiance, and the behaviour of Alastair Carmichael during the referendum, and the subsequent court case which revealed his lies and underhand tactics has hardly endeared him to the community.

[Ramen087]

Although the landscape has changed since the last Scottish vote, are things now so clearly different that there will be no one who voted to leave initially that won't switch their vote to remain if a second vote were to take place?  It seems everyone thinks the only way votes can change is to switch from "remain" to "leave".

 

A sense of urgency for Ms. May seems in order simply because you need to build momentum with a series of small wins on the simplest items to gain the confidence of the public. Sadly there seem to be a scarcity of easy items to negotiate, even the most basic have tons of details and seem to be emotionally charged in the public eye.

 

Edited March 28, 2017 by Ramen087

[Basil B]

13 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

Technically it is... for now :)

 

Well if Scotland ever does get referendum should not the Shetlands and Orkney islands have a separate referendum to stay in the UK???

 

Those islands voted very strongly NO in the Scottish Referendum and would have a claim to a significant proportion of the oil fields. 

[RuamRudy]

5 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Well if Scotland ever does get referendum should not the Shetlands and Orkney islands have a separate referendum to stay in the UK???

 

Those islands voted very strongly NO in the Scottish Referendum and would have a claim to a significant proportion of the oil fields. 

32% & 36% in favour of independence in 2014, although that was before the lies and underhand tactics of their LibDem MP was revealed in the Court of Session. It would be interesting to see how they feel now, aware as they are, of the lies told by the Better Together campaign. One way might be to consider the results of the 2015 general election - the SNP share of the vote grew by over 27%, hardly a sign of hardening unionism:

 

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Liberal Democrats	Alistair Carmichael[8]	9,407	41.4	−20.6
	SNP	Danus Skene	8,590	37.8	+27.2
	Conservative	Donald Cameron[9]	2,025	8.9	−1.6
	Labour	Gerry McGarvey	1,624	7.1	−3.5
	UKIP	Robert Smith[10]	1,082	4.8	−1.6

 

 

[citybiker]

It appears Sturgeon is focusing only on Independence campaigning.
So running the country is now an afterthought eh FM?
Nicola Sturgeon planning 'endless' independence campaign after she wins Holyrood referendum vote - The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AXMpDPQGRROaawzgE6H8GJQ


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[jonwilly]

Living in Chiang Mai means I am only in contact with one jock an old mate of 40 years, from my time in the forces.

A Canny jock and he is very much of the opinion that the Scots Nationalists are just another layer of government to be paid for by the Scottish Taxpayer,.

I have always maintained it's just a Socialist (Commy) plot so that Miss S can earn her Order of Lenin and receive her Dacha on the Black sea.

 

john

er I know the Order went out some years ago but am not up on it's replacement.

[evadgib]

3 hours ago, citybiker said:

It appears Sturgeon is focusing only on Independence campaigning.
So running the country is now an afterthought eh FM?
Nicola Sturgeon planning 'endless' independence campaign after she wins Holyrood referendum vote - The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AXMpDPQGRROaawzgE6H8GJQ


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A panelist on Mondays QT pointed out that the 'material change' neccessary to enablie that lot to apply for yet another referendum won't actually materialise until the conclusion of B-B-Brexit in 2018 

 

Edited March 29, 2017 by evadgib

[RuamRudy]

3 hours ago, citybiker said:

It appears Sturgeon is focusing only on Independence campaigning.
So running the country is now an afterthought eh FM?
Nicola Sturgeon planning 'endless' independence campaign after she wins Holyrood referendum vote - The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AXMpDPQGRROaawzgE6H8GJQ


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What a ridiculous headline - of course the campaign will end, in about 2 years when we make the correct decision.

 

And again the Yoon refrain is that the SNP is not running the country properly, but you offer nothing objective to back that up - simply  more very thin, watery mud being hurled.

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, evadgib said:

A panelist on Mondays QT pointed out that the 'material change' enabling that lot to seek a rrrrreferendum won't actually materialise until the conclusion of B-B-Brexit in 2018!

That lot? You mean your fellow countrymen who simply share a different view on how their affairs should be run?

[evadgib]

17 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

That lot? You mean your fellow countrymen who simply share a different view on how their affairs should be run?

Fellow countrymen wouldn't geer through their own national anthem at the likes of Murrayfield or Twickers each year ....

Edited March 29, 2017 by evadgib

[RuamRudy]

1) You can be certain that those sports fans are independence supporters because...?

2) You can be certain that they are the embodiment of independence supporters because...?

 

[evadgib]

4 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

1) You can be certain that those sports fans are independence supporters because...?

2) You can be certain that they are the embodiment of independence supporters because...?

 

Because you once again took the bait 

 

Take care RR, I'll try a fly this afternoon & see if they work too.

[SheungWan]

15 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Fellow countrymen wouldn't geer through their own national anthem at the likes of Murrayfield or Twickers each year ....

 

[nontabury]

47 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

What a ridiculous headline - of course the campaign will end, in about 2 years when we make the correct decision.

 

And again the Yoon refrain is that the SNP is not running the country properly, but you offer nothing objective to back that up - simply  more very thin, watery mud being hurled.

 

  Well Many Scots are very unhappy with this SNP government. 

  Yes, Ruam Ruby another poster received this very morning from a Scot living under the SNP in Scotland. Not in some distant country.

 

 

[RuamRudy]

39 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Because you once again took the bait 

 

Take care RR, I'll try a fly this afternoon & see if they work too.

Ah - so nothing to back up your position so try to claim you were trolling? Less Project Fear, more Project Feeble...