Thaksin’s clout has clearly dissipated

[Prissana Pescud]

26 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Lao ethnic people (33%) vote Thaksin.

Siam ethnic people (33%) vote for the General.

All the other ethnic minorities (33%) vote Thaksin.

 

Then the Siam ethnic minority overthrow the elected government by force (10x already). This is the way it is and the way it always has been. Thailand is a deeply divided population ruled by force from the elite Siam families.

You need to have established facts before you post, else your post gets labled "fake news"

 Take an asprin and calm down, no one will know the outcome until the outcome is known. comprende

[Eric Loh]

13 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Interesting point you make regarding the NACC. Isn't creating a political attack dog exactly what the Shins did with the DSI under the now never seen Tarit? Ably assisted by the dubious Chalerm?

Same same but different.

 

Indeed, until the lots cleared up, nothing will really change. Just the players moving around the musical chairs.

 

But looking around, this game, of the rich and politicians benefiting themselves seems to be happening all over. I despair of some of the corrupt politicians in the UK who somehow seem above the law with the connivance of the police who don't want to know or do their duty. 

 

Wasn't Tarit Pengdith appointed by Ahbisit and he charged 9 UDD leaders for treason. The charges against Ahbisit and Suthep thereafter were for charges stemming from the violence in 2010. That don't seem like an attack like how you want to make this out. The NACC president Watcharapol was appointed by Prawit and has yet to conclude corruption cases relating to Prawit and Suthep. Same? I don't think so. 

[thaiguzzi]

43 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

Yawn........

Not THAT old chestnut again.

So tiresome.

23 minutes ago, Prissana Pescud said:

Well you love taking the lords name in vain. That much is established.

Thankfully you were not talking about the Lord Buddha.

But just to wise you up, I have lived here a long time. Corruption still exists but I can say that in every department that has to do with farangs, there is a sign. No Tips.

And they no longer take tips in my experience. That is my experience, not yours.

As for submarines, tanks, helicopters, have you seen how much Australia is paying for a dud fighter plane that is already obselete.

Every country has a right to defend themselves, Australia has no threat but it still has a military force to sting any one.

And yes Thaksin regime allowed open corruption. It is all under the table now. As for the 8k, that was land tax, I would have paid much more for 3 rai in Australia.

And that your not my friend is the truth and you have a phobia.

Stop it will ya.

Just wee wee'd myself....

 

[BritManToo]

22 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Do you have the source citation for your % split please?

1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Thailand

 

[Srikcir]

16 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Do you have the source citation for your % split please?

 

 

Until Britmantoo replies I offer the following that might give some further insight to ethnic divisions. I would further add Isan ethnic people in the North east to Lao ethnic people and Malay Muslims ethnic people in the deep south.

from Analyzing National Elections of Thailand in 2005, 2007, and 2011 – Graphical Approach by

Attachai Ueranantasun, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Prince of Songkla University, Pattnai Campus Pattani, Thailand published in the

International Journal of Business and Social Science, Vol. 3 No. 19; October 2012; Fig. 5, pg 78

http://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_3_No_19_October_2012/8.pdf

[Eric Loh]

54 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Lao ethnic people (33%) vote Thaksin.

Siam ethnic people (33%) vote for the General.

All the other ethnic minorities (33%) vote Thaksin.

 

Then the Siam ethnic minority overthrow the elected government by force (10x already). This is the way it is and the way it always has been. Thailand is a deeply divided population ruled by force from the elite Siam families.

This is highly significant fact. Thaksin was smart to cement this demography base by giving them a voice and development policies that appeal to them. I think the TRT franchise will continue to dominate this demography for a long long time with or without Thaksin. The regular coups are like in football analogy; an own goal. They just intensified the division and galvanize their beliefs that the minority Siam ethnic use the military to exploit and maintain their dominance for power and wealth. 

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, Prissana Pescud said:

Well you love taking the lords name in vain. That much is established.

Thankfully you were not talking about the Lord Buddha.

But just to wise you up, I have lived here a long time. Corruption still exists but I can say that in every department that has to do with farangs, there is a sign. No Tips.

And they no longer take tips in my experience. That is my experience, not yours.

As for submarines, tanks, helicopters, have you seen how much Australia is paying for a dud fighter plane that is already obselete.

Every country has a right to defend themselves, Australia has no threat but it still has a military force to sting any one.

And yes Thaksin regime allowed open corruption. It is all under the table now. As for the 8k, that was land tax, I would have paid much more for 3 rai in Australia.

And that your not my friend is the truth and you have a phobia.

sorry mate but can't get your point

[jayboy]

2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

I doubt whether you really believe your last sentence. In any event, it is nonsense.

 

The truth is of course more complicated. I have little doubt that PTP has weakened since the last election, but it is still the predominant force in the North and North East.

 

The suggestion made by another member that its support is confined to ethnic Lao is also wide of the mark. It has a very significant hold in Bangkok and other cities. The same member suggested that ethnic Thai (whatever that is supposed to mean) would support the General en masse. That too is incorrect though the General will attract a lot of support from the urban middle class. The parties influenced by Thaksin's policies have a swathe of support across the lower middle class across the country regardless of ethnicity - except the South of course.

 

The election will be interesting because there are quite a few unknowns. I think the ultimate result will be Prayuth as nominated PM. This won't really reflect the wish of the Thai people but rather the inevitable result of the Junta's constitution. It's not too surprising since the main objective of the Junta was not to waste the coup and to eliminate the chance of a Thaksin influenced PM emerging.

 

And what could upset the Junta's strategy? As that wise old PM Harold Macmillan once famously said when asked what could blow such political gameplans off course. "Events, dear boy, events."

[stud858]

7 hours ago, Prissana Pescud said:

hope the new democracy of Thailand can live up to the better social standards that the military regime has delivered. 

Sorry to say.  But things were better for me when the Tac man was in. I guess that's what democracy is for.... Disagreeing parties. Pity farang cannot vote.

Anyway good luck to the Thai people 

[metisdead]

Inflammatory, insulting and off topic posts and the replies have been removed. 

[zzaa09]

12 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

It is almost certain that Thaksin's influence has diminished; this is not a brilliant insight on your part, Nation.

 

You cite several reasons for the diminished influence, but your analysis as to 'why' seems quite lacking. You do not mention military coup(s), you do not mention the utilization and abuse of the legal system to systematically go after all the 'Reds' and/or party members, you do not mention the immunity granted to the coup-makers, you do not mention re-writing the constitution, you do not mention the politicization and degradation of the NACC into a political 'hit' agency on the part of the military, you do not mention the curbing and/or elimination of rights and freedoms, you do not mention the new opaqueness of the current regime, you do not mention stacking of "independent" agencies, you do not mention Article 44, etc etc, etc.

 

In sum, Thaksin has been hit, over and over again, by the cheating cheaters who cheat.

 

Would it be good to see the end of Thaksin's influence in Thai politics? Yes, I suspect it would be. Ironically, it is my view that if the Establishment had simply left him alone many years ago, he'd have been voted out by now, but that is a different story.

 

Thailand is likely better off without Thaksin's influence, but as long as his opponents (Prayut, the military, Prawit, the Junta, Suthep, Abhisit, etc etc etc) remain, Thailand will not get any better; there is good reason to think it'll actually get worse without a viable opposition.

 

Removing one part of a garbage dump while ignoring the rest does not make it smell any sweeter...

 

 

Indeed.

We have yet to understand the very genuine and base ideals of cleansing.

Thoroughly. 

 

Until such is enacted, we will continue along the path of the same theatre and same players.

[scorecard]

6 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

You think the headman will write the ballot papers for the uneducated village people and put them in the ballot boxes for them? Just asking. 

el have you forgotten the national election where the red / udd minders told the poll station staff to turn the voting enclosures around so that the locals could be more easily intimidated as to how they were voting?

[zzaa09]

7 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

I don't believe that applies much any longer with village settings - Pu Yai or local council influence.

Sure, you'll find that here and there - but largely, not the case any longer. 

 

Bit of mythological stereotyping.

[jayboy]

13 hours ago, Prissana Pescud said:

I live in Thailand most of the time. I have seen first hand the long term damage that Thaksin has done. The emphasis should be on "sin"

A few years ago, I was made to give an envelope to an official at a government office in order to transfer some property papers to my legally entitled wife. My wife paid the money. I don't know what amount was put in the envelope but I was out of pocket for 20,000 tbt. On a death settlement a few days ago, I visited the same place expecting the same deal. Surprise!

The title went though with a minimum of fuss. Big signs spoke of "no tips". The cost to my wife was about 8,000 tbt.

Even she spoke of her good luck and have the present govt has bought radical change for the better.

I hope the new democracy of Thailand can live up to the better social standards that the military regime has delivered. 

You're having a laugh, right?

[joecoolfrog]

12 hours ago, scorecard said:

Interesting point.

 

He was convicted and sentences to 2 years in jail on a clear proven charge of abuse of authority which surely cannot be 'pardoned', unless by his own cronies being in power and overriding the law. In this scenario Thailand moves backwards 10 steps.

 

And let's not forget the many outstanding charges still in progress including one case where several of his cronies are now in jail for long periods on well proven evidence.

 

Let's move forward please.  

Presumably if he had declared himself immune to any charges ( sound familier ? ) all would be well.

[bannork]

Due to the overwhelming popularity of former Thaksin policies, various faction leaders were forced to bow down to the Shinawat family for years and accept whatever ministerial posts were handed out to them by the family.

Now they have the chance to break free and form their own coalition.

They can help Prayuth be PM again, but the real incentive long term for them is greater autonomy and bargaining power in forming a government and choosing a portfolio.

 

[billd766]

3 minutes ago, bannork said:

Due to the overwhelming popularity of former Thaksin policies, various faction leaders were forced to bow down to the Shinawatra family for years and accept whatever ministerial posts were handed out to them by the family.

Now they have the chance to break free and form their own coalition.

They can help Prayuth be PM again, but the real incentive long term for them is greater autonomy and bargaining power in forming a government and choosing a portfolio.

 

IMHO those who jumped ship will be at the back of the queue when ministries are handed out, IF the government party wins a majority. After all if they jumped ship once and they don't get their snouts in the trough they may jump ship again.

 

I think that they will not get paid both their MP salary and a bonus on top from the PPRP.

[zzaa09]

11 minutes ago, billd766 said:

IMHO those who jumped ship will be at the back of the queue when ministries are handed out, IF the government party wins a majority. After all if they jumped ship once and they don't get their snouts in the trough they may jump ship again.

 

I think that they will not get paid both their MP salary and a bonus on top from the PPRP.

Errrr........

But, but, but.....

 

 

Ain't it all about the beloved people? 

[JAG]

14 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Every Thai I know will still vote Thaksin.

And the General clearly thinks the same, otherwise, he'd be having an 'unweighted' election.

 

11 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

I would suggest that both of these posts are effectively claiming "unknowns". I very much doubt whether any one on this forum has a sufficiently wide spread of good aquaintances, bearing in mind the geographic, social and ethnic polarization of the Thai political scene, to arrive at either conclusion.

 

What's more the long lasting ban on almost every form of political activity, imposed and maintained by the current regime means that there is no canvasing, political positions or proposed policies to be discussed, or to produce reactions amongst the electorate which can be evaluated to provide information on likely voting intentions. Opinion polls are meaningless. The result is, until (if) an election is held, we just don't know.

 

The current regime presumably have the best idea of how probable voting intentions stand, and will call an election when they think they can somehow manipulate the results to allow them to claim victory - as junta's have always done worldwide!

 

As a personal aside, should the electorate deliver a convincing rebuttal to the regime (as I suspect they may), I expect that it will be so shrouded in smoke and mirrors that we will never really know the result!

[JAG]

15 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Every Thai I know will still vote Thaksin.

And the General clearly thinks the same, otherwise, he'd be having an 'unweighted' election.

 

11 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

I would suggest that both of these posts are effectively claiming "unknowns". I very much doubt whether any one on this forum has a sufficiently wide spread of good aquaintances, bearing in mind the geographic, social and ethnic polarization of the Thai political scene, to arrive at either conclusion.

 

What's more the long lasting ban on almost every form of political activity, imposed and maintained by the current regime means that there is no canvasing, political positions or proposed policies to be discussed, or to produce reactions amongst the electorate which can be evaluated to provide information on likely voting intentions. Opinion polls are meaningless. The result is, until (if) an election is held, we just don't know.

 

The current regime presumably have the best idea of how probable voting intentions stand, and will call an election when they think they can somehow manipulate the results to allow them to claim victory - as junta's have always done worldwide!

 

As a personal aside, should the electorate deliver a convincing rebuttal to the regime (as I suspect they may), I expect that it will be so shrouded in smoke and mirrors that we will never really know the result!

[JAG]

15 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Every Thai I know will still vote Thaksin.

And the General clearly thinks the same, otherwise, he'd be having an 'unweighted' election.

 

11 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Really. And all the ones I know, including the ones who voted PTP in the last election, will not vote for any Thaksin owned party again. That is those that live outside of the corralled villages where the local headman tells them who they must vote for.

I would suggest that both of these posts are effectively claiming "unknowns". I very much doubt whether any one on this forum has a sufficiently wide spread of good aquaintances, bearing in mind the geographic, social and ethnic polarization of the Thai political scene, to arrive at either conclusion.

 

What's more the long lasting ban on almost every form of political activity, imposed and maintained by the current regime means that there is no canvasing, political positions or proposed policies to be discussed, or to produce reactions amongst the electorate which can be evaluated to provide information on likely voting intentions. Opinion polls are meaningless. The result is, until (if) an election is held, we just don't know.

 

The current regime presumably have the best idea of how probable voting intentions stand, and will call an election when they think they can somehow manipulate the results to allow them to claim victory - as junta's have always done worldwide!

 

As a personal aside, should the electorate deliver a convincing rebuttal to the regime (as I suspect they may), I expect that it will be so shrouded in smoke and mirrors that we will never really know the result!

[bannork]

40 minutes ago, billd766 said:

IMHO those who jumped ship will be at the back of the queue when ministries are handed out, IF the government party wins a majority. After all if they jumped ship once and they don't get their snouts in the trough they may jump ship again.

 

I think that they will not get paid both their MP salary and a bonus on top from the PPRP.

They jumped ship to avoid prosecution for past misdemeanors, or because they were fed up with the domination of the Shinawats, or because they were promised a post to defect.

 

 

[HalfLight]

17 hours ago, ezzra said:

Thakins is akin to a dog with a bone, he will not let go his plans and ambitions to come back to Thailand under some sort of a pardon or "re trial" to clear his name and he's got the billions to put up and do it and he will keep trying until either he dies or runs out of money...

 

I doubt he will die any time soon, and he probably won't run out of money either. My reading of the man is not a pleasant exercise; he is driven by a need to be respected (worshipped). His only chance to be respected in Thailand is to kick out the generals. Unless the person he bailed out returns the favour by bailing him out, he's a little bit stuck, with all the hookey buggers he encouraged to tie their flags to his mast now defecting to what they perceive as a taller mast.

 

Still, I believe it would be a mistake to write him off just yet. The former TRT pollies are not the grassroots support he used to have, and neither are the landed barons. The grassroots support he used to enjoy are the people at the bottom of the Thai pyramid, and I don't see any great liking for Prayuth there. Even those who occupy the lowest rung on the Thai ladder knows a tosser when they see one, all attempts to deceive notwithstanding.

 

 

 

 

 

[THE REVERAND]

Thaksin is the wolf waiting to capture and destroy his prey. He will be Silent and Violent when he strikes. Their is no guessing who is sleeping the most comfortable and it is not The General.  Thaksin will strike when the time is right and the iron is red hot. He will be Silent but Violent when he Strikes there are no second chances.

[robblok]

I would suggest that both of these posts are effectively claiming "unknowns". I very much doubt whether any one on this forum has a sufficiently wide spread of good aquaintances, bearing in mind the geographic, social and ethnic polarization of the Thai political scene, to arrive at either conclusion.
 
What's more the long lasting ban on almost every form of political activity, imposed and maintained by the current regime means that there is no canvasing, political positions or proposed policies to be discussed, or to produce reactions amongst the electorate which can be evaluated to provide information on likely voting intentions. Opinion polls are meaningless. The result is, until (if) an election is held, we just don't know.
 
The current regime presumably have the best idea of how probable voting intentions stand, and will call an election when they think they can somehow manipulate the results to allow them to claim victory - as junta's have always done worldwide!
 
As a personal aside, should the electorate deliver a convincing rebuttal to the regime (as I suspect they may), I expect that it will be so shrouded in smoke and mirrors that we will never really know the result!

We will know for a large part after the election. Just look at votes and compare with last election.

Unless you expect real voting fraud, something i don't as its too dangerous and will come out. Too hard to hide.

We can debate this forever but the election will really tell the story.

Im not going to make any claims no point to it.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

[robblok]

I would suggest that both of these posts are effectively claiming "unknowns". I very much doubt whether any one on this forum has a sufficiently wide spread of good aquaintances, bearing in mind the geographic, social and ethnic polarization of the Thai political scene, to arrive at either conclusion.
 
What's more the long lasting ban on almost every form of political activity, imposed and maintained by the current regime means that there is no canvasing, political positions or proposed policies to be discussed, or to produce reactions amongst the electorate which can be evaluated to provide information on likely voting intentions. Opinion polls are meaningless. The result is, until (if) an election is held, we just don't know.
 
The current regime presumably have the best idea of how probable voting intentions stand, and will call an election when they think they can somehow manipulate the results to allow them to claim victory - as junta's have always done worldwide!
 
As a personal aside, should the electorate deliver a convincing rebuttal to the regime (as I suspect they may), I expect that it will be so shrouded in smoke and mirrors that we will never really know the result!

We will know for a large part after the election. Just look at votes and compare with last election.

Unless you expect real voting fraud, something i don't as its too dangerous and will come out. Too hard to hide.

We can debate this forever but the election will really tell the story.

Im not going to make any claims no point to it.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

[stud858]

13 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

clear

If clear, I missed the details. Where can I see the details, rather than just trust other honest politicians.?