USD to THB 2019 Exit Forecast at 34b

[Banana7]

Attached is Kbank's USD THB exchange rate forecast for 2019. Looks like the exchange rate will be about 34 THB = USD.

Comments?

KBank Capital Market Perspectives - USDTHB Target 2019.pdf

[Banana7]

Daily update and analysis as to why USD increases against THB.

KBank_Daily_update_Mar 27_2019.pdf

[mike787]

Ah, ok! what do I do now?

[Banana7]

26 minutes ago, mike787 said:

Ah, ok! what do I do now?

Looks like you'll get more THB for your USD in the next few days. May get more THB in the 2nd half of the year. Some of assumptions in the first document, won't be coming true, like the 2 US interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve so the 34B rate may not be achieved.

[ShortTimed]

Selling USD is down this week from last week and 31.4 is nowhere near the 34 projected.

 

That forecast model appears to be outdated but I can’t open the attachments or links to read it.

 

I have to change $2000US soon. Does it really say this week will be better.

 

[ShortTimed]

Starting to see this forecast coming true.

 

31.8 presently (+1% in 4 hours).

 

 

Sure wish I could open those attachments.

[KhunBENQ]

7 minutes ago, ShortTimed said:

Sure wish I could open those attachments.

What goes wrong? It is a nine page PDF. MANY numbers.

 

And where it the report that forecasts 40+ for the Euro

[ShortTimed]

What goes wrong? It is a nine page PDF. MANY numbers.
 
And where it the report that forecasts 40+ for the Euro

I will be at my desktop shortly and hope to have better luck there.

I am selling $2,000 US soon to buy a motorbike so this forecast is encouraging me to wait a bit before exchanging.

Thanks

[topt]

9 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Some of assumptions in the first document, won't be coming true, like the 2 US interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve so the 34B rate may not be achieved.

The first document was published Nov 14 last year. 

Trump has been pushing for a weaker $ and looked like he was going to get it with the almost complete change of sentiment coming out of the Fed. which as you say looks like no rate increases this year.

I have even heard some pundits suggesting QE may come back on the table........

 

Unless there are huge issues that affect international confidence in Thailand I cannot see a spike back up to 34 at this point.

I think I saw an article where it was said that the Thai's want to keep the range between 31 and 32.5 or similar so as not to affect exports too much? 

[Suradit69]

10 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Looks like you'll get more THB for your USD in the next few days. May get more THB in the 2nd half of the year. Some of assumptions in the first document, won't be coming true, like the 2 US interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve so the 34B rate may not be achieved.

If the US economy goes into recession, something also predicted to occur over the next 12 months, the Fed might even have to reduce rates.

 

The problem with these types of predictions is there are too many moving parts, only one or two of which have to move unpredictably for the entire thesis to fall apart.

[Jeffrey346]

This morning [6:30] I used TW to transfer some US funds. The rate was 31.90 and the funds arrived in my BB account at 2:05. 

[Banana7]

Primary reason USD is increasing against THB is that Japanese companies in Thailand are buying USD with their THB to transfer USD to their parent in Japan for Q1 reporting. JPY is down against USD.

 

Best time to buy THB with USD is now to end of March, for the next 2 months.

 

[ShortTimed]

Primary reason USD is increasing against THB is that Japanese companies in Thailand are buying USD with their THB to transfer USD to their parent in Japan for Q1 reporting. JPY is down against USD.

 

Best time to buy THB with USD is now to end of March, for the next 2 months.

 

 

Thank you.

 

Does this mean the JPY is continuing to drop against USD?

 

What rate would you expect to see at bottom? I have some purchases to make there?

 

Thanks

[Banana7]

35 minutes ago, ShortTimed said:

 

Thank you.

 

Does this mean the JPY is continuing to drop against USD?

 

What rate would you expect to see at bottom? I have some purchases to make there?

 

Thanks

JPY increased against USD all night (New York EDT). Closed yesterday at 110.51y, now at 110.13y (at 04:30 EDT 28MAR2019), lost 0.34%.

 

I don't know the bottom.

Edited March 28, 2019 by Banana7

[Banana7]

I see someone got 31.90 early this morning. The peak for USD to THB maybe today or tomorrow. Currently 31.8390b at 15:30 28MAR2019, trending down.  In BKK cash rate is 31.78 at Grand Superrich, 31.77 at Superrich, 31.76 at Siam. The peak may have past in the last 12 hours.

[Caldera]

I would like to get 34 baht per USD, that's a no-brainer. No idea if it will actually happen though.

[ShortTimed]

I see someone got 31.90 early this morning. The peak for USD to THB maybe today or tomorrow. Currently 31.8390b at 15:30 28MAR2019, trending down.  In BKK cash rate is 31.78 at Grand Superrich, 31.77 at Superrich, 31.76 at Siam. The peak may have past in the last 12 hours.

Thats what I was seeing as well.

[rwill]

lol, they probably had weather forecasters working on it.

[thailand49]

I have read so many articles about the Thai government and banks as to what the rate should be in regards to the dollar. Although many will disagree that the rate can't be manipulated to some point when I hear banks claim it is going to be this rate at this time I wonder isn't that manipulation? I've read a number of articles things are just fine because Thailand is such a stable and wonderful place to invest and the strength of the baht is justified. It goes on and on import is bad/good so is export bad/good?

Don't get me wrong I hope it does go to 34, in fact, I think it should be higher!????

[Jim7777]

13 hours ago, ShortTimed said:

Selling USD is down this week from last week and 31.4 is nowhere near the 34 projected.

 

That forecast model appears to be outdated but I can’t open the attachments or links to read it.

 

I have to change $2000US soon. Does it really say this week will be better.

 

I skimmed through it and it’s just an educated guess at best.  Although it would be nice the last time I remember seeing the exchange rate at 34 Baht to the dollar was in 2009 through 2011.  Although I remember when I made my monthly transfer last month it was a little bit better than usual but not by very much.  I’m actually making my next wire transfer on my payday tomorrow night regardless of the exchange rate I always do it every payday regardless but I live here.  It would be nice if the exchange rate jumped up to 34 Baht to the USD but I highly doubt that it will happen at least not by that much so soon that sounds to good to be true.  Although it has slowly been creeping back up little by little after the last few years of minor fluctuations.  

 

It’s not great right now but it’s not all that bad either right now.  The US Dollar is doing a hell of a lot better than the British Pound and the Australian Dollar over here that’s for sure.  

[moontang]

4 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Primary reason USD is increasing against THB is that Japanese companies in Thailand are buying USD with their THB to transfer USD to their parent in Japan for Q1 reporting. JPY is down against USD.

 

Best time to buy THB with USD is now to end of March, for the next 2 months.

 

Agreed, if not now, I would wait till a few weeks after songkran... historically USD strengthens..but of course no guarantees.  The end of russiagate may be positive for us markets.  I feel pretty good at 33.33 when a 100 is a three dollar bill..at 29 I am cashing out....

[malibukid]

16 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Daily update and analysis as to why USD increases against THB.

KBank_Daily_update_Mar 27_2019.pdf 1.44 MB · 16 downloads

i did some research recently and this squares.

[thaiboss]

10 hours ago, Banana7 said:

I see someone got 31.90 early this morning. The peak for USD to THB maybe today or tomorrow. Currently 31.8390b at 15:30 28MAR2019, trending down.  In BKK cash rate is 31.78 at Grand Superrich, 31.77 at Superrich, 31.76 at Siam. The peak may have past in the last 12 hours.

use transferwise

 

[ShortTimed]

I skimmed through it and it’s just an educated guess at best.  Although it would be nice the last time I remember seeing the exchange rate at 34 Baht to the dollar was in 2009 through 2011.  Although I remember when I made my monthly transfer last month it was a little bit better than usual but not by very much.  I’m actually making my next wire transfer on my payday tomorrow night regardless of the exchange rate I always do it every payday regardless but I live here.  It would be nice if the exchange rate jumped up to 34 Baht to the USD but I highly doubt that it will happen at least not by that much so soon that sounds to good to be true.  Although it has slowly been creeping back up little by little after the last few years of minor fluctuations.  
 
It’s not great right now but it’s not all that bad either right now.  The US Dollar is doing a hell of a lot better than the British Pound and the Australian Dollar over here that’s for sure.  

Thank you Jim.

[topt]

12 hours ago, Jim7777 said:

Although it would be nice the last time I remember seeing the exchange rate at 34 Baht to the dollar was in 2009 through 2011.

As we get older memory tends to diminish........

It was up over 35 less than 5 years ago. If you do a search on XE.com or another exchange site over the last 5 years - 

30 Mar 2014 00:00 UTC - 29 Mar 2019 00:40 UTC

 

USD/THB close:31.81962 low:31.10207high:36.48964

Sorry I can't seem to paste the chart

[yodsak]

[Naam]

1 hour ago, topt said:

As we get older memory tends to diminish........

It was up over 35 less than 5 years ago. If you do a search on XE.com or another exchange site over the last 5 years - 

30 Mar 2014 00:00 UTC - 29 Mar 2019 00:40 UTC

 

USD/THB close:31.81962 low:31.10207high:36.48964

Sorry I can't seem to paste the chart

 

[Banana7]

Overnight, USD was strong even as data showed the U.S. economy slowed more than initially thought in the fourth quarter of last year. GDP increased at 2.2% annualized instead of the estimated 2.6%.

 

U.S. yields on treasuries and bonds have dropped, investors seem to have sold currencies from markets about which they have the biggest worries about the state of the economy. That seems to have lifted the dollar.

 

Now 31.75 baht for USD cash rate in Bangkok.

[Skeptic7]

Sadly, much more likely to see 30 or even less before ever seeing 34 again. Shame that 32 seems like a wet dream rate nowadays. 

 

 

[Skeptic7]

January 2016 it was over 36. Short lived it was. Here's the 10 year chart.