Extreme Brexit could be worse than financial crisis for UK: BoE

[vogie]

10 hours ago, adammike said:

27-28% of the UK population voted leave.

36-37% of the electorate voted leave.

Just saying ..,...again.

5 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

guys,

grow up, there are indeed several ways to compute majority re result of an election

 

the easy and straight forward and most common way is that you compute majority

on the basis of votes cast FOR or votes cast AGAINST

 

and then you end up with 51 and a bit and 48 and a bit

 

Of course there are many ways of showing a majority, but by showing it as adammike is, is to infer that not many people voted, whereas it was the biggest turnout for a vote for a very long time.

Would you agree?

[melvinmelvin]

6 minutes ago, vogie said:

Of course there are many ways of showing a majority, but by showing it as adammike is, is to infer that not many people voted, whereas it was the biggest turnout for a vote for a very long time.

Would you agree?

certainly

 

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, baboon said:

Eh? Hard Brexit is on the way...

agree with you, Hard Brexit is on the way

 

however, the pertinent question is; where does that way lead?  (still open me thinks)

 

towards realisation

or

downstairs towards dungeons and refusals

 

 

[rixalex]

Actually, the biggest lie told (as pointed out by another poster), was that the referendum result would be enacted!

Potentially yes, although I think the promise / threat of an emergency budget was if not as big a lie, as serious a lie, as it had the power to affect the way that people voted; and I'm sure that it did, every bit as much as the red bus and possibly more.

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[rixalex]

Eh? Hard Brexit is on the way...

Lots more twists and turns before we get to the conclusion of this, one suspects. If though we do ultimately end up with leave (as it was known before the referendum before being renamed as "hard Brexit" by remainers eager to make it sound like something nasty and dangerous) it won't be for the want of parliamentarians trying to prevent it, nor any thanks to 90% of them.

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[sandyf]

15 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Leave Lies? Remainers Need To Look In The Mirror

The UK gives the EU a gross contribution of £350 million a week. This is not a lie, and it is an amount which could be spent on the NHS if the UK Government so wished. These are usually touted as lies, but this stems from 'Remain' campaigners being unable to tell the difference between the words 'gross' and 'net' as well as the difference between the words 'could' and 'will'.

 Remainers did suggest there would be an immediate Brexit recession. No recession to date

3 million people in the UK will lose their jobs was the fictitious figure banded about. However, in July the claimant count fell by 8,600 to 763,600, despite an expected rise of 9,500. Another lie.

"A dangerous fantasy" is how Nick Clegg described Nigel Farage's claim of EU plans to create an army. Barely three months on from the Referendum, Juncker has proposed an EU Army. I'm looking forward to Nick Clegg's next apology video like the one he made after his last whopper.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/matthew-ellery/leave-lies-remainers-need_b_12191462.html

EU loophole could see 77 MILLION Turks head to Britain, warn Farage and Johnson

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/661387/Migrant-crisis-Nigel-Farage-Turkey-EU-visa-free-travel

[evadgib]

 

[bannork]

Here's a brief summary of Sir Rogers' speech.

9 lessons to draw on:

1.  Brexit means Brexit, means massive consequences. You’re either in or out. 

Voters not told what the terms would be for leaving.

 

a. No frictionless trade once  the UK is out as frictionless trade comes with The European Court of Justice and free movement of people.

 

b. Once outside the EU, voluntary alignment doesn’t deliver the benefits of membership because the country is then not subject to adjudication and the enforcement machinery available to EU members.

 

c.  Solidarity of the EU members is with each other, not the outsider, the UK. For example the 27 members support Dublin not London over the backstop issue. This may be the first Anglo-Irish treaty in history where greater leverage lies with the Irish. Solidarity of members will be with the fishing member states, not the UK, There will be solidarity with Spain not the UK over Gibraltar. Any free trade agreements between the 27 member EU and the UK will be tough on the latter.

How different will it be for UK as a third country, outside the EU?

 

2. Other countries have sovereignty too. The EU members have pooled their sovereignty, and to trade with EU we will have to accept the EU laws, supra national institutions, for example on data protection.  Cross border data flows are essential for free trade. The EU is a global player, able to impose its 

rules extraterritorially.  The EU rejected UK’s assumption that the Data Protection Act 2018 was good enough to obtain an adequacy determination under General Data Protection Regulations. The consequences are an erosion of market access to the EU for the UK.

 

3. Brexit is a process, not an event. By invoking article 50, UK locked itself into the deadline of March 30th and so gave leverage to the EU. Leavers do not understand the complexities of the deals to be made.

 

4. It’s a fallacy to claim there is only one Brexit destination. Most Leavers dislike the judicial and political aspects of the EU but favour the original trading aspects. But Downing Street is wrong to assume their model is the only possible model to deliver the will of the people. The EU knows May put the ending of free movement of people well above all other objectives and privileged the frictionless trading in goods over the interests of UK services sector. The result is loss of market access in what is the UK’s major market.

 

5. Two thirds of UK exports are to the EU or to countries which have an EU preferential deal. Market access to EU will worsen immediately post-Brexit, whilst any new markets will take a long time and will only have a modest impact.

 

6. The Services sector has been largely ignored in favour of talk on goods and tariffs, yet it is in services the UK has a sizable surplus with the EU, unlike a huge deficit in goods. Post Brexit, UK service exporters will face the greatest worsening of trade terms because of the difference between how far the service trade is liberalized under the European Single Services Market and any other trade form agreed anywhere. Firms will relocate outside the UK. The UK needs to have market access for its legal, financial, business, tertiary education service industries and this gives the EU leverage to enforce deals on other issues such as fisheries.

 

7. Assumption the EU will come running if the UK leaves with no deal is farcical.

No deal will mean unprecedented disruption in both scale and length. WTO rules deliver no continuity in multiple key sectors of the economy.

 

8.  UK negotiators have been opaque and secretive as the UK is deeply divided itself over what it wants, and thus has completely failed to explain to the public the difficult choices ahead

 

9.  Honesty with the public and with negotiators about the implications and possibilities of deals with the EU is vital.

 

[candide]

12 minutes ago, evadgib said:

 

So "Global Britain" supports a WTO Brexit! Nothing surprising there!

[baboon]

1 hour ago, rixalex said:

Lots more twists and turns before we get to the conclusion of this, one suspects. If though we do ultimately end up with leave (as it was known before the referendum before being renamed as "hard Brexit" by remainers eager to make it sound like something nasty and dangerous) it won't be for the want of parliamentarians trying to prevent it, nor any thanks to 90% of them.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

They will argue themselves to a standstill and the clock will run out. You will get your wish.

[7by7]

21 hours ago, vinny41 said:

21 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

He is still an MEP, and will be until Brexit when he, like all other British MEPs, accepts his golden handshake and MEP pension (and who do you think will be paying for that? Wont be the EU!)

 

He is also someone who has spent his entire political life since 1996  campaigning for the UK to leave the EU.

 

So, having first backed the call for another referendum why did he change his mind? Simple; he can see that public opinion in the UK is swinging more and more towards Remain as the consequences of leaving become more and more apparent.

 

 

This is just supposition from your part unless you have the ability to read Nigel mind which I very much doubt you have

 

The first two paragraphs are fact.

 

The third is a reasonable assumption based on his twice calling for another referendum.

 

The first time was in May 2016. Nigel Farage wants second referendum if Remain campaign scrapes narrow win

Quote

The Ukip leader speaks to the Mirror’s Associate Editor Kevin Maguire and warns that a '52-48 result would be unfinished business'

Then, when Leave won by 52 to 48 he hailed it as a magnificent victory!

 

Although earlier that night he had conceded defeat! Here is one very credible theory as to why: Why did Nigel Farage tell the world he thought remain had won?

Quote

Bloomberg raises important questions about whether Farage, a former commodities broker with many friends and backers in the financial sector, said remain had won with the intention of benefiting hedge funds who stood to gain from a sudden drop in the pound.

Farage, of course, denies it; although he hasn't sued any of the many media who reported this at the time.

 

Even if he, himself, didn't benefit, at least one Brexiteer did and is happy to say that he did.

Quote

Farage told Bloomberg his concessions were not aimed at moving the markets for anyone, and told MailOnline that he did not try to mislead people by conceding defeat. But speculating on Brexit has made at least one very rich Brexiteer that bit richer. Crispin Odey was one of the largest donors to leave, handing over just shy of £900,000 to the campaign.

On hearing the referendum result, Odey said: “I feel fantastic. It’s a fantastic decision by the electorate.” Odey had a special reason to feel “fantastic”. He’d bet on Brexit hitting the pound by “shorting” sterling and moving 65% of his fund into gold in anticipation. Odey’s fund made £220m in the space of just a few hours. As he said at the time: “I think I may be the winner.”

 

The second time Farage called for a second referendum, as already said, was in January 2018 to, he said, settle the matter once and for all, only later to change his mind, again.

 

So tell us, why, in your opinion, did he twice call for another referendum only to change his mind?

[melvinmelvin]

39 minutes ago, sandyf said:

EU loophole could see 77 MILLION Turks head to Britain, warn Farage and Johnson

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/661387/Migrant-crisis-Nigel-Farage-Turkey-EU-visa-free-travel

 

priceless

fish and chips+steak&kidney pie out - here comes kebab 24/7

culdna dream this one up - John Cleese is full of envy

 

[Guest]

This made me laugh ????

 

 

 

[bristolboy]

6 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

The first two paragraphs are fact.

 

The third is a reasonable assumption based on his twice calling for another referendum.

 

The first time was in May 2016. Nigel Farage wants second referendum if Remain campaign scrapes narrow win

Then, when Leave won by 52 to 48 he hailed it as a magnificent victory!

 

Although earlier that night he had conceded defeat! Here is one very credible theory as to why: Why did Nigel Farage tell the world he thought remain had won?

Farage, of course, denies it; although he hasn't sued any of the many media who reported this at the time.

 

Even if he, himself, didn't benefit, at least one Brexiteer did and is happy to say that he did.

 

The second time Farage called for a second referendum, as already said, was in January 2018 to, he said, settle the matter once and for all, only later to change his mind, again.

 

So tell us, why, in your opinion, did he twice call for another referendum only to change his mind?

I believe the standard Brexiter response to that is "Nigel Farage who?"

[7by7]

21 hours ago, Chartist said:

 

Brexiters aren't afraid of another vote 23rd of June 2016 was the 2nd referendum, the first being in 1973 and I for one am in favour of a third referendum once we've left the EU say in 5 - 10 years time when the effects of Brexit are fully known. Since we haven't actually left yet non of the positives nor negatives have taken effect yet so there's nothing to vote upon. 

 

Unless of course you've got the mentality of a spoiled child who didn't get their own way and want us to keep voting until you get the result you want, or you'll have a massive internet tantrum, stamp your little feet, declare the entire democratic experiment a failure and demand we give feudalism another whirl.

 I have already explained why we need to make a final decision before we actually leave; but I'll do so again..

 

T ECJ has ruled that if we withdraw Article 50 we can remain a member on exactly the same terms as now. Which means, among other things, that we keep the pound, keep the rebate, stay out of Schengen.

 

Were we to leave and then in a few years time apply to join again this ruling would not mean a toss. So, like all others applying to join, we would not only lose the rebate, but we would also have to adopt the Euro and join Schengen.

 

I find that being acceptable to any Brexiteer very strange. I thought you Brexiteers wanted us to maintain control over our own borders and finances!

 

 

 

[7by7]

21 hours ago, LucysDad said:

22 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 Yet more Brexiteer arrogance!

I have to say that I am disappointed.

 

I thought that someone of your quality (at least where immigration matters etc are concerned) would be beyong trolling.

 

 

BIG disappointment.

 

Like many Brexiteers you believe that the EU needs us more than we need them; that is arrogance.

 

BTW, calling someone who disagrees with you a troll is also typical Brexiteer tactic.

 

No disappointment, not even mildly surprised.

[melvinmelvin]

4 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 I have already explained why we need to make a final decision before we actually leave; but I'll do so again..

 

T ECJ has ruled that if we withdraw Article 50 we can remain a member on exactly the same terms as now. Which means, among other things, that we keep the pound, keep the rebate, stay out of Schengen.

 

Were we to leave and then in a few years time apply to join again this ruling would not mean a toss. So, like all others applying to join, we would not only lose the rebate, but we would also have to adopt the Euro and join Schengen.

 

I find that being acceptable to any Brexiteer very strange. I thought you Brexiteers wanted us to maintain control over our own borders and finances!

 

 

 

wrong

you don't necessarily have to accept Euro,

you can mess up the UK economy to such an extent that UK does not qualify for Euro

 

[Henryford]

Just now, melvinmelvin said:

wrong

you don't necessarily have to accept Euro,

you can mess up the UK economy to such an extent that UK does not qualify for Euro

  

What like Greece and Italy ha ha.

[7by7]

21 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I think you will find its the remainers not brexiteers that want to keep all the advantages of EU membership hence the uptake of Irish/German/French/and other EU countries new passport applications from remainers The Majority of leavers that I have spoken to with would have preferred if the Uk Goverment had  started working on a planned exit from Friday 24th June 2016, I know some that want to leave the very next day but most people understand that would have been impossible without major  disruption

 So why have prominent Brexiteers such as Rees-Mogg moved their investments to Ireland?

 

What evidence do you have that it is only Remainers who are applying in droves for Irish passports?

 

Earlier you asked if I could read Nigel Farage's mind; can you read theirs?

[7by7]

20 hours ago, rixalex said:

And that makes exactly what difference to the fact there was a promise made by the PM on the eve of the 2016 vote, to the nation, that the decision made to remain or leave would be final?

If you're ok for that promise to now be ignored or forgotten about, who's to say you (and the politicians) won't do the same thing if the result of another referendum doesn't go your way?

Because Parliament is sovereign and the PM is answerable to Parliament. S/he can make all the promises s/he wants, but if Parliament doesn't agree it wont happen.

 

If another referendum were to take p0lace, this time it would be Parliament making the promises. OK, Parliament could later change it's mind; but only if the majority of MPs agreed.

 

20 hours ago, rixalex said:

"Are you incensed because, like many Brexiteers, you want to keep all the advantages of EU membership only to find that, unsurprisingly, the EU have said that we can't leave the club and expect to retain the advantages of membership?"

I understand question marks thanks. Please explain how the question mark at the end of your sentence above somehow magically means that you weren't speaking on behalf of "many leavers"?
 

 

 

Don't know about your education, but I learned basic English grammar in primary school!

 

A question mark at the end of a sentence means that sentence is a question, not a statement. I was asking a question, and my 'many leavers phrase' was based upon comments both here and elsewhere from said Leavers.

 

 

[7by7]

20 hours ago, LucysDad said:

 

 

I agree.

 

You can't debate a response to a post that says:-

 

Yet more Brexiteer arrogance!

 

My point was that it is even more distasteful when the post is from a previously respected poster.

 I note that you have never made such a statement condemning or even mildly criticising the many, many childish insults thrown at Remainers in this and other topics.

 

Double standards?

[vinny41]

11 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 So why have prominent Brexiteers such as Rees-Mogg moved their investments to Ireland?

 

What evidence do you have that it is only Remainers who are applying in droves for Irish passports?

 

Earlier you asked if I could read Nigel Farage's mind; can you read theirs?

I think you will find that Somerset Management has opened a 2nd fund in Dublin which is not the same as moving their entire investment portfolio

 

Somerset Management is an emerging markets investment management company.

“We manage clients’ money - it's not our own money, it's clients’ money.”

I assume that you like many forum members on here haven't moved there entire financial portfolio to Thailand and you know the reason why simple don't put all your eggs in one basket 

[7by7]

18 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

wrong

you don't necessarily have to accept Euro,

you can mess up the UK economy to such an extent that UK does not qualify for Euro

 

In which case we probably wouldn't be accepted into the EU until we did; and if we were we would have to commit to using it as soon as we qualified.

[rixalex]

 
The second time Farage called for a second referendum, as already said, was in January 2018 to, he said, settle the matter once and for all, only later to change his mind, again.
 
So tell us, why, in your opinion, did he twice call for another referendum only to change his mind?

Can you tell us why you are hanging on every utterance of Mr Farage with regards a second referendum?

While i may agree with him on some points, he doesn't speak for me. I'm guessing he doesn't speak for you. He's just one man.

It's funny how this man whose opinion is to be derided and generally disrespected as nonsense, happens to say something remainers agree with and suddenly here they are desperately quoting him like it proves something.

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[7by7]

Just now, vinny41 said:

I think you will find that Somerset Management has opened a 2nd fund in Dublin which is not the same as moving their entire investment portfolio

 

Somerset Management is an emerging markets investment management company.

“We manage clients’ money - it's not our own money, it's clients’ money.”

I assume that you like many forum members on here haven't moved there entire financial portfolio to Thailand and you know the reason why simple don't put all your eggs in one basket 

But the fact remains that Rees-Mogg is so confident about the UK's future prosperity outside the EU that he has moved some of his money to Ireland! His excuse that he is just a partner and does not make investment decisions is feeble in the extreme.

[7by7]

2 minutes ago, rixalex said:

 

 

Can you tell us why you are hanging on every utterance of Mr Farage with regards a second referendum?

While i may agree with him on some points, he doesn't speak for me. I'm guessing he doesn't speak for you. He's just one man.

It's funny how this man whose opinion is to be derided and generally disrespected as nonsense, happens to say something remainers agree with and suddenly here they are desperately quoting him like it proves something.

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Go back through all the Brexit threads. You will find that Farage has been quoted as if his words are Holy Writ by many of your fellow Brexiteers.

[rixalex]

 
Don't know about your education, but I learned basic English grammar in primary school!
 
A question mark at the end of a sentence means that sentence is a question, not a statement. I was asking a question, and my 'many leavers phrase' was based upon comments both here and elsewhere from said Leavers.
 
 

Thanks for the condescension. Yes, I'm aware you were asking a question. You were also, contrary to your prior claim otherwise, making a statement on behalf of leavers, as you now acknowledge.

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[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

Go back through all the Brexit threads. You will find that Farage has been quoted as if his words are Holy Writ by many of your fellow Brexiteers.

If that is the case you wouldn't have any problem finding them and re linking them in a  updated post  will you

[7by7]

42 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

I believe the standard Brexiter response to that is "Nigel Farage who?"

 

9 minutes ago, rixalex said:

Can you tell us why you are hanging on every utterance of Mr Farage with regards a second referendum?...……..

 

It's funny how this man whose opinion is to be derided and generally disrespected as nonsense, happens to say something remainers agree with and suddenly here they are desperately quoting him like it proves something.

 

Q.E.D., bristolboy.

 

Farage is a major quotable source to Brexiteers, until he says something they don't like!

[dunroaming]

6th January 2019.  I am watching Andrew Marr and like he has just said "none of us know what is going to happen next".  For all the bickering and arguing that we do on TV every day we are all completely in the dark as to where we are going with Brexit. It is in the hands of the Prime Minister of a party that doesn't have a majority and doesn't have the backing of her own MPs.  Yet still we have to stand by and accept whatever next step she decides to go with.  Her deal can be voted down but she still gets to decide what happens then.  Another referendum? Another can kicking until it is too late to stop falling over the cliff?  A no deal Brexit? Another general election?  Or maybe scrapping Brexit altogether?

 

May is being interviewed by Marr as I write this and she is still just spouting the same diatribe she always does.  She has just "warned" that if her deal is voted down then we will be in "uncharted water".  Really?  Well there's a surprise!