CM:What's the effect of the smog on CM Songkran festival?

[FolkGuitar]

2 hours ago, orang37 said:

I find it interesting to think about what segment of possible incoming Songkran tourism visitors (domestic vs. international) would be most likely to not come because of weather/pollution. The richest ? The smartest ?

 

Here's a question; Why don't you and I leave. We have the money to travel. Although we may not be the world's smartest people, we ARE educated. We ARE intelligent. So why do so many like us NOT run off to distant shores? Granted, there are those who are physically unable to leave, but I see the same local farangs every day. Why don't they leave?

[Bill97]

 
Here's a question; Why don't you and I leave. We have the money to travel. Although we may not be the world's smartest people, we ARE educated. We ARE intelligent. So why do so many like us NOT run off to distant shores? Granted, there are those who are physically unable to leave, but I see the same local farangs every day. Why don't they leave?

Kid in school here keeps me here.


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[Vacuum]

21 hours ago, brommers said:

the forecast is for this pollution to last until May

This means that officials will not do anything about it....

[canuckamuck]

A glimmer of hope for Songkran is that the yocals will likely put down their lighters and pick up a water bucket and some lao khao for the Songkran break.

That should result in some better air for the holiday.

[FolkGuitar]

1 hour ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

Here's a question; Why don't you and I leave. We have the money to travel. Although we may not be the world's smartest people, we ARE educated. We ARE intelligent. So why do so many like us NOT run off to distant shores? Granted, there are those who are physically unable to leave, but I see the same local farangs every day. Why don't they leave?

 

47 minutes ago, Bill97 said:

Kid in school here keeps me here.

 

That sort of makes sense... but not really. With no disrespect, think about the message... You would leave because it's not healthy. But because it would interrupt the kid's schooling, it's really not too unhealthy so it's OK to leave them in this environment.

 

Frankly, I agree with your decision. I admit that this air quality is not healthy. Yet at the same time, I don't believe that it is so unhealthy as to require us to relocate for two months every year. When I woke up this morning I couldn't see three blocks away, yet two hours later I can now see four kilometers away. By afternoon I imagine, based on what has been happening every day, I'll be able to see 25 kilometers. Life goes on... oobla dee oobla da!  ????

Edited April 3, 2019 by FolkGuitar

[lipflipper]

This unabetted haze will have a serious impact on tourism by Westerners for sure. The Chinese will still come here in hordes as their air quality is not much better so for them no big deal. If you are a westerner you would have to be brain dead to want to come to Chiang Mai at this time. If you do want to celebrate Songkran like an eff...ing ejit go elsewhere in Thailand where you can breath safely. I am out of here anyway tomorrow for two months as I hate Songkran and I have business in the U.S. to attend to. Next year as soon as I cannot see the mountains from my Condo I am heading to the Ocean in Nha Trang or Hoi Anh in Vietnam.

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[Bill97]

 
That sort of makes sense... but not really. With no disrespect, think about the message... You would leave because it's not healthy. But because it would interrupt the kid's schooling, it's really not too unhealthy so it's OK to leave them in this environment.
[/quote)

No it is not ok in this environment. Considering a number of factors it just seems to be the answer for now. Sorry if you can not see that reaching a compromise after considering a number of factors does in fact make sense.

Your attempt at clever logic ignores your unfounded assumptions.



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[vivid]

Get hold of some kids N95, if your kid is below age 10 then go to the internet and search for this Air+ SMART mask in S size.  It even fits smaller sized asian children down to around age 4-5.  The "M" size fits around 8-10 depending on your kid's size all the way to very small sized adults (eg 1.53m ladies).  Then the L size for 1.6m and up.    In the house, switch on your APs, in 2015 i was operating 9 pcs at lower speeds (for better noise levels), also have more than enough horsepower to maintain levels decently even if i were to keep a window half open to keep CO2 levels down.

 

Yes, you'd need to plan activities depending on the weather ie haze levels.  No play outside unless it gets to orange colour on aqicn.

 

Not the best of environment or convenience, but you and your kids will be fine, really. 

 

Issue is for those who are poor, who can't afford air-conditioning in general, much less air purifiers and those specialised masks which needs to be replaced daily, 2 days if you push it, not because it is plugging but because of the sweat and stuff.  Also, it's really difficult if you don't have air-conditioning in the house, it'll get extremely humid and hot, ramping the heat index "I feel temperatures" to well over 50 deg C.

Edited April 3, 2019 by vivid

[sirmud63]

On 4/2/2019 at 9:20 AM, amexpat said:

Really?  What a soothing thought. I thought the current levels were demolishing all-time records.

nop , march 2015 was alot worse . 

they havent had to close CNX airport yet .

[vivid]

1 hour ago, sirmud63 said:

nop , march 2015 was alot worse . 

they havent had to close CNX airport yet .

That might be due to the minimum visibility, maybe can search the METAR history then and current.  

 

This year, the peaks are a lot worse across many districts and provinces (namely MHS, CR and CM), be it PM10 or PM2.5.   PM10 of > 1000 ug/m3 (for eg 1300+ ug/m3 was the highest i have come across) concentrations were unheard of in 2015.  PM10 of 600 ug/m3 in CR, yes.

 

2015 was a very bad year as well (Super El nino year).   Chiang Mai's highest 24-hr PM10 concentration was 299 ug/m3 (Bangkok Post basing on PCD aqmthai 35 and 36t).

This year, the highest i could find is 24-hr PM10 284 ug/m3 recorded by 35t on 24th Mar 2019.

 

 

So based solely on 24-hr moving average concentrations, 2015 was indeed a bit worse in Chiang Mai city.

But if basing on hourly peaks as well as spot readings or what people base on immediate visibility of how many metres or based on whether they can see a particular landmark near to them or not, it could be a very different story.

 

 

But i also posted just on the last page that 2019 Chiang Rai experienced a worse 24-hr PM10 figure of 400 ug/m3 than 2015.

The previous record was 386 ug/m3 24hr PM10 in 2015, Mar 18 .

Before that was 384 ug/m3 24hr PM10 in 2007, 14th March

 

 

And another important factor is DURATION.   More specifically the duration of the heavy haze period, total number of days where you see the AQI and there are a lot of purple or even brown stations.  I believe this year it might stretch out to be way longer than all the previous years. 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by vivid

[brommers]

To get back to the original question, the evidence is already clear to see, unlike the view from my window.

Air passenger numbers are already down. 

Hotel bookings for Songkran are down by up to 25 points.

Tourism revenue for the period is forecast to be down by 2 billion baht in CM alone.

 

But the PM did pay us a visit!

 

Or rather he didn't meet any real people but instead was helicoptered into Kawila where a hand picked band of tame lackeys were subjected to his rousing oration, and the edifying sight of him staring at a leaf blower. So things are looking up. Or rather they aren't because this morning CM was again world leader in air pollution. Only 6 more days to go before Governor Smokin' Supachai has to deliver. I wait in breathless anticipation, literally.

[vivid]

Actually i'll be very surprised if the current levels can be sustained till Songkran starting next Friday. 

 

This morning, 2 stations peaked at > AQI 999  (i really gotta get down to checking CMU Dustboy which has no limits other than being fixated on aqicn which has a limit of 999).  Wiang Haeng and Mae Sa.

 

 

[orang37]

59 minutes ago, brommers said:

To get back to the original question, the evidence is already clear to see,

 

Thanks, Khun Brommers, for the timely reminder of the topic ????

 

Perhaps because I am disconnected, by choice, from both the tourist scene, and the expat scene here, I do not see as clearly, and continually questioning what others see, and I don't see ...  well, that's an ingrained habit. Given the way that mirrors lie to me, I think that's a wise foolishness.

 

I do find it more valuable to think about what this is, than why that is.

 

cheers, ~o:37;

[khunpa]

6 hours ago, FolkGuitar said:

 

Here's a question; Why don't you and I leave. We have the money to travel. Although we may not be the world's smartest people, we ARE educated. We ARE intelligent. So why do so many like us NOT run off to distant shores? Granted, there are those who are physically unable to leave, but I see the same local farangs every day. Why don't they leave?

Our family have decided to leave CM, if it is as bad next year. Although we love the north, we are not going to risk our health on this. And I doubt very much it will get better.

 

I really feel sad for CM and it’s people. Really a lovely place ruined by greed and stupidity. And same for all other cities in the north.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by khunpa

[FolkGuitar]

 

4 hours ago, Bill97 said:

No it is not ok in this environment. Considering a number of factors it just seems to be the answer for now. Sorry if you can not see that reaching a compromise after considering a number of factors does in fact make sense.

Your attempt at clever logic ignores your unfounded assumptions.

 

I'm not exactly sure why you did it, but either you didn't bother to read what I wrote, or you deliberately left it out so you could argue. Was my 'unfounded assumption' that I agreed with you? Here is the part you ignored or chose to leave out of my quote:

Frankly, I agree with your decision. I admit that this air quality is not healthy. Yet at the same time, I don't believe that it is so unhealthy as to require us to relocate for two months every year.

I would think that an educated reader would realize that I, too, was reaching compromise.

[THAIJAMES]

4 hours ago, vivid said:

I believe this year it might stretch out to be way longer than all the previous years. 

 

This is the key difference.  Before last year the smoke would always disappear at songkran.

I remember a long dry spell about 25 years ago but no pollution in April.

But now not only is the pollution getting worse it's lasting a lot longer.

 

[THAIJAMES]

1 hour ago, khunpa said:

Our family have decided to leave CM, if it is as bad next year.

It's been bad for at least the last 20 years and getting worst. In 10 years you may see some improvement. nothing that the authorities have done in the last few years has shown even at least bit of possibility that they can solve this problem.

Edited April 3, 2019 by THAIJAMES

[earlinclaifornia]

On 4/1/2019 at 8:36 PM, khunpa said:

The Thai people I know here are all pissed off about the smoke. But they also deep down know that nothing will be done, due to useless and incompetent officials.

 

Personally I am leaving Chiang Mai tomorrow with my family and will not return before the smoke is gone. That is also the time when all Thais will quickly forget about the smoke...... until next year, when it all repeats.

 

I'm heading to Bali.

 

[vivid]

Songkran in Chiang Mai looks fun, haven't tried it before.  Don't really like the ones in BKK from what i have seen on youtube.   It'll be really a shame if the levels don't go down to below AQI 200 for the mornings by next Friday or the situation gets worse in the future.   

 

Personally have been to a similar one in Indonesia (Chinese New Year period in late Jan/early Feb) and it's really fun for the adults and my kids alike especially with the hot weather.  Fun enough even the Police, Fire dept and top government officials endorsing it as tourism and company employees in banks etc to join in.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2019 by vivid

[Odysseus123]

Just look at the figures..

 

Denial level...257.4.

Projection level..784.9 and climbing

Displacement ..off the scale (lets kick everyone else but us)

[banagan]

I hope its a financial disaster, they obviously don't care about health implications, hitting them where it hurts, their wallet might wake them up.

[THAIJAMES]

17 minutes ago, banagan said:

I hope its a financial disaster, they obviously don't care about health implications, hitting them where it hurts, their wallet might wake them up.

I'm afraid that the elites in Bangkok may not have enough investments that are affected by the smoke in the North for them to take action.

 

It would take locals to protest and try to get the Bangkok elites to do something. it's happening but on too small of a scale.

 

I wish locals would put as much effort protesting about the smoke and pollution as they did on the judges residences.

 

It shows you where thai people's priorities are

Edited April 11, 2019 by THAIJAMES

[banagan]

40 minutes ago, THAIJAMES said:

I'm afraid that the elites in Bangkok may not have enough investments that are affected by the smoke in the North for them to take action.

 

It would take locals to protest and try to get the Bangkok elites to do something. it's happening but on too small of a scale.

 

I wish locals would put as much effort protesting about the smoke and pollution as they did on the judges residences.

 

It shows you where thai people's priorities are

That's who I'm talking about, locals do nothing. Guess it will take a whole bunch of fatalities or serious financial disaster before they get the finger out. Sabi Sabi ????

[THAIJAMES]

1 hour ago, banagan said:

That's who I'm talking about, locals do nothing. Guess it will take a whole bunch of fatalities or serious financial disaster before they get the finger out. Sabi Sabi ????

I would argue that we already have a bunch of fatalities and serious financial disaster.

 

Local health officials have already said that northern Thailand and Chiang Mai have the highest lung cancer rates in the country and an average of 4 years less lifespan because of the smoke and pollution.

 

But remember those numbers are based on old people having problems now and dying. What about the young people that are having much greater exposure to pollution than their elders ever did?

 

That has to translate into more cancer and even more health problems in the future.

 

These Cancers and health problems are not cheap to treat not to mention the Lost productivity of persons affected.

 

Unfortunately the cost are paid not by the elites but by you and me and the rest of the population.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2019 by THAIJAMES

[Bill97]

....
 
Unfortunately the cost are paid not by the elites but by you and me and the rest of the population.
 

In the long run the elites pay but they don’t get the idea that fixing it now is cost effective. They lack the good sense of the Singapore elites who have done a much better job bringing along the masses to the benefit of all.



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[THAIJAMES]

10 minutes ago, Bill97 said:

 

In the long run the elites pay but they don’t get the idea that fixing it now is cost effective. They lack the good sense of the Singapore elites who have done a much better job bringing along the masses to the benefit of all.



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I agree

[banagan]

15 hours ago, THAIJAMES said:

I would argue that we already have a bunch of fatalities and serious financial disaster.

 

Local health officials have already said that northern Thailand and Chiang Mai have the highest lung cancer rates in the country and an average of 4 years less lifespan because of the smoke and pollution.

 

 

 

 

They have no long term outlook big picture view, Chinese are the same. When I say fatalities, I'm talking along the lines of London's killer smog in 1952.

Unfortunately it will take a catastrophe like this before anything is done.

 

 

 

Edited April 12, 2019 by banagan

[rumak]

On 4/3/2019 at 2:10 PM, orang37 said:

Perhaps because I am disconnected,

perhaps a rare understatement 

Edited April 13, 2019 by rumak

[sammieuk1]

You may miss 2 Songkran's later in your life some will say that's not a bad thing ???? 

[HaleySabai]

On 4/4/2019 at 8:25 AM, vivid said:

Songkran in Chiang Mai looks fun, haven't tried it before.  Don't really like the ones in BKK from what i have seen on youtube.   It'll be really a shame if the levels don't go down to below AQI 200 for the mornings by next Friday or the situation gets worse in the future.

I was in town friday night ,it looked like this year Khaosan Rd. is celebrating Songkran in CM.

My impression is literally no one has the slightest idea or concern about "air quality"....be it Chinese,Thai or Farang.  Let the good times roll !!

 

...meanwhile, with the Fam gone to the village and Im home alone (so sweet),A/C & A/P running full out,fridge full of beer and food.... I'll be getting back to season 3 of a marathon re-run of Breaking Bad!   Cheers ????