The Thai Baht in 2022 – a prediction

[rooster59]

The Thai Baht in 2022 – a prediction

By The Thaiger & The Nation

 

Please note: This is just ONE website’s predictions of the currencies in the future. It should not be taken as a serious representation of the state of the world currencies in 2022.

 

Trying to find a few good numbers amid the bad we thought we’d look forward three years to some of the world’s major currencies and their projected performance against the Thai Baht. Of course these are just predictions, according to longforecast.com (you can check out your currency predictions there).

 

The Economy Forecast Agency (EFA) is specialised on long-range financial market forecasts for corporate clients. We use reliable models for long-term forecasting crude oil prices and precious metals prices, FX rates, interbank interest rates, stock indices and some other macroeconomic indicators. The Economy Forecast Agency is independent from any banks, funds and other market players. We provide with original forecasts based on our unique methodology.

 

Our specialists use mathematical and statistical methods of prediction based on the existing historical data. They take into account the following factors with varying degrees of importance: cyclic recurrence, knowing correlation of market indicators, changes in the availability and attractiveness of the instrument for speculators, electronic and algorithmic trading growth, regulatory intervention degree and frequency of significant events over time.

 

Projecting ourselves into 2022 the news, for people looking for some relief against a strong baht, is that it’s predicted to get stronger, not weaker, against many of the world currencies. Of course there are many, many things that may affect the predictions during the next three years but, for now, the outlook from this currency site, is that the Thai Baht will continue its surge skyward against other currencies.

 

Firstly, the USD vs the THB. Today sitting at 30.67, up a little from last weeks dip at 30.05. At one stage in 2022 it’s predicted to drop to as low as 28.67. Against a weaker USD (compared to the THB), both the British Pound and Australian Dollar are predicted to drop in value against the USD as well. This puts them buying 5-15% less Thai Baht in 2022, according to this data.

 

But the Euro is showing signs, in this three year projection, to holding value against the USD. But that means it will also be dropping in real value against the Thai Baht, although less than some of the other currencies.

 

Other than sorting through the tea leaves or dusting off the crystal ball, this is the best we can do at a stab-in-the-dark as to where the Thai currency might be in three years time.

 

Data from longforecast.com

 

USD v Thai Baht

 

USD v British Pound

 

USD v Australian Dollar

 

USD to Euro

 

Source: https://thethaiger.com/news/business/the-thai-baht-in-2022-a-prediction

 

-- © Copyright The Thaiger 2019-06-30

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[ezzra]

I bought a crystal ball and a pack of tarot cards and i have about the successes in predicting currencies as the above mob...(gosh, they can't even accurately predict tomorrow's weather let alone what will currencies do in 3 years time)...

[Medway]

Absolute rot. No one can possibly predict so far ahead. There are always changing factors which will effect monetary values. There may be a new administration in the White House. Brexit should and will be up and running in the UK. China can’t possibly continue as they are collapse will occur. This is absolute scare mongering and poor journalism at best.

[madmen]

"the USD vs the THB. Today sitting at 30.67, up a little from last weeks dip at 30.05. At one stage in 2022 it’s predicted to drop to as low as 28.67. Against a weaker USD (compared to the THB), both the British Pound and Australian Dollar are predicted to drop in value against the USD as well. This puts them buying 5-15% less Thai Baht in 2022, according to this date"

 

Bang on as the trend continues and all we can do is follow trends regarding the short term future

[onera1961]

My prediction for 2023 is 25/USD, 30 per pound and 14/AUD. Can any person tell me otherwise and tell reasons

[geoffbezoz]

I wonder how a civil war would impact the Baht if it were to happen ?

[taichiplanet]

i predict that an unknown mineral is found in Thailand of which one gram can power a large city for 1 year. Thailand will become immensely rich, so rich that the government will give everyone a free pickup and the price of petrol will be 5 Baht/Litre.

[onera1961]

Absolute rot. No one can possibly predict so far ahead. There are always changing factors which will effect monetary values. There may be a new administration in the White House. Brexit should and will be up and running in the UK. China can’t possibly continue as they are collapse will occur. This is absolute scare mongering and poor journalism at best.

True no one can predict. But corporations pay large salary to people who work on this type of predictions for hedging. So we cannot discard those predictions and immerse ourselves in conspiracy theories only. Nobody will pay a salary to consipiracy theorists. We can only prepare ourself for this type predictions by advanced planning.

Sent from my moto g(7) using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Thaidream]

21 minutes ago, onera1961 said:

My prediction for 2023 is 25/USD, 30 per pound and 14/AUD. Can any person tell me otherwise and tell reasons

A series of military coups with massive instability.  Foreign money starts to leave Thailand in huge amounts.  The Thai Government starts massive intervention in the markets and draws down its foreign reserves. At the same time instability causes a huge drop in foreign tourism. Result is a plunging Baht that settles at  40 to the US; 50 to the Pound and 35 to the Aussie Dollar.

[worgeordie]

13 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

A series of military coups with massive instability.  Foreign money starts to leave Thailand in huge amounts.  The Thai Government starts massive intervention in the markets and draws down its foreign reserves. At the same time instability causes a huge drop in foreign tourism. Result is a plunging Baht that settles at  40 to the US; 50 to the Pound and 35 to the Aussie Dollar.

You don't seem to realise that nothing effects "Teflon Thailand",????

regards Worgeordie

[sammieuk1]

The EX.org rate for the pound is now a sickening 38.88 if your paid in pounds into the bank and have to change there its 38.5 in a never ending cycle of down 30% less in 3 years ????

[Thaidream]

1 hour ago, worgeordie said:

You don't seem to realise that nothing effects "Teflon Thailand",????

You may want to read the history of the "Tom Yum Kung' crisis of the 1996-98 Era when Thailand's economy was on the verge of collapse and the Baht plummeted in value.  Thailand's foreign reserves also collapsed as they tried to keep the Baht from falling-but instead both the Baht and foreign reserves went down like a rocket.

[BestB]

1 minute ago, Thaidream said:

You may want to read the history of the "Tom Yum Kung' crisis of the 1996-98 Era when Thailand's economy was on the verge of collapse and the Baht plummeted in value.  Thailand's foreign reserves also collapsed as they tried to keep the Baht from falling-but instead both the Baht and foreign reserves went down like a rocket.

From memory Thailand was also in a huge debt. This predictions are based on smart governing and Thai economy remaining in its current status quo. 

 

What they have not accounted for is P Prayut and utter ignorance when it comes to economics .

 

this year he is already running budget deficit , which should increase year on year. 

 

His latest attempt at bribing the public by giving away 600 baht to each person is going to put even bigger dent.

 

His idea to fill up the coffers is to go after businesses, not realising that many small operators are barely surviving .

 

To me this is 50/50. If Thailand gets its shit together this predictions may well come true, as US, AU , UK have no chance of turning their economies upside down but if Thailand continues  down the same path as currently , it is highly unlikely for this predictions to come true , if anything totally opposite . 

 

This is of course only my personal opinion 

[Pib]

I've looked at similar long range prediction websites over the last decade.  Most of them had the USD-THB exchange rate dropping significantly and if they had turned out to be accurate the rate would be around 20 baht to the dollar right now.  But they were dead wrong. 

[Pib]

 

Quote

The Economy Forecast Agency (EFA) is specialised on long-range financial market forecasts for corporate clients. We use reliable models for long-term forecasting crude oil prices.....

 

I wonder if the EFA crystal ball accurately (or even got close) to the actual price of oil over the years as shown below?   Answer: of course not...and that's when they switched from using a crystal ball to a Ouija board.

 

[asiamaster]

53 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

You may want to read the history of the "Tom Yum Kung' crisis of the 1996-98 Era when Thailand's economy was on the verge of collapse and the Baht plummeted in value.  Thailand's foreign reserves also collapsed as they tried to keep the Baht from falling-but instead both the Baht and foreign reserves went down like a rocket.

This time is different and it will be more the EU economies that will collapse

[BobBKK]

Many more dinosaurs will be up in smoke before then. If the youth reject the old 'ways' (which i think they might) then Thailand will become a happy place again with a reasonable economy.

[worgeordie]

1 hour ago, Thaidream said:

You may want to read the history of the "Tom Yum Kung' crisis of the 1996-98 Era when Thailand's economy was on the verge of collapse and the Baht plummeted in value.  Thailand's foreign reserves also collapsed as they tried to keep the Baht from falling-but instead both the Baht and foreign reserves went down like a rocket.

No need to read it I was here,OK the THB was devalued,

and it was a good time to buy property,which I did,but

the THB bounced back,and even with another coup,

 which would have affected other countries badly,

Thailand just kept sailing ahead,with the THB been

very strong ,even against major currencies.

 

Then you have the tourist industry,with many bad

reports,about scams,treatment of Farangs,changes

in immigration rules ,etc,etc,tourist still flock in,

 in huge numbers = Teflon Thailand.......for now,anyway.

 

regards Worgeordie

[NCC1701A]

no mention of the great war prophesied by Nostradamus? 

 

[Sydebolle]

Suffocating news; start immediate campaign for Chinese retirees as the farang will leave this country long before that - and don't forget the immigration forms form  TM1 to TM10429 - all in Thai please! 

[Tradewind777]

So how to know the indebtedness of countries vi-a-vis each other, wars, insurrections and swings that cannot be see ahead.

 

Who expected the Greek, Cypriot, Venezuelan economies to react with such force in a short time when they did?

 

Fortunes come and go and forecasting then needs to know what those swings will be before knowing their impact on fiscal positions.

 

Conclusion: impossible to predict as many posters have suggested

[BritManToo]

My prediction, in 2021 a large asteroid will hit the earth killing all life bigger than cockroaches.

No need to worry about the Baht exchange rate or VISA rules!

Edited June 30, 2019 by BritManToo

[RichardColeman]

28 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

My prediction, in 2021 a large asteroid will hit the earth killing all life bigger than cockroaches.

I picked up an insurance leaflet in a Thai hospital that promised cover for both meteorite damage and iceberg damage so some people in thailand may be ok.

[spidermike007]

It all depends on how things go, with the world economy. Trump is a human wrecking ball, when it comes to the world economy, and it's stability. Hopefully he will be gone, and in prison by 2022. 

 

Some are predicting a massive correction. I can see that happening, without intending to sound like a scaremonger. If it does, I could see the DOW dropping to 3,000, and the Nasdaq dropping to around 750. Gold and silver will skyrocket no doubt. Housing prices may drop by as much as 70%, in the US. They are grossly overinflated at the moment. A correction is needed, one can argue. And the dollar will drop precipitously. I could foresee the dollar at 5-10 baht to a dollar, not being an unreasonable prediction. Thailand is far more stable than the US when it comes to outstanding debt, banking policy, and the Fed. Anything could happen. Of course, at these numbers, we would be looking at a world depression, and unemployment in the US at 40% or higher. Who knows? And who knows when or if it will happen. But, it could. And it might. 

[nauseus]

5 hours ago, onera1961 said:

My prediction for 2023 is 25/USD, 30 per pound and 14/AUD. Can any person tell me otherwise and tell reasons

Yes. Otherwise. Same reasoning as yours.

[zebarne]

5 hours ago, onera1961 said:

My prediction for 2023 is 25/USD, 30 per pound and 14/AUD. Can any person tell me otherwise and tell reasons

Pound is the only currency that will definately move up or down when brexit is decided one way or another,but by 2021 i expect thepound to be back to the 45/50 range

 

[pookondee]

18 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

It all depends on how things go, with the world economy. Trump is a human wrecking ball, when it comes to the world economy, and it's stability. Hopefully he will be gone, and in prison by 2022. 

 

Some are predicting a massive correction. I can see that happening, without intending to sound like a scaremonger. If it does, I could see the DOW dropping to 3,000, and the Nasdaq dropping to around 750. Gold and silver will skyrocket no doubt. Housing prices may drop by as much as 70%, in the US. They are grossly overinflated at the moment. A correction is needed, one can argue. And the dollar will drop precipitously. I could foresee the dollar at 5-10 baht to a dollar, not being an unreasonable prediction. Thailand is far more stable than the US when it comes to outstanding debt, banking policy, and the Fed. Anything could happen. Of course, at these numbers, we would be looking at a world depression, and unemployment in the US at 40% or higher. Who knows? And who knows when or if it will happen. But, it could. And it might. 

IMO, every chance of exactly that happening. 

What we do know..

1. Robotics and technology will take more jobs.

2. USA. AUS and nearly all other majour countries will be/are dropping rates. 

3. Real estate values have been propping up economies, but expect big crashes as in the future, the pool of cash buyers able to buy will be miniscule as jobs get scarcer.

 

 

Constantly dropping interest rates will only put the next generation in further debt.

By allowing banks to charge whatever rates they please, in essance they are stealing money off investors (and people who do have money) to fund the debt of the other 70-80% in debt.

In the end it means NO-ONE will have money except for the 1% and thats when economies will really start to crash.

[BritManToo]

8 minutes ago, pookondee said:

. Robotics and technology will take more jobs.

Most jobs these days are government sponsored 'make work' for women anyway.

Robotics won't make any difference to them.

 

It's always been a small number of men that keep civilization running, the lights on and food on the table.

Edited June 30, 2019 by BritManToo

[MartinKal]

The focus is on exchange rates for major currencies to the baht.

But the tables are against the dollar.

No explanation of methods used.

This article is a summer stocking filler, not serious.

[Isaan sailor]

Baht rises another 5%—i predict a complete exodus of expats, western tourists and Thai export industries.  Thailand would become a zombie Chinese servant country