Thai politics: Minor groups hold balance of power

[webfact]

Minor groups hold balance of power

By SOMROUTAI SAPSOMBOON 
THE NATION

 

FILE photo

 

DISPARATE PARTIES TO DECIDE AMONG ARCH RIVALS, THE JUNTA AND PHEU THAI, IN FORMING POST-ELECTION GOVERNMENT

 

THE POLITICAL scene in Thailand remains bipolar since the 2014 military coup, as the country heads towards a new election – the first since 2011.

 

Before the generals seized power in May 2014, national politics was largely divided between the side that supported fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the side that opposed him. The rival group at the time was led by the Democrat Party, which served as the main opposition to pro-Thaksin governments in the pre-coup Parliaments.

 

Years later, Thai politics remains just as polarised, divided into a side that supports the ruling junta – National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) – and one that opposes it.

 

While junta figures recently confirmed that the general election will be held on February 24 as tentatively scheduled, some political observers remain wary of the high likelihood of the date being postponed.

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has yet to make his political intentions clear, though four of his Cabinet members have joined the newly set up Palang Pracharat Party, which is expected to propose the junta chief as the next prime minister.

 

The next elections will take place in completely uncharted waters for all participating political players. For the first time, a single ballot will be used to choose constituency and party-list MPs in a rare voting system known as mixed-member apportionate representation.

 

This will also be the first time that the Senate will join the House of Representatives to select the prime minister if the Lower House is unable to reach an accord on its own.

 

Hence, it is likely that even if a political party gains majority support in the 500-member Lower House, it may still end up failing to form the next government.

 

If the 500 MPs cannot reach an agreement, the 250-strong Senate will cast votes to select the new head of government. The winning side will need to get support from at least 376 parliamentarians to gain a majority.

 

That could be a really tough task, especially for a party that does not have significant backing from the senators.

 

All 250 Senate members will be handpicked by the NCPO, though 50 will come from short-listed candidates elected by fellow applicants.

 

Judging from the current scenario, there will be three major groups after the election – the pro-NCPO alliance, the junta’s opponents and the “pivotal factor” group.

 

Allegiance to junta

 

The first group will possibly consist of the 250 NCPO-appointed senators, along with the pro-junta Palang Pracharat Party and its allies, namely Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT) and People Reform.

 

Palang Pracharat has recruited many former MPs and veteran politicians, though believe their allegiance was won through offers of personal benefits and threats of legal action.

 

Observers expect the main pro-NCPO party to win about 80 House seats, though the final number will depend on General Prayut’s popularity in the run-up to the national vote.

 

ACT Party, led by veteran politician Suthep Thaugsuban, is expected to win no more than 10 House seats, mainly from the party-list system.

 

Observers suggest that People Reform Party, led by former senator Paiboon Nititawan, is likely to win just one House seat.

 

So, the pro-junta camp is expected to gain about 91 House seats in total. When combined with the 250 senators, it is likely to have 341 votes. However, that is still not enough to catapult their preferred candidate to the premier’s post.

 

The anti-junta camp comprises Pheu Thai Party, its so-called “affiliates” – Thai Raksa Chart, Prachachat and Puea Chat – and allies Future Forward and Seri Ruam Thai parties.

 

Observers suggest that the anti-junta camp has adopted the strategy of “reproducing affiliate parties” in order to take advantage of the new system in which “every vote counts”.

 

Under the new system, each vote gained in a constituency will be added up to calculate a party’s share of party-list MPs.

 

Many veteran politicians, including Chaturon Chaisang, recently left Pheu Thai to join Thai Raksa Chart – a move that observers see as “strategic defection”.

 

Chaturon said his “pro-democracy” camp aims to win as many as 251 seats to command the majority in the House of Representatives.

 

Pheu Thai a dominant force

 

Political analysts say his estimation is highly likely, considering Pheu Thai’s victories with wide margins in previous elections.

 

In the next national vote, Pheu Thai is expected to win about 160 seats – the largest share in the Lower House, albeit not a majority.

 

Thai Raksa Chart is forecast to win 40 seats and Future Forward another 20, while three other anti-NCPO parties could tally 10 seats each.

 

So the Pheu Thai-led camp is likely to gain about 250 House seats in total. Though that is very close to a House majority, it would still remain several votes short of the 376 from both Houses that are necessary to select a premier.

 

The third group -– the “pivotal factors” – may prove crucial for both camps, as the rival alliances alone will be unable to form a new government by themselves.

 

These parties are the Democrats, Bhum Jai Thai, Chart Thai Pattana and Chart Pattana.

 

Judging from history, the Democrat Party is expected to win about 100 House seats, while observers see Bhum Jai Thai likely gaining 40 seats, Chart Thai 15 and Chart Pattana four.

 

So a total of about 159 House members spread across the parties in this third group would hold the country’s political balance in their hands.

 

After the election, the pro-NCPO camp may join forces with all “pivotal- factor” parties to form a new government. But, because it will not command a House majority, the coalition is likely to be unstable, as the rival Pheu Thai-led camp will have an equal number of MPs.

 

Another possibility is for the Pheu Thai-led camp to form a new government with the support of all “pivotal-factor” parties. Their coalition would have as many as 409 MPs in total.

 

But many analysts see this option as the least likely, as the Democrats refuse to work with Pheu Thai as long as it remains under Thaksin’s influence.

 

Pheu Thai may decide to form a coalition government without the Democrats’ help, but for that to happen, it will need a landslide victory.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30359268

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-11-26

[robblok]

So they expect the PTP to get about 40% of the voters. PTP+ its sister party. I wont count future forward and the anti junta parties.

 

Lets see if they get that or not if that is all then they got less votes as last time. When they had about 48%

 

Just an estimate by adding 160 + 40 = 200.

Then 200 ÷ 500 × 100 =40%

 

That would mean a drop in popularity. Will have to see how true the predictions are.

 

Democrats are dropping to 20% from 30% that is a bigger drop.

 

At least these predictions show how slim the love for the junta is no matter the money they have used.

 

 

 

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[fullcave]

 

18 minutes ago, robblok said:

At least these predictions show how slim the love for the junta is no matter the money they have used.

 

Doesn't matter, I predict the junta wins. 

[madmitch]

It could be a difficult choice for the minor parties. If the senate votes, there will only be one outcome yet Democrats choosing a Pheu Thai candidate for PM is like the Conservative party in the UK voting for Jeremy Corbyn. 

 

 

[robblok]

 
Doesn't matter, I predict the junta wins. 

Depends what you mean. If it means PM you might be right. Wonder how that will work PTP MP's with Prayut as PM.

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[robblok]

It could be a difficult choice for the minor parties. If the senate votes, there will only be one outcome yet Democrats choosing a Pheu Thai candidate for PM is like the Conservative party in the UK voting for Jeremy Corbyn. 
 
 

They have no reason to help the PTP so they wont. Why help your arch enemy when you dont benefit yourself. Especially when it means making it easier for the PTP.

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[madmitch]

1 minute ago, robblok said:

They have no reason to help the PTP so they wont. Why help your arch enemy when you dont benefit yourself. Especially when it means making it easier for the PTP.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
 

Exactly, hence the Tory/Corbyn analogy. But what a choice it's likely to be: arch-political-enemy or a General who took over the country without a mandate! Or will someone unexpected come up on the outside?

[alant]

Hard to understand, the 250 Senate will be selected by the NCPO, so it looks like the army in control there but what about the 500 member lower house and the reported 51% control by the army when the new constitution was enacted?

What did the constitution actually mandate?

[robblok]

Exactly, hence the Tory/Corbyn analogy. But what a choice it's likely to be: arch-political-enemy or a General who took over the country without a mandate! Or will someone unexpected come up on the outside?

True for them its a really bad choice no easy way out. Both choices don't appeal to them.

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[Eric Loh]

It will be a highly controversial election and has failed all criteria for a democratic election. Parties don't enjoy the equal time for freedom of assembly, movement, information, political expression compare to the junta. Then the legal framework has been written to favour the junta. Even international observers are not invited. In spite of all the hurdles and obstacles, the election is still a better option than a post coup military government with little achievements to show after 4+ years. The election outcome should be respected by all and the PM selected by the Parliament reflects the wishes of the people as he or she will be an elected official. The outside non elected PM will not be acceptable and will only create division. I hope that will not happen. 

[robblok]

It will be a highly controversial election and has failed all criteria for a democratic election. Parties don't enjoy the equal time for freedom of assembly, movement, information, political expression compare to the junta. Then the legal framework has been written to favour the junta. Even international observers are not invited. In spite of all the hurdles and obstacles, the election is still a better option than a post coup military government with little achievements to show after 4+ years. The election outcome should be respected by all and the PM selected by the Parliament reflects the wishes of the people as he or she will be an elected official. The outside non elected PM will not be acceptable and will only create division. I hope that will not happen. 

If this prediction comes true i mean the results as expected here your wish won't come true as the PTP would only get 40% a number less then last time.

An outsider PM is a real possibility then. I wonder how that will work out. I guess it will be hard.

Anyway predictions in Thailand are often wrong so there is hope for you.





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[pegman]

1 hour ago, alant said:

Hard to understand, the 250 Senate will be selected by the NCPO, so it looks like the army in control there but what about the 500 member lower house and the reported 51% control by the army when the new constitution was enacted?

What did the constitution actually mandate?

It mandated no democracy for Thailand. Heads, the Privy Council wins and tails the Privy Council doesn't lose. This joke of an election should not be recognized by real democracies. 

[Srikcir]

The ultimate insult to democracy is that even should a neutral and/or anti-junta political party or coalition win the majority of the House and the PM, the junta Constitution and appointed so-called Independent Organizations so severely binds the new government with legal constraints, oversight and financial commitments that very little of a new democratic system of governance can be achieved. 

And as always the military reserves its right to supersede any laws and the Constitution with extra-judicial and extra-constitutional actions. 

[Srikcir]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

a single ballot will be used to choose constituency and party-list MPs in a rare voting system known as mixed-member apportionate representation

"rare" - not occurring very often; not found in large numbers

NO - the MMA is not "rare."

The MMA is not found used in any electoral system in the world. It is strictly a junta fabrication, at best an distortion of the MMP such as used in Germany.

Perhaps a "unique voting system" but that's too gratuitous sounding.

 

[fullcave]

5 hours ago, robblok said:

Depends what you mean. If it means PM you might be right. Wonder how that will work PTP MP's with Prayut as PM.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
 

Money is how it works. Any other questions?

[robblok]

Money is how it works. Any other questions?

No i have been saying it all the time that its not about political ideology but about money.

I was more curious about the process, if PTP MP's want certain laws or things can they get it done without th PM his support if its Prayut.

I was thinking in practical terms.

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[zzaa09]

9 hours ago, robblok said:

So they expect the PTP to get about 40% of the voters. PTP+ its sister party. I wont count future forward and the anti junta parties.

 

Lets see if they get that or not if that is all then they got less votes as last time. When they had about 48%

 

Just an estimate by adding 160 + 40 = 200.

Then 200 ÷ 500 × 100 =40%

 

That would mean a drop in popularity. Will have to see how true the predictions are.

 

Democrats are dropping to 20% from 30% that is a bigger drop.

 

At least these predictions show how slim the love for the junta is no matter the money they have used.

 

 

 

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

All suspect, moot, and speculative matter. 

If the governing body was not already designed and selected - and a real [non-manipulated/intervening] open and free elective process were to be enacted.....might be a completely different story. 

 

In this case, already a done deal.

So why bother with theoretical analysis, speculative punditry, and rhetorical quizzing....??

 

Making up shit that doesn't or won't exist.

Edited November 26, 2018 by zzaa09

[bannork]

I remember when Boonsong was sent down for over 40 years for his role in the rice mortgage scandal.

At the time he kept his mouth shut as to others' involvement.

But as time has gone by and he sees he has been left high and dry by those politicians who really benefited financially from the scam, it seems he has started to sing.

The next few months could see a further crumbling of the Shinawat base in Pheua Thai, which can only be a good thing for the party if it genuinely wants to be seen as a democratic party.

 

[zzaa09]

12 minutes ago, bannork said:

I remember when Boonsong was sent down for over 40 years for his role in the rice mortgage scandal.

At the time he kept his mouth shut as to others' involvement.

But as time has gone by and he sees he has been left high and dry by those politicians who really benefited financially from the scam, it seems he has started to sing.

The next few months could see a further crumbling of the Shinawat base in Pheua Thai, which can only be a good thing for the party if it genuinely wants to be seen as a democratic party.

 

Yet, to date, none of the established or alternative political parties seem to have a smidgen of democratic values within their base philosophies - personal observations.

 

They all have a lot of fixin' to do. 

[robblok]

I remember when Boonsong was sent down for over 40 years for his role in the rice mortgage scandal.
At the time he kept his mouth shut as to others' involvement.
But as time has gone by and he sees he has been left high and dry by those politicians who really benefited financially from the scam, it seems he has started to sing.
The next few months could see a further crumbling of the Shinawat base in Pheua Thai, which can only be a good thing for the party if it genuinely wants to be seen as a democratic party.
 

I wonder how high up it goes if he starts to sing. I mean he would not keep quiet for some low politicians.

If it is the boss himself then that would put the whole rice scam in an new light. A real bad light especially in the eyes of the farmers.

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[zzaa09]

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

I wonder how high up it goes if he starts to sing. I mean he would not keep quiet for some low politicians.

If it is the boss himself then that would put the whole rice scam in an new light. A real bad light especially in the eyes of the farmers.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
 

Meanwhile, farmers have forgotten the whole shady business and gotten on with their lives......

[thaiguzzi]

9 hours ago, Srikcir said:

The ultimate insult to democracy is that even should a neutral and/or anti-junta political party or coalition win the majority of the House and the PM, the junta Constitution and appointed so-called Independent Organizations so severely binds the new government with legal constraints, oversight and financial commitments that very little of a new democratic system of governance can be achieved. 

And as always the military reserves its right to supersede any laws and the Constitution with extra-judicial and extra-constitutional actions. 

Unless we have a revolution..........

Every country has had a straw that broke the camel's back.

Maybe this election & election results will be Thailand's straw....

Edited November 26, 2018 by thaiguzzi

[bannork]

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

I wonder how high up it goes if he starts to sing. I mean he would not keep quiet for some low politicians.

If it is the boss himself then that would put the whole rice scam in an new light. A real bad light especially in the eyes of the farmers.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
 

It's not over till the fat lady sings is sent down

[bannork]

9 hours ago, Srikcir said:

The ultimate insult to democracy is that even should a neutral and/or anti-junta political party or coalition win the majority of the House and the PM, the junta Constitution and appointed so-called Independent Organizations so severely binds the new government with legal constraints, oversight and financial commitments that very little of a new democratic system of governance can be achieved. 

And as always the military reserves its right to supersede any laws and the Constitution with extra-judicial and extra-constitutional actions. 

You're right. Section 44 still applies post election, right up until the moment the cabinet is sworn in before the King.

Lots of things could happen with that power once the results are in.

[chama]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

All 250 Senate members will be handpicked by the NCPO, though 50 will come from short-listed candidates elected by fellow applicants.

Gee...wonder who they will be supporting if the NCPO selected them?